Name: ICT 導師計劃核心內容 - 第 10 個月 - 債券交易 - 基礎知識與開盤區間概念 (ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 10 - Bond Trading - Basics & Opening Range Concept)
Uploaded: 2024-09-10T09:38:56.000Z
Duration: 18 min 26 s

Okay folks, welcome back. This is our first lesson in ICT bond trading concepts. Again, we're dealing with commodities, so it's very important that I remind you that I'm not a licensed CTA. This is not trade advice, and everything that's being referred to in this month's content and in these lessons are referred to as a paper trade only. Okay, June 2017,

好了，朋友們，歡迎回來。這是我們學習 ICT 債券交易概念的第一課。同樣，我們正在處理的是大宗商品，所以非常重要的一點是，我要提醒大家，我不是持牌的CTA。這不是交易建議，本月內容和這些課程中提到的所有內容都只被稱為紙面交易。好的，2017 年 6 月、

現在進行式

ICT mentorship, ICT bond trading, lesson one, basics and opening range concept. Okay, when I refer to the treasury bond, what I'm referring to specifically is the 30-year treasury futures contract, and the trade symbol for this is ZB, and it's for the 30-year treasury bond, and the trading session that these concepts I'm going to be teaching this week are primarily used for in analysis on the New York session, and it begins at 820 a.m. to 3 p.m. New York time, and the contract delivery months for the treasury bond 30-year note is March with the delivery contract code of H, June with the contract code month of M, September delivery contract month code U, December delivery code contract month Z, and the format when we use for entering our charts or pulling them up in data, it's the symbol ZB, then the month code, then the last two digits of the trading year. For an example, ZBU17 for September 2017's contract of the 30-year treasury bond. You can see that to the right in this image, treasury bond September contract,

ICT導師，ICT債券交易，第一課，基礎知識和開倉區間概念。好的，當我提到國債時，我具體指的是30年期國債期貨合約，它的交易代碼是ZB，是30年期國債，我本週要講授的這些概念主要用於分析紐約時段的交易時段，從上午8時20分開始到下午3時結束。國債 30 年期票據的合約交割月份為 3 月，交割合約代碼為 H，6 月的合約代碼月份為 M，9 月的交割合約月份代碼為 U，12 月的交割合約代碼月份為 Z，我們在輸入圖表或調出數據時使用的格式是符號 ZB，然後是月份代碼，然後是交易年份的最後兩位數。例如，ZBU1

情態助動詞 A2

ZBU17 at the top. It trades on the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, and it is a futures contract, and you can see the only delivery contract missing here would be the March 2018. The amount per tick minimum fluctuation is $31.25 per contract. A full handle or full figure move equals 32 ticks, or is referred to as 30 seconds. 32 ticks movement equals $1,000 per contract.

頂部是 ZBU17。它在芝加哥期貨交易所交易，是一種期貨合約，你可以看到這裡唯一缺少的交割合約應該是 2018 年 3 月合約。每格最小波動金額為每份合約 31.25 美元。一個完整的手柄或完整的數字移動等於 32 個刻度，或被稱為 30 秒。32 個刻度線的波動相當於每份合約 1000 美元。

Okay, bond opening range concept. Talking about nostalgic things here, folks. These are the things that I cut my teeth on as a commodity trader years and years ago. All right, so when we look at the bond market opening range concept, the highest volume is going to be seen between 8 a.m.

好吧，債券開放範圍概念。夥計們，這裡說的是懷舊的東西。這些都是我多年前做商品交易員時的切身體會。好了，我們來看一下債券市場的開盤區間概念，最高成交量將出現在上午 8 點到下午 5 點之間。

and 930 a.m. New York time. True day for the bond market is 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. New York time. The opening range begins at 8 a.m. New York time and ends 9 a.m. New York time. Narrow your focus. The opening range between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. tends to create the bond market high or low of the day. It can be a run on stops or a fair value setup. In other words, a bullish order block or a bearish order block, or trade down into a liquidity void or fill in a fair value gap. It is also the location for liquidity pools to build around for the stock market opening to be rated. Let's take a look at a couple examples here. We have the Treasury bond for the September delivery contract 2017, and this is a 15-minute candlestick chart, and I have the 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. delineated here.

