The Fed is important to the global economy in so many different ways.

美聯儲在許多不同方面對全球經濟都非常重要。

The U.S. is the sort of the locomotive of the global economy.

美國是全球經濟的火車頭。

Even though other central bankers often say that they don't follow the Fed, they often implicitly have to.

儘管其他央行行長經常說他們不追隨美聯儲，但他們往往暗中不得不追隨美聯儲。

The Fed's leaders see a slowdown coming in the U.S. job market.

美聯儲領導人認為美國就業市場即將放緩。

The time has come for policy to adjust.

現在是調整政策的時候了。

The time has come for policy to adjust is the quote that's been heard around the world.

政策調整的時機已到，這句話傳遍全球。

Those changes can alter how much dollars are worth in the United States and beyond.

這些變化會改變美元在美國國內外的價值。

There's a huge trust factor, and therefore the dollar is seen as the world's reserve currency.

由於存在巨大的信任因素，美元被視為世界儲備貨幣。

So how did the Fed become the world's most powerful central bank, and what do its upcoming decisions mean for the global economy?

那麼，美聯儲是如何成為世界上最強大的中央銀行的，它即將做出的決定對全球經濟又意味著什麼？

The U.S. economy, guided by the Fed, is the largest in the world.

在美聯儲的引導下，美國經濟是世界上最大的經濟體。

The U.S. economy's stature is one of the key drivers of the importance of the Fed, given that the U.S. economy remains one of the largest economies in the world and certainly of late one of the ones that's been fastest growing.

美國經濟的地位是美聯儲重要性的主要驅動因素之一，因為美國經濟仍然是世界上最大的經濟體之一，當然也是近期增長最快的經濟體之一。

A country and its currency doesn't become important and the world's most important currency overnight.

一個國家及其貨幣不會在一夜之間變得重要，成為世界上最重要的貨幣。

The value of the currency depends a lot on the economy.

貨幣的價值在很大程度上取決於經濟。

If the economic conditions are right, there's economic growth in the region, then the currency will also appreciate and do well.

如果經濟條件合適，該地區經濟增長，那麼貨幣也會升值，表現也會很好。

From 2022 to 2023, interest rates controlled by the Fed rose to over 5 percent.

從 2022 年到 2023 年，美聯儲控制的利率升至 5%以上。

Many central banks around the world did the same, making loans more expensive and slowing economic development to halt a global bout of inflation.

世界上許多國家的中央銀行也採取了同樣的做法，提高貸款成本，放緩經濟發展速度，以阻止全球範圍內的通貨膨脹。

Everybody took the elevator on the way up, tightened monetary policy very rapidly.

大家都坐電梯上樓，迅速收緊貨幣政策。

The Fed was at 5.5 percent.

美聯儲的利率為 5.5%。

Other central banks were either close to or slightly lower to the Fed's policy rate, certainly across advanced economies.

其他央行的政策利率要麼接近美聯儲的政策利率，要麼略低於美聯儲的政策利率，當然是在發達經濟體中。

Higher interest rates can increase the value of cash.

較高的利率可以增加現金的價值。

If interest rates are high relative to other countries, the dollar is appreciating.

如果利率相對於其他國家較高，美元就會升值。

Higher interest rates also make it more difficult to receive raises at work.

較高的利率也增加了工作加薪的難度。

This can prevent escalating bouts of inflation that economists call wage price spirals.

這可以防止不斷升級的通貨膨脹，經濟學家稱之為工資價格螺旋。

The Fed has managed the currency for a long period of time in a way that is supportive of a strong dollar. So they will tend to cut off any threat of wage price spirals.

長期以來，美聯儲一直以支持強勢美元的方式管理貨幣。是以，他們傾向於切斷工資價格螺旋式上升的任何威脅。

And they've done that for a long period of time.

他們這樣做已經有很長一段時間了。

The Federal Reserve manages those interest rates based on what they see is happening in the labor markets and inflation.

美聯儲根據他們對勞動力市場和通貨膨脹的看法來管理這些利率。

By the end of summer 2024, signs of an economic slowdown appeared in the U.S., prompting central bankers to consider reductions in interest rates.

到 2024 年夏末，美國出現了經濟放緩的跡象，促使央行行長考慮降低利率。

As the Fed lowers its rate, it's going to get closer to other central banks' interest rates.

隨著美聯儲降低利率，它將更接近其他央行的利率。

Changes to the Fed's interest rate can disrupt stock market trading techniques, too.

美聯儲利率的變化也會擾亂股市交易技巧。

And that's really what we saw in early August, where we had this sudden global market selloff that initially started off of a weaker than expected payroll report in the U.S.

這就是我們在八月初看到的情況，當時全球市場突然大跌，起因是美國的薪資報告弱於預期。

The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.

勞動力市場條件的降溫是顯而易見的。

We still had job growth that was positive.

我們的就業增長仍然是積極的。

We had a slight increase in the unemployment rate.

失業率略有上升。

What happened was that it was weaker than expected.

