Name: 卡達諾（ADA）--我們必須持有！（2025 年價格預測） (Cardano (ADA) - We Must Hold! (2025 Price Prediction))
Uploaded: 2024-08-03T00:12:00.000Z
Duration: 11 min 1 s

過去簡單式

So we went below the 50% extension again and we created another low.

是以，我們再次跌破 50%的延伸線，創造了另一個低點。

Now, I'm still not sure if the second wave right here is in.

現在，我還不確定第二波是否已經到來。

In my opinion, we could go down a bit more and maybe touch the 0.618 extension before starting the third wave right here.

我認為，我們可能會再下跌一些，也許會觸及 0.618 延長線，然後在這裡開始第三浪。

Because, I mean, right now this structure does not really look complete in my opinion.

因為，我的意思是，在我看來，現在這個結構看起來並不完整。

I mean, sure, we might have an ABC here but the ABC is not really complete so we might get another low.

我的意思是，當然，我們這裡可能會有一個 ABC，但 ABC 並不完整，所以我們可能會有另一個低點。

Now, to confirm that we will not get another low and to confirm that we bottomed right here, I need to see a break first above the 0.43 level and then to confirm that we are actually getting a third wave move to the upside which will go in this region right here, I need a break above this high right here at 0.45 and then above this high at 0.45.

現在，要確認我們不會再創新低，並確認我們在這裡見底，我需要看到我們首先突破 0.43 的水準，然後確認我們實際上正在進行第三波上行，這將在這個區域內進行，我需要我們突破 0.45 的高點，然後突破 0.45 的高點。

If we break above these levels, then yeah, I can confirm that something more bullish is going on.

如果我們突破了這些水準，那麼是的，我可以確認更多的看漲行情正在發生。

There's nothing to confirm because we got a small bounce right here as you can see but this could always fail.

沒有什麼可以確認的，因為我們在這裡得到了一個小反彈，正如你所看到的，但這總是會失敗的。

所以，是的，我在關注另一個低點。

I don't want the price to get to the 0.786 level at 35 cents.

我不希望價格達到 0.786 的水準，即 35 美分。

I think that would be a bit much but we could get in the middle or maybe exactly this extension right here.

我覺得這有點過了，但我們可以在中間位置，或者就在這個延長線上。

所以，是的，我們將拭目以待。

We are still below the bull market support band as you can see but there is one good thing about this.

如您所見，我們仍處於牛市支撐帶下方，但這也有一個好處。

So, at least on the 4-hour chart, we are currently oversold on the RSI.

是以，至少在 4 小時圖上，RSI 目前處於超賣狀態。

Well, we were oversold and I mean, if we check out what happened the previous times when we were oversold, for example here, the price went up about let's say 12% in two days and here we went up 43% in 14 days.

好吧，我們超賣了，我的意思是，如果我們看看之前超賣時發生了什麼，比如這裡，價格在兩天內上漲了大約 12%，而這裡我們在 14 天內上漲了 43%。

Now, I know these percentages are not nothing too crazy but you have to keep in mind that this is only the 4-hour chart.

現在，我知道這些百分比不算太離譜，但你必須記住，這只是 4 小時圖。

So, if we actually go on the daily, you'll see that the RSI is not really looking that impressive.

是以，如果我們實際看看日線，你會發現 RSI 看上去並不那麼令人印象深刻。

We are currently at an RSI of 44 and yeah, this looks a bit better than before our chart but even on the daily chart, this second wave move right here does not really look complete and it really looks like we'll get another low.

我們目前的 RSI 指數為 44，是的，這看起來比我們之前的圖表要好一些，但即使在日線圖上，這第二波的走勢看起來也並不完整，看起來我們會再創新低。

Now, let me remind you where we currently are in this cycle.

現在，讓我提醒大家我們目前所處的週期。

So, I believe the first wave move to the upside topped right here and it went up in five waves which is good and now, I'm not sure if the main second wave has bottomed here.

