Name: 他預測了 2016 年的川普、2020 年的拜登，今年他會預測誰成為 2024 美國總統？(He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion)
Uploaded: 2024-09-20T02:53:16.000Z
Duration: 7 min 8 s

There's a lot of hoopla about age these days, but not for me!

現在有很多關於年齡的喧囂，但對我來說不是！

看到那個穿紅衣服的傢伙了嗎？

That's Alan Lichtman, 77-year-old Alan Lichtman, and he's racing in the qualifiers for the Senior Olympics.

這是艾倫-利奇曼，77 歲的艾倫-利奇曼，他正在參加老年奧運會預選賽。

But there's another kind of race Alan's just as qualified for.

但還有一種比賽，艾倫同樣有資格參加。

Alan Lichtman, Professor Alan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984.

艾倫-利奇曼，艾倫-利奇曼教授，自 1984 年以來，他幾乎正確預測了每一次總統大選。

And today, Alan Lichtman's ready to tell us who's going to win in 2024.

今天，艾倫-利奇曼準備告訴我們誰將在2024年獲勝。

You see, you may think Alan's just a jock.

你看，你可能認為艾倫只是個運動員。

Well, I was a steeplechase champion in the 1970s.

我在上世紀 70 年代曾是障礙賽冠軍。

His name is Dr. Alan Lichtman, but he's actually kind of a nerd, a history professor, and a quiz show champion.

他叫艾倫-利奇曼博士，其實是個書呆子、歷史教授和智力競賽冠軍。

These days, he's on a different kind of winning streak.

最近，他又開始了另一種連勝。

To make his presidential predictions, Alan's model ignores the polls and the pundits.

為了預測總統大選，艾倫的模型忽略了民意調查和專家學者。

It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist friend Vladimir Kailas Borak.

它的關鍵在於我與我的地球物理學家朋友弗拉基米爾-凱拉斯-博拉克於 1981 年共同開發的 13 個密鑰。

It's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes before then.

這是根據此前 120 年的總統選舉結果得出的。

Alan's model was one of the few that called it for Trump in 2016.

艾倫的模型是 2016 年為數不多的支持特朗普的模型之一。

The race was tight, but the keys were right.

比賽很激烈，但關鍵是正確的。

So let's get to how these keys actually work.

讓我們來看看這些按鍵究竟是如何工作的。

They are 13 big-picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.

它們是 13 道大局觀、真假難辨的問題，挖掘了白宮黨的實力和表現。

And only two keys have anything to do with the candidates.

But Alan, 2024 is an unprecedented election year.

但是，艾倫，2024 年是史無前例的選舉年。

They are the constant northern star of political prediction.

All right, time to run these keys and find out who will be the next president of the United States, according to Alan.

好了，是時候運行這些按鍵，看看艾倫認為誰會成為下一任美國總統了。

But first, let me change into something a little more comfortable.

但首先，讓我換件舒服點的衣服。

The Democrats did better than expected in 2022, but they still lost House seats, so the key is false.

民主黨在 2022 年的表現好於預期，但他們仍然失去了眾議院席位，所以關鍵在於虛假。

The incumbency key, the sitting president is running for re-election.

Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key.

拜登退出競選，使民主黨失去了這一關鍵。

Wait, you're saying it would have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in?

等等，你是說如果拜登繼續留任，會對民主黨有幫助？

If Biden stayed in, they would have salvaged this one key.

如果拜登留任，他們就能保住這把鑰匙。

Number three, the White House party avoided a primary contest.

The Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris, so the key is true, a true key that moves Harris off the starting block.

民主黨終於變聰明瞭，以壓倒性的優勢團結在副總統哈里斯的身後，所以關鍵是真的，一個把哈里斯從起跑線上移開的真正的關鍵。

Number four, there's no third-party challenger.

RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race, and no other third-party candidate is anywhere close to the 10% polling threshold needed to turn this key.

小肯尼迪已經退出競選，而其他第三方候選人的民調結果也沒有接近10%的門檻，是以無法扭轉這一關鍵局面。

It's true, four keys in, and it's neck and neck.

確實如此，四把鑰匙已經到手，雙方不相上下。

Number five, the short-term economy is strong.

