As of August 2024, 13.7 percent of prime age men were not working, compared to just 7.2 percent in 1954.

截至 2024 年 8 月，13.7% 的壯年男性沒有工作，而 1954 年這一比例僅為 7.2%。

The long term decline in labor force participation by so-called prime age men is a tremendous worry for our society, for our economy, and probably also for our political system.

所謂壯年男性勞動力參與率的長期下降，是我們的社會、我們的經濟，可能也是我們的政治制度的一個巨大隱憂。

There's a surplus of prime age workers who could be working and aren't.

可以工作但沒有工作的壯年勞動力過剩。

And that's this puzzling problem.

這就是令人費解的問題所在。

The unemployment rate for prime age working men sat at 3.4 percent in August 2024.

2024 年 8 月，壯年工作男性的失業率為 3.4%。

This number primarily includes those who are unemployed and looking for a job.

這個數字主要包括失業和正在找工作的人。

But about 10.5 percent of men in their prime working years, or roughly 6.8 million men nationwide, are neither working nor looking for employment, compared to just 2.5 percent in 1954.

但約有 10.5%的壯年男性（全國約有 680 萬男性）既不工作也不找工作，而 1954 年這一比例僅為 2.5%。

What's surprising is it's not a COVID phenomenon.

令人驚訝的是，這並不是 COVID 的現象。

It's not a recession phenomenon.

這不是經濟衰退的現象。

And for every prime age man who is unemployed and looking for a job, there are more than three, and some years four, who are neither working nor looking for work.

每有一個壯年男子失業並在找工作，就有三個以上的人既不工作也不找工作，有些年份甚至有四個。

So what's driving men out of the workforce?

那麼，是什麼原因導致男性退出勞動力大軍呢？

And if left unchecked, what impact will it have on the U.S. economy?

如果任其發展，會對美國經濟產生什麼影響？

Nearly half of prime age men out of the workforce cited obsolete skills, lack of education and training, poor work record or security issues as a reason preventing them from work.

近一半失業的壯年男性認為，技能過時、缺乏教育和培訓、工作記錄不佳或安全問題是阻礙他們工作的原因。

Education is a very important predictor of a prime age man's odds of being out of the labor force.

教育是預測壯年男子脫離勞動力大軍機率的一個非常重要的指標。

The big impacts are on the non-college educated groups on their ability to enter and stay in the labor market.

對未受過大學教育的群體進入和留在勞動力市場的能力影響最大。

Men who are not college educated leave the workforce at higher rates than men who are.

未受過大學教育的男性離職率高於受過大學教育的男性。

At the same time, fewer younger men have been enrolling in college over the past decade.

與此同時，在過去十年中，越來越少的年輕男性進入大學學習。

If you look at the geography of where the most prime age men out of the labor force are in particular, they tend to be in places that have experienced manufacturing declines.

如果從地理位置上看，脫離勞動力隊伍的壯年男子最多的地方往往是製造業衰退的地方。

They used to graduate with a high school education and have good, stable jobs.

他們曾經高中畢業，擁有穩定的好工作。

They weren't glamorous jobs.

這些工作並不光彩。

They were, you know, automobile factories, sometimes mines, other manufacturing jobs.

它們是，你知道，汽車工廠，有時是礦山，其他製造業工作。

But they were respected, they were stable and they could support a family.

但他們受人尊敬，工作穩定，可以養家餬口。

Since then, due to technology driven growth, a little bit due to Chinese competition, you've had a lot of manufacturing firms and the places where they were located that, you know, that were one horse towns become ghost lands, right?

從那時起，由於技術驅動的增長，再加上中國的競爭，很多製造企業和它們所在的地方，你知道，那些一馬平川的小鎮變成了鬼城，對嗎？

Wages could also be a contributing factor.

工資也可能是一個因素。

Median annual wages for men with a high school diploma have fallen from just over $57,600 in 1973 to $45,000 in 2023, adjusted for inflation.

擁有高中文憑的男性的年薪中位數從 1973 年的略高於 57,600 美元下降到 2023 年的 45,000 美元（根據通貨膨脹率調整）。

At the same time, wages for those with a bachelor's degree or more have increased by about $6,300 during the same period.

與此同時，擁有學士學位或更高學位的人的工資在同一時期增加了約 6,300 美元。

This decline in earnings led to a 44 percent growth in the exit rate of men without a college degree from the workforce between 1980 and 2019.