是以，我認為第一波上行就在這裡見頂，它分五個波段上升，這很好，現在我不確定主要的第二波是否已在這裡見底。

It might have bottomed but to confirm that it bottomed, we need to get above this previous high at 81 cents and we need to go above this high and form a first wave move to the upside in five waves and this first wave move to the upside will only be the first wave of this main third wave that I have on the chart.

它可能已經見底，但要確認它已經見底，我們需要突破 81 美分的前期高點，我們需要突破這一高點，並形成五浪中的第一浪上行，而這第一浪上行將只是我在圖表上看到的這一主要第三浪的第一浪。

So, in my opinion, there's still a lot of time left in this cycle at least for Carbano and there's a big chance in my opinion for the price to do another 10x from where we are at now.

是以，在我看來，至少對 Carbano 來說，這個週期還剩下很多時間，在我看來，它的價格很有可能在現在的基礎上再翻 10 倍。

Now, of course, that's not financial advice.

You should do your own research but yeah.

你應該自己研究一下，不過是的。

Also, something very important, if we do break this 0.786 level right here, we'll most likely invalidate this first wave move to the upside and that will mean that we'll most likely get another low in the second wave right here in the C-wave and we'll go below the 31.8 cent level.

此外，還有一件非常重要的事情，如果我們突破了 0.786 的水準，我們很可能會使第一波的上行走勢失效，這將意味著我們很可能會在第二波的 C 浪中再創新低，我們將跌破 31.8 美分的水準。

So, watch the support level very closely because if we fail, then we'll get another low which would not be bearish but we would go below the 0.786, the main 0.786 extension again so yeah.

是以，要密切關注支撐位，因為如果失守，我們就會再創新低，這不是看跌，但我們會再次跌破 0.786，即主要的 0.786 延長線，所以是的。

I mean, if we keep putting in lower lows, we are going to invalidate this first wave move to the upside at about 22 cents.

我的意思是，如果我們繼續創出更低的低點，那麼我們將在大約 22 美分時使第一波上行走勢失效。

So, we cannot really afford to put in more lower lows and I really want to see the price actually do something.

是以，我們真的無法承受更多的低點，我真的希望看到價格真正有所作為。

Now, let's go on the monthly chart for a bit.

So, a new month just started and as you can see, in June and July we actually closed below the yellow line on the RSI which is kind of weird.

新的一個月剛剛開始，正如你所看到的，在 6 月和 7 月，我們實際上收盤價低於 RSI 的黃線，這有點奇怪。

If you can remember, I was comparing this move right here, the first wave and the second wave, to what happened in the previous cycle right here and yeah, in the previous cycle, the RSI did not go below the yellow line but in this cycle it did but I don't know if you can also remember but in some of my previous videos, I mentioned that we were supposed to go up in a third wave right here.

如果你還記得，我把這裡的走勢，即第一浪和第二浪，與上一個週期發生的情況進行了比較，是的，在上一個週期，RSI 沒有跌破黃線，但在這個週期，它跌破了黃線，但我不知道你是否還記得，在我之前的一些視頻中，我提到我們應該在第三浪中上漲。

So, this was the first wave, then we got a second wave move down, the third wave started and my opinion was supposed to break above this previous high right here but then the pandemic got to us and it pretty much invalidated the first wave move high and we had to restart this whole move.

所以，這是第一波，然後我們有了第二波下跌，第三波開始了，我認為應該突破這裡的前期高點，但大流行病影響了我們，它幾乎使第一波的高點失效，我們不得不重新開始整個走勢。

If you look at it that way, then maybe, maybe just maybe, this move right here looks more similar to what we are getting right now.

如果你這樣看，那麼也許，也許只是也許，這裡的移動看起來與我們現在得到的更相似。

我的意思是，也有可能是這樣。

This whole move is kind of questionable though because if we look at it, I mean, it almost got invalidated.

不過，這整個舉動有點值得商榷，因為如果我們看看它，我的意思是，它差點就失效了。

It did not get invalidated so the invalidation point was at about 0.027 cents and the second wave went to about 0.030 cents so yeah, it was very close to being invalidated but somehow it managed to recover and get back above the bull market support band after being below it for actually about six months and then the pandemic came and yeah, it failed.

