We all know times are tough right now.

我們都知道現在的日子不好過。

We've had almost 300,000 layoffs in tech in 2023, and we're currently at around 60,000 layoffs for this year of 2024.

2023 年，科技行業裁員近 30 萬人，2024 年裁員約 6 萬人。

And it's even worse for the junior developers and those trying to break into the industry.

而對於初級開發人員和那些試圖進入這個行業的人來說，情況就更糟糕了。

You guys have to directly compete against the mids and seniors also looking for work.

你們必須直接與同樣在找工作的中高年級學生競爭。

And if you take a look at Reddit, many of these seniors are actually glad about this purging of newbies and boot campers and the Remember that guy?

如果你在 Reddit 上看一看，許多老年人其實都很高興新手和新兵訓練營成員以及 "還記得那個人嗎？

So what do we do?

那我們該怎麼辦？

Do we give up?

我們要放棄嗎？

Is it time to switch professions?

是時候轉行了嗎？

Is it all over?

一切都結束了嗎？

Oh wait, there's also AI.

哦，等等，還有人工智能。

AI isn't taking our jobs, but it sure is a steaming slice of apple pie for pretty much every tech organization looking to free up menial work or to optimize any process AI plays well with.

人工智能不會搶走我們的飯碗，但對於幾乎所有希望解放瑣碎工作或優化人工智能所擅長的任何流程的科技企業來說，人工智能無疑是一塊熱氣騰騰的蘋果派。

But again, what do we do here?

但是，我們又該怎麼辦呢？

Well, first, we need to think reasonably about it all.

首先，我們需要合理地考慮這一切。

That's what I want to do in this video.

這就是我想在這段視頻中做的事情。

Let's think about the landscape we're in.

讓我們思考一下我們所處的環境。

What do we know we need to be doing?

我們知道我們需要做什麼？

And what can we add to this to give us an edge?

在此基礎上，我們還能做些什麼來增強我們的優勢？

And how can we mute out all the extreme what ifs?

我們怎樣才能消除那些極端的 "如果"？

Here are four things.

這裡有四件事。

Number one, you need to actually make sure you're good at what you do.

首先，你必須確保自己擅長所從事的工作。

The days of check out my skill of building landing pages is over.

看看我構建著陸頁的技巧的時代已經過去了。

AI does that.

人工智能就能做到這一點。

In fact, it can do it from a sketch my eight year old can draw up in five minutes.

事實上，它可以根據我八歲的孩子在五分鐘內畫出的草圖來做。

This economy, it's a skill economy, not a demand economy.

這種經濟是技能經濟，而不是需求經濟。

Lots of supply, low demand.

供應多，需求少。

Employers, they have the advantage.

僱主，他們有優勢。

There's a large pool to choose from.

有一個大型游泳池供您選擇。

They want skilled workers.

他們需要熟練工人。

So you need to be spending your time perfecting your craft.

是以，你需要把時間花在完善自己的技藝上。

If this whole thing has made you sick of coding and you want to do something else, go for it.

如果這整件事讓你厭倦了編碼，想做點別的事情，那就去做吧。

If not, then you need to keep leaning in.

如果沒有，那就需要繼續靠攏。

And this doesn't mean you can't be a great generalist, but whatever your specialty is, or whatever job you're trying to land or shift into, you need to be sure you can really nail down that technology.

這並不意味著你不能成為一名出色的通才，但無論你的專業是什麼，或者你想從事或轉入什麼工作，你都需要確保自己能夠真正掌握這項技術。

This means if you primarily work around react, you should be now consuming the advanced react books.

這意味著，如果你主要圍繞 react 開展工作，你現在就應該閱讀高級 react 書籍。

If you're primarily working around Kubernetes administration, you should now be getting the CKA or the CKS certifications.

如果您主要從事 Kubernetes 管理工作，您現在應該獲得 CKA 或 CKS 認證。

This deeper pursuit will make you more valuable in this economy.

這種更深層次的追求會讓你在這個經濟環境中更有價值。

And when things pick back up, you'll be the expert in that economy.

當經濟回暖時，你將成為該經濟領域的專家。

In addition, now's the time to revisit those computer science fundamentals and DSA concepts that carry over to literally everything you do or will be doing even in an AI future.

此外，現在是重溫計算機科學基礎和 DSA 概念的時候了，這些概念可以應用到你所做的每一件事，甚至在未來的人工智能時代也是如此。

If it's your first time doing so, start with the grokking algorithms book and work through it.