收入下降導致 1980 年至 2019 年期間，沒有大學文憑的男性勞動力退出率增長了 44%。

I think honestly, status plays more of a role than wages.

老實說，我覺得地位比工資起的作用更大。

As I said before, you had a manufacturing job.

我之前說過，你有一份製造業的工作。

It was respected.

它受到尊重。

You were part of a community, breadwinner for your family.

你是社區的一員，是家庭的支柱。

You had organizations like unions or rotary clubs that surrounded your job and that's gone.

你的工作周圍有工會或旋轉俱樂部等組織，但這些都不復存在了。

In general, men without children are also less likely to participate in the workforce compared to men with children, especially men without education or training after high school.

一般來說，與有子女的男性相比，沒有子女的男性參加工作的可能性也較小，尤其是高中畢業後未受過教育或培訓的男性。

What we have seen is a huge rise in the proportion of prime age men who've never been married and a very, very significant decline in the proportion who are currently married and have kids at home.

我們看到的是，從未結過婚的壯年男性比例大幅上升，而目前已婚並在家中有孩子的男性比例則大幅下降。

And those two trends track closely with the big changes that we've seen about male attachment in the labor force.

這兩種趨勢與我們所看到的男性加入勞動力大軍的巨大變化密切相關。

Correlation isn't always causation, but looking at that correspondence is real important, I think.

相關性不一定就是因果關係，但我認為研究這種對應關係確實很重要。

Meanwhile, 57 percent of the roughly 10 percent of men not looking for work said their physical or mental health was the main reason for not being employed.

與此同時，在大約 10% 的未找到工作的男性中，有 57% 的人表示，他們的身體或精神健康是未就業的主要原因。

With 55 percent citing a disability, serious illness and or receiving disability benefits.

55%的人表示患有殘疾、重病或領取殘疾津貼。

The whole question about the health and the mental health of male workforce dropouts is an extremely important and I think concerning one.

男性勞動力輟學者的健康和心理健康是一個極其重要的問題，我認為也是一個令人擔憂的問題。

Distressing proportion of the men who are out of the workforce say they're using pain medications every day.

在失去工作的男性中，有相當一部分人表示他們每天都在使用止痛藥。

A 2017 research paper estimates that an increase in opioid prescription between 1999 to 2015 led to about 43 percent of the decline in men's labor force participation rate during that period.

據 2017 年的一篇研究論文估計，1999 年至 2015 年間阿片類藥物處方量的增加導致這一時期男性勞動力參與率下降了約 43%。

So then you have to ask, what sort of pain are we talking about?

那麼你要問了，我們說的是什麼樣的痛苦？

Are we talking about physical pain?

我們說的是身體上的疼痛嗎？

Are we talking about metaphysical pain?

我們說的是形而上的痛苦嗎？

There's an enormous amount of depression, mental health challenges that men in this grouping face.

這個群體中的男性面臨著巨大的抑鬱和心理健康挑戰。

Some of this is a chicken and egg question.

這其中有些是雞生蛋還是蛋生雞的問題。

Did you drop out because you were feeling sad or are you sad because you dropped out and you're living on the couch?

你是因為難過才退學的，還是因為退學後住在沙發上而難過？

Unemployment is really terrible for people's well-being.

失業對人們的福祉來說真的很可怕。

Often people adapt to all kinds of negative shocks, losing a kid, being widowed, whatever, and eventually kind of come back.

人們通常會適應各種負面衝擊，如失去孩子、喪偶等，最終會重新振作起來。

But long term unemployment is one of the worst things in terms of that.

但長期失業是最糟糕的情況之一。

So what you have is a kind of scarring effect.

你會產生一種疤痕效應。

And it's worse for men because their identity is much more wrapped up in their role as a worker.

而男性的情況更糟，因為他們的身份更多地被包裹在工人的角色中。

Men's declining workforce participation could potentially leave a lasting impact on the American economy.

男性勞動力參與率的下降可能會對美國經濟造成持久影響。

It means slower growth of the economy, obviously.

這顯然意味著經濟增長放緩。

It means bigger wealth gaps within our society.

這意味著我們社會的貧富差距更大。

It certainly will have an impact on our productivity and probably already is.

它肯定會對我們的生產率產生影響，而且可能已經產生了影響。

The U.S. has been experiencing a severe shortage in labor, still missing 1.7 million Americans from the workforce compared to February 2020.

美國一直存在嚴重的勞動力短缺問題，與 2020 年 2 月相比，仍缺少 170 萬美國勞動力。

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that U.S. GDP could have been $296 to $442 billion higher in 2023 if the country had been able to fill its job vacancies.