實際情況是，它比預期的要弱。

The weak labor data led investors to abandon a popular strategy called the carry trade.

疲軟的勞動力數據導致投資者放棄了一種名為套利交易的流行策略。

Here's how it works. You borrow in a currency that is cheaper, undervalued, and then you invest in a higher yielding currency.

具體操作如下。你借入一種價格較低、價值被低估的貨幣，然後投資於一種收益較高的貨幣。

For example, an investor might borrow money in Japanese yen to buy U.S.

例如，投資者可能借入日元購買美國股票。

assets like the 10-year Treasury bond.

資產，如 10 年期國債。

When a carry trade is working well, that means the value of my dollar assets that I've just purchased are appreciating compared with my yen borrowing that I've used to finance the trade. But that strategy can backfire.

當套利交易運作良好時，這意味著我剛剛購買的美元資產的價值與我用來為交易融資的日元借款相比正在升值。但這種策略也可能適得其反。

If the Fed is all of a sudden expected to cut more than people were expecting, that can start to depreciate the dollar.

如果美聯儲的減息預期突然超出人們的預期，美元就會開始貶值。

So if one central bank's cutting interest rates, the Fed, and another central bank is raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan, it leads to a weaker dollar and an depreciation in the yen.

是以，如果一家央行（美聯儲）降低利率，另一家央行（日本央行）提高利率，就會導致美元走軟，日元貶值。

You have this spread, this delta between policy rates that is narrowing.

政策利率之間的利差、差距正在縮小。

The unwinding of those technical positions can actually exacerbate some of the movements in foreign exchange currency.

這些技術性頭寸的平倉實際上會加劇外匯貨幣的某些波動。

So it's not just about sort of a small shift in expectations, but that small shift in expectations can be magnified into a really big move.

是以，這不僅僅是期望值的微小變化，而是期望值的微小變化可以放大為真正的巨大變化。

The Fed's mandate is a U.S.-based mandate.

美聯儲的任務是基於美國的任務。

So the Fed is going to do whatever makes sense for the U.S., but obviously the Fed is also keeping the global economy in mind.

是以，美聯儲將採取一切對美國有意義的措施，但顯然美聯儲也會考慮到全球經濟。

The rate cuts also affect financial conditions in many parts of the world.

降息還影響到世界許多地區的金融狀況。

Why is the Fed followed so broadly internationally, globally?

為什麼美聯儲在全球範圍內受到如此廣泛的關注？

Because the actions of the Fed, Federal Reserve Board, they're not just limited to the

因為美聯儲、聯邦儲備委員會的行動不僅僅侷限於

U.S. They have a spillover effect in other parts of the world also.

它們對世界其他地區也有溢出效應。

There's some saying that when the U.S.

有人說，當美國

sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold.

打噴嚏，新興市場就會感冒。

The tightening of financial conditions, particularly in the U.S., has been one of the major concerns for emerging markets.

金融條件的收緊，尤其是美國金融條件的收緊，一直是新興市場的主要擔憂之一。

If we think we're on the precipice of non-recessionary rate cuts in the U.S., some of those capital flows can start to reverse and that can be a boon for emerging market policymakers. And some countries are dollarized.

如果我們認為美國正處於非衰退性降息的懸崖邊上，一些資本流動就會開始逆轉，這對新興市場的決策者來說可能是個利好。有些國家已經美元化。

So those countries will feel an even bigger impact.

是以，這些國家將感受到更大的影響。

The world's use of dollars gives the Fed some additional influence in times of crisis.

全世界都在使用美元，這讓美聯儲在危機時刻有了一些額外的影響力。

There are strong interlinkages, financial linkages, and in today's very interconnected world, those types of movements occur very rapidly.

在當今這個相互聯繫非常緊密的世界裡，這些類型的運動發生得非常迅速。

The pandemic was a notable example.

大流行病就是一個顯著的例子。

The Fed was sending money to other countries using their so-called swap lines.

美聯儲利用所謂的掉期額度向其他國家輸送資金。

The introduction of the swap lines has really restored dollar funding markets around the world to fairly normal levels of activity.

掉期額度的引入確實使世界各地的美元融資市場恢復到了相當正常的活動水準。

Swap lines are temporary loans sent from one central bank to another.

交換額度是一箇中央銀行向另一箇中央銀行提供的臨時貸款。

For example, the Bank of Japan had $225 billion in outstanding withdrawals from its swap line with the Federal Reserve at a point in 2020.

例如，在 2020 年的某個時間點，日本銀行從與美聯儲的互換額度中提取的未清償款項高達 2 250 億美元。

The Fed provides those loans to a select group of international authorities to ensure that disruptions abroad don't create problems back in the states.

美聯儲向特定的國際機構提供這些貸款，以確保國外的混亂不會在美國國內造成問題。

It's a great tool during periods of financial crisis to know that the Fed is there willing to provide dollars when the global economy needs it.

在金融危機期間，這是一個很好的工具，因為我們知道美聯儲願意在全球經濟需要時提供美元。

In a way, it's an insurance.