Look, despite all the loose talk about a so-called vibe session, the economy is not in recession, so this key is true.

聽著，儘管人們對所謂的 "振動會議 "議論紛紛，但經濟並沒有衰退，所以這個關鍵點是正確的。

Number six, long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been at least as good as the last two terms.

第六，本屆總統任期內的長期經濟增長至少與前兩屆總統任期一樣好。

Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms, so this key is clearly true.

拜登任期內的增長遠遠超過了前兩屆任期內的增長，是以這個關鍵點顯然是正確的。

Number seven, the White House has made major changes to national policy, rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, the CHIPS bill, the infrastructure bill, the inflation reduction and climate change bill.

第七，白宮對國家政策進行了重大調整，重新加入了關於氣候變化的《巴黎協定》、CHIPS 法案、基礎設施法案、減少通貨膨脹和氣候變化法案。

Number eight, there is no sustained social unrest during the term.

第八，任期內沒有持續的社會動盪。

There have been sporadic protests, but nothing approaching the massive sustained social unrest needed to turn this key, so it's true.

雖然也有零星的抗議活動，但還不至於發生大規模的持續社會動盪來扭轉局面，所以這是真的。

But schools are just going back to session with new protests.

但是，學校剛剛復課，又出現了新的抗議活動。

Yes, there are a lot of protesters upset with Biden's policies in the Middle East, but now with Harris, not Biden, front and center, that has dampened social unrest.

是的，有很多抗議者對拜登在中東的政策感到不滿，但現在是哈里斯而不是拜登站在前臺，這就抑制了社會動盪。

Number nine, the White House is untainted by scandal.

哦，我最喜歡的鑰匙，醜聞鑰匙。

And Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and come up empty, so the key is true.

共和黨人多年來一直試圖將醜聞歸咎於拜登總統，但卻一無所獲，是以關鍵在於事實。

Biden's horrific debate performance, questions about his age, Hunter Biden.

拜登令人恐怖的辯論表現，關於他年齡的問題，亨特-拜登。

There has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member.

對於牽涉到總統本人而非家庭成員的實際腐敗行為，至少要有兩黨的認可。

So two false and seven true so far, looking pretty good for the Democrats.

到目前為止，兩假七真，看來民主黨的情況還不錯。

We have four keys left, all of which would have to be false for Trump to have a path.

我們還剩下四把鑰匙，所有鑰匙都必須是假的，特朗普才有機會。

Number 10, the incumbent party candidate is charismatic.

第 10 項，現任政黨候選人魅力十足。

You have to be a once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate.

你必須是一代人中獨一無二的、具有廣泛啟發性的候選人。

Harris has not met that standard, so this key is false.

哈里斯沒有達到這個標準，所以這個關鍵字是錯誤的。

Number 11, the challenger is uncharismatic.

Some people think Donald Trump is a god, but he only appeals to a narrow base.

有些人認為唐納德-特朗普是神，但他只吸引了一小部分人。

But wait, that means the Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

但等等，這意味著民主黨將守住白宮，卡馬拉-哈里斯將成為下一任美國總統。

We still have two keys left, the foreign policy keys.

我們還剩下兩把鑰匙，外交政策鑰匙。

Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.

外交政策很棘手，這些關鍵點可能會翻轉。

The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.

拜登政府在加沙戰爭中投入巨大，這場戰爭是一場看不到盡頭的人道主義災難。

But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.

但是，即使兩個外交政策關鍵字都是假的，那也意味著只有五個否定關鍵字，這不足以讓唐納德-特朗普重奪白宮。

So I guess that means you're standing by your prediction.

所以我猜這意味著你堅持你的預測。

Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.

卡馬拉-哈里斯將成為下一任美國總統。

At least, that's my prediction for this race.

至少，這是我對這場比賽的預測。

But the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.

但結果取決於你們，所以請出去投票吧。

好吧，我想這場比賽就這麼定了。

Well, I won some medals, I didn't get hurt, and I qualified for the 2025 National Senior Olympics.

我贏得了一些獎牌，沒有受傷，還獲得了 2025 年全國老年奧運會的參賽資格。

對一位 77 歲的老人來說還不錯吧？