But in 2023, that number dipped below 50% for the first time since 2005.

但在 2023 年，這一數字自 2005 年以來首次降至 50%以下。

And you'll notice right here, they've started to lean more Republican.

你會注意到，他們開始更傾向於共和黨。

And that's partly because of one specific group, young men.

部分原因在於一個特殊群體，即年輕男性。

Young men have increased their support of the Republican Party from 35% to 48%, a 13 percentage point increase in just seven years.

年輕男性對共和黨的支持率從 35% 上升到 48%，在短短 7 年時間裡增加了 13 個百分點。

And this is a new trend.

這是一種新趨勢。

While 2020 exit polls show that young men backed Biden by 15 percentage points, a February 2024 Wall Street Journal poll found they favored Trump by 14 percentage points.

2020 年的出口民調顯示，年輕人支持拜登的比例為 15 個百分點，而《華爾街日報》2024 年 2 月的民調則發現，他們支持特朗普的比例為 14 個百分點。

And this loss of young male voters is a major issue for the Democratic Party going into November.

而年輕男性選民的流失是民主黨進入 11 月的一個重要問題。

The question now, can Kamala Harris bring some back?

現在的問題是，卡馬拉-哈里斯能否讓一些人回來？

Here's what's driving young men to support Republicans and what it could mean for the presidential election to come.

以下是促使年輕人支持共和黨的原因，以及這對未來的總統大選可能意味著什麼。

When we ask young voters, what issue is most important to you when you go to cast a vote?

當我們問年輕選民，當你去投票時，什麼問題對你來說最重要？

Among young men, it's the economy.

在年輕人中，這是經濟問題。

Among young women, it's abortion. 17% of men say the economy is the most important issue, followed by democracy and immigration.

在年輕女性中，則是墮胎。17%的男性認為經濟是最重要的問題，其次是民主和移民。

Whereas for young women, the top issue is abortion, by a lot.

而對年輕女性來說，最重要的問題是墮胎，而且比例很高。

Why is this happening?

為什麼會這樣？

Well, we put the reasons into two different buckets.

好吧，我們把原因抽成兩類。

One is the life experiences that young men and young women are having.

一是青年男女的生活經歷。

Those life experiences are diverging.

這些生活經歷是不同的。

Young men without a college degree have seen the greatest decline in labor force participation.

沒有大學文憑的年輕男性的勞動力參與率下降幅度最大。

Meanwhile, a record 87% of college educated women are in the workforce.

與此同時，受過大學教育的女性就業率達到了創紀錄的 87%。

And today, women make up 60% of college graduates.

如今，女性佔大學畢業生的 60%。

This division that we're seeing between young men and young women, it goes beyond who they're going to vote for for Congress or president.

我們在青年男女之間看到的這種分歧，已經超出了他們將投票支持誰擔任國會議員或總統的範疇。

It goes to a range of policy issues.

它涉及一系列政策問題。

So then let's look at what the government is offering.

那麼，讓我們看看政府提供了什麼。

The Biden administration has moved to forgive federally funded student loans.

拜登政府已著手免除聯邦政府資助的學生貸款。

That affects young women more than young men.

這對年輕女性的影響比對年輕男性的影響更大。

During the 2019-2020 school year, 49% of female undergraduate students took out loans, compared to only 42% of male undergraduates.

在 2019-2020 學年，49% 的女大學生申請了貸款，而男大學生只有 42%。

And 66% of all student debt is carried by women.

66%的學生債務由女性承擔。

The young women favored forgiving student loans by 45 percentage points.

年輕女性贊成免除學生貸款的比例高達 45 個百分點。

The young men were about equally divided.

年輕人的意見大致相同。

I mean, that's a big difference.

我的意思是，這是一個很大的區別。

Meanwhile, young men support extending Trump's tax cuts by 23 percentage points, which cut the corporate tax rate and reduce some individual income tax.

同時，年輕男性支持將特朗普的減稅政策延長 23 個百分點，這些政策削減了企業稅率，並降低了部分個人所得稅。

And now because of our tax cuts, you can keep more of your hard-earned money.

