Name: 儘管泰國長期不穩定，但它能否重塑亞洲？ (Could Thailand Reshape Asia Despite Its Chronic Instability?)
Uploaded: 2024-08-29T03:19:38.000Z
Duration: 15 min 16 s

Thailand is one of the most important economic players in Southeast Asia.

泰國是東南亞最重要的經濟參與者之一。

情態副詞

Not only is it one of the outright largest economies in the region, but it's also an essential provider of some of the world's most essential, yet underappreciated goods.

它不僅是該地區最大的經濟體之一，也是世界上一些最基本但卻不被重視的商品的重要供應者。

It's strategically located along the busiest trade routes in the world, and it's become a surprisingly popular center for a new age of labor that's bucking the trend of global migration.

它位於世界上最繁忙的貿易路線沿線，地理位置優越，已成為一個令人驚訝的新時代勞動力中心，與全球移民趨勢背道而馳。

But the truly remarkable thing about Thailand is that it's still growing.

但泰國真正了不起的地方在於，它仍在不斷髮展壯大。

Now for a developing and industrializing economy this may not sound too surprising, however there are a lot of economies in the world today that should be highly successful because of endowments in natural resources, large labor forces, great geographic positions, or just because they have major industries that still aren't.

對於一個發展中的工業化經濟體來說，這聽起來似乎並不太令人吃驚，但當今世界上有許多經濟體本應因自然資源豐富、勞動力眾多、地理位置優越或擁有主要產業而取得巨大成功，但它們卻沒有做到這一點。

Thailand on the other hand has been one of the most politically unstable countries on the planet.

另一方面，泰國一直是全球政治最不穩定的國家之一。

Over the last century the small country has averaged about 2 military coups every 10 years.

在過去的一個世紀裡，這個小國平均每 10 年就會發生兩次軍事政變。

It's government has been couped more times than it's been peacefully re-elected, which makes managing economic affairs difficult to say the least.

它的政府被政變的次數比和平改選的次數還多，這至少可以說給經濟事務的管理帶來了困難。

Beyond this the country was one of the most heavily impacted regional economies by the recent financial crisis, the GFC, and the covid pandemic, but it's overall growth outlook is still relatively positive.

除此之外，該國還是受近期金融危機、全球金融危機和艾滋病毒大流行影響最嚴重的地區經濟體之一，但其總體增長前景仍然相對樂觀。

So what has made the Thai economy so weirdly resilient to these economic challenges?

那麼，是什麼讓泰國經濟在面對這些經濟挑戰時表現出如此怪異的韌性呢？

What has been fueling the most recent round of growth?

And finally, are the current set of challenges going to be as easy to work through?

最後，當前的一系列挑戰是否會那麼容易解決？

Once we have done all of that we can put Thailand on the economics explained leaderboard.

完成所有這些工作後，我們就可以將泰國列入經濟學解釋排行榜。

Before we dive in, let me share something that keeps me focused and energized while researching these fascinating topics.

在我們深入探討之前，請允許我分享一些讓我在研究這些引人入勝的主題時保持專注和精力充沛的東西。

When I'm in deep focus mode diving into the complexities of global economies like Thailand I sometimes forget about easy but crucial things like drinking enough water throughout the day to stay hydrated.

當我專注於研究像泰國這樣複雜的全球經濟時，我有時會忘記一些簡單但至關重要的事情，比如每天喝足夠的水以保持水分。

That's where today's sponsor Element comes into play.

這就是今天的贊助商元素髮揮作用的地方。

Element is a zero-sugar electrolyte drink mixed with everything you need and nothing you don't.

元素 "是一種零糖電解質飲料，其中含有人體所需的一切營養成分。

It provides the electrolytes your body needs, sodium, potassium, and magnesium, without any added sugar, artificial ingredients, or colouring.

它提供人體所需的電解質、鈉、鉀和鎂，不添加任何糖、人工成分或色素。

It's a healthy alternative to sugary electrolyte drinks and it's trusted by many Olympic athletes including the USA weightlifting team and even by the Navy SEALs.

