How many of you agree that to tackle climate change we should stop burning coal?

有多少人同意，為了應對氣候變化，我們應該停止燒煤？

Raise your hands.

請舉手。

Almost all of you.

幾乎所有人

And how many of you agree that to tackle climate change we should burn capitalism?

有多少人同意，為了應對氣候變化，我們應該燒掉資本主義？

There are a few hands, but not as many.

有幾隻手，但沒有那麼多。

I'm a journalist, and I write about climate solutions.

我是一名記者，我撰寫有關氣候解決方案的文章。

And when I ask this question of people, I get the full range of answers, from those who say that the system that got us into this mess can never get us out of it, to those who say that the only answer is to unleash market forces for the innovations we need.

當我向人們提出這個問題時，我得到了各種各樣的答案，有人說，讓我們陷入困境的制度永遠無法讓我們擺脫困境，也有人說，唯一的答案就是釋放市場力量，實現我們所需要的創新。

But who is right?

但誰是對的呢？

I wanted to find the answer for myself.

我想自己找到答案。

So I started on the rooftop of my childhood home in India.

於是，我從我兒時在印度的家的屋頂開始。

I wanted to get solar panels for my parents.

我想給父母買太陽能電池板。

It took two days to get quotes, two weeks to have those shiny devices up on the roof, ready to capture the sun's energy.

我們花了兩天時間詢價，花了兩週時間把這些閃閃發光的設備安裝在屋頂上，隨時準備捕捉太陽的能量。

The payback was quick.

回報很快。

Electricity bills fell, and my parents have recovered the investment in five years.

電費下降了，我父母在五年內就收回了投資。

For the next 15 years, they can enjoy solar power for free.

在接下來的 15 年裡，他們可以免費享受太陽能。

So what has capitalism got to do with it?

那麼，資本主義與此有關嗎？

Well, India did not invent the technologies that go into solar panels.

太陽能電池板的技術並不是印度發明的。

Even today, India manufactures only a small fraction of what it deploys.

即使在今天，印度製造的產品也只佔其部署產品的一小部分。

And yet, a country with less than 3,000 dollars of income per person per year is able to benefit from what is now one of the world's cheapest sources of energy.

然而，一個人均年收入不足 3 000 美元的國家，卻能受益於目前世界上最廉價的能源之一。

This has happened because profit-seeking companies want to sell all of us more and more solar panels.

之所以出現這種情況，是因為追求利潤的公司希望向我們所有人出售越來越多的太陽能電池板。

But it has happened because governments created that market through subsidies and regulations.

但之所以出現這種情況，是因為政府通過補貼和監管創造了這個市場。

We know the more we build, the cheaper it gets.

我們知道，建得越多，成本就越低。

And it's not just the story of solar.

這不僅僅是太陽能的故事。

Between 2009 and 2019, the price of solar fell 90 percent.

從 2009 年到 2019 年，太陽能價格下降了 90%。

Wind, 70 percent.

風，70%。

Lithium-ion batteries, 85 percent.

鋰離子電池，85%。

This is what I call climate capitalism.

這就是我所說的氣候資本主義。

Climate emergency is forcing governments and businesses to change how capitalism works, to use its forces for creating the solutions we need, rather than making the problem worse.

氣候緊急情況迫使政府和企業改變資本主義的運作方式，利用資本主義的力量來創造我們需要的解決方案，而不是讓問題變得更糟。

And look, it's not happening everywhere or at the pace at which we need.

而且，這種情況並不是到處都在發生，也不是以我們所需要的速度發生。

There are still companies that are profiting from pollution.

仍有公司從汙染中獲利。

However, in country after country, where I've had a chance to report,

然而，在我有機會報道的一個又一個國家、

I found that a combination of people, policy and technology, when they come together, climate solutions do work.

我發現，當人、政策和技術結合在一起時，氣候問題的解決方案確實行之有效。

Now, the primary motivation to deploy these solutions does not have to be tackling climate change.