從某種程度上說，這是一種保險。

If the ECB needs dollars, what are the options?

如果歐洲央行需要美元，有哪些選擇？

They can go to a swap line or they can sell the U.S.

他們可以去交換線，也可以賣給美國人。

Treasury securities that they own.

它們擁有的國庫證券。

You'd rather not have everybody selling the U.S.

你不希望每個人都賣美國貨吧。

Treasury securities because they need dollars.

國庫券，因為它們需要美元。

You'd rather have some other option available to them like a swap line.

你寧願讓他們有其他選擇，比如交換線路。

The use of swap lines can halt rapid swings in the value of dollars and other currencies. If you look at global foreign reserves, if you look at foreign exchange trades, all of those trades are done mostly in U.S.

使用掉期額度可以阻止美元和其他貨幣價值的快速波動。如果你看看全球外匯存底，如果你看看外匯交易，所有這些交易大部分都是以美元進行的。

dollars. And wherever there is another currency, its share is relatively minimal. When they were used in the pandemic, swap lines were responsible for nearly 20 percent of the increase in the Fed's balance sheet.

美元。而無論在哪裡，只要有另一種貨幣，其所佔份額就相對較小。在大蕭條時期，互換額度佔美聯儲資產負債表增加額的近 20%。

Other economic heavyweights like the European Central Bank and People's Bank of

其他重量級經濟機構，如歐洲中央銀行和中國人民銀行

China offer swap lines, too.

中國也提供交換線路。

China has extended swap lines to about 40 central banks.

中國已向大約 40 家中央銀行提供了互換額度。

But some researchers believe this network is primarily used by countries who have difficulty borrowing in international markets.

但一些研究人員認為，這個網絡主要被那些在國際市場上借貸有困難的國家所利用。

China does have its own swap lines, and it has built a very broad network that is completely in parallel to the dollar system that we all have been relying on for several decades.

中國確實有自己的互換線，而且已經建立了一個非常廣泛的網絡，與我們幾十年來一直依賴的美元體系完全並行不悖。

Swap lines with other countries wouldn't be that effective, but coming from the Fed, it goes a long way.

與其他國家的交換線不會那麼有效，但來自美聯儲的交換線卻能起到很大作用。

Other countries have attempted to avoid the prominent U.S.

其他國家也試圖避開美國的突出表現。

dollar with strategic monetary policies, most notably in China.

美元的戰略性貨幣政策，尤其是在中國。

In every single sector now, we're seeing Chinese companies really compete and win. It's not Nike or Adidas, you know, it's Li Ning and other companies in China. EVs, we know this story, it's BYD, it's not Tesla.

現在，在每一個行業，我們都能看到中國公司在競爭中獲勝。不是耐克或阿迪達斯，而是李寧和其他中國公司。電動汽車，我們知道這個故事，是比亞迪，而不是特斯拉。

The flood of EVs that we see coming out of China is a direct result of the fact that China has become debt saturated and can't use its previous growth model to just increase investment, increase leverage.

我們看到中國湧現出大量電動汽車，其直接原因是中國的債務已經飽和，不能再用以前的增長模式來增加投資、提高槓杆率。

If they're following this growth model, then they have to rely more on exports. At the same time, the other side of the dichotomy is that they want to internationalize the Renminbi.

如果他們遵循這種增長模式，就必須更多地依賴出口。與此同時，二元對立的另一面是，他們希望人民幣國際化。

The Renminbi is also known as the Chinese yuan.

人民幣又稱中國元。

This currency accounts for 4.3 percent of payments made globally.

這種貨幣佔全球支付總額的 4.3%。

That share is rising, but it's far behind the use of dollars or euro, according to the Federal Reserve.

根據美聯儲的數據，這一比例正在上升，但遠遠落後於美元或歐元的使用。

It doesn't take off by itself because China lacks the sort of the natural economic reasons why you would want to sort of hold in that currency.

它不會自己起飛，因為中國缺乏自然的經濟原因，讓你想持有這種貨幣。

But it starts to take off when when the dollar becomes weaponized, as it was against Russia.

但是，當美元被武器化時，它就會開始起飛，就像對俄羅斯那樣。

Another thing I'd say that's happening is this movement towards central bank digital currencies.

我認為正在發生的另一件事，就是央行數字貨幣的動向。

E.U. on is an example of that.

歐盟就是一個例子。

Can any of these replace the dollar?

它們能取代美元嗎？

Certainly not in the near term.

當然，近期不會。

But at the same time, I would say dollar assets used to be somewhere about 70 percent and they've declined from 70 percent in 2000 to now 60 percent. So you see some chipping away happening.

但與此同時，我想說的是，美元資產曾經佔到 70% 左右，而現在已經從 2000 年的 70% 下降到 60%。是以，你會看到一些逐漸消失的現象。

But I always come back to what is the alternative?

但我總是回過頭來想，還有什麼選擇呢？

Who's the heir? And I don't think there is any.

誰是繼承人？我不認為有繼承人

Apparent heir to the throne right now.

現在顯然是王位繼承人。