They swept into Russian towns and, after facing little resistance from Russian troops, kept going.

他們湧入俄羅斯城鎮，在幾乎沒有遇到俄羅斯軍隊的抵抗後，繼續前進。

More than a week later, they control more than 1,000 kilometers of territory and have left Russia stunned.

一個多星期後，他們控制了 1000 多公里的領土，令俄羅斯目瞪口呆。

This is a huge problem for Russia.

這對俄羅斯來說是個大問題。

For the first time in more than 80 years, foreign troops are fighting on Russian soil.

80 多年來，外國軍隊首次在俄羅斯領土上作戰。

Buildings destroyed allegedly by shelling, people fleeing the region.

據稱建築物被炮火摧毀，人們逃離該地區。

Vladimir Putin described the attack as a major provocation.

弗拉基米爾-普京稱這次襲擊是一次重大挑釁。

The main task is to force the enemy from our territory.

主要任務是迫使敵人離開我們的領土。

It's an irony that we lost them very few here.

具有諷刺意味的是，我們這裡失去他們的人很少。

Ukraine's attack is one of the boldest moves it's made since the start of the war.

烏克蘭的攻擊是開戰以來最大膽的行動之一。

But it's far from over.

但這還遠遠沒有結束。

This was a huge risk, and I would say it still is a huge risk.

這是一個巨大的風險，我認為現在仍然是一個巨大的風險。

So why did Ukraine attack inside Russia?

那麼，烏克蘭為什麼要攻擊俄羅斯境內？

And was it a stroke of genius or a dangerous mistake?

這究竟是天才之舉，還是危險的錯誤？

For most of 2024, Ukraine has had to play defense.

在 2024 年的大部分時間裡，烏克蘭都不得不進行防守。

It's been using basically all the soldiers it has to prevent Russia from advancing past these front lines.

它基本上動用了所有的阿兵哥來阻止俄羅斯越過這些前線。

Even then, it was beginning to lose ground here in the east.

即便如此，它在東部地區的地位也開始下降。

And the fighting was costly.

而戰鬥的代價是慘重的。

Ukraine was losing men, and those it had were exhausted.

烏克蘭正在損失人員，而它所擁有的人員已經精疲力竭。

Meanwhile, U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine if elected in November. 2024 seemed like a bad year for Ukraine.

與此同時，美國總統候選人唐納德-特朗普威脅說，如果他在 11 月當選，將削減對烏克蘭的援助。2024 年對烏克蘭來說似乎是糟糕的一年。

Dan Byman was in Ukraine just a couple weeks ago.

丹-拜曼幾周前剛剛去過烏克蘭。

People can really endure really a stunning amount of suffering and sacrifice.

人們真的可以忍受巨大的痛苦和犧牲。

But what they often need to sustain that is a sense that they have a chance of winning.

但是，他們往往需要一種有機會獲勝的感覺來維持這種感覺。

But Russia wasn't letting Ukraine get any wins in Ukraine.

但俄羅斯並沒有讓烏克蘭在烏克蘭取得任何勝利。

It's been pouring soldiers into the front line and stacking them behind miles of trenches, minefields and fortifications.

它一直在向前線輸送阿兵哥，把他們堆在數英里長的戰壕、雷區和防禦工事後面。

But Russia has committed so many soldiers here that it hasn't left very many to defend its own soil.

但俄羅斯在這裡投入瞭如此多的阿兵哥，卻沒有留下多少來保衛自己的國土。

Kursk is where Russia launches many of its air and artillery strikes from.

庫爾斯克是俄羅斯發動多次空襲和炮擊的地方。

But the few soldiers it's ordered to guard it are mostly conscripts, men forced to join the military, briefly trained and paid very little.

但奉命守衛它的少數阿兵哥大多是應徵入伍者，他們是被強迫參軍的，只接受過短暫的訓練，薪水也很低。

The result is the best equipment, the best soldiers, they're all in Ukraine, not on the borders in Russia.

