Not just around Eurasia, which he conquered and ruled for decades.

不僅僅是歐亞大陸，他征服並統治了歐亞大陸數十年。

But, you know, like, around.

但是，你知道，就像，周圍。

We don't know for sure how many children he had, but historians suggest it was a lot.

我們不清楚他有多少個孩子，但歷史學家認為有很多。

So many, in fact, that some studies, and pretty much all of the internet, have claimed that a huge number of people in Central and East Asia today are his direct descendants.

事實上，他的後裔如此之多，以至於一些研究和幾乎所有的網路都聲稱，今天中亞和東亞的大量人口都是他的直系後裔。

But before you go around telling everybody you know who you're great, great, great, add, like, 25 more great-great-grandfather was, let's do a deeper dive into how this idea came about and how likely it really is.

不過，在你到處告訴你認識的每個人你的曾曾曾曾祖父是誰之前，讓我們先深入瞭解一下這個想法是如何產生的，以及它的可能性到底有多大。[♪ INTRO ♪)]

Genetic change within a population typically happens a few ways.

種群內的基因變化通常有幾種方式。

Natural selection and random chance both juggle the frequency of gene variants and how likely they are to show up in a given individual.

自然選擇和隨機機會都會影響基因變異的頻率以及它們在特定個體中出現的可能性。

Certain genes could also turn up more frequently, thanks to a prolific breeder passing on their DNA at a high rate, much like Genghis Khan was suspected to be doing.

某些基因也可能更頻繁地出現，這要歸功於多產的育種者將其 DNA 大量遺傳，就像成吉思汗被懷疑所做的那樣。

So if we want to know how many of his descendants are running around today, we have to trace the source of genetic changes in human populations.

如果我們想知道今天有多少他的後代在四處奔波，就必須追溯人類種群基因變化的源頭。

The Y chromosome would be a great place to start with this, because it's passed on by a single parent and does not swap its DNA with its paired X chromosome.

Y 染色體是一個很好的切入點，因為它由單親遺傳，不會與配對的 X 染色體交換 DNA。

That makes it an exception compared to autosomes, or non-sex chromosomes, which like to trade bits of genetic material with their matching counterparts just to keep things spicy when those genes are passed on to offspring.

與常染色體或無性染色體相比，它是一個例外，因為常染色體喜歡與匹配的對應染色體交換一些遺傳物質，以便在這些基因傳給後代時保持活躍。

So unlike others, the Y chromosome stays intact over many generations, making it relatively easy to use to trace its ancestral origin.

與其他染色體不同的是，Y 染色體在許多代人中都保持完好無損，是以相對容易用來追溯其祖先的起源。

A 2003 paper looked at the DNA variation in the Y chromosome of thousands of individuals from Central Asia to the Pacific.

2003 年的一篇論文研究了從中亞到太平洋地區數千人的 Y 染色體 DNA 變異情況。

And their results showed that about 8% of their participants had the same Y chromosome haplotype. This means they belong to the same broad group.

結果顯示，約有 8%的參與者具有相同的 Y 染色體單倍型。這意味著他們屬於同一個大群體。

Their Y chromosomes might not be totally identical, but they all come from the same ancestor.

他們的 Y 染色體可能不完全相同，但都來自同一個祖先。

8% is a lot, especially across such a large area.

8% 是一個很大的數字，尤其是在這麼大的區域內。

It's something the researchers would be more likely to see if they were working with a small, isolated population.

如果研究人員的研究對象是小規模的孤立人群，他們更有可能看到這種情況。

But instead, it was like most of Asia.

但是，這裡卻和亞洲大部分地區一樣。

And their findings suggested a single lineage was responsible for those 8% of people.

他們的研究結果表明，這 8%的人是由一個單一的血統造成的。

From there, the team used models to consider population dynamics and genetic mutation.

在此基礎上，研究小組利用模型來考慮種群動態和基因突變。

And long story short, they traced this haplotype to a probable common ancestor about a thousand years ago, likely in Mongolia.

