It can fly 267 kilometers per hour and has advanced radar and torpedoes specifically designed to find and destroy submarines.

它能以每小時 267 公里的速度飛行，擁有先進的雷達和魚雷，專門用於發現和摧毀潛艇。

In 2015, the government of Taiwan asked to purchase 12 of them from the United States.

2015 年，臺灣政府要求從美國購買 12 架。

Taiwan wanted these helicopters in order to defend themselves against a potential invasion from China, which has a massive submarine fleet.

臺灣希望獲得這些直升機，以抵禦中國的潛在入侵，因為中國擁有龐大的潛艇艦隊。

The U.S. has for decades sold Taiwan a huge variety of its weapons, so this was a routine request.

幾十年來，美國向臺灣出售了大量武器，是以這是一個例行要求。

But in 2022, the deal suddenly collapsed.

但到了 2022 年，這筆交易突然破裂。

Reporting revealed that the U.S. was actually not responding to its request and even pushing

報告顯示，美國實際上並沒有迴應其請求，甚至還在推動

Taiwan to not buy them.

臺灣不買。

And it's because the U.S. has become very concerned that Taiwan's strategy for defending itself from an invasion has some major flaws.

這是因為美國非常擔心臺灣抵禦入侵的戰略存在重大缺陷。

I think would have been the first time that the United States formally denied a Taiwanese request for something.

我認為這將是美國第一次正式拒絕臺灣的請求。

The consensus is Taiwan needs to do much more to show that it is addressing this with urgency.

大家的共識是，臺灣需要做更多的工作來表明它正在緊急處理這一問題。

So what is Taiwan's plan to fight off a Chinese invasion?

那麼，臺灣有什麼計劃來抵禦中國的入侵呢？

And why is the U.S. trying to change it?

為什麼美國要試圖改變它？

The conflict between China and Taiwan started almost a century ago.

中國和臺灣之間的衝突始於近一個世紀前。

In 1927, Chinese communists loyal to Mao Zedong began fighting against the nationalist government ruled by Chiang Kai-shek and his allies.

1927 年，忠於毛澤東的中國共產黨人開始與蔣介石及其盟友統治的國民政府作戰。

More than 6 million people died in the ensuing civil war.

在隨後的內戰中，600 多萬人喪生。

In 1949, the communist army won, and the nationalists fled to Taiwan, just 130 kilometers offshore.

1949 年，共產黨軍隊取得勝利，國民黨逃往離岸僅 130 公里的臺灣。

On the mainland, the communists established the People's Republic of China, which, for the sake of clarity, we'll call China, while the nationalists set up their own authoritarian regime called the Republic of China, which we'll call Taiwan.

在大陸，共產黨建立了中華人民共和國，為了清楚起見，我們稱之為中國，而民族主義者建立了他們自己的專制政權，稱之為中華民國，我們稱之為臺灣。

But the war never ended, with each side continuing to claim that they were the legitimate government of both Taiwan and the mainland, and threatening, eventually, to reunify with the other.

但戰爭從未結束，雙方都繼續聲稱自己是臺灣和大陸的合法政府，並威脅最終要與對方統一。

The United States originally sided with the nationalists in 1954, then signed a mutual defense pact with them, promising to defend Taiwan if China invaded.

1954 年，美國最初站在民族主義者一邊，隨後與他們簽署了共同防禦條約，承諾如果中國入侵臺灣，美國將保衛臺灣。

It then positioned American troops and weapons on the island.

隨後，美國在島上部署了軍隊和武器。

But about 20 years later, the U.S. wanted to improve its relationship with China.

但大約 20 年後，美國希望改善與中國的關係。

So in 1979, it formally recognized it as the country's legitimate government.

是以，1979 年，美國正式承認它為該國的合法政府。

It then pulled its troops out of Taiwan, and ended its official promise to defend it.

隨後，它從臺灣撤軍，結束了保衛臺灣的官方承諾。

In its place, the U.S. passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which was a promise to maintain trade and cultural relations with Taiwan, but crucially not a promise to defend the island in the event of a Chinese attack.

取而代之的是美國通過了《臺灣關係法》，承諾與臺灣保持貿易和文化關係，但關鍵是沒有承諾在中國進攻臺灣時保衛臺灣。

It leaves ambiguous whether the United States would actually intervene directly on Taiwan's behalf.

