I'm not a pacifist, but in the end, war is the greatest human rights abuse and does not make the world safer.

我不是和平主義者，但歸根結底，戰爭是對人權最大的踐踏，不會讓世界變得更安全。

We think we go to war for good moral reasons.

我們認為我們參戰是出於良好的道德理由。

We're fighting for good to triumph over evil.

我們為正義戰勝邪惡而戰。

Instead, we unleash a cascade of chaos and misery.

相反，我們卻引發了一連串的混亂和痛苦。

In the 21st century, the United States, along with its allies and my country, the United Kingdom, have been involved in four major wars.

在 21 世紀，美國及其盟國和我國聯合王國捲入了四場大規模戰爭。

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Islamic State, and we have provided funding and supplied military equipment to Ukraine and Israel.

阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亞、伊斯蘭國，我們還為烏克蘭和以色列提供資金和軍事裝備。

So let's consider the outcome of some of these wars.

讓我們來看看其中一些戰爭的結果。

The Afghan war was a 20-year war, and we left the Taliban in power.

阿富汗戰爭持續了 20 年，我們讓塔利班掌權。

The war in Iraq, we had an immediate military victory, which was short-lived civil war and contributed to the war in Syria.

在伊拉克戰爭中，我們取得了直接的軍事勝利，但這只是短暫的內戰，並促成了敘利亞戰爭。

The war in Libya unleashed chaos and violence in the Sahel region.

利比亞戰爭在薩赫勒地區引發了混亂和暴力。

The war against Islamic State weakened it militarily, but none of the root causes were dealt with.

打擊 "伊斯蘭國 "的戰爭在軍事上削弱了它的力量，但沒有解決任何根本原因。

All of you in the audience know war is horrendous, but maybe many of you believe that it is inevitable.

在座的各位都知道戰爭是可怕的，但也許你們很多人都認為戰爭是不可避免的。

I would like to persuade you today that there are many things that we can do.

今天我想說服大家，我們可以做很多事情。

Even if we commit to arming countries militarily like porcupines, we can commit ourselves to war prevention, early mediation, and getting into the mind of the enemy.

即使我們承諾像豪豬一樣對各國進行軍事武裝，我們也可以致力於預防戰爭、早期調解和了解敵人的想法。

I direct the Oxford Process.

我負責牛津進程。

It's a conflict resolution organization, and what we try and do is create back channels to the political leadership at the highest levels of those who are in positions of power and can decide the future of the outcome of the war.

這是一個解決衝突的組織，我們嘗試做的是建立通往最高級別政治領導層的後方管道，這些領導層位高權重，可以決定未來戰爭的結果。

I come from a group psychoanalytic background, but I'm passionately committed to putting together the human mind and geopolitics, its power relationships, and what does and doesn't lead to war.

我的專業背景是群體心理分析，但我熱衷於將人類心理與地緣政治、其權力關係以及什麼會導致戰爭，什麼不會導致戰爭結合起來。

We know marginalization, humiliation, and exclusion are some of the key drivers of war.

我們知道，邊緣化、羞辱和排斥是戰爭的一些主要驅動因素。

We also know that war dehumanizes people.

我們還知道，戰爭使人喪失人性。

Some of the conflicts I've worked on are the Palestine-Israel, the Iranian nuclear issue, and now the Russia-Ukraine war.

我參與處理的一些衝突包括巴以衝突、伊朗核問題以及現在的俄烏戰爭。

So what can we do to prevent war?

那麼，我們能做些什麼來防止戰爭呢？

We need to address the security concerns of all sides, not just our own security.

我們需要解決各方的安全關切，而不僅僅是我們自己的安全。

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, and then all of Ukraine in 2022.

俄羅斯於 2014 年入侵克里米亞，然後於 2022 年入侵整個烏克蘭。

It was morally justified for us to support a country whose sovereignty had been breached.

從道義上講，我們有理由支持一個主權遭到侵犯的國家。

But now, hundreds of thousands of people are dead and wounded, and we do have to ask, what else could we have done?

但現在，數十萬人死傷，我們不得不問，我們還能做些什麼？

President Putin warned that if NATO edged up on the Russian border, war would be the result.

普京總統警告說，如果北約逼近俄羅斯邊境，結果將是戰爭。

In 2008, President Bush stated Ukraine would join NATO.

2008 年，布什總統表示烏克蘭將加入北約。

Germany and France pushed back, as they knew it would create a new crisis between Russia and the West.