長話短說，他們將這種單倍型追溯到大約一千年前的一個可能的共同祖先，很可能在蒙古。

And then they asked themselves, who's a person who lived around then who was incredibly reproductively successful? And they came up with Genghis Khan.

然後他們問自己，當時生活在附近的人中，誰的生殖能力驚人地成功？他們想到了成吉思汗。

After all, reigning from Eastern Europe to the Sea of Japan is bound to have some lasting influence on civilization, not just culturally, but also genetically.

畢竟，從東歐到日本海的統治必然會對文明產生一些持久的影響，不僅是文化上的，還有基因上的。

He's known to have had many wives and many, many concubines over the years, which some scholars say may have numbered in the hundreds.

眾所周知，他多年來有很多妻妾，有些學者說可能多達數百人。

That said, we don't know how many children he actually had, as only four of his sons with his first wife were designated as his heirs.

儘管如此，我們並不知道他究竟有多少子女，因為他與第一任妻子所生的兒子中只有四個被指定為繼承人。

And the thing is, we don't have any way of knowing if this Y chromosome haplogroup is actually connected to Genghis Khan, because we don't have access to his DNA, since his remains were buried in secret and have never been found.

問題是，我們沒有辦法知道這個 Y 染色體單倍群是否真的與成吉思汗有關，因為我們無法獲得他的 DNA，因為他的遺骸被祕密埋葬，從未被發現。

Basically, the researchers were guessing.

基本上，研究人員是在猜測。

It was a decent guess, and credit where it's due, it got their work plenty of attention. But still a guess.

這是個不錯的猜測，值得稱讚的是，它讓他們的作品受到了廣泛關注。但仍然只是猜測。

Still, their research has been continually referenced over the years as proof of the Great Khan's genetic legacy and the likelihood that you may be related to him.

儘管如此，他們的研究多年來一直被作為大汗遺傳遺產的證據，以及你可能與大汗有血緣關係的可能性。

But a 2018 study challenged this link to Genghis Khan.

但 2018 年的一項研究對這種與成吉思汗的關聯提出了質疑。

They set out to take a closer look at the Y-chromosome group described in the earlier study and compare it to closely related Y-group lineages.

他們開始仔細研究早先研究中描述的 Y 染色體組，並將其與密切相關的 Y 組系進行比較。

They also ramped up the sample size to over 18,000 from 292 populations, collecting new samples from thousands of individuals on top of using previously published Y-chromosome sequences.

他們還將樣本量增加到來自 292 個人群的 18,000 多份樣本，除了使用以前公佈的 Y 染色體序列外，還從數千個個體中收集了新樣本。

Their results told a different story.

他們的結果卻說出了一個不同的故事。

They determined this haplotype was older than previously thought, originating nearly 2,600 years ago, long before Genghis Khan was around.

他們確定這種單倍型比以前想象的要古老，起源於近 2600 年前，遠在成吉思汗出現之前。

They also showed that people most likely to be the true descendants of Genghis Khan belong to a different haplotype.

他們還發現，最有可能成為成吉思汗真正後裔的人屬於不同的單倍型。

They did this not just using DNA evidence, but historical records that describe where Genghis Khan sent his troops, including his kids, but also people he was not related to.

他們不僅利用 DNA 證據，還利用了歷史記錄，這些記錄描述了成吉思汗將他的軍隊派往何處，包括他的孩子，也包括與他沒有血緣關係的人。

And the 8% haplogroup corresponded with the not-related folks.

而 8%的單倍群與不相關的人相對應。

They concluded that the big Y haplogroup instead represents the ancestral expansion of the Mongolic-speaking peoples.

他們的結論是，大 Y 單倍群反而代表了蒙語民族祖先的擴張。

So, as one of the founder Y-chromosome lineages in Mongol peoples, its success is due more to overall expansion of Mongol populations than one guy having a lot of kids.

