Name: 傑克遜霍爾研討會 美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾的講話 (Jackson Hole Symposium Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks)
Uploaded: 2024-09-30T12:07:20.000Z
Duration: 17 min 43 s

Thank you, and welcome to the first day of sessions for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

謝謝大家，歡迎參加堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行傑克遜霍爾經濟研討會第一天的會議。

My name is Karen Dinan, and I'm going to be your moderator for today's sessions.

我叫凱倫-迪南，是今天會議的主持人。

As you heard last night from Jeff, the topic for the symposium is reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy.

正如你們昨晚從傑夫那裡聽到的，本次研討會的主題是重新評估貨幣政策的有效性和傳導性。

So it's a super important topic, particularly right now.

是以，這是一個超級重要的話題，尤其是現在。

And we've got some great papers lined up for this morning.

今天上午，我們還準備了一些精彩的論文。

We've got two papers, and we also have a panel lined up for that.

我們有兩篇論文，還為此安排了一個小組討論。

But before we get to any of that, I am delighted to say that we have Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell here to deliver opening remarks.

不過，在談這些之前，我很高興地宣佈，美聯儲主席傑伊-鮑威爾將在這裡致開幕詞。

So with that, let me welcome Jay Powell to the podium.

是以，請允許我歡迎傑伊-鮑威爾上臺發言。

Thank you, Karen, and thanks to our hosts from the Kansas City Fed.

謝謝你，凱倫，感謝堪薩斯城聯儲的主持人。

Four and a half years after COVID-19's arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading.

在 COVID-19 出現四年半之後，與大流行病相關的最嚴重的經濟扭曲正在消退。

The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic.

勞動力市場不再過熱，現在的條件也沒有大流行病之前那麼緊張。

Supply constraints have normalized, and the balance of risks to our two mandates has changed.

供應限制已經正常化，我們兩項任務的風險平衡也發生了變化。

Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well-anchored.

我們的目標是在恢復物價穩定的同時，保持強勁的勞動力市場，避免出現失業率急劇上升的情況，而失業率上升正是早先通脹預期不那麼穩定時出現的通貨緊縮的特徵。

While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

雖然任務還沒有完成，但我們已經在實現這一成果方面取得了很大進展。

Today, I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy.

今天，我將首先談談當前的經濟形勢和貨幣政策的未來之路。

I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived, exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation, and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low.

然後，我將轉而討論大流行病發生以來的經濟事件，探討為什麼通貨膨脹率上升到一代人所未見的水準，以及為什麼通貨膨脹率大幅下降，而失業率卻保持在低水平。

So let's begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy.

是以，讓我們從當前形勢和近期政策展望開始。

For much of the past three years, inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal, and labor market conditions were extremely tight.

在過去三年的大部分時間裡，通貨膨脹率遠高於我們 2% 的目標，勞動力市場狀況極為緊張。

The FOMC's primary focus has been on bringing down inflation, and appropriately so.

FOMC 的主要關注點是降低通脹，這樣做是恰當的。

Prior to this episode, most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period.

在此之前，大多數美國人還沒有經歷過持續高通脹的痛苦。

Inflation brought substantial hardship, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials, like food, housing, and transportation.

通貨膨脹帶來了巨大的困難，尤其是那些最無力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品的高昂費用的人。

High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today.

高通脹引發的壓力和不公平感至今揮之不去。

Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand, easing inflationary pressures, and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well-anchored.

我們的限制性貨幣政策有助於恢復總供給和總需求之間的平衡，緩解通脹壓力，並確保通脹預期保持穩定。

Inflation is now much closer to our objective, with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.

目前，通貨膨脹率已大大接近我們的目標，在過去 12 個月中，物價上漲了 2.5%。

After a pause earlier this year, progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed.

今年早些時候，我們在實現 2% 目標方面的進展曾一度停滯，但現在又重新開始了。

My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent.

我越來越相信，通脹率正在以可持續的方式重返 2%。

Turning to employment, in the years just prior to the pandemic, we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions.

關於就業問題，在大流行病爆發前的幾年裡，我們看到了長期強勁的勞動力市場條件可以為社會帶來的巨大利益。

Low unemployment, high participation, historically low racial employment gaps, and with inflation low and stable, healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes.

低失業率、高參與率、種族就業差距處於歷史低位，在低通脹和穩定的情況下，健康的實際工資增長越來越集中在低收入人群中。

Today, the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state.

如今，勞動力市場已從之前的過熱狀態大幅降溫。

The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent, still low by historical standards, but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023.