它沒有失效，所以失效點大約在 0.027 美分，第二波大約到了 0.030 美分，所以是的，它非常接近失效，但不知何故，它設法恢復了，並在低於牛市支撐帶約六個月後回到了支撐帶上方，然後大流行病來了，是的，它失敗了。

So, right now we have been below the bull market support band for about five months.

是以，現在我們已經在牛市支撐帶下方待了大約五個月。

So, if what happened right here repeats itself, we could get another low on the price and stay below the bull market support band in August and in September.

是以，如果這裡發生的情況重演，我們的價格可能會再創新低，並在 8 月和 9 月持續低於牛市支撐帶。

Now, I do not want to see that happen but if it does happen, then it's going to be very similar to what happened here but you have to keep in mind that if we do that, there's a big chance that we invalidate this whole first wave move to the upside that we got.

現在，我不希望看到這種情況發生，但如果真的發生了，那麼它將與這裡發生的情況非常相似，但你必須記住，如果我們這樣做了，我們就很有可能使我們得到的整個第一波上行走勢失效。

So, maybe we'll do that but I don't, do not really want to see it but if we do, then we might as well do it right now because I mean, what is there to lose?

所以，也許我們會這麼做，但我並不真的想看到它，但如果我們做了，那麼我們不妨現在就做，因為我的意思是，有什麼損失呢？

And if you check out what happened here on the RSI, so we don't have data for where the yellow line was right here but if we go on the daily and we compare that, so as you can see, here we went above the yellow line on the RSI and then we dropped below it for a few months.

如果你看看這裡的 RSI 發生了什麼，我們沒有這裡黃線位置的數據，但如果我們在日線上進行比較，你可以看到，這裡我們在 RSI 的黃線上方，然後我們在黃線下方跌了幾個月。

Actually, that's like, let's say about four months before we actually managed to get back above it and if we compare that move to what's happening right now in this cycle right here, we'll see that this move looks actually very, very similar.

如果我們將這一走勢與現在這個週期中發生的情況進行比較，就會發現這一走勢實際上非常非常相似。

I mean, it looks so similar in fact that it's kind of weird.

我的意思是，事實上，它看起來如此相似，以至於有點奇怪。

So, here we did this, this kind of U-structure on your side and now we pretty much did the same thing which is kind of weird, don't you think?

所以，我們在這裡做了這個，你那邊的這種 U 型結構，現在我們幾乎做了同樣的事情，這有點奇怪，你不覺得嗎？

So, this whole move looks very similar to what's happening right now and if we are to repeat what happened here, right now we are currently here.

是以，整個行動看起來與現在發生的事情非常相似，如果我們要重複這裡發生的事情，現在我們就在這裡。

So, and in this move that happened right here looks very similar to what happened there.

是以，發生在這裡的這一舉動看起來與那裡發生的非常相似。

So, right now we are still above the yellow line on the RSI and if we do drop below it again and we close below it, then we might do something like we did over here and it might drop a bit more before going above it again and then dropping below it again and then we'll get a third wave move to the upside.

是以，現在我們仍在 RSI 黃線上方，如果我們再次跌破黃線，並且收盤價低於黃線，那麼我們可能會像剛才那樣，在再次突破黃線之前再跌一點，然後再次跌破黃線，然後我們將迎來第三波上行。

Like I said, this whole move is kind of questionable but it looks very similar to what we had in the previous cycle, at least before the whole move got invalidated.

就像我說的，整個行動都有問題，但它看起來與上一個週期的行動非常相似，至少在整個行動失效之前是這樣。

Also, another interesting fact is, I mean, the RSI pretty much dropped to the exact same level as right here.

此外，另一個有趣的事實是，我的意思是，RSI 指數幾乎下降到了與此處完全相同的水準。

So, in the previous cycle the RSI in the second wave pretty much dropped to about 36 and in this cycle it dropped to like 35.

是以，在前一個週期中，第二波的 RSI 差不多降到了 36 左右，而在這個週期中，它降到了 35 左右。

So, that's also something interesting that you need to think about.