和紐約時間上午 9 時 30 分。真正的債券市場日為紐約時間上午 8 時至下午 3 時。開盤區間從紐約時間上午 8 點開始，到紐約時間上午 9 點結束。縮小關注範圍。上午 8 點至 9 點之間的開盤區間往往會形成當天債券市場的高點或低點。這可能是止損運行，也可能是公允價值設置。換句話說，看漲訂單區塊或看跌訂單區塊，或向下交易進入流動性空白或填補公平價值缺口。這也是為股市開盤評級而在周圍建立流動性池的位置。讓我們來看幾個例子。我們有 2017 年 9 月交割合約的國債，這是一張 15 分鐘蠟燭圖，我在這裡劃

So in this area, what we look for is the opening range or the high and the low between those two delineations in time. As you can see here, we have a block of price action. This is our opening range.

是以，在這一區域，我們要尋找的是開盤區間或這兩個時間分界線之間的高點和低點。正如你在這裡看到的，我們有一個價格行動區塊。這是我們的開盤區間。

We have our opening range low and our opening range high, and price trades down below the low that was formed between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. This is a stop run and a potential reversal. Notice the highest volume of the day is between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. Notice also on the lower low that was created post 9 a.m. New York time, that lower low was seen with lower volume. So there was massive buying taking place right after 8 a.m., but as price made that lower low, it did not see a large influx of volume. All we're seeing there is a movement towards running initial sell stops for those individuals that were correct, and by buying early, just having their stop loss too close to the marketplace. This is a volume divergence, price making a lower low. That lower low should have been met with a higher bar on volume. This is a sign of impending weakness for the down move, so that means there's no more selling pressure. It's basically a run on stops.

我們有開盤區間的低點和開盤區間的高點，價格跌破了上午 8 點至 9 點之間形成的低點。請注意，紐約時間上午 8 點至 9 點是當天成交量最大的時間段。請注意，在紐約時間上午 9 點之後形成的低點，成交量也較低。是以，上午 8 點後出現了大量買盤，但當價格跌至低點時，並未出現大量成交量湧入。我們所看到的是，那些判斷正確的人開始賣出止損，而那些提前買入的人則止損離市場太近。這是一個量價背離，價格創出了更低的低點。這個較低的低點本應出現一個較高的成交量柱。這是下跌走勢即將轉弱的跡象，是以意味著不會再有賣壓。這基

Price moves higher, finds some support at the opening range as well, opening range high, and finds another opportunity to see price trading higher into the latter portions of the day.

價格走高，在開盤區間也找到一些支撐，開盤區間高點，並找到另一個機會，看到價格在當天後半段走高。

Okay, another example. We have our 8 to 9 a.m. block of price action delineated.

好吧，再舉一個例子。我們劃定了上午 8 點到 9 點的價格走勢區塊。

This is our opening range. Again, our opening range is defined high and low, opening range low.

這是我們的開盤區間。同樣，我們的開盤區間定義為高點和低點，開盤區間低點。

We have a order block, last two down closed candles inside of the opening range and the opening range high. As you see, price trades down into the bullish order block, supported around the notion of the 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. opening range concept, and price rallies away and price rallies away, basis of a bullish order block. Notice as the price makes the higher high going into the 11 o'clock hour, volume was declining as price made a new high at 154.21.

我們有一個訂單區塊，開盤區間和開盤區間高點內的最後兩根下跌封閉蠟燭。如您所見，價格向下進入看漲訂單區塊，在上午 8 點至 9 點的開盤區間概念周圍得到支撐，價格在看漲訂單區塊的基礎上反彈，價格又反彈。請注意，當價格在進入 11 點後創出新高時，成交量在下降，因為價格在 154.21 點創出了新高。

Price makes a subsequent decline back down into the opening range and then goes into consolidation.

價格隨後回落至開盤區間，然後進入盤整。

The volume divergence here was an early sign that the rally up into the 154.21 was a weak move. Therefore, volume precedes price. Weakness was seen after 154.21 had posted.

