People would plan out the activities they're going to engage in.

人們會計劃好要參加的活動。

More recently, there's been a discipline called strategy.

最近，有一門學科被稱為 "戰略"。

People have put those two things together to call something strategic planning.

人們把這兩件事放在一起，稱之為戰略規劃。

Unfortunately, those things are not the same, strategy and planning, so just putting them together and calling it strategic planning doesn't help.

不幸的是，戰略和規劃這兩件事並不相同，是以把它們放在一起並稱之為戰略規劃並沒有什麼幫助。

What most strategic planning is in the world of business has nothing to do with strategy.

在商業世界中，大多數戰略規劃都與戰略無關。

It's got the word, but it's not.

它有這個詞，但它不是。

It's a set of activities that the company says it's going to do.

這是公司說要做的一系列活動。

We're going to improve customer experience.

我們將改善客戶體驗。

We're going to open this new plant.

我們將開設這家新工廠。

We are going to start a new talent development program.

我們將啟動一項新的人才培養計劃。

A whole list of them, and they all sound good, but the results of all of those are not going to make the company happy because they didn't have a strategy.

一大串聽起來都不錯的建議，但這些建議的結果都不會讓公司滿意，因為他們沒有戰略。

So what's a strategy?

什麼是戰略？

A strategy is an integrative set of choices that positions you on a playing field of your choice in a way that you win.

戰略是一套綜合的選擇，它能讓你在自己選擇的賽場上勝出。

So there's a theory.

這就是理論。

Strategy has a theory.

戰略是有理論依據的。

Here's why we should be on this playing field, not this other one, and here's how on that playing field we're going to be better than anybody else at serving the customers on that playing field.

為什麼我們應該在這個賽場上，而不是在另一個賽場上？在這個賽場上，我們將如何比別人更好地為客戶提供服務？

That theory has to be coherent.

這種理論必須是連貫的。

It has to be doable.

它必須是可行的。

You have to be able to translate that into actions for it to be a great strategy.

你必須能夠將其轉化為行動，這才是一項偉大的戰略。

Planning does not have to have any such coherence, and it typically is what people in manufacturing want, the few things they want to build a new plant, and the marketing people want to launch a new brand, and the talent people want to hire more people.

規劃不一定要有這樣的連貫性，它通常是製造部門的人想要的東西，他們想建一個新工廠，市場營銷人員想推出一個新品牌，人才部門想僱用更多的人。

There tends to be a list that has no internal coherence to it and no specification of a way that that is going to accomplish collectively some goal for the company.

這樣的清單往往沒有內在的連貫性，也沒有具體說明如何共同完成公司的某個目標。

See, planning is quite comforting.

你看，規劃讓人很舒服。

Plans typically have to do with the resources you're going to spend.

計劃通常與您將花費的資源有關。

So we're going to build a plant.

所以我們要建一座工廠。

We're going to hire some people.

我們要僱一些人。

We're going to launch a new product.

我們要推出一款新產品。

Those are all things that are on the cost side of businesses.

這些都是企業成本方面的問題。

Who controls your costs?

誰來控制你的成本？

Who's the customer of your costs?

誰是您的客戶？

The answer is you are.

答案就是你。

You decide how many square feet to lease, how many raw materials to buy, how many people to hire.

你決定租賃多少平方英尺，購買多少原材料，僱傭多少員工。

Those are more comfortable because you control them.

這樣更舒適，因為你可以控制它們。

A strategy, on the other hand, specifies an outcome, a competitive outcome that you wish to achieve, which involves customers wanting your product or service enough that they will buy enough of it to make the profitability that you'd like to make.

另一方面，戰略明確了一種結果，一種你希望實現的競爭結果，即客戶對你的產品或服務有足夠的需求，以至於他們會購買足夠多的產品或服務，從而獲得你希望獲得的利潤。

The tricky thing about that is that you don't control them.

最棘手的是，你無法控制他們。

You might wish you could, but you can't.

你可能希望自己能做到，但你做不到。

They decide, not you.