德國和法國進行了反擊，因為他們知道這將在俄羅斯和西方之間製造新的危機。

Would the US have tolerated a hostile military presence on its border in Mexico and Canada?

美國會容忍在墨西哥和加拿大邊境駐紮敵對軍事力量嗎？

We might have avoided this war if we'd addressed the security concerns both of Russia and Europe, and established a common European security architecture before the war, and it will need to happen afterwards.

如果我們在戰前就解決了俄羅斯和歐洲的安全關切，並建立了歐洲共同安全架構，我們或許就能避免這場戰爭。

Western governments could have played more of a mediating role, supporting Ukraine to be a bridge between East and West, not just encouraging Ukraine into our zone of interest.

西方政府本可以更多地發揮調解作用，支持烏克蘭成為東西方之間的橋樑，而不僅僅是鼓勵烏克蘭進入我們的利益區。

Ukraine has difficult geography.

烏克蘭地理環境複雜。

It will always need to find a way to co-exist with its Russian neighbour.

它始終需要找到一種與俄羅斯鄰國共存的方式。

What else could we do?

我們還能做什麼？

We need to come off our moral pedestal and stop deciding what is good and evil.

我們需要從道德的神壇上走下來，停止決定什麼是善，什麼是惡。

We need to talk to the bad guys, the men of violence, if we are to end war.

如果我們要結束戰爭，就必須與壞人、暴力分子對話。

We understood we had to talk to the IRA in Northern Ireland, VARC in Colombia, and ETA in the Basque country.

我們明白，我們必須與北愛爾蘭的愛爾蘭共和軍、哥倫比亞的 VARC 以及巴斯克地區的埃塔進行對話。

But usually we want to speak to the good guys, the people like us, the people in grey suits.

但通常我們想和好人、和我們一樣的人、穿灰色西裝的人說話。

Back in 2001, after the Afghan war, and as part of the bond peace process, if we had brought the Taliban in when they were weaker, things may have looked different.

早在 2001 年，阿富汗戰爭結束後，作為債券和平進程的一部分，如果我們在塔利班比較弱小的時候把他們拉攏過來，情況可能會有所不同。

Western governments, including the US and the UK, refused to talk to President Assad.

包括美國和英國在內的西方政府拒絕與阿薩德總統對話。

They said it was talking to evil.

他們說，它在與邪惡對話。

By not talking to him, we created a greater evil, as thousands and thousands more people died.

不與他對話，我們就製造了更大的罪惡，成千上萬的人是以喪生。

Today, many of you will have the Ukraine-Russia war and Hamas-Israel on your minds and what can be done.

今天，你們中的許多人都會想到烏克蘭與俄羅斯的戰爭和哈馬斯與以色列的戰爭，以及可以做些什麼。

This is the work Oxford Process does, quietly behind the scenes, to explore whether there are opportunities to end war.

這就是牛津進程在幕後默默開展的工作，探索是否有機會結束戰爭。

But it requires the blessings of Western governments, and they often don't have an exit plan.

但這需要西方政府的支持，而且他們往往沒有退出計劃。

To end the war in Ukraine, we will need to talk to President Putin.

要結束烏克蘭的戰爭，我們需要與普京總統對話。

We will need to understand his red lines, what his end game is, what opportunities there are for a ceasefire.

我們需要了解他的紅線、他的最終目的以及停火的機會。

After the heinous massacre of 7-11, engaging with Hamas is unthinkable.

在令人髮指的 7-11 大屠殺之後，與哈馬斯接觸是不可想象的。

To many Israelis, following the terrible carnage in Gaza, Hamas has even more support and will need to be included in some kind of future process.

對許多以色列人來說，在加沙發生可怕的大屠殺之後，哈馬斯得到了更多的支持，需要被納入某種未來進程。

Now both sides have dehumanised each other.

現在，雙方都把對方非人化了。

One way through is the release of Marwan prison.

釋放馬爾萬監獄是一條出路。

He supports a future of Palestinian states sitting side by side with Israel, and he has the leadership qualities to unite the Palestinian people, which will be essential.

他支持巴勒斯坦國與以色列毗鄰共存的未來，他具有團結巴勒斯坦人民的上司才能，這一點至關重要。

For some, he's the new Mandela.

對一些人來說，他是新的曼德拉。

For others, he has blood on his hands.

對其他人來說，他的雙手沾滿了鮮血。

In war, everybody has blood on their hands.