如果您是第一次這樣做，可以從《摸索算法》一書開始學習。

It's a great start.

這是一個很好的開始。

If you're looking to level up your backend skills, I have a great resource for you today in this quick word from our sponsor boot.dev.

如果您想提高您的後臺技能，我今天為您提供了一個很好的資源，它來自我們的贊助商 boot.dev。

Boot.dev is an online resource for learning backend web development from start to finish in the Python and Go programming languages, which are two of the best to learn today, in my opinion.

Boot.dev 是一個在線資源，用於從頭到尾學習 Python 和 Go 編程語言的後端網絡開發，在我看來，這是當今最值得學習的兩種語言。

And it's far from boring as they've RPG, with XP that you can earn, levels, achievements, and quests that you have to complete to get a top spot on their global leaderboard.

這款遊戲並不枯燥乏味，正如他們的 RPG 遊戲一樣，您可以獲得 XP、等級、成就和任務，要想在全球排行榜上名列前茅，您就必須完成這些任務。

In addition, the platform is designed to get you to write a ton of code because that, in shipping products, is the only way to really learn programming.

此外，該平臺旨在讓你編寫大量代碼，因為在航運產品中，這是真正學習編程的唯一途徑。

I think we'd all agree there.

我想我們都同意這一點。

I think we'd all also agree that the other key to success is community.

我想我們都同意，成功的另一個關鍵是社區。

Boot.dev has a very active discord community of students to lend you a hand should you ever get stuck.

Boot.dev 有一個由學生組成的非常活躍的 Discord 社區，如果您遇到困難，他們會向您伸出援手。

And while it's much, much cheaper than any bootcamp out there, they realize that some people can't afford a membership and have made it so all content is free to watch and read in guest mode.

雖然它比任何訓練營都要便宜很多很多，但他們意識到有些人負擔不起會員費，是以所有內容都是免費的，可以在訪客模式下觀看和閱讀。

And then with the paid membership, that unlocks all the hands-on coding, AI assistance, progress tracking, and gamification that makes the content so immersive.

如果成為付費會員，就能獲得所有的編碼實踐、人工智能輔助、進度跟蹤和遊戲化功能，這些功能讓用戶身臨其境。

So click the link down in the description box and use my code here on the screen to get 25% off your first month or even your entire year if you choose the annual plan.

是以，請點擊描述框中的鏈接，然後使用螢幕上的代碼，即可享受首月或全年七五折優惠（如果您選擇年度計劃）。

Now back to the video.

現在回到視頻。

Number two, this economy will turn around.

第二，經濟會好轉。

We just had our first rate cut.

我們剛剛進行了第一次降息。

Our first rate cut.

我們的首次降價。

And there are two more expected by the end of the year.

預計到今年年底，還將有兩部作品問世。

Now there are no immediate results expected here.

現在，我們並不指望立即取得成果。

In fact, historically, it's sometimes been the case that interest rates are cut because it expects economic conditions to worsen.

事實上，從歷史上看，降息有時是因為預期經濟狀況會惡化。

But in general, there will be some relief in this pressure that's balled up in our economy and businesses will feel at liberty to begin spending again or borrowing.

但總的來說，我們的經濟壓力會有所緩解，企業會感到可以重新開始支出或借貸。

They'll be looking to tap into more customer money to grow and growth takes more work or workers.

他們希望利用更多的客戶資金來實現增長，而增長需要更多的工作或工人。

I came across this tweet the other day by a Jesse Tinsley.

前幾天，我看到了傑西-廷斯利（Jesse Tinsley）發的這條推文。

Here's what it says.

它是這麼說的

First, it's layoffs.

首先是裁員。

We've already been through that.

我們已經經歷過了。

Second, unemployment rises, leading to rate cuts.

第二，失業率上升，導致利率下調。

This happened today.

這是今天發生的事。

So this is like a week ago when we had our first rate cut.

這就像一週前我們第一次降息一樣。

Third, recruiting jobs explode in volume.

第三，招聘崗位數量激增。

Next year, given some time for inflation to cool, this could easily happen.

明年，如果通脹有時間降溫，這種情況很容易發生。

Fourth, after recruiters get hired, everyone else does too.

第四，招聘人員被錄用後，其他人也會被錄用。

And then fifth, multi-year hiring sprint.

然後是第五次，多年招聘衝刺。

It's at this point that you would feel pretty stupid having given up on tech.

在這一點上，你會覺得放棄技術是非常愚蠢的。

In addition, you would feel pretty stupid to not be completely on top of your game skill-wise when this does happen.