由他們決定，而不是你。

That's a harder trick.

這一招更難。

So that means putting yourself out and saying, here's what we believe will happen.

是以，這就意味著把自己擺出來說，我們相信會發生這樣的事情。

We can't prove it in advance.

我們無法事先證明。

We can't guarantee it.

我們不能保證。

But this is what we want to have happen and that we believe will happen.

但這是我們希望發生的，也是我們相信會發生的。

It's much easier to say, I'll build a factory, I will hire more people, et cetera, than I will have customers end up liking our offering more than those of competitors.

說 "我要建一座工廠"、"我要僱用更多員工 "等，比讓客戶最終喜歡我們的產品勝過競爭對手的產品要容易得多。

The tricky thing about planning is that while you're planning, chances are at least one competitor is figuring out how to win.

規劃的棘手之處在於，當你在規劃時，很可能至少有一個競爭對手正在想辦法取勝。

When U.S. air carriers were busily planning what routes to fly and da, da, da, there was this little company in Texas called Southwest that had a strategy for winning.

當美國的航空公司還在忙著規劃航線時，德克薩斯州有一家名為西南航空的小公司已經制定了制勝戰略。

And at first that looked largely irrelevant because it was tiny.

起初，這看起來基本無關緊要，因為它太小了。

What Southwest Airlines was aiming for was an outcome.

西南航空公司所追求的是一種結果。

What they wanted to be is a substitute for Greyhound, a way more convenient way to get around at a price that wasn't extraordinarily much greater than a Greyhound bus.

他們希望成為灰狗巴士的替代品，以比灰狗巴士便宜得多的價格，提供更方便的出行方式。

Southwest said, everybody else is flying hub and spoke.

西南航空公司說，其他人都在飛樞紐和輻條。

They have hubs and they fly hub and spoke.

他們有輪轂，他們飛行輪轂和輻條。

We're going to fly point to point so that we don't have aircraft waiting on the ground because you only make money when you're in the air.

我們將點對點飛行，這樣就不會有飛機在地面等待，因為只有在空中飛行時才能賺錢。

We're going to only fly 737s, one kind of aircraft, so that our gates are set up for those, our systems are set up for those, our training, our simulations are set up.

我們只飛 737 這一種飛機，是以我們的登機口是為這種飛機設置的，我們的系統是為這種飛機設置的，我們的訓練和模擬也是為這種飛機設置的。

We're not going to offer meals on the flights because we're going to specialize in short flights.

我們不會在班機上提供餐食，因為我們將專注於短途班機。

We're not going to book through travel agents.

我們不打算通過旅行社預訂。

We're going to encourage people to book online because that's less expensive for everybody and more convenient.

我們將鼓勵人們在網上預訂，因為這對每個人來說都更便宜，也更方便。

So their strategy ended up being having a substantially lower cost than any of the major carriers so that they could offer substantially lower prices.

是以，他們的戰略最終是擁有比任何一家主要運營商都低得多的成本，這樣他們就能提供低得多的價格。

Because it had a way of winning, it got bigger and then bigger and then bigger and then bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger until it flies the most passenger seat miles in America.

因為它有辦法獲勝，所以它越做越大，然後越做越大，然後越做越大，然後越做越大，直到它成為全美飛行客座里程最多的航空公司。

The major carriers were not trying to win against one another.

主要運營商並沒有試圖相互競爭。

They were all playing to play, as I say.

正如我所說的那樣，他們都是為了比賽而比賽。

They were playing to participate.

他們是為了參與而比賽。

Maybe buy more planes, get more gates, maybe grow some, not having a theory of here's how we could be better than our competitors.

也許會購買更多的飛機，獲得更多的登機口，也許會有一些增長，而不是有一個 "我們如何才能比競爭對手做得更好 "的理論。

And that was fine until somebody came along and said, here's a way to be better than everybody else for this segment.

這種情況一直很好，直到有人說，有一種方法可以讓你在這個領域比別人做得更好。

And so that segment then goes, it's gone.