它是含糖電解質飲料的健康替代品，受到包括美國舉重隊在內的許多奧運選手甚至海豹突擊隊的信賴。

Proper hydration is key to everyone, whether you're pushing your physical limits just as the Olympic athletes, travelling a lot, or just trying to stay focused and have enough energy during the day.

適當補充水分對每個人來說都很關鍵，無論您是像奧林匹克運動員一樣挑戰身體極限，還是經常旅行，或者只是想在一天中保持注意力集中和精力充沛。

I like to keep a stack of packets on my desk to help me stay hydrated throughout the day.

我喜歡在辦公桌上放一摞水袋，幫助我全天保持水分。

If you want to try Element, right now they're offering a free sample pack of all 8 flavours with any purchase.

如果您想嚐嚐 Element 的味道，現在購買任何產品都可免費獲得全部 8 種口味的樣品包。

Best of all it's risk free, if you don't love it they'll refund your order no questions asked.

最重要的是，它是無風險的，如果你不喜歡，他們會無條件退還你的訂單。

To get your free sample go to www.drinkelement.com slash economics explained or click the link in the description.

要獲取免費樣本，請訪問 www.drinkelement.com slash economics explained 或點擊描述中的鏈接。

To understand how Thailand operates economically there are a few historical developments worth mentioning that make it unique compared to its neighbours.

要了解泰國的經濟運行情況，有幾項歷史發展值得一提，它們使泰國與鄰國相比獨具特色。

Aside from a few little invasions here and there the country is the only southeast Asian territory to avoid direct colonial rule.

除了幾次小規模的入侵外，該國是東南亞唯一沒有受到直接殖民統治的領土。

Moreover, while acting as a zone separating French and British colonies it managed to act as a hub for trade and after the opening of the Suez canal Thailand became the primary exporter of rice in the region, a trend that continues to this very day.

蘇伊士運河開通後，泰國成為該地區主要的大米出口國，這一趨勢一直延續至今。

Although this may appear to be a profitable series of events for both the leadership and the people of Thailand, it's economic prosperity was often separated from the public by technocrats managing the bulk of exchanges as it continued to industrialise.

儘管對泰國領導層和人民來說，這似乎是一系列有利可圖的事件，但隨著泰國工業化的不斷髮展，技術官僚管理著大量的交易，泰國的經濟繁榮往往與公眾相隔甚遠。

Domestic benefits were not yet realised and this continued to be a trend for decades.

國內利益尚未實現，這種趨勢持續了幾十年。

In fact Thailand's economy as it exists today really got started in the mid-1980s when the plaza accord pre-shared the US dollar against the currency of the UK, France, West Germany and especially Japan.

事實上，今天的泰國經濟真正起步於 20 世紀 80 年代中期，當時廣場協議預先將美元與英國、法國、西德，尤其是日本的貨幣掛鉤。

Of course Thailand was not involved in this deal at all and they didn't even use any of the currencies directly impacted, but this new agreement, mostly amongst countries on the other side of the world, changed the kingdom in profound ways.

當然，泰國根本沒有參與這項交易，他們甚至沒有使用任何直接受影響的貨幣，但這項新協議，主要是在世界另一端的國家之間達成的，卻以深刻的方式改變了這個王國。

The first phase was initiated when Thailand re-pegged its currency, the baht, at 25 per US dollar in 1984.

第一階段始於 1984 年泰國將其貨幣泰銖與 1 美元兌 25 泰銖重新掛鉤。

The goal of the plaza accord was to devalue the dollar.

廣場協議的目的是讓美元貶值。

In theory it would reduce the US trade deficit, making exports more competitive in an effort to stabilise trade with Japan.

理論上，這將減少美國的貿易赤字，提高出口競爭力，從而穩定與日本的貿易。

Either way this also devalued Thailand's native currency because it was pegged to the US dollar.

無論如何，這也使泰國的本幣貶值，因為它是與美元掛鉤的。

The accord made the Japanese currency more valuable, making their exports more expensive and therefore less competitive, which pushed Japanese manufacturers to find creative ways to cut costs.