一年多前，失業率開始上升，目前為 4.3%，按歷史標準來看仍然較低，但比 2023 年初的水準高出近整整一個百分點。

Most of that increase has come over the past six months.

其中大部分增長是在過去六個月中實現的。

So far, rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs, as is typically the case in an economic downturn.

到目前為止，失業率上升並不是經濟衰退時通常出現的大量裁員所致。

Rather, the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring.

相反，這一增長主要反映了工人供應量的大幅增加，以及此前瘋狂招聘步伐的放緩。

Even so, the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.

即便如此，勞動力市場狀況的降溫仍是顯而易見的。

Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year.

就業增長依然穩健，但今年有所放緩。

Job vacancies have fallen, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range.

職位空缺減少，職位空缺與失業率之比恢復到大流行前的水準。

The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 19.

目前，招聘率和辭職率均低於 2018 年和 19 年的水準。

Nominal wage gains have moderated, and all told, labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019, a year when inflation was at its lowest level.

名義工資漲幅有所放緩，總而言之，勞動力市場的狀況已不如 2019 年大流行之前那麼緊張，而這一年的通脹率處於最低水平。

The labor market is also at its lowest level since the pandemic in 2019, a year when inflation ran below 2%.

2019 年，勞動力市場也處於大流行病以來的最低水平，這一年的通脹率低於 2%。

It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon.

勞動力市場似乎不太可能很快成為通脹壓力上升的根源。

We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.

我們不尋求也不歡迎勞動力市場條件進一步降溫。

Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, but the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation.

總體而言，經濟繼續保持穩健增長，但通脹和勞動力市場數據顯示形勢在不斷變化。

And the downside risks to employment have increased.

As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

正如我們在上一次 FOMC 聲明中強調的，我們關注雙重任務兩方面的風險。

The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

前進的方向是明確的，降息的時機和步伐將取決於新的數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險的平衡。

We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.

我們將竭盡所能，在進一步實現物價穩定的同時，為強勁的勞動力市場提供支持。

With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.

只要適當放鬆政策限制，我們就有充分的理由認為，經濟將恢復到 2% 的通脹率，同時保持強勁的勞動力市場。

The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.

目前的政策利率水準為我們應對可能面臨的任何風險提供了充足的空間，包括勞動力市場條件進一步惡化的風險。

So let's now turn to the questions of why inflation rose and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low.

是以，現在讓我們來探討一下為什麼通貨膨脹率會上升，以及為什麼在失業率保持低位的情況下，通貨膨脹率還會大幅下降。

There is a growing body of research on these questions, including Gary Eggerson's work, which we'll shortly discuss, and this is a good time for this discussion.

關於這些問題的研究越來越多，其中包括加里-埃格森（Gary Eggerson）的研究，我們稍後將討論他的研究，現在正是討論的好時機。

It is, of course, too soon to make definitive assessments.

當然，現在做出明確的評估還為時過早。

This period will be analyzed and debated long after we are all gone.

在我們都離開人世之後，人們還會對這一時期進行長時間的分析和討論。

The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world.

COVID-19 大流行的到來迅速導致全球經濟停滯。

It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks.

這是一個充滿不確定性和嚴重下行風險的時代。

As so often happens in times of crisis, Americans adapted and innovated.

正如危機時刻經常發生的那樣，美國人進行了調整和創新。

Governments responded with extraordinary force, especially in the United States.

各國政府，尤其是美國政府，以非凡的力量做出了迴應。

Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act.

At the Fed, we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression.

在美聯儲，我們史無前例地運用我們的權力來穩定金融體系，幫助避免經濟蕭條。

After a historically deep but brief recession, in mid-2020, the economy began to grow again.

在經歷了歷史上嚴重但短暫的衰退之後，2020 年年中，經濟開始恢復增長。

And as the risks of a severe extended downturn receded and as the economy reopened, we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the global financial crisis.

隨著嚴重的長期衰退風險的消退，隨著經濟的重新開放，我們面臨著重演全球金融危機後痛苦而緩慢的復甦的風險。

Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021.

國會在 2020 年底和 2021 年初提供了大量額外的財政支持。

Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021.

2021 年上半年，支出強勁復甦。

And the ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery.

大流行病的持續影響了復甦的模式。

Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services, but pent-up demand, stimulative policies, pandemic changes in work and leisure practices, and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods.

對 COVID 的持續擔憂影響了個人服務支出，但被壓抑的需求、刺激性政策、工作和休閒方式的流行性變化，以及因服務支出受限而產生的額外儲蓄，都促使消費者在商品方面的支出出現了歷史性的激增。

The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions.