現在，由於我們的減稅政策，您可以保留更多的血汗錢。

But women oppose the proposed extension by 20 percentage points, a full 43 point difference.

但女性反對延期提議的比例高達 20 個百分點，整整相差 43 個百分點。

That's data that goes like this.

這些數據是這樣的

Young men headed in one direction and young women in the other.

年輕男子朝一個方向走，年輕女子朝另一個方向走。

That's a big difference.

這是一個很大的區別。

Data does not usually segment young voters that remarkably.

數據通常不會如此顯著地細分年輕選民。

This is something new.

這是一件新鮮事。

Which brings us back to this chart. 22% of young female voters say abortion is their number one issue in this election, a key aspect of Harris's campaign.

這讓我們回到這張圖表。22%的年輕女性選民表示，墮胎是她們在此次選舉中的首要問題，這也是哈里斯競選活動的一個關鍵方面。

We trust women to make decisions about their own body.

我們相信婦女能夠對自己的身體做出決定。

Only 3% of young male voters said the same.

只有 3%的年輕男性選民持相同觀點。

And young men and women stacked up differently on other issues as well.

男女青年在其他問題上的表現也不盡相同。

With immigration, Trump's policies are much more likely to be supported by men than women.

在移民問題上，男性比女性更傾向於支持特朗普的政策。

Men support deploying troops at the border by 10 percentage points, whereas women oppose this policy by 15 points.

男性支持在邊境部署軍隊的比例為 10 個百分點，而女性反對這一政策的比例為 15 個百分點。

And when it comes to building the wall, one of Trump's key immigration policies, men are only slightly leaning towards opposition, but women overwhelmingly oppose it.

而在談到特朗普的主要移民政策之一--修建隔離牆時，男性只是略微傾向於反對，但女性卻壓倒性地反對。

These gaps are hard to explain just by differences in lived experience, which brings us to the second thing that explains the gap between young men and women.

這些差距很難僅僅用生活經歷的差異來解釋，這就引出瞭解釋青年男女之間差距的第二點。

What are the candidates and what are the parties saying to young voters?

候選人和政黨對年輕選民說了什麼？

Donald Trump and the Republican Party are putting out a lot of messages expressly intended to appeal to young men.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）和共和黨發佈了大量明確旨在吸引年輕人的資訊。

Donald Trump has gone to ultimate fighting championship matches.

唐納德-特朗普參加過終極格鬥冠軍賽。

He recently appeared on the podcast of Logan Paul.

他最近參加了 Logan Paul 的播客節目。

He went to a sneaker convention to sell his own brand of sneakers.

他去參加運動鞋大會，推銷自己的運動鞋品牌。

We've got to get young people out to vote.

我們必須讓年輕人出來投票。

These are audiences that are overwhelmingly male and overwhelmingly filled with young men.

這些觀眾絕大多數都是男性，而且絕大多數都是年輕人。

And it's a way that Donald Trump and his campaign have been saying, hey, young men, I'm with you.

唐納德-特朗普和他的競選團隊一直在說，嘿，年輕人，我支持你們。

I'm on the same page as you.

我和你觀點一致。

I understand you.

我理解你。

Meanwhile, a lot of the messaging from the Democratic Party has been towards issues that are more salient for women.

與此同時，民主黨發出的很多資訊都是針對女性更關注的問題。

When I am president of the United States, I will sign into law the protections for reproductive freedom.

當我成為美國總統後，我將簽署保護生殖自由的法律。

So what does this mean for November?

那麼，這對 11 月份意味著什麼呢？

Young women historically vote at higher rates than young men.

年輕女性的投票率歷來高於年輕男性。

But experts say that with a tight election, the Democratic Party will need to draw in as many votes as possible.

但專家表示，在選情緊張的情況下，民主黨需要吸引儘可能多的選票。

The next challenge for the Republican Party will be figuring out how to turn these young male supporters into actual voters.

共和黨面臨的下一個挑戰將是如何將這些年輕男性支持者變成真正的選民。