美國是否真的會直接代表臺灣進行干預，這一點並不明確。

David Sachs is a fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

戴維-薩克斯（David Sachs）是美國外交關係委員會的亞洲研究員。

Because of U.S. ambiguity, Taiwan assumes that the United States will not come to its defense.

由於美國的模稜兩可，臺灣認為美國不會為其辯護。

Instead, the law promises that the U.S. will sell Taiwan all the weapons it needs to defend itself.

相反，法律承諾美國將向臺灣出售其自衛所需的所有武器。

So in the 80s and 90s, Taiwan started submitting requests to buy weapons, and the U.S. government approved them.

是以，在上世紀八九十年代，臺灣開始提出購買武器的申請，美國政府準許了這些申請。

It bought fighter jets, tanks, attack helicopters, missiles, and even ships.

它購買了戰鬥機、坦克、攻擊直升機、飛彈，甚至船隻。

These were some of the most advanced and expensive weapons that the U.S. had to offer.

這些都是美國所能提供的最先進、最昂貴的武器。

These M60 tanks cost more than a million dollars each, F-16 fighter jets cost about 40 million dollars each, and these ships cost upwards of 300 million dollars.

這些 M60 坦克每輛造價超過 100 萬美元，F-16 戰鬥機每架造價約 4000 萬美元，而這些軍艦造價高達 3 億多美元。

But the U.S. and Taiwan both agreed that these weapons gave Taiwan an advantage against China's likely invasion strategy.

但美國和臺灣都認為，這些武器為臺灣抵禦中國可能的入侵戰略提供了優勢。

At the time, China would likely begin its invasion by sending its troops across the strait in ships.

當時，中國很可能會派軍隊乘船穿越海峽，開始入侵。

But while it had millions more soldiers than Taiwan, it had relatively few advanced weapons to protect them.

但是，雖然它比臺灣多了數百萬阿兵哥，但保護他們的先進武器卻相對較少。

So as they crossed the strait, Taiwan's jets, ships, and missiles could easily attack them.

是以，當他們穿越海峽時，臺灣的噴氣式飛機、艦船和飛彈可以輕而易舉地攻擊他們。

Any Chinese troops that made it across would quickly run into Taiwan's defenses, including its tanks.

任何中國軍隊如果越過臺灣，都會很快遭遇臺灣的防禦，包括坦克。

As Taiwan stalled China, its second advantage, the United States, could decide to intervene and move in its military, giving Taiwan a high chance of successfully repelling a Chinese invasion.

在臺灣拖住中國的同時，它的第二大優勢--美國--可能會決定介入並調動軍隊，使臺灣有很大機會成功擊退中國的入侵。

The key variable here when we're thinking about U.S. intervention on Taiwan's behalf is time.

當我們考慮美國代表臺灣進行干預時，關鍵的變量是時間。

How long it can withstand a PRC attack.

它能抵禦中華人民共和國的攻擊多久。

So through the 1990s, Taiwan kept spending its money on U.S.-made aircraft, tanks, and ships in preparation for that scenario.

是以，在整個 20 世紀 90 年代，臺灣一直把錢花在美國製造的飛機、坦克和艦艇上，為這種情況做準備。

But across the strait, China was changing its strategy, and fast.

但在海峽對岸，中國正在迅速改變戰略。

Hey, I'm Sam Ellis.

嘿，我是山姆-埃利斯

Welcome back to Search Party.

歡迎回到 "搜索派對"。

Today's episode is brought to you by Incogni.

今天的節目由 Incogni 為您帶來。

Today data breaches are becoming very common.

如今，數據洩露已變得非常普遍。

And it's because of these hundreds of data brokers that collect our information and they hold it.

正是因為有了這些數以百計的數據掮客，我們的資訊才會被他們收集和掌握。

And it's not just our names either.

這也不僅僅是我們的名字。

It's also our social security numbers.

這也是我們的社會保障號碼。

It's our location activity, our login credentials, and our online activity.

這是我們的位置活動、登錄憑證和在線活動。

These data brokers take all the information, they package it up, and they sell it off.

這些數據經紀人獲取所有資訊，然後打包出售。

If you haven't heard, it's a pretty lucrative market out there for our personal data.