作為蒙古人的 Y 染色體創始系之一，它的成功更多是由於蒙古人種群的整體擴張，而不是一個人有了很多孩子。

But also, while the Y-chromosome can help us determine direct lineage, it does have its drawbacks.

不過，Y 染色體雖然可以幫助我們確定直系血統，但也有其缺點。

Y-chromosome studies only trace ancestry via a single parent lineage, leaving out the other genetic half completely, so it can paint an incomplete picture of relatedness.

Y 染色體研究只能通過單親血統追溯祖先，而完全忽略了另一半基因，是以它所描繪的親緣關係並不完整。

That said, when we're not focused solely on sex chromosomes, our genetic material can be harder to track because chromosomes recombine all over the place.

儘管如此，當我們不只關注性染色體時，我們的遺傳物質可能更難追蹤，因為染色體會到處重組。

But there is a workaround.

但有一個變通辦法。

We can also trace ancestry by looking at identical by descent, or IBD, regions.

我們還可以通過血統相同或 IBD 地區來追溯祖先。

IBD regions are any single piece of DNA that is passed down from a common ancestor without being fully genetically reshuffled.

IBD 區域是指從共同祖先那裡流傳下來的、沒有經過完全基因重組的任何單個 DNA 片段。

These IBD fragments get smaller and more mixed up over generations as they get split up and combined back together in offspring.

這些 IBD 片段會隨著後代的分裂和組合而變得越來越小，越來越混雜。

In the end, we are all made up of a patchwork of IBDs.

歸根結底，我們都是由各種 IBD 組成的。

And they can tell a tale of common distant ancestors as we look for shared patterns.

在我們尋找共同模式的過程中，它們還能講述共同遠祖的故事。

A 2020 study rather ambitiously attempted to trace the interrelatedness of all humankind using this technique.

2020 年的一項研究雄心勃勃地試圖利用這一技術追溯全人類的相互聯繫。

Good on ya! Take on the big tasks!

好樣的！承擔重大任務！

They compared about 17 million IBD fragments tracing common ancestors across 200,000 years.

他們比較了約 1700 萬個 IBD 片段，追溯了 20 萬年來的共同祖先。

And what they found were nine distinct human genetics regions.

他們發現了九個不同的人類遺傳學區域。

East and West Africa, Northern Europe, the Arctic, East Asia,

東非和西非、北歐、北極、東亞、

Oceania, South Asia, the Middle East, and South America.

大洋洲、南亞、中東和南美洲。

And these populations shared way more IBD bits with each other than with neighbors from other regions.

而這些人群之間的 IBD 位數共享程度遠遠高於與其他地區的鄰居之間的共享程度。

They also found that the center of Eurasia is the most genetically mixed geographic region in the world.

他們還發現，歐亞大陸中心是世界上基因最混雜的地理區域。

And this makes a lot of sense.

這很有道理。

For thousands of years, this central region was a hotspot for extensive trading and migration, as well as conquests between otherwise distant and remote regions.

數千年來，這個中部地區一直是貿易和移民的熱點地區，也是遙遠地區之間相互征服的熱點地區。

So even though gene flow is relatively limited by geography, we still interbreed wherever we cross paths and our genes move around.

即使基因流動受到地理環境的相對限制，我們仍然會在有交集的地方進行雜交，我們的基因也會四處流動。

Okay, back to Genghis Khan.

好了，說回成吉思汗。

These researchers did specifically look for genetic evidence of the Mongol Empire through this Middle Eurasia region, as well as other areas they occupied at length.

這些研究人員確實專門通過歐亞大陸中部地區以及他們長期佔領的其他地區尋找蒙古帝國的遺傳證據。

They compared the DNA of Tatars, who they describe as the likely descendants of Mongols, to people living in the Middle East, Russia, and Europe.

他們將韃靼人的 DNA 與生活在中東、俄羅斯和歐洲的人進行了比較，他們認為韃靼人很可能是蒙古人的後裔。

And despite these regions having been bordered or directly occupied by the Mongols at some point or another, modern Tatars were more closely related to European populations than those in East Asia.