結果是，最好的裝備、最好的阿兵哥都在烏克蘭，而不是在俄羅斯邊境。

They're there precisely because Russia didn't think Ukraine would ever dare attack it.

它們之所以在那裡，正是因為俄羅斯認為烏克蘭不敢攻擊它。

Ukraine would need to pull troops to do it, which could make parts of its own front line vulnerable.

烏克蘭需要為此撤軍，這可能會使其前線部分地區變得脆弱。

And Ukraine's allies have feared that an attack on Russian soil could lead Vladimir Putin to escalate.

烏克蘭的盟國擔心，對俄羅斯領土的襲擊可能會導致普京的行動升級。

But it was a place that Ukraine thought it could get a win.

但烏克蘭認為在這裡可以取得勝利。

A few weeks ago, it began secretly moving thousands of its best troops to the border and Russia didn't notice that on August 6, Ukraine rolled the dice and was soon glad it did.

幾周前，烏克蘭開始將數千名精銳部隊祕密調往邊境，而俄羅斯並沒有注意到，8 月 6 日，烏克蘭擲出了骰子，並很快慶幸自己這麼做了。

Ukrainian forces stormed through the Russian border early on Tuesday.

烏克蘭軍隊於週二早些時候衝過俄羅斯邊境。

At least 1,000 Ukrainian troops supported by tanks and armored vehicles.

至少有 1 000 名烏克蘭阿兵哥得到坦克和裝甲車的支援。

Encountering little resistance.

遇到的阻力很小。

When Ukrainian troops crossed, they quickly overwhelmed the Russian conscripts and took dozens of them prisoner.

當烏克蘭部隊越過邊境時，他們迅速壓倒了俄羅斯應徵阿兵哥，並俘虜了其中數十人。

In two days, it captured about 350 square kilometers and several villages.

兩天內，它佔領了約 350 平方公里的土地和幾個村莊。

Russia counterattacked with airstrikes, but Ukrainian troops kept advancing.

俄羅斯進行了空襲反擊，但烏克蘭軍隊繼續推進。

It disrupted Russian artillery strikes and has launched its own artillery and drone strikes even deeper into Russia.

它破壞了俄羅斯的炮擊，並發動了自己的炮擊和無人機襲擊，甚至深入俄羅斯境內。

As of August 16, Ukraine reportedly has taken control of over 80 settlements, probably more than it expected to.

據報道，截至 8 月 16 日，烏克蘭已控制了 80 多個定居點，可能超過了它的預期。

I think Ukraine certainly hoped to achieve some of the benefits that they've gotten from this, but I'm sure they're pleasantly surprised by the poor Russian preparation and response so far.

我認為烏克蘭肯定希望能從中獲得一些好處，但我相信他們對俄羅斯迄今為止糟糕的準備和反應感到驚喜。

Frankly, Russia was cognapping.

坦率地說，俄羅斯是在綁架。

It's valuable territory, but it's the success of the attack that's giving Ukraine what it really wanted.

這是一塊寶貴的領土，但襲擊的成功讓烏克蘭得到了它真正想要的東西。

First, it's lending a much-needed boost of morale in Ukraine and signaling to its allies that it can still launch complex attacks.

首先，它在烏克蘭鼓舞了急需的士氣，並向其盟友表明，它仍然可以發動複雜的攻擊。

Second, Ukraine is now forcing Russia to play defense.

其次，烏克蘭現在正迫使俄羅斯進行防禦。

Russia is evacuating these areas and, most importantly, moving soldiers from the front line to Kursk, which could relieve some of the pressure on Ukraine.

俄羅斯正在撤離這些地區，最重要的是將前線的阿兵哥轉移到庫爾斯克，這可以減輕烏克蘭的一些壓力。

And third, this attack is undermining Putin's own narrative about the war.

第三，這次襲擊破壞了普京自己對戰爭的描述。

It's impossible to tell your own people that everything's going great when your territory has been invaded, when you have what seems like pretty embarrassing military losses, when your conscripts are being captured.