該協議使日本貨幣更有價值，使其出口產品更加昂貴，從而降低了競爭力，這促使日本製造商尋找創造性的方法來降低成本。

The Chinese market was still just opening up, so Japan started looking at the strategic trade advantage Thailand held at the crossroads of the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait, a channel prime for shipping between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

當時中國市場剛剛開放，是以日本開始關注泰國在南中國海和馬六甲海峽（印度洋和太平洋之間的主要航道）交匯處的戰略貿易優勢。

This could not have come at a better time as Thailand had been making an effort to deregulate industries and open its doors to more foreign investment, which played a massive role in enticing Japanese firms to make the leap and plant factories and operations in the country, training up the workforce to change them from farmers to factory workers.

泰國一直在努力放鬆對各行各業的管制，並向更多的外國投資敞開大門，這在吸引日本公司躍躍欲試、在泰國建廠和開展業務、培訓勞動力使其從農民變為工廠工人方面發揮了巨大作用。

This also paired well with and encouraged Thailand to make the leap from agrarian self-sufficiency to a model of exporting the goods it could produce most competitively and importing whatever it needed with the money it made from selling those goods, leading to a range of those long-awaited domestic benefits.

這也很好地配合並鼓勵了泰國從農業自給自足向出口最具競爭力的產品、用銷售這些產品賺來的錢進口所需產品的模式飛躍，從而帶來了一系列期待已久的國內利益。

This process of industrialisation also helped agriculture, which changed from pretty basic subsistence farming to relatively mechanised agriculture during this time, allowing more people to put down their farming tools and get higher-paying jobs than factories.

這一工業化進程也有助於農業的發展，在此期間，農業從相當基本的自給農業轉變為相對機械化的農業，讓更多人放下農具，獲得比工廠更高薪的工作。

Now this is a story that has happened in dozens of countries across the world over the last 4 decades, but what made the Thai economy so interesting is how weirdly resilient it was to the upcoming economic challenges.

在過去 40 年裡，這種情況在全球數十個國家都曾發生過，但泰國經濟之所以如此有趣，是因為它對即將到來的經濟挑戰有著奇特的適應力。

This can be explained by looking at the events leading up to the Asian financial crisis.

這可以從亞洲金融危機之前發生的事件中得到解釋。

For a time, economic changes for Thailand led to a boom in the market with the baht linked to the US dollar at a set rate.

有一段時間，泰國的經濟變化導致市場繁榮，泰銖以固定匯率與美元掛鉤。

This link ensured that foreign investments were more enticing because investors didn't have to worry about returns being impacted by foreign exchange fluctuations, that is as long as the Thai currency remained in line with the US dollar.

這種聯繫確保了外國投資更具吸引力，因為只要泰銖與美元保持一致，投資者就不必擔心收益會受到外匯波動的影響。

Of course there were also other traits that added fuel to the fire.

當然，還有其他一些特點也起到了火上澆油的作用。

Foreign investors could charge relatively high interest rates on their loans which encouraged institutions to take out loans in their home currency to exchange them for Thai baht.

外國投資者可以收取相對較高的貸款利率，這就鼓勵機構用本國貨幣貸款，以換取泰銖。

Furthermore, borrowers could take out and return loans as a result of Thailand's acceptance of Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund in 1990 to open Thailand's financial system to the international community.

此外，由於泰國在 1990 年接受了國際貨幣基金組織第 8 條的規定，向國際社會開放了泰國的金融體系，是以借款人可以貸款和歸還貸款。

This lending strategy was a way to make pure profit with higher interest rates on Thailand's peg currency.

這種貸款策略是利用泰國掛鉤貨幣的較高利率賺取純利潤的一種方式。

This meant that there was lots of money flowing into Thailand to fund its expansion, which was great.

這意味著有大量資金流入泰國，為泰國的擴張提供資金，這非常好。

But at a certain point the country didn't need any more investment and all it was doing was driving up asset prices.

但到了一定程度，國家不需要更多的投資，它所做的一切都是在推高資產價格。

The massive inflow of hot money, risky loans, and crony capitalism made Thai banking under-regulated when giving loans to corporations.