儘管這些地區曾經與蒙古接壤或被蒙古人直接佔領，但現代韃靼人與歐洲人的關係比東亞人更為密切。

Now, using modern Tatars as their Mongol DNA sample gets complicated, because even though the term Tatar has historically been linked directly with the Mongol Empire, this may not be an accurate account of their very complex history and ancestry.

現在，使用現代韃靼人作為他們的蒙古 DNA 樣本變得複雜起來，因為儘管韃靼一詞在歷史上與蒙古帝國直接相關，但這可能並不是對他們非常複雜的歷史和祖先的準確描述。

But what the study did find was that present-day Central Asia was comparatively very tightly related to East Asian populations.

但研究確實發現，今天的中亞與東亞人口的關係相對非常密切。

Given that trading along the Silk Route had connected Eastern Asia with the West since the second century, it makes sense that Genghis Khan's empire wasn't showing up as the main genetic influence between these regions.

鑑於自公元二世紀以來，絲綢之路上的貿易將東亞與西方連接起來，成吉思汗的帝國沒有成為這些地區之間的主要遺傳影響也就在情理之中了。

They were pretty connected already.

他們之間的聯繫已經非常緊密了。

That said, for a time, the Mongol Empire controlled 16% of the total landmass of Earth.

也就是說，蒙古帝國曾一度控制了地球陸地總面積的 16%。

So their expansion did play a major role in expediting trade exchanges between these regions.

他們的擴張確實在加快這些地區之間的貿易交流方面發揮了重要作用。

So they certainly still get credit where credit is due.

他們當然還是功不可沒。

What the study was able to show is that many groups of humans share IBD regions with many other groups of humans, no matter where they're from.

研究結果表明，許多人類群體與許多其他人類群體共享 IBD 區域，無論他們來自哪裡。

That means, even if your ancestors have largely stayed put generation after generation, there's still a great chance that you share at least some IBD fragments with folks from distant corners of the globe.

這意味著，即使你的祖先一代又一代地留在原地，你仍然很有可能與來自地球遙遠角落的人至少分享一些 IBD 片段。

And it is especially likely that you share DNA with someone living in Central Asia, since they're the most likely to be carrying genes from, you know, basically everywhere, whether that's South America or the Arctic Circle.

你與生活在中亞的人共享 DNA 的可能性尤其大，因為他們最有可能攜帶來自，你知道的，基本上所有地方的基因，無論是南美洲還是北極圈。

We are all related, and we are all especially related to Central Asia.

我們息息相關，尤其與中亞息息相關。

In the end, none of these techniques can tell you if you are directly descended from Genghis Khan, given that we don't even have his DNA.

歸根結底，這些技術都無法告訴你你是否是成吉思汗的直接後裔，因為我們甚至沒有他的 DNA。

But they can tell you a lot about the wide range of populations you share ancestry with, no matter where in the world you are from.

但是，無論你來自世界何處，它們都能告訴你許多關於與你共享祖先的廣泛人群的資訊。

And at the end of the day, I guess there is still a chance that your DNA does, in fact, harbor some deep tie to Genghis Khan.

說到底，我想你的 DNA 還是有可能與成吉思汗有著某種深厚的聯繫。

But that's not simply because he had a lot of kids.

但這不僅僅是因為他有很多孩子。

It's because his empire existed in a time and in a place where people traveled to and fro for centuries.

這是因為他的帝國存在於一個時代，存在於一個人們幾個世紀來往來穿梭的地方。

All that is to say, humans are humans.

總之，人就是人。

There's nothing that can truly wall us off into separate, distinct groups because we have such a rich genetic history woven together across the globe over hundreds of thousands of years.

沒有什麼能真正將我們劃分為不同的、截然不同的群體，因為我們有如此豐富的遺傳歷史，數十萬年來在全球各地交織在一起。