據麥肯錫全球研究所估計，美國將在 2010 年達到 1.5 億美元。如果國家能夠填補職位空缺，2023 年的國內生產總值可能會增加 2,960 億至 4,420 億美元。

However, some experts suggest the impacts of men leaving or never entering the workforce could be more sector specific.

不過，一些專家建議，男性離開或從未進入勞動力隊伍所產生的影響可能更多地是針對具體部門的。

You need young men coming in wanting to replace those people going out.

你需要年輕人加入進來，接替那些離開的人。

And so men have primarily been in more manual labor, more blue-skilled and skilled trades.

男性主要從事更多的體力勞動、更多的藍領技能和熟練工種。

If they're older and they're leaving into retirement and there's not as many young men coming in, both because of declining cohort sizes, but moving in a we're going to be losing that sector of productivity.

如果他們年事已高，即將退休，而又沒有那麼多的年輕人加入，這既是由於同齡人數量的減少，也是由於我們將失去這一部門的生產力。

Despite a steep rise in federal funding, the infrastructure sector hasn't been able to find enough workers, with the construction workforce shortage surpassing half a million in 2024.

儘管聯邦資金急劇增加，但基礎設施部門仍無法找到足夠的工人，到 2024 年，建築工人缺口將超過 50 萬。

We are a little concerned about the impact that inflation is going to have and has had on the movement of infrastructure dollars into the actual productive activity.

我們有點擔心通貨膨脹對基礎設施建設資金投入實際生產活動的影響。

Having a shortage of men in construction is going to raise a problem.

建築業缺少人手會帶來問題。

The trend could have a dire sociopolitical impact as well.

這一趨勢還可能帶來可怕的社會政治影響。

It'll get worse in ways that we would not like.

情況會以我們不願意看到的方式變得更糟。

I mean, I think it would lead to more premature deaths.

我的意思是，我認為這會導致更多的人過早死亡。

And but it will also likely lead to radicalization and polarization because this is a frustrated, left behind group with no options.

但這也很可能會導致激進化和兩極分化，因為這是一個沮喪的、被遺棄的群體，他們別無選擇。

There are problems that government can address and problems that government can't address.

有些問題政府可以解決，有些問題政府無法解決。

One of the first functions that beats out policy is economic growth.

戰勝政策的首要功能之一就是經濟增長。

You have a strong economy, you're going to have increased wage structure and it's going to bring people back into the market.

經濟強勁，工資結構就會改善，人們就會重返市場。

More than a quarter of prime age men not looking for work cited insufficient pay as a reason preventing them from work.

在沒有找工作的壯年男性中，超過四分之一的人認為薪酬不足是阻礙他們工作的原因。

And nearly half said competitive pay, salary, compensation and or bonuses was a very important factor when considering whether to enter or return to the workforce.

近一半的人表示，有競爭力的薪酬、工資、補償或獎金是他們考慮是否加入或重返勞動力隊伍的一個非常重要的因素。

For the young, better training, skills training, better post some form of post high school education, encouraging that maybe even subsidizing that.

對年輕人來說，更好的培訓、技能培訓、更好的高中後某種形式的教育、鼓勵甚至補貼。

I think part of the mental youth mental health crisis has to do with what's next.

我認為，青少年心理健康危機的部分原因在於下一步該怎麼辦。

What I'm going to do?

我該怎麼辦？

What am I going to do?

我該怎麼辦？

Are there any stable jobs?

有穩定的工作嗎？

I can't afford college.

我上不起大學。

All those questions all come together.

所有這些問題都集中在一起。

And so models that help them kind of give them a jumpstart can be really effective ways of intervening.

幫助他們啟動的模式是非常有效的干預方式。

They're actually now really promising programs in high schools which teach kids financial literacy.

實際上，他們現在已經在高中開展了非常有前景的項目，教授孩子們金融知識。

They teach them about equitable entrepreneurship.

他們向他們傳授公平創業的知識。

They teach them about how do you foster better mental health as part of the workplace.

他們教他們如何在工作場所促進心理健康。

And it seems to inspire kids to go on to college, right, because they sort of see a pathway where they didn't see it before.

這似乎激發了孩子們上大學的熱情，對吧，因為他們看到了以前看不到的出路。

Twenty nine percent of men out of the labor force said that training and educational programs was another important factor in considering a return to the workforce.