現在，部署這些解決方案的主要動機不一定是應對氣候變化。

Other pressing issues, such as air pollution or energy security or global competitiveness, can garner even more support.

其他緊迫問題，如空氣汙染、能源安全或全球競爭力，可以獲得更多支持。

How exactly?

具體怎麼做？

Let me tell you the story of Wang Gang.

我來給你們講講王剛的故事。

You've probably never heard of him.

你可能從未聽說過他。

But he has done more for the global rise of electric cars than Elon Musk.

但在全球電動汽車的崛起方面，他比埃隆-馬斯克做得更多。

Wang was born in China.

Wang 出生於中國。

He trained as an auto engineer before moving to Germany and working for Audi.

他曾接受汽車工程師培訓，後前往德國為奧迪工作。

There, he saw the lifestyle that Germans lived and realized that perhaps Chinese people may never be able to experience it.

在那裡，他看到了德國人的生活方式，並意識到中國人也許永遠無法體驗到這種生活方式。

That's because in 2000,

這是因為 2000 年

China burned about one barrel of oil per person per year.

中國每人每年消耗約一桶石油。

Germans burned 12 times as much.

德國人的燃燒量是這一數字的 12 倍。

So he made the case to the Chinese leadership that the country needed to work on an alternative and that he was willing to lead the charge.

是以，他向中國領導層表明，中國需要制定一個替代方案，而他願意上司這項工作。

So he was given a chance to work on a government program.

於是，他獲得了一個在政府項目中工作的機會。

Wang's team, in a period of eight years, built hundreds of electric cars and buses that were used at the Beijing Olympics.

王的團隊用八年時間製造了數百輛電動汽車和公車，並在北京奧運會上使用。

In those same eight years, the country's oil bill ballooned and its cities became globally infamous for air pollution.

在這八年中，該國的石油支出激增，其城市的空氣汙染在全球臭名昭著。

But Wang had shown that an alternative could work.

但是，王曉明已經證明，替代方案是可行的。

If China could scale the manufacturing of electric cars, air pollution would be cut, oil imports would be cut and, most importantly,

如果中國能擴大電動汽車的生產規模，就能減少空氣汙染，減少石油進口，更重要的是，中國還能在全球範圍內推廣電動汽車、

China would create a new industry that could compete with other countries.

中國將創建一個可與其他國家競爭的新產業。

So Wang was made the science minister, and the government started giving out tens of billions of dollars in subsidies for the manufacturing of electric cars and lithium-ion batteries.

於是，王建宙被任命為科學部長，政府開始為電動汽車和鋰離子電池的生產發放數百億美元的補貼。

The government also started putting regulations to make it harder to buy fossil fuel cars.

政府也開始制定法規，加大購買化石燃料汽車的難度。

Even today, if you're in Shanghai and you want to buy a gasoline-powered car, you have to enter a lottery and win it.

即使在今天，如果你在上海想買一輛汽油車，也必須參加抽獎並中獎。

If you want an electric car, you can just go to a showroom and buy one.

如果你想要一輛電動汽車，你可以直接去展廳購買。

The Chinese government provided direction, but it was the practitioners of capitalism that made a small electric car industry into the global giant that it is today.

中國政府指明瞭方向，但正是資本主義的實踐者將一個小型電動汽車產業發展成了今天的全球巨頭。

One of those investors was Warren Buffett.

沃倫-巴菲特就是其中一位投資者。

He invested in a little-known company then called BYD.

他投資了當時名不見經傳的比亞迪公司。

Today, BYD sells more electric cars than Tesla.

如今，比亞迪的電動汽車銷量超過了特斯拉。

Now, you might think what China did cannot be replicated by democracies.

現在，你可能會認為中國的做法無法被民主國家複製。

But as it happens,

但事實如此、

China took inspiration from the paragon of capitalism, the USA.