所以，這也是你需要考慮的有趣之處。

Maybe we're copying this move right here and not this move right here.

也許我們是在模仿這個動作，而不是這個動作。

Because like I said, I think the pandemic impacted the price in a big way.

因為正如我所說，我認為大流行病對價格影響很大。

I think the price was actually supposed to go a bit higher than just $3.10.

我想，價格其實應該比 3.10 美元更高一些。

I think it was supposed to get to the $2.618 or maybe even the $3.618.

我認為它應該達到 2.618 美元，甚至是 3.618 美元。

But, I mean, the $3.618 is at about $4.8.

但是，我的意思是，3.618 美元的價格約為 4.8 美元。

So, maybe not that, maybe like in the middle.

所以，也許不是這樣，也許就像在中間。

So, in my opinion, Canado would have gone to about $4 to $5 in the previous cycle if it weren't for the pandemic.

是以，在我看來，如果不是因為大流行病，卡那多在上一個週期可能會漲到 4 到 5 美元左右。

So, if we do not get this kind of drop in this cycle, and by the way, this drop only happened because of the pandemic.

是以，如果我們在這個週期內沒有這種下降，順便說一句，這種下降只是因為大流行病才發生的。

If we do not get this, then maybe the cycle will be more bullish than the previous cycle and we will manage to actually get to at least the $2.618 trend-based Fibonacci extension.

如果我們不能實現這一點，那麼本輪週期可能會比上一輪週期更加看漲，我們將設法實際達到至少 2.618 美元的基於趨勢的斐波納契擴展位。

So, yeah, but I cannot confirm that until I see a third wave move to the upside.

所以，是的，但在我看到第三浪上行之前，我無法確認這一點。

Ideally, the third wave should top at least at the $1.618 level at around $5.30 to copy what happened in the previous cycle.

理想情況下，第三浪的頂部至少應在 1.618 美元的水準，即 5.30 美元左右，以複製前一週期的情況。

So, in the previous cycle, we got rejected by the $1.618, then we went in a fourth wave, and then we got a fifth wave to finish the cycle.

是以，在前一個週期中，我們被 1.618 美元拒之門外，然後我們進入了第四浪，然後我們得到了一個第五浪來完成這個週期。

So, I mean, I see no reason why something like this could not happen again.

所以，我的意思是，我看不出為什麼這樣的事情不會再次發生。

Also, in the third wave, we got above the 100% extension, the Fibonacci replacement, and yeah, then we pretty much used it as support.

此外，在第三浪中，我們突破了 100% 延伸線，即斐波那契替代線，是的，然後我們幾乎將其作為支撐。

So, if we want to do this again, we need to get above the previous all-time high in the third wave and ideally get to around $5.30.

是以，如果我們想再次這樣做，我們需要在第三浪中突破之前的歷史高點，最好能達到 5.30 美元左右。

So, the third wave should top, let's say, between $3.16 and $5.30.

是以，第三浪的頂部應該在 3.16 美元至 5.30 美元之間。

If it tops earlier, if it tops at like, let's say, the $0.618 level, then yeah, we will most likely not get to the $2.618 in this cycle.

如果它提前見頂，比如說在 0.618 美元的水準見頂，那麼是的，我們很可能在這個週期內無法達到 2.618 美元。

And we'll only get to the $1.618 or maybe even something a bit lower, like the $1.272.

而我們只能達到 1.618 美元，甚至可能更低一些，比如 1.272 美元。

But yeah, I will make sure to update you on what's happening.

不過，我會確保向你們通報最新進展的。

And if anything crazy happens, of course, I will make a video about it.

當然，如果有什麼瘋狂的事情發生，我也會拍成視頻。

And I make almost daily updates about Cardano.

我幾乎每天都會更新有關 Cardano 的資訊。

So, if you like them, maybe subscribe and like, and maybe even check out our Patreon for some exclusive videos.

所以，如果你喜歡這些視頻，也許可以訂閱並點贊，甚至可以看看我們的 Patreon，獲取一些獨家視頻。