熱錢的大量流入、高風險貸款和裙帶資本主義使得泰國銀行業在向企業提供貸款時監管不足。

Without proper risk assessment and Thailand's connections to the US dollar, the system morphed into an unstable house of cards with three major events that caused it to finally come toppling down.

由於沒有適當的風險評估以及泰國與美元的聯繫，該系統演變成了一個不穩定的紙牌搭成的房子，三個重大事件導致它最終倒塌。

The first was that the USA increased its interest rates in the mid-1990s to fend off inflation.

首先是美國在 20 世紀 90 年代中期提高利率以抵禦通貨膨脹。

This decision effectively made this baht exchange method of taking out loans in one country and giving out loans in Thailand less profitable.

這一決定實際上使這種在一個國家貸款、在泰國發放貸款的泰銖兌換方式變得無利可圖。

The rising interest rates ultimately caused the dollar to appreciate, which caused the baht to appreciate as well, which led to a fall in international exports.

利率上升最終導致美元升值，泰銖也隨之升值，從而導致國際出口下降。

The second was China, which finally managed to open its doors enough to compete on the world stage, exporting enough to finally challenge even its more distant neighbours.

其次是中國，它終於成功地打開了國門，足以在世界舞臺上競爭，出口量甚至足以挑戰其更遙遠的鄰國。

The third was unprofitable industries like real estate that couldn't make a return on their investment at high interest rates.

第三是房地產等無利可圖的行業，在高利率下無法獲得投資回報。

The expansion was largely fuelled by investments into land, residential property, condos, and offices, breeding a highly speculative market in the sector, which made it very vulnerable.

這種擴張主要是由對土地、住宅物業、公寓和寫字樓的投資所推動的，滋生了該行業的高度投機市場，使其非常脆弱。

As the bubble burst, loans were defaulted en masse, crushing banks that played the precarious game.

隨著保麗龍的破滅，貸款被大量拖欠，使那些玩這種不穩定遊戲的銀行一蹶不振。

這對泰國來說可不是什麼好兆頭。

In the eyes of those putting money into the machine, Asian markets, Thailand in particular, were now seen as sinking ships and everybody wanted to jump fast.

在投入資金的人眼中，亞洲市場，尤其是泰國，現在被視為沉沒的船隻，每個人都想快速跳船。

So they were all getting their money back, which pushed the value of the Thai baht down in foreign exchange markets, but because the value of the currency was pegged, the government had to raise the price back up by selling its US dollars.

是以，他們都拿回了自己的錢，這推低了泰銖在外匯市場上的價值，但由於貨幣價值是掛鉤的，政府不得不通過出售美元來抬高價格。

Sticking with the metaphor, the hole was now punctured and Thailand was forced to get rid of everything in an attempt to stop the sinking.

按照這個比喻，這個洞現在被刺穿了，泰國被迫扔掉所有東西，試圖阻止下沉。

And this was where things got really bad.

就在這時，事情變得非常糟糕。

Hemorrhaging cash as well as international faith, Thailand had no choice but to raise interest rates, in the short term, by 25%.

由於現金和國際信心的流失，泰國別無選擇，只能在短期內將利率提高 25%。

Now in theory, when things are running smoothly, this seems like a power move.

從理論上講，在一切順利的情況下，這似乎是一種權力之舉。

Basically if one sees 10% interest rates it might look like a good investment, but if one sees 20% interest rates it starts to look like a desperate attempt to get money by any means necessary.

基本上，如果看到 10%的利率，可能會覺得這是個不錯的投資，但如果看到 20%的利率，就開始覺得這是在不擇手段地撈錢。

With Thai foreign exchange reserves drained, the country's stock market crashed.

隨著泰國外匯存底的枯竭，該國股票市場崩潰。

Along with other Asian currencies, the baht fell sharply.

泰銖與其他亞洲貨幣一起大幅下跌。

Capital inflows slowed, some even reversed.

資本流入減緩，有些甚至逆轉。

By the end of 1997, the baht lost almost half of its value, falling from around 26 to the dollar to 53 by January of 1998.