這裡的量價背離是一個早期信號，表明漲至 154.21 點的反彈是一個疲軟的走勢。是以，成交量先於價格。154.21 公佈後，市場出現疲軟。

Ideally, volume should have had a higher bar on its highest high moving into 154.21.

理想情況下，成交量應在其最高點進入 154.21 點時有一個更高的柱形。

So, now we're working with commodities, we have a more accurate depiction of buying and selling pressure with real volume. The vertical lines down here, the green, blue and dark blue lines are delineations of volume. Okay, another example. We have our 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. delineation, our opening range, opening range low. Inside the opening range, the last down closed candle is a bullish order block. There's two reference points at that order block. We have the initial test here and we have the secondary one. Either one would fit the bill.

是以，現在我們在處理商品時，可以更準確地描述真實成交量帶來的買賣壓力。下面的垂直線，綠色、藍色和深藍色的線都是成交量的劃分。好，再舉一個例子。我們有早上 8 點到 9 點的劃線，我們的開盤區間，開盤區間的低點。在開盤區間內，最後一根下跌收盤的蠟燭線是一個看漲訂單區塊。該訂單區塊有兩個參考點。這裡有初始測試，也有次級測試。任何一個都符合要求。

This is a bullish order block. We expect a rally and notice the largest volume was seen again between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. New York time and price moves up to run into the 154.26 level. But notice at 154.26, look at the high that was formed before 2 p.m. That high, that volume spike there was not seen with a greater volume measuring later on in the day in the evening time. So, when we traded the 154.26, it was done so on light volume but it also reached above with a divergence in volume. It reached above the opening range high. So, it ran the stops above that range and failed to go any higher and traded down and closed in the fair value gap seen at the 154.10 level. So, we have a blending of things that we've already learned about in the Forex portion of this mentorship. But now we're blending other things. So, we have a blending of things with specific commodities. Now, when we look at the opening range for bonds, what I like to do is I like to define the opening range with much like I did the Asian range. I look for the bodies but also incorporate wicks. And then I also incorporate previous highs and lows that are just to the left of 8 to 9 a.m. New York time. Notice that we have the highs formed between 2 a.m. and 12 a.m. to the left of the chart. We have equal highs there just below 154.19.

這是一個看漲訂單區。我們期待反彈，注意在紐約時間上午 8 點至 9 點之間再次出現最大成交量，價格上揚至 154.26 水準。但請注意，154.26 點是下午 2 點前形成的高點。是以，當我們交易 154.26 點時，雖然成交量較小，但也達到了成交量背離的上方。它達到了開盤區間高點之上。是以，它在該區間上方止損，但未能繼續走高，而是向下交易，並在 154.10 水準的公允價值缺口處收盤。是以，我們將在本指導課程的外匯部分已經學到的知識進行了融合。但現在，我們又融合了其他東西。是以，我們將一些東西與特定商品

With that high, I'm going to incorporate the wick in between 8 and 9 a.m. That's why that's being defined there. Notice also that reference point becomes an issue for stop rating later on in the evening during the Asian session time period.

有了這個高點，我將把燈芯納入上午 8 點到 9 點之間。還要注意的是，在亞洲時段晚些時候，參考點會成為止損評級的一個問題。

When we look for opportunities, we're blending kind of like the Asian range perspective in Forex.

當我們尋找機會時，我們就像從亞洲範圍的角度來看待外匯。

We're looking for that same general theme occur with the 8 to 9 a.m. time period in the bond market. Now, I like to see signals form at 8.20 or after. They can occur as early as 8 a.m. and sometimes a little bit before, just like a New York session open at 7 a.m. But I generally prefer to see it occur between 8 a.m. and 8.30. Basically, the target time is 8.20 or CME opening.