於是，這部分就沒了，沒了。

And the main playing to play players have to share a smaller pie that's left over after Southwest takes whatever share it wants.

而玩遊戲的主要玩家則必須分享西南航空公司想分多少就分多少後剩下的小餡餅。

If you're trying to escape this planning trap, this comfort trap of doing something that's comfortable but not good for you, how do you start?

如果你想擺脫這個計劃陷阱，這個做著舒服但對你沒好處的事情的舒適陷阱，你該如何開始呢？

The most important thing to recognize is that strategy will have angst associated with it.

最重要的是要認識到，戰略會帶來焦慮。

It'll make you feel somewhat nervous because as a manager, chances are you've been taught you should do things that you can prove in advance.

這會讓你感到有些緊張，因為作為一名管理者，你很可能被教導應該做一些可以事先證明的事情。

You can't prove in advance that your strategy will succeed.

你無法事先證明你的策略會成功。

You can look at a plan and say, well, all of these things are doable.

你可以看著計劃說，好吧，這些事情都是可行的。

Let's just do those because they're within our control.

我們就做這些吧，因為這些都在我們的控制範圍之內。

But they won't add up to much in strategy.

但在戰略上，它們不會有太大作用。

You have to say, if our theory is right about what we can do and how the market will react, this will position us in an excellent way.

你不得不說，如果我們的理論是正確的，我們能做什麼，市場會如何反應，這將使我們處於一個非常有利的位置。

Just accept the fact that you can't be perfect on that and you can't know for sure.

接受這個事實吧，你不可能做到完美，也無法確定。

And that is not being a bad manager.

這並不是一個糟糕的管理者。

That is being a great leader because you're giving your organization the chance to do something great.

這就是一個偉大的領導者，因為你給了你的組織做大事的機會。

The second thing I do is say, lay out the logic of your strategy clearly.

我要做的第二件事是，清楚地闡述你的戰略邏輯。

What would have to be true about ourselves, about the industry, about competition, about customers, for this strategy to work?

關於我們自己、關於行業、關於競爭、關於客戶，哪些情況是真實的？

Why do you do that?

你為什麼要這麼做？

It's because you can then watch the world unfold.

因為這樣你就能看到世界的發展。

And if something that you say is in the logic that would have to be true for this to work is not working out quite the way you hoped, it'll allow you to tweak your strategy.

而且，如果你說的邏輯中必須成立才能奏效的事情沒有像你希望的那樣奏效，你就可以調整你的策略。

And strategy is a journey.

戰略是一個旅程。

What you want to have is a mechanism for tweaking it, toning it, and refining it so it gets better and better as you go along.

你需要的是一種機制，對其進行調整、調節和完善，使其越變越好。

Another thing that helps with strategy is not letting it get overcomplicated.

另一個有助於制定戰略的方法是不要讓戰略變得過於複雜。

It's great if you can write your strategy on a single page.

如果能將戰略寫在一頁紙上，那就再好不過了。

Here's where we're choosing to play.

這就是我們選擇的比賽地點。

Here's how we're choosing to win.

下面是我們選擇獲勝的方式。

Here are the capabilities we need to have in place.

以下是我們需要具備的能力。

Here are the management systems.

這裡是管理系統。

And that's why it's going to achieve this goal, this aspiration that we have.

正因為如此，它才能實現我們的目標和願望。

Then you lay out the logic.

然後你再闡述邏輯。

What must be true for that all to work out the way we hope?

怎樣才能讓一切如我們所願？

Go do it and watch and tweak as you go along.

去做吧，邊做邊看邊調整。

That may feel somewhat more worry-making, angst-making than planning.

這可能會讓人覺得更多的是擔心和焦慮，而不是規劃。

But I would tell you that if you plan, that's a way to guarantee losing.

但我要告訴你，如果你計劃好了，那就是一種保證失敗的方法。

If you do strategy, it gives you the best possible chance of winning.

如果你採取了策略，就能獲得最大的獲勝機會。