到 1997 年底，泰銖貶值近一半，從 1 美元兌 26 泰銖跌至 1998 年 1 月的 53 泰銖。

On top of everything, unemployment tripled from 1.5% to 4.5%, which might not sound bad from the perspective of an advanced economy where unemployment rates are normally around 4%, but Thailand has very little social safety and it also has much lower employment standards, which means its rate is normally much lower.

除此之外，失業率從 1.5%增至 4.5%，增加了兩倍。從發達經濟體的角度來看，失業率通常在 4%左右，這聽起來似乎並不壞，但泰國的社會安全保障非常薄弱，就業標準也低得多，這意味著其失業率通常要低得多。

In short, if it gets this high, it's game over for many and people will inevitably experience severe poverty.

簡而言之，如果房價漲到這麼高，很多人就玩完了，人們將不可避免地陷入嚴重貧困。

But out of the chaos that erupted in Asian markets, there was a silver lining for Thailand and it had to do with the way that they spent money when times were good.

不過，在亞洲市場爆發的混亂中，泰國也有一線希望，這與他們在經濟形勢好時的花錢方式有關。

Much of the investments the country received were put towards infrastructure, building roads, ports, construction of electrical grids, airports, housing and anything else that the country could think of to improve productivity.

國家獲得的大部分投資都用於基礎設施建設、修建公路、港口、建設電網、機場、住房以及國家能想到的其他任何提高生產力的項目。

This meant that even though the coffers were empty, Thailand had many of the tools at its is what started the revival in the early 2000s.

這意味著，儘管國庫空虛，但泰國擁有許多工具，這正是 2000 年代初開始復興的原因。

Another aspect of Thailand's return to growth had to do with its currency, which was allowed to float and fall in value, which made exports more competitive once again.

泰國恢復增長的另一個原因是允許貨幣浮動和貶值，這使得出口再次更具競爭力。

The country's decision to join the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, in 1949 turned out to be fiscally responsible as well.

該國於 1949 年決定加入國際貨幣基金組織（IMF），事實證明這也是一個對財政負責的決定。

After paying off loans, they were subsequently bailed out a striking two decades in advance of initial projections, and they did this by focusing on the real economy within their borders, all while adding a high level of prudence and general discipline to their export-led economy.

在還清貸款後，它們隨後獲得的救助比最初的預測提前了驚人的 20 年，而它們做到這一點的方法就是專注於本國境內的實體經濟，同時在其出口導向型經濟中加入了高度的謹慎和普遍的紀律。

This development in particular was almost a blessing in disguise, as they learnt early that a heavy reliance on financial institutions and speculation would leave them vulnerable if they were confronting similar crises.

尤其是這一事態發展幾乎是因禍得福，因為他們很早就認識到，嚴重依賴金融機構和投機活動會使他們在面臨類似危機時變得脆弱不堪。

By embracing exports, they ended up being one of the few major nations to circumvent foreign exposure in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.

在 2008 年全球金融危機爆發後，通過出口，他們最終成為少數幾個規避外國風險的主要國家之一。

Of course, nobody completely dodged the bullet, but it allowed Thailand to bounce back much faster than many of its competitors.

當然，沒有人能夠完全躲過子彈，但它使泰國的反彈速度遠遠快於許多競爭對手。

Additionally, as referenced earlier, utilising the Malacca Strait, Thailand's legendary reputation for rice exports was a godsend, and even that is a bit of an understatement.

此外，如前所述，利用馬六甲海峽，泰國在大米出口方面的傳奇聲譽是一個天賜良機，甚至有點輕描淡寫。

See, rice is considered to be an inelastic good, meaning that when the price of said good changes, the quantity demanded doesn't change that significantly, because it's more or less an essential form of sustenance to billions of people.

大米被認為是一種缺乏彈性的商品，也就是說，當商品的價格發生變化時，需求量並不會有太大的變化，因為對於數十億人來說，大米或多或少是一種必需品。

And given the location of Thailand, close to a large number of countries that consume rice as a mealtime staple, dessert, and necessity, there was always going to be a large consumer base eager to purchase it, meaning that even though it may not be the most profitable export, it was always going to be in demand.

泰國地理位置優越，毗鄰許多將大米作為主食、甜點和生活必需品的國家，是以總會有大量的消費者渴望購買大米，這意味著儘管大米可能不是最賺錢的出口產品，但它總會有需求。

That location is good for more than just competitive global trade too, there's also the environment that comes along with it.

這種地理位置不僅有利於全球貿易的競爭，還有利於隨之而來的環境。

Whether it's the beaches of Koh Samui, the lush landscape of Phuket, or partying in Bangkok, Thailand stands as a cultural monument ripe for tourism.

無論是蘇梅島的海灘、普吉島鬱鬱蔥蔥的風景，還是曼谷的派對，泰國都是一座成熟的旅遊文化古蹟。

This in conjunction with the aforementioned improvements in infrastructure has made it a global hotspot, but there were, and are, still considerable hoops to jump through to sustain that.

這一點再加上前面提到的基礎設施的改善，使其成為全球熱點地區，但要維持這一地位，過去和現在都還需要克服相當多的障礙。

Before the pandemic, it was actually the 8th most visited country on the planet, with Bangkok being the most visited city in the world.

在大流行病發生之前，它實際上是全球第八大遊客最多的國家，而曼谷則是世界上游客最多的城市。

It's tourism that's earned a spot amongst Thailand's biggest industries, accounting for some 20% of gross domestic product.

旅遊業是泰國最大的產業之一，約佔國內生產總值的 20%。

In 2019, Thailand earned $90 billion from domestic and international tourism, but the pandemic caused revenues to crash to $24 billion in 2020.

2019 年，泰國的國內和國際旅遊業收入為 900 億美元，但大流行病導致 2020 年的收入銳減至 240 億美元。

Surprisingly though, even with this loss of foot traffic and the gradual recovery, Thailand is still doing okay.

但令人驚訝的是，即使人流量減少，經濟逐漸復甦，泰國的經濟狀況依然良好。

There are a large number of travelers who visit Thailand and can't help but stay for long periods of time.

有很多遊客來到泰國後，都會情不自禁地在泰國逗留很長一段時間。

The country has become a hotspot for digital nomads who are attracted to the country for its low cost of living, good internet, and relatively pro-business culture.

該國已成為數字遊民的熱點地區，他們因其低廉的生活成本、良好的網絡和相對親商的文化而受到吸引。

Its growth has been slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, but that's potentially a sign of things being more stable and sustainable.

與 20 世紀 80 年代和 90 年代相比，其增長速度有所放緩，但這有可能是更加穩定和可持續發展的跡象。

After all, a rapid rise in GDP is not often indicative of lasting prosperity.

畢竟，國內生產總值的快速增長往往並不代表持久的繁榮。

Of course, it's easy to assume that this might turn into an all-too-familiar situation where foreign workers and other buyers flood in to make large acquisitions, while locals sacrifice affordability to favor foreign participation, but Thailand appears to have that handled.

當然，很容易讓人聯想到，這可能會演變成我們再熟悉不過的情況：外國工人和其他買家湧入泰國進行大筆收購，而當地人則犧牲經濟承受能力來支持外資參與，但泰國似乎已經處理好了這一問題。

The country is very welcoming and accommodating of foreign workers and even foreigners who want to set up their own businesses in the country or buy a home, but there are severe limitations on things like property ownership not used as a primary residence.

該國非常歡迎和包容外籍工人，甚至是希望在該國建立自己的企業或購買住房的外國人，但對非用作主要住所的房產所有權等有嚴格限制。

This tends to create just enough incentive for foreign participation, while not giving up sovereign wealth sectors significantly.

這往往能為外資參與提供足夠的激勵，同時又不會大幅放棄主權財富部門。

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儘管泰國長期不穩定，但它能否重塑亞洲？ (Could Thailand Reshape Asia Despite Its Chronic Instability?)

massive

essential

pandemic

basically