此外，如果發生這種情況時，你還沒有完全掌握自己的技能，你會覺得自己非常愚蠢。

That's why it's a good time now to get really good at what you do.

這就是為什麼現在是真正做好本職工作的好時機。

No more faking it.

不再裝模作樣

This cycle repeats every five to ten Better buckle up and strap in. 2025, the year of the recruiter.

這種循環每五到十次重複一次，最好繫好安全帶。2025 年，招聘者之年。

Remember, this isn't the first time the tech industry has had a hard time.

請記住，這並不是科技行業第一次遭遇困境。

It's a cycle.

這是一個循環。

It just may be your first cycle.

這可能只是你的第一個週期。

So I think this is a good tweet, though I may be a bit more pessimistic on the word explode, but whatever.

是以，我認為這是一條不錯的推文，雖然我對 "爆炸 "這個詞可能更悲觀一些，但不管怎樣，我都認為這是一條不錯的推文。

But here's the question related to this.

但與此相關的問題是

In the other one, everyone is mulling over.

在另一個世界裡，每個人都在沉思。

Will these new workers needed by companies be in the form of humans, us, or AI solutions?

公司需要的這些新員工是以人類、我們還是人工智能解決方案的形式出現？

If the economy does around and hiring picks back up, will they need us or will they need the AI solutions?

如果經濟好轉，招聘回升，他們是需要我們，還是需要人工智能解決方案？

I think that's the big concern that many people have.

我認為這是許多人最擔心的問題。

And the answer is, we don't know.

答案是，我們不知道。

But what we do know, again, we need to think reasonably along the lines of what we can control.

但我們所知道的，還是要根據我們所能控制的範圍來合理思考。

What we do know is that one, AI is not ready for anything production yet.

我們所知道的是，第一，人工智能還沒有準備好投入生產。

Number two, AI is largely there for menial jobs that people hate to work anyway, like support, data entry, translation, retail checkouts.

第二，人工智能在很大程度上是為人們討厭的瑣碎工作服務的，比如支持、數據錄入、翻譯、零售收銀等。

Again, jobs that people hate to do anyway.

同樣，這些工作無論如何都是人們討厭做的。

And number three, AI can compute well and crunch the numbers better than us, but they can't cover the entire spectrum of what we would call a software developer.

第三，人工智能的計算能力和數字運算能力比我們強，但它們無法涵蓋我們所說的軟件開發人員的全部工作。

This role requires problem solving, soft skills, careful and precise solutions that can't be the product of a potential hallucination.

這個角色需要解決問題的能力、軟技能、謹慎和精確的解決方案，而這些都不可能是潛在幻覺的產物。

There's management of servers, infrastructure, and all things in between.

管理服務器、基礎設施，以及介於兩者之間的所有事物。

This is why software development, IT administration, engineering, whatever you do, is not going anywhere anytime soon.

這就是為什麼軟件開發、IT 管理、工程設計，無論你從事什麼工作，都不會在短期內消失。

What AI can do well is a small fraction of the value that you bring.

人工智能所能做的只是你所帶來的價值的一小部分。

And at the same time, those building landing pages, those who are HTML and CSS experts, or those who aren't willing to put in the extra work needed to be in this field, are the very ones that the AI menial task monster is coming for.

與此同時，那些製作登陸頁面的人，那些 HTML 和 CSS 專家，或者那些不願意在這一領域付出額外努力的人，正是人工智能瑣碎任務怪物的目標。

Number three, try to embrace or at least adopt a positive outlook to a future with AI in it.

第三，努力擁抱或至少以積極的態度看待有人工智能的未來。

I just don't see this thing slowing down.

我就是看不到這東西會慢下來。

And if it doesn't slow down, then we're actually at a pretty big turning point in history, meaning we should not only see AI scooping up the jobs of bank tellers and taking the orders at Wendy's, but we should at the same time be seeing new innovations arising out of it, creating a host of new opportunities and jobs that will of course require the programming, problem solving, and technical skills of software engineers, because everything is software now.

如果人工智能的發展勢頭不減，那麼我們實際上正處在一個相當重要的歷史轉捩點上，這意味著我們不僅會看到人工智能搶走銀行出納員的工作，搶走溫迪餐廳的訂單，同時我們還應該看到新的創新源源不斷地湧現出來，創造出大量新的機會和工作崗位，而這些機會和工作崗位當然需要軟件工程師的編程、解決問題和技術技能，因為現在一切都是軟件。

Remember when Tesla had a recall and they fixed it by raising their suspension a hair and they did so by pushing out an update to everyone's Teslas?