我們希望債券市場在上午 8 點到 9 點這段時間也出現同樣的主題。現在，我喜歡看到信號在 8 點 20 分或之後形成。信號最早可能出現在上午 8 點，有時也會稍早一些，就像紐約時段上午 7 點開盤一樣。基本上，目標時間是 8.20 或 CME 開市時間。

See, there's a blending of that time element again. If we know that there's a strong influx of

看，這又是時間元素的融合。如果我們知道有大量的

New York traders coming in at 8.20 New York time, London traders are still awake. They're still on the clock looking to take some trading. If UK traders or European traders want to be participating in the Treasury markets, and it's a very big market. It's not as big as Forex, but it's very liquid. One of the wonderful things about the bond market, it's the least manipulated of all markets. Now, think about that. Remember, I made my career focus in the commodity markets with the bonds. I like the bond market because it had the least in terms of manipulation. You don't get a lot of tomfoolery in that market compared to others. Now, it does not mean that there is a lack of manipulation. It just means on par with all the asset classes.

紐約交易員在紐約時間 8 點 20 分進場，倫敦交易員還沒睡。他們仍在準時交易。如果英國交易商或歐洲交易商想參與國債市場，這是一個非常大的市場。它沒有外匯市場那麼大，但流動性很強。債券市場的一個奇妙之處在於，它是所有市場中被操縱最少的。現在，想想這一點。請記住，我的職業生涯就是專注於商品市場和債券市場。我喜歡債券市場，因為它受到的操縱最少。與其他市場相比，在債券市場上不會有太多的陰謀。現在，這並不意味著缺乏操縱。它只是意味著與所有資產類別相當。

Generally, you see the least with the bond market.

一般來說，債券市場的情況最少。

Now, when we go into FOMC or interest rate based reports or approaching those types of things, the bond market can get a little wonky. It can get a little silly. It can do things that doesn't make any sense. The easiest way to avoid that is simply stay out of that particular asset class ahead of those news events. Once the news event drops, FOMC numbers are released or the announcement or rate decision, anything like that. Non-farm payroll as well, there's nothing sparing the bond market when it comes to NFP. Those environments are still much like I've mentioned in other teachings regarding the Forex. You don't want to be trading in around those environments because it's illiquid. The market is going to gap to wherever the liquidity is, and chances are, it's going to be against your position. It's just better not to be trading at all around those times. If we know out of the commodity markets as a whole, if you want to carve out a career as a one focused market trader, there is a plethora of opportunities for trading the bond market.

現在，當我們進入 FOMC 或基於利率的報告或接近這些類型的東西時，債券市場會變得有點古怪。它會變得有點傻。它會做一些毫無意義的事情。要避免這種情況，最簡單的方法就是在這些新聞事件發生之前，遠離該資產類別。一旦新聞事件發生，如 FOMC 數據公佈、公告或利率決定等。非農數據也是如此，當涉及到非農數據時，沒有什麼能讓債券市場倖免於難。這些環境還是很像我在其他關於外匯的教學中提到的。你不想在這些環境中交易，因為流動性很差。無論流動性在哪裡，市場都會出現缺口，而且很有可能對你的倉位不利。在這種情況下，最好不要進

It's highly liquid. It's really nice when it's trending. When it starts to move in one direction, it generally stays in that direction. When it goes into consolidation, it can be a little choppy, but if you know what you're looking in terms of fair value gaps or turtle soups, using equilibrium ideas, there's certainly no reason why you can't carve out a small little amount of pips or ticks, in this case, for this particular asset. Now, obviously, everyone wants to be a trader for the bond market. They want to capture 32 ticks or a full handle and try to capture $1,000 per contract. This market generally doesn't have a large daily range.

流動性很強。它的趨勢非常好。當它開始朝一個方向移動時，一般會保持在那個方向。當它進入盤整期時，可能會有一些波動，但如果你知道你在尋找什麼公允價值缺口或龜湯，使用平衡的想法，當然沒有理由你不能為這種特定的資產分割出一小點點或刻痕，在這種情況下。很顯然，每個人都想成為債券市場的交易者。他們想捕捉 32 個點或一個完整的手柄，並試圖捕捉每份合約 1000 美元的收益。一般來說，這個市場每天的波動範圍並不大。

If you can capture anywhere between five to eight ticks as the intraday day trade, there's certainly nothing wrong with that. If you can get 1630 seconds, that's $500 per contract.

如果你能在日內交易中捕捉到 5 到 8 個刻度線，這當然沒有問題。如果能獲得 1630 秒，每份合約就是 500 美元。

That's a good day. A large range day is when you get a full handle or 32 ticks or $1,000 per contract.