中國從資本主義的典範--美國--獲得了靈感。

Throughout the previous century, the US has used the instruments of government to redirect investments toward national priorities.

在上個世紀，美國一直在利用政府手段將投資轉向國家優先事項。

Take the semiconductor industry, the reason why California is home to Silicon Valley.

以半導體產業為例，這也是加州成為硅谷的原因所在。

It was created with generous contracts from the Department of Defense.

它是在國防部的慷慨合同下創建的。

It's also a similar case for biotech, for airlines, for the internet.

生物技術、航空公司和互聯網也有類似的情況。

All of them have fingerprints of the government from its birth.

它們從誕生之日起就打上了政府的烙印。

In fact, China's electric vehicle policy is a modified version of California's zero-emissions vehicle mandate.

事實上，中國的電動汽車政策是加州零排放汽車規定的改進版。

That policy was crucial in keeping Tesla afloat by providing subsidies.

這項政策通過提供補貼，對特斯拉的生存起到了至關重要的作用。

That, by the way, is George W. Bush in a hydrogen-powered electric bus in California in 2006.

順便提一下，這是小布什 2006 年在加利福尼亞乘坐的氫動力電動巴士。

But now that China has a lead on all sorts of green technologies, the US is being forced to catch up.

但現在，中國在各種綠色技術方面都處於領先地位，美國不得不迎頭趕上。

The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 is one response.

2022 年通過的《降低通貨膨脹法》就是一種應對措施。

It will see the US government provide hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies towards all kinds of solutions, from green hydrogen to heat pumps.

美國政府將為從綠色氫氣到熱泵等各種解決方案提供數千億美元的補貼。

That will be multiplied by matching private investment.

與此相匹配的私人投資將成倍增加。

But climate capitalism isn't just about putting government subsidies to work.

但是，氣候資本主義並不僅僅是讓政府補貼發揮作用。

That's because the climate crisis is the greatest market failure of all time.

這是因為氣候危機是有史以來最大的市場失靈。

Governments around the world have allowed corporations to pollute for free.

世界各國政府允許企業免費汙染環境。

And all that pollution is causing damages to all of us in the form of climate impacts, health inequalities, dislocation of communities.

所有這些汙染正在以氣候影響、健康不平等、社區失調等形式對我們所有人造成損害。

In some parts of the world, leaders are starting to correct that mistake.

在世界一些地區，領導人開始糾正這一錯誤。

Europe has put a price on pollution and created legally binding targets.

歐洲為汙染定價，並制定了具有法律約束力的目標。

That has helped the continent cut its carbon footprint faster than any other.

這有助於非洲大陸以最快的速度減少碳足跡。

It's also changed how businesses operate in Europe.

它還改變了歐洲企業的營運方式。

The Danish oil and natural gas company was founded in 1972.

這家丹麥石油和天然氣公司成立於 1972 年。

For 40 years, it dug up fossil fuels.

40 年來，它一直在挖掘化石燃料。

Then Denmark adopted a carbon price and a climate law.

隨後，丹麥通過了碳價格和氣候法。

And suddenly, its business model became implausible.

突然之間，它的商業模式變得難以置信。

Today, you know that company as Ørsted.

如今，大家都知道這家公司就是 Ørsted。

It transitioned away from fossil fuels starting in 2009, and it has become the largest developer of offshore wind power.

從 2009 年開始，它就不再使用化石燃料，並已成為最大的海上風電開發商。

This hasn't been a smooth ride.

這一路走來並不順利。

There just aren't as many success stories as the world needs.

只是世界需要的成功案例並不多。

That's because the climate challenge is really complicated.

這是因為氣候挑戰真的很複雜。

India has an ambitious renewables goal, but it's falling behind.

印度有一個雄心勃勃的可再生能源目標，但卻落在後面。

Europe has seen job losses because its carbon price has been too high.

由於碳價格過高，歐洲出現了就業崗位減少的情況。

That has caused some industries to shut down and move to other parts where there isn't a carbon price.