當你的領土被入侵，當你的軍隊損失慘重，當你的阿兵哥被俘虜時，你不可能告訴自己的人民一切都很順利。

Ukraine's attack has gone so well that some experts are speculating it could help it negotiate an end to the war.

烏克蘭的攻擊進展順利，以至於一些專家推測，這可能有助於烏克蘭通過談判結束戰爭。

Since 2022, Putin has said if Ukraine wants peace, it needs to give it all this land.

自 2022 年以來，普京一直在說，如果烏克蘭想要和平，就必須把這片土地全部讓給它。

Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has refused, but hasn't had much to offer in return.

烏克蘭總統沃洛德梅爾-澤連斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）拒絕了這一要求，但並沒有提供太多的回報。

Back in 2022, most Ukrainians supported this stance.

早在 2022 年，大多數烏克蘭人就支持這一立場。

But as the war drags on, the number of Ukrainians that support giving Russia some land in exchange for peace is growing, which could be putting pressure on Zelensky to negotiate.

但隨著戰爭的持續，支持給俄羅斯一些土地以換取和平的烏克蘭人越來越多，這可能會給澤連斯基帶來談判壓力。

Now by capturing this Russian territory, he could offer it to Russia in exchange for reducing the amount of Ukrainian land it's demanding.

現在，通過奪取這片俄羅斯領土，他可以向俄羅斯提供這片土地，以換取俄羅斯減少對烏克蘭土地的需求。

And maybe strike a deal.

也許還能達成協議。

Do you have any idea what this land in Russia would be worth?

你知道俄羅斯的這塊土地值多少錢嗎？

The idea that this could be traded for much seems far-fetched.

用它來換取很多東西的想法似乎有些牽強。

That is my instinct as well, is that yes, it could be traded for something, but probably not that much.

這也是我的直覺，那就是，是的，它可以換一些東西，但可能不會太多。

That said, land tends to kind of have some sort of sacred value, so it is possible.

儘管如此，土地往往具有某種神聖的價值，所以這是可能的。

But any talk of ending the war is premature, because this battle isn't over.

但是，任何結束戰爭的言論都為時過早，因為這場戰鬥還沒有結束。

There are reports that Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine over the last few days.

有報道稱，過去幾天俄羅斯在烏克蘭東部取得了進展。

If it were to take more and or inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine by counterattacking in Kursk, it would turn Ukraine's gamble into a costly mistake.

如果它在庫爾斯克發動反擊，給烏克蘭造成更多傷亡，就會使烏克蘭的賭博變成代價高昂的錯誤。

If you're a sports fan, right, it's like a risky play in football, where the coach is brilliant if the pass is caught.

如果你是體育迷，對，這就像足球比賽中的冒險戰術，如果傳球被接住，教練就會很輝煌。

And if it's not, you say, why did he make that play?

如果不是，你說，他為什麼要這麼做？

It's smart if it works.

只要有效，就很聰明。

Alright, I just spent the last two days doing this as fast as I could.

好吧，我這兩天都在用最快的速度做這個。

Today is Saturday, so hopefully it's about as up-to-date as I can make it.

今天是週六，希望我能儘量更新。

Obviously this is something that's changing a lot every day, but I'm hoping to give you guys a good explanation of what's going on in the big picture.

顯然，這種情況每天都在發生很大的變化，但我希望能給你們一個很好的解釋，讓你們瞭解發生了什麼大事情。

And if you're new here, this is Search Party.

如果你是新來的，這裡是 "搜索黨"。

We cover geopolitics as well as sports.

我們報道地緣政治和體育。

Check out some of our older videos and please subscribe.

查看我們的一些舊視頻，並請訂閱。

Other than that, we'll resume our normal programming in about a week.

除此之外，我們將在一週後恢復正常節目。

Alright, thanks so much.

好的，非常感謝。