這是一個好日子。大區間交易日是指每份合約有一個完整手柄或 32 個刻度線或 1,000 美元。

They don't happen all the time, but there can be sustained moves that create that opportunity, but that's not the normal. It's an asset class that allows for low expectations in terms of the daily range. It has respect of liquidity pools, liquidity gaps, fair value gaps. All the things that we taught with Forex, they still occur in this asset class, but you don't see a whole lot of the things like you do in the Forex market, where it can spike down, do some really crazy stuff, and then go right back in the direction you were trading in. Will it run your stop sometimes?

這種情況並不經常發生，但也有可能出現持續的波動，從而創造出這種機會，但這並不正常。這是一個允許對每日波動範圍抱有較低預期的資產類別。它尊重流動性池、流動性缺口和公允價值缺口。我們在外匯市場上學到的所有東西，在這一資產類別中仍然會出現，但你不會看到像外匯市場那樣的情況，它可能會暴漲暴跌，做一些非常瘋狂的事情，然後馬上回到你的交易方向。它有時會觸及你的止損點嗎？

Yes. Will you sometimes see something in the chart and it doesn't materialize and goes the other way? Yes. Will you see order blocks that don't go up, just go sideways? Yes, and reverse head for bearish order blocks. Nothing about this asset class makes it perfect, but if Forex was ever to go into a meltdown or I was unable to trade Forex, I would go back to trading bonds without skipping a beat. It would be no problem at all for me to go back to trading bonds because it's a very good trading market. It can be swing traded, it can be short-term traded, it certainly can be day traded, and when the conditions are right, you can be in positions and hold them for longer term, dare I say it, several months. I've never been able to do that personally, but it can be done because it's like a currency, sometimes it trends very, very well.

是的。有時你會在圖表中看到一些東西，但它並沒有實現，而是走向了另一個方向？會。你會看到不漲反跌的訂單區塊嗎？是的，看跌的訂單區塊會出現反向走勢。這個資產類別沒有什麼是完美的，但如果外匯市場崩潰或我無法交易外匯，我會毫不猶豫地回到債券交易。對我來說，回到債券交易市場完全沒有問題，因為這是一個非常好的交易市場。它可以做波段交易，可以做短線交易，當然也可以做日內交易，如果條件合適，你可以持倉並長期持有，我敢說，可以持有幾個月。我個人從來沒有這樣做過，但這是可以做到的，因為它就像一種貨幣，有時趨勢非常非常好。

Now you have a beginning basis point to start looking at the bond market, and you can pull up barchart.com and look at a 15-minute time frame for one day, pull up the ZBU17, and as we go forward in time, just go to the next month out, and if we go into 2018, you're just going to change the 17 to 18 or whatever the year is, respectively, and you can keep a running journal of what the bond market's doing.

現在，你有了一個開始關注債券市場的起始基點，你可以打開 barchart.com，查看一天中 15 分鐘的時間框架，調出 ZBU17，隨著時間的推移，只需轉到下一個月，如果我們進入 2018 年，你只需分別將 17 改為 18 或其他年份，你就可以記錄債券市場的運行情況。

 Now I'm going to counsel you to do this just as a general daily procedure, even if your intentions are never to day trade or trade the bond market. Say you never want to do it right now. I promise you by looking at it on a day-by-day basis, it will increase your price action skills, it will develop a greater appreciation for this particular asset for commodities, for interest rates, and you're also going to start studying this in relationship to what the dollar's doing, what gold's doing, and the foreign currencies as a whole. So hopefully this has been a good introduction to the bond market and one of the most basic concepts I use when doing analysis on it. In the next lesson, we're going to talk about split session rules.

現在，我要建議你將此作為日常的一般程序來做，即使你從未打算進行日間交易或債券市場交易。就說你現在不想做。我向你保證，通過逐日觀察，你的價格行為技能會得到提高，對商品、利率等特定資產也會有更多的瞭解，你還會開始研究美元走勢、黃金走勢以及外幣整體走勢。希望這是對債券市場的一個很好的介紹，也是我在分析債券市場時使用的最基本概念之一。在下一課中，我們將討論拆分時段規則。