這導致一些行業關閉，並轉移到沒有碳價格的其他地區。

And China's emissions last year rose, despite a record clean energy build-out.

儘管中國的清潔能源建設創下了歷史新高，但去年的排放量仍有所上升。

For climate capitalism to work, governments and businesses need to be flexible.

氣候資本主義要發揮作用，政府和企業就必須靈活變通。

They need to recognize when there are policies that require certainty, but if they're not working, then they must be changed.

他們需要認識到，有些政策需要確定性，但如果這些政策不起作用，就必須改變。

India is now doubling down on solar, with batteries, because it's seeing a rise in electricity demand.

印度現在正加倍努力發展太陽能和蓄電池，因為它看到了電力需求的增長。

Europe has introduced a carbon tariff that's going to put a price on pollution, on imports.

歐洲已經引入了碳關稅，這將為汙染和進口產品定價。

That will level the playing field for domestic industry and stem job losses.

這將為國內工業提供公平的競爭環境，並阻止就業機會的流失。

And some experts think that if China can continue its clean energy build-out at the same pace, its emissions may have peaked last year.

一些專家認為，如果中國能繼續以同樣的速度建設清潔能源，其排放量可能已在去年達到峰值。

Now, what's remarkable is that some businesses are seeing that it's in their self-interest to act on climate change with or without regulations.

現在，難能可貴的是，一些企業認識到，無論有沒有法規，應對氣候變化都符合自身利益。

So far, we've looked at big economy-wide changes.

到目前為止，我們已經研究了整個經濟的重大變化。

Now let's think about something as simple as ice cream.

現在，讓我們來想想冰淇淋這樣簡單的東西。

You would think that during a heat wave, an ice cream maker will turn big profits selling lots and lots of ice cream.

你會認為，在熱浪來襲的時候，冰淇淋製造商會賣很多很多冰淇淋，從而獲得豐厚的利潤。

But heat waves are becoming so extreme that people are choosing to stay at home instead.

但是，熱浪正變得如此極端，以至於人們選擇待在家裡。

At the same time, smallholder farmers that are the supply chain of ice cream makers are seeing their productivity fall.

與此同時，冰淇淋生產商供應鏈上的小農生產率卻在下降。

That's because of intense heat, drought, floods.

這是因為酷熱、乾旱和洪水。

It means the cost of making ice cream is going up.

這意味著製作冰淇淋的成本在上升。

It's a double whammy.

這是雙重打擊。

Lower sales, higher costs.

銷售額下降，成本增加。

Increasingly, businesses are recognizing that there are fewer profits to be made on a planet on fire.

越來越多的企業認識到，在一個 "著火 "的星球上，利潤會越來越少。

So let's go back to that poster.

讓我們回到那張海報上來。

Is the answer to tackle climate change to burn capitalism, not coal?

應對氣候變化的答案是燃燒資本主義，而不是煤炭嗎？

I hope the examples I've shared show that the problem isn't capitalism, but how it's being allowed to run.

我希望我分享的這些例子能夠說明，問題不在於資本主義，而在於如何允許資本主義運行。

We only have a few decades left to get to zero emissions.

我們只有幾十年的時間來實現零排放。

The fastest way to get there is to change capitalism.

最快的方法就是改變資本主義。

How to do it?

怎麼做？

Through a combination of people, policy and technology.

通過人員、政策和技術的結合。

Dedicated people, smarter policies and cheaper technologies.

敬業的人員、更明智的政策和更廉價的技術。

That is how you'll get businesses to focus on the solutions the world needs.

這樣才能讓企業專注於世界需要的解決方案。

That is how people like my parents in India and all of us around the world will get access to those solutions.

這樣，像我父母這樣的印度人和我們全世界的人才能獲得這些解決方案。

And that is how the world will finally stop burning coal and all other fossil fuels.

這樣，世界才能最終停止燃燒煤炭和所有其他化石燃料。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。