在戰爭中，每個人的手上都沾滿了鮮血。

The Americans are now talking about two-state solution, which would involve normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

美國人現在正在談論兩國解決方案，這將涉及沙特阿拉伯和以色列之間的關係正常化。

And yet again, we cannot just speak to our friends and exclude our enemies.

同樣，我們不能只對朋友說話，而把敵人排除在外。

And Iran and its allies will only sabotage the process.

而伊朗及其盟友只會破壞這一進程。

Each one of you here today wants to make a difference.

今天在座的每一位都希望有所作為。

But we can feel small and impotent in the face of war.

但在戰爭面前，我們會感到自己的渺小和無能。

But how we behave individually is a microcosm of how we behave in war.

但我們個人的行為方式是我們在戰爭中行為方式的縮影。

None of us like to engage with people who think differently to us.

我們都不喜歡與想法與我們不同的人打交道。

We all divide the world into good and evil, people we want to talk to and people we don't.

我們都把世界分為善與惡，我們想與之交談的人與我們不想交談的人。

But we need to engage with everybody and understand the radical differences that exist between us.

但我們需要與每個人接觸，瞭解我們之間存在的巨大差異。

And we need to start today.

我們需要從今天開始。

What else can we do?

我們還能做什麼？

We need to act early and put in place early mediating processes.

我們需要及早行動，及早制定調解程序。

In war, there's an opportunity for mediation in some wars, when the parties are on the precipice and they're more open to compromise.

在戰爭中，當雙方處於懸崖邊上，更願意妥協時，有些戰爭就有調解的機會。

Then there's a second opportunity when they've tested their have not achieved their original objectives.

然後，當他們測試後沒有達到最初的目標時，就會有第二次機會。

When these opportunities are missed, the parties become hardened by the horrors and trauma of war.

一旦錯失這些機會，各方就會因戰爭的恐怖和創傷而變得更加堅強。

They believe they have sacrificed too much to compromise and make peace.

他們認為，為了妥協與和平，他們已經犧牲了太多。

So what can we do to make these ideas real?

那麼，我們怎樣才能讓這些想法變成現實呢？

Today, the UN is a weakened institution and many have lost faith in it.

今天，聯合國是一個被削弱的機構，許多人對它失去了信心。

But if we're to be serious about peacemaking, we will need to strengthen it again.

但是，如果我們要認真建立和平，就需要再次加強和平。

One way through is to empower the UN to have statutory early mediation when countries are on the edge of tipping to war and then three months later when they've tested their battlefield strength.

方法之一是賦予聯合國權力，在國家處於戰爭邊緣時進行法定的早期調解，三個月後，當他們測試了戰場實力後再進行調解。

The UN would also appoint permanent war prevention teams embedded in the countries at risk of going to war.

聯合國還將任命永久性的戰爭預防小組，駐紮在可能爆發戰爭的國家。

High level mediators and permanent peace tables.

高級調解員和常設和平談判會議。

We would establish them in such areas as Sudan, Pakistan, India, Taiwan, China, Palestine, Israel, the US, China.

我們將在蘇丹、巴基斯坦、印度、臺灣、中國、巴勒斯坦、以色列、美國、中國等地區建立這些機構。

We would be committed to prevention and early intervention.

我們將致力於預防和早期干預。

So in conclusion, liberal democracies should see themselves first and foremost as mediators and bridge builders and help countries manage their radical differences.

是以，總而言之，自由民主國家應首先將自己視為調解人和橋樑建設者，幫助各國處理激進的分歧。

Not the world's self-appointed policeman or supplier of weapons.

而不是自封為世界警察或武器供應商。

Instead of providing drones and missiles, we could contribute more resources and expertise to mediation and peacemaking.

與其提供無人機和飛彈，我們可以為調解和建立和平貢獻更多的資源和專業知識。

We would put all our passions and pragmatism into avoiding war.

我們將把全部熱情和務實精神投入到避免戰爭中去。

War is like a cancer.

戰爭就像癌症。

It spreads quickly.

它傳播得很快。

Once it's progressed far enough, nobody knows how to stop it.

一旦發展到一定程度，誰也不知道如何阻止它。

Treat it quickly, even prevent it.

迅速治療，甚至預防。

Millions of lives can be saved.

可以拯救數百萬人的生命。

We behave as if war is inevitable.

我們的行為彷彿戰爭不可避免。

It is not.

事實並非如此。

Thank you, my friends.

謝謝你們，我的朋友們。