29% 的失業男性表示，培訓和教育計劃是他們考慮重返勞動力市場的另一個重要因素。

Having the type of commitment from the employer to train and retain and offer upward mobility for workers, I think, would be very important.

我認為，僱主承諾培訓和留住工人，並為他們提供向上流動的機會是非常重要的。

Trying to figure out more about career pathways in the labor market and not just the education side.

試圖找出更多關於勞動力市場而不僅僅是教育方面的職業發展途徑。

So how is it that someone moves from first job, next job, the best job?

那麼，一個人是如何從第一份工作，到下一份工作，再到最好的工作的呢？

How do we help people understand and navigate?

我們如何幫助人們理解和導航？

Nearly a quarter of working Americans said they weren't satisfied with their growth opportunities in the workplace, compared to other OECD countries that on average spend 0.1 percent of their GDP on training their workers.

近四分之一的美國在職者表示，他們對自己在工作場所的發展機會不滿意，而其他經合組織國家平均將其國內生產總值的0.1%用於培訓工人。

The U.S. spent only 0.03 percent of their GDP on job training in 2022.

2022 年，美國的就業培訓支出僅佔其國內生產總值的 0.03%。

Older age groups, it's tougher.

年齡越大，情況越糟。

You know, you're probably not going to get these guys to retrain, but you can get there a lot of programs that have largely been pioneered in the UK much more than here.

你知道，你可能無法讓這些人接受再培訓，但你可以在那裡開展很多項目，這些項目在英國的先驅性遠遠超過了這裡。

But we're starting to pick up on them that literally just try and reboot community activities.

但我們開始注意到，他們只是試圖重新啟動社區活動。

They get these isolated people in despair out of their houses.

他們讓這些孤立無援的絕望者走出家門。

It can make a difference.

它能帶來不同。

Social programs like disability benefits spark contentious debate.

殘障人士福利等社會項目引發了爭論。

It's very controversial.

這很有爭議。

People have very strong opinions about this.

人們對此意見很大。

While we don't know why it is happening, we can be pretty clear that the social welfare programs are helping and the disability programs are helping to finance this situation in a way that was never originally intended.

雖然我們不知道為什麼會出現這種情況，但我們可以非常清楚地看到，社會福利計劃正在幫助這種情況，而殘障人士計劃正在以一種從未想過的方式為這種情況提供資金。

A 2018 analysis by the Joint Economic Committee found that 64 percent of prime age men who aren't working were receiving some sort of government assistance.

聯合經濟委員會 2018 年的一項分析發現，64% 沒有工作的壯年男性正在接受某種政府援助。

So the one benefit that they rely heavily on is disability insurance.

他們非常依賴的一項福利就是傷殘保險。

One, because they often are unable to work if they have a physical injury or high levels of addiction or whatever.

其一，因為如果他們身體受傷或有嚴重的毒癮或其他原因，他們往往無法工作。

But it also provides health insurance, which is huge.

但它還提供醫療保險，這一點非常重要。

Very much against the initial intentions of the founders of the program.

這與計劃創始人的初衷大相徑庭。

They've ended up with a perverse situation that too often subsidizes or even incentivizes helplessness and long term dependence.

他們最終導致了一種不正常的局面，這種局面往往補貼甚至鼓勵無助和長期依賴。

If we thought about a system in which we had a work first principle where the incentives were for getting the training and then showing up at the job and then staying at the job, I think we'd be in a lot better place than we are today.

如果我們考慮建立一種制度，奉行工作第一的原則，對接受培訓、到崗工作、堅守崗位的人給予獎勵，我想我們的情況會比現在好得多。

However, some experts remain doubtful about whether altering the benefits program will lead to meaningful results.

然而，一些專家仍然對改變福利計劃是否會帶來有意義的結果表示懷疑。

I think until we deal with a deeper problem of ill health, ill mental health, these guys aren't going to respond to incentives.

我認為，在我們解決更深層次的健康問題和心理健康問題之前，這些人是不會對激勵措施做出迴應的。

Everybody is responsible for their, you know, for their brothers.

每個人都要對自己的兄弟負責。

Everybody's responsible for their neighbors and their friends.

每個人都要對自己的鄰居和朋友負責。

And we ourselves as citizens can help to shine a spotlight on this.

而作為公民，我們自己也可以對此給予關注。

It shouldn't be America's invisible problem.

這不應該是美國的隱形問題。

And the more that we talk about it, the more that we pay attention to it, the closer we get to turning this around.

我們談論得越多，關注得越多，就越能扭轉局面。