大流行病還對供應條件造成了嚴重破壞。

Eight million people left the workforce at its onset.

在金融危機爆發之初，就有 800 萬人離開了工作崗位。

And the size of the labor force was still four million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021.

到 2021 年初，勞動力人數仍比大流行前低 400 萬。

The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023.

勞動力直到 2023 年中期才會恢復到大流行前的趨勢。

Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers, disrupted international trade linkages, and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand.

工人失業、國際貿易聯繫中斷、需求構成和水準發生結構性變化，這些因素共同導致供應鏈癱瘓。

Clearly, this was nothing like the slow recovery after the global financial crisis.

顯然，這與全球金融危機後的緩慢復甦完全不同。

After running below target through 2020, inflation spiked in March and April 2021.

2020 年通脹率一直低於目標值，2021 年 3 月和 4 月通脹率飆升。

The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad-based with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply, such as motor vehicles.

最初爆發的通脹是集中性的，而不是廣泛性的，汽車等緊俏商品的價格漲幅極大。

My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and thus that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response.

我和我的同事們一開始就判斷，這些與大流行病有關的因素不會持續存在，是以，通貨膨脹的突然上升很可能很快就會過去，而不需要貨幣政策作出反應。

In short, that the inflation would be transitory.

簡而言之，通貨膨脹只是暫時的。

Standard thinking has long been that as long as inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation.

長期以來的標準思路是，只要通脹預期保持穩定，中央銀行就可以適當地看待通脹的暫時上升。

The good ship transitory was a crowded one.

這艘 "過境 "的好船是一艘擁擠的船。

With most mainstream analysts and advanced economy central bankers on board,

大多數主流分析師和發達經濟體的中央銀行行長都加入了這一行列、

I think I see some former shipmates out there today.

我想我今天看到了一些以前的船員。

The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly, that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course, and that demand would rotate back from goods to services, bringing inflation down.

當時的共同預期是，供應條件將很快得到改善，需求的快速復甦將結束，需求將從商品轉向服務，從而使通貨膨脹率下降。

For a time, the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis.

有一段時間，數據與過渡假說是一致的。

Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April through September 2021, although progress came slower than expected.

從 2021 年 4 月到 9 月，核心通脹的月度讀數逐月下降，但下降速度低於預期。

The case began to weaken around mid-year, as was reflected in our communications.

正如我們的信函所反映的那樣，這一情況在年中左右開始減弱。

And beginning in October, the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.

而從 10 月份開始，數據嚴重反駁了過渡性假設。

Inflation rose and broadened out from goods to services, and it became clear that high inflation was not transitory and that it would require a strong response if inflation expectations were to remain well-anchored.

通脹率上升並從商品擴大到服務，很明顯，高通脹率不是短暫的，如果要保持良好的通脹預期，就需要採取強有力的應對措施。

We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November.

我們認識到了這一點，並從 11 月開始進行了調整。

Financial conditions began to tighten, and after phasing out our asset purchases, we lifted off in March of 2022.

金融條件開始收緊，在逐步取消資產購買後，我們於 2022 年 3 月取消了資產購買。

By early 2022, headline inflation exceeded 6% and core was above 5%.

到 2022 年初，總體通脹率超過 6%，核心通脹率超過 5%。

Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導致能源和商品價格大幅上漲。

The improvements in supply conditions and the rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected, in part due to further COVID waves in the United States.

供應條件的改善以及需求從商品轉向服務所需的時間比預期要長得多，部分原因是美國出現了更多的 COVID 浪潮。

And COVID continued to disrupt production globally, including through new and extended lockdowns in China.

此外，COVID 還繼續在全球範圍內干擾生產，包括在中國實施新的和更長時間的停產。

Higher rates of inflation were a global phenomenon, reflecting common experiences.

通貨膨脹率上升是一個全球現象，反映了共同的經歷。

Rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices.

商品需求快速增長、供應鏈緊張、勞動力市場緊縮、商品價格急劇上漲。

The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s.

通貨膨脹的全球性與 20 世紀 70 年代以來的任何時期都不同。

Back then, high inflation became entrenched, an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding.

那時，高通脹變得根深蒂固，而這正是我們竭力避免的結果。

字幕列表影片播放

傑克遜霍爾研討會美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾的講話 (Jackson Hole Symposium Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks)

extraordinary

commitment

extremely

pandemic

傑克遜霍爾研討會 美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾的講話 (Jackson Hole Symposium Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks)

extraordinary

commitment

extremely

pandemic

傑克遜霍爾研討會美聯儲主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾的講話 (Jackson Hole Symposium Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks)