Now, with the continuing fighting happening in the Middle East, how does that influence your keys and, of course, voters' minds in voters' minds?

現在，中東戰事不斷，這對你們的工作，當然還有選民的想法有什麼影響？

You know, normally, foreign policy doesn't influence voters because they don't follow the day to day affairs of what's going on abroad.

要知道，通常情況下，外交政策不會影響選民，因為他們並不關注國外發生的日常事務。

But big, splashy failures and big, splashy successes do influence voters among one of my many 13 keys.

但是，轟轟烈烈的失敗和轟轟烈烈的成功確實會影響選民，這也是我的 13 個關鍵因素之一。

And what's going on in the Middle East and in Ukraine is extremely important because I have a foreign policy success and foreign policy failure key, both of which are still uncertain, depending on the vicissitudes of war.

中東和烏克蘭的局勢極為重要，因為我有一個外交政策成敗的關鍵，這兩個關鍵都還不確定，取決於戰爭的變化。

You know, I'm often asked when Biden was running, what did Biden have to do to win this election?

拜登參選時，經常有人問我，拜登要怎麼做才能贏得選舉？

And my answer was govern well.

我的回答是 "很好"。

The most important thing Democrats could do right now, because they're the incumbent party, is somehow, you know, broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Middle East.

民主黨人現在能做的最重要的事情，因為他們是執政黨，就是以某種方式，你知道的，促成中東地區的停火和人質釋放協議。

I know it's a long shot, but that's what they should be focusing on.

我知道機會渺茫，但這正是他們應該關注的。

Now to Robert Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Trump on Friday.

現在來看小羅伯特-肯尼迪週五對特朗普的支持。

I talked to you before the endorsement became official.

在正式認可之前，我和你談過。

You said that that does not influence your 13 keys, RFK's endorsement.

你說這並不影響你的 13 把鑰匙，即肯尼迪的認可。

Why is that, Alan?

為什麼會這樣，艾倫？

Yeah, well, I have one key on third party, which was already fading away.

是的，我有一把鑰匙在第三方設備上，這把鑰匙已經逐漸消失了。

Look, people have said, oh, my gosh, RFK Jr.'s got five percent in some of the swing states.

人們說，天哪，小肯尼迪在一些搖擺州的支持率只有5%。

That's completely misleading because third party candidates, when it actually comes to voting, typically get a half or less of their top poll numbers.

這完全是一種誤導，因為第三黨候選人在實際投票時，通常只能獲得最高民調數字的一半或更少。

So you're talking about maybe two percent, not five percent.

所以你說的可能是百分之二，而不是百分之五。

And by no means is that two percent just going to be delivered to Donald Trump.

而且，這兩個百分點絕不是隻給唐納德-特朗普的。

On the other hand, having RFK Jr.

另一方面，讓小肯尼迪（RFK Jr.

on board simply gives Democrats more ammunition for the notion that the Republican campaign is weird.

這只是給民主黨人提供了更多彈藥，讓他們認為共和黨的競選活動很奇怪。

Instead of, you know, two weirdos, they now have three.

他們現在有三個怪人，而不是兩個。

Instead of weird square, they have weird cube.

他們沒有奇怪的正方形，而是奇怪的立方體。

Moreover, his stance on being an anti-vaxxer is anathema to the suburban women who will likely decide this election.

此外，他反對疫苗接種的立場對郊區婦女來說是一種詛咒，而這些婦女很可能將決定這次選舉。

70 percent of Americans are against his stance and probably for suburban women, it's much larger.

70%的美國人反對他的立場，對於郊區女性來說，這一比例可能更高。

So any tiny, miniscule turnover from RFK Jr.

是以，小肯尼迪的任何微小、微不足道的更替，都會影響到他的政治生涯。

to Donald Trump is likely to be far washed away by the revulsion of suburban women against RFK's signature campaign approach, which is that his anti-vaccine stance, which could threaten the health of millions of American children.

對於唐納德-特朗普來說，郊區婦女對肯尼迪標誌性競選方式的反感很可能會沖淡他的競選成果，那就是他的反疫苗立場，這可能會威脅到數百萬美國兒童的健康。

Now, Alan, you know, as well as I do, this race between Harris and Trump, it's close.

現在，艾倫，你和我一樣清楚，哈里斯和特朗普之間的競爭，很接近。

It's in within it's within the margin of error.

它在誤差範圍之內。

I also know you don't like polls.

我也知道你不喜歡民意調查。

However, with your methodology, does this race seem neck and neck to you?

然而，根據您的方法論，您是否認為這場比賽勢均力敵？

Well, I haven't made a call yet, but it's coming soon, right after Labor Day.

我還沒打電話，但很快就會打，就在勞動節之後。

I have said a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose and forget the polls and the pundits.

我已經說過，民主黨要想輸掉選舉，必須要出很多問題，忘掉民意調查和專家學者吧。

The pundits are sports talk radio.

體育評論員是體育脫口秀電臺。

You know, they're talking off the top of their head.

你知道，他們說的都是頭頭是道。

It's fun, but it has no scientific basis.

這很有趣，但沒有科學依據。

And polls are snapshots, ephemeral snapshots.

而民意調查是快照，是短暫的快照。

And the error margin is far greater than the plus and minus three percent that they tell you. That's just statistical error.

而且誤差範圍遠遠大於他們告訴你的正負百分之三。這只是統計誤差。

Add on, they don't know who's going to vote.

另外，他們不知道誰會投票。

They have to guess at likely voters.

他們必須猜測可能的選民。

Poll respondents could lie or change their mind.

民意調查的受訪者可能會撒謊或改變主意。

That's why I tell everyone, keep your eye on the big picture as gauged by the keys to the White House, which look at the strength and performance of the White House party.

這就是為什麼我告訴大家，要關注白宮的關鍵所在，即白宮黨的實力和表現。

And within a couple of weeks, I will reveal to the nation my final prediction, which has been right since 1984.

在幾周內，我將向全國公佈我的最終預測，自 1984 年以來，我的預測一直是正確的。

I know that I would not bet against you, Alan.

我知道我不會和你打賭的，艾倫。

I have to ask, though, you said you're going to make the prediction after Labor Day.

不過我想問一下，你說你會在勞動節後做出預測。

You've told me that numerous times because I try to get it out of you.

你已經跟我說過無數次了，因為我試著從你嘴裡套出來。

What do you think is going to happen between then and now?

你認為從那時到現在會發生什麼？

What are you looking for to make that prediction?

你在尋找什麼來進行預測？

Well, you know, the school year is starting.

你知道，新學年開始了。

So the biggest thing I'm looking at, you know, is there going to be a huge outpouring of social unrest?

是以，我所關注的最大問題是，是否會出現大規模的社會動盪？

That's one of my keys.

這是我的關鍵之一。

I don't expect it, but I'm looking at it.

我不指望它，但我正看著它。

And of course, while it may be unlikely to happen in the next couple of weeks, I am looking at what's going on with the ceasefire negotiations with the and in Ukraine, with the incursion of the Ukrainians into Russia.

當然，雖然在未來幾周內不太可能發生，但我正在關注與烏克蘭的停火談判以及烏克蘭人入侵俄羅斯的情況。

It's a lot of fluidity in America and in the world.

美國和世界都在不斷變化。

And that's what counts, not campaign speeches, ad fundraising and dirty tricks.

這才是最重要的，而不是競選演說、廣告籌款和骯髒伎倆。

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點擊下面的按鈕，瞭解更多 NewsNation 以事實為導向、不帶偏見的報道。