還記得特斯拉發生召回事件時，他們通過提高懸掛系統的高度來解決這個問題，而且是通過向每個人的特斯拉推送更新來實現的嗎？

You didn't have to return anything or Don't be an AI curmudgeon.

你不必歸還任何東西，也不必做人工智能的老頑固。

Learn about it.

瞭解它。

Read the book, The Business Case for AI, and see how businesses are successfully using it in their everyday tasks.

閱讀《人工智能的商業案例》一書，瞭解企業如何在日常工作中成功運用人工智能。

And number four, don't sell yourself short when it comes to your own business value.

第四，在談到自己的商業價值時，不要貶低自己。

I've said repeatedly, you are the business.

我反覆說過，你們就是企業。

You are in the business of creating software for customers.

您的業務是為客戶開發軟件。

Your current job can be seen as your main customer.

您目前的工作可以視為您的主要客戶。

They're hiring you to do some sort of work that you're very good at.

他們僱你來做某種你非常擅長的工作。

Don't stop there though.

但不要就此止步。

What else could you do?

你還能做什麼？

Create a SaaS product and run your own business?

創建 SaaS 產品並經營自己的企業？

Start a consulting gig?

開始諮詢工作？

Offer AI training or AI consulting to companies out there?

為企業提供人工智能培訓或人工智能諮詢？

Developers being out of work has created developers who take matters into their own hands.

開發人員失業，導致開發人員自行其事。

We see so many examples out there of folks building apps and creating businesses out of them, or starting YouTube channels, or partnering with small three-person startups on some new innovative idea.

我們看到了很多這樣的例子：人們創建應用程序並以此為基礎開展業務，或開設 YouTube 頻道，或與三人小型初創公司合作開發一些新的創新理念。

All this is to say things are changing.

綜上所述，事情正在發生變化。

Don't be this curmudgeon who rejects all things new and thinks things will continue in your favor.

不要像老頑固一樣，拒絕一切新事物，認為一切都會對你有利。

We have to work with the things we know.

我們必須利用我們所知道的東西開展工作。

And we know this.

我們知道這一點。

First, take time to practice the craft.

首先，花時間練習手藝。

Get good.

好好幹

Be valuable.

要有價值。

Grow your soft skills.

提高你的軟技能。

Second, realize that the economy will turn around.

其次，要認識到經濟會好轉。

It has to.

必須如此。

It just takes time.

只是需要時間。

And then third, because it takes time, you may as well embrace this new future, seize the opportunity, and change your thinking from an employee to a business owner.

第三，因為這需要時間，你不妨擁抱這一新的未來，抓住機遇，將自己的思維從僱員轉變為企業主。

You are the business.

你就是企業。

The internet is a world of opportunity.

互聯網是一個充滿機遇的世界。

Good luck.

祝你好運

Actually, no.

事實上，沒有。

Let's do a PS.

我們來做一個 PS。

I got a lot of pushback on my past videos when I've tried to advocate for all the endless possibilities out there.

在我過去的視頻中，當我試圖倡導所有無盡的可能性時，我遭到了很多人的反對。

And it's mainly because people think opportunity equals opportunity to be someone's employee.

這主要是因為人們認為有機會就等於有機會成為別人的僱員。

This is so narrow.

這太狹隘了。

When you get out of this narrow thinking and you see the world wide web of opportunity and pair that with your skill of programming, the doors are much wider.

當你跳出這種狹隘的思維模式，看到世界範圍內的機遇，並將其與你的編程技能相結合時，機會之門就會變得更加寬廣。

One example I'll leave you with.

我給你們舉一個例子。

He created a thousand square grid on his site and is renting out each square for a thousand dollars.

他在自己的網站上創建了一個一千平方的方格，每個方格的租金為一千美元。

You pay a thousand and you get a square.

你付一千塊，就能得到一個正方形。

And that square leads people to your site or your product.

而這個廣場會將人們引向您的網站或產品。

It also produces a good backlink.

它還能產生良好的反向鏈接。

Sounds crazy, but it's genius.

聽起來很瘋狂，但卻是天才之舉。

And he's had a handful of sponsors buy up spots already with more to come, I'm sure.

他已經得到了一些贊助商的青睞，我相信未來還會有更多。

That's opportunity.

這就是機會。

You need to find yours.

你需要找到你自己。

If you found this video helpful, give it a like.

如果您覺得這段視頻對您有幫助，請點個贊。