如果你還沒聽說，我們的個人數據市場利潤豐厚。

Luckily, we have the right to take our data back.

幸運的是，我們有權收回我們的數據。

Incogni makes it really easy for you to do it.

Incogni 可以讓您輕鬆做到這一點。

To get started, it's just three easy steps.

要開始使用，只需三個簡單的步驟。

First, we create an Incogni account and tell it whose personal data we want to remove.

首先，我們創建一個 Incogni 賬戶，並告訴它我們想刪除哪些個人數據。

Second, we'll grant Incogni the right to work on our behalf, so they'll contact the data brokers and request the removal of our personal information.

其次，我們將授予 Incogni 代表我們工作的權利，是以他們會聯繫數據經紀商，要求刪除我們的個人信息。

Third is the best part.

第三是最精彩的部分。

We can sit back, relax, and let Incogni handle any objections from data brokers.

我們可以坐下來，放鬆一下，讓 Incogni 來處理來自數據經紀人的任何反對意見。

And they'll keep us updated every step of the way.

他們會隨時向我們通報每一步的進展情況。

I've been using it for a few months now and it's been a relief and kind of fun to see

我使用它已經有幾個月了，看到它讓我感到欣慰和有趣

Incogni take my name off of all these lists.

因科尼，把我的名字從這些名單上去掉。

And right now they're making it really easy for you to do the same.

現在，他們正在為您提供同樣的便利。

Incogni.com slash search party.

Incogni.com 斜槓搜索方。

If you use the code search party, you'll get 60% off their annual plan.

如果使用代碼 search party，您將獲得年度計劃六折優惠。

All the information you need is in the description below.

您需要的所有資訊都在下面的說明中。

And there's a bonus.

還有一個獎勵。

Incogni even takes care of those weird people search sites.

Incogni 甚至還能處理那些奇怪的人員搜索網站。

Those are the sites that create detailed personal profiles on millions of Americans.

這些網站為數百萬美國人建立了詳細的個人檔案。

Incogni makes sure that your information won't end up on one of those sites.

Incogni 確保您的資訊不會出現在這些網站上。

Again, I've been using Incogni for a few months now.

同樣，我使用 Incogni 已經有幾個月了。

I've seen it work.

我見過它的效果。

I really do recommend you give them a try.

我真的建議您試一試。

Incogni.com slash search party.

Incogni.com 斜槓搜索方。

If you use the code search party, you get 60% off their annual plan.

如果使用代碼 "search party"，其年度計劃可享受六折優惠。

Thank you, Incogni, for supporting all the hard work we do here at Search Party.

感謝 Incogni 支持我們在 "搜索派對 "所做的一切努力。

And now let's get back to China and the biggest military buildup in modern history.

現在讓我們回到中國和現代史上最大規模的軍事集結上來。

In 1995, China fired six missiles into the sea surrounding Taiwan to protest the rise of a new Taiwanese leader.

1995 年，中國向臺灣周邊海域發射了六枚飛彈，以抗議臺灣新領導人的崛起。

Li Teng-hue would become Taiwan's first popularly elected president, and he wanted to move Taiwan away from any reunification with the mainland, something China disapproved of.

李登輝將成為臺灣第一位民選總統，他希望臺灣不要與大陸統一，而這正是中國所不贊同的。

By firing these missiles, China was demonstrating its commitment to reunification and its willingness to use its military to achieve it.

通過發射這些飛彈，中國表明了其對統一的承諾以及為實現統一而動用軍隊的意願。

Over the previous decades, China had dramatically grown its economy.

在過去的幾十年裡，中國的經濟取得了飛速發展。

Then beginning in the 1990s, it poured a lot of that money into its military, outspending

然後，從 20 世紀 90 年代開始，它將大量資金投入到軍事領域，支出超過了

Taiwan by billions.

臺灣數十億。

China developed its own modern tanks, fighter jets, submarines, helicopters, battleships and ballistic missiles in order to match Taiwan's American-made weaponry.

中國開發了自己的現代化坦克、戰鬥機、潛艇、直升機、戰艦和彈道導彈，以與臺灣的美製武器相抗衡。

Now we see China fielding advanced fourth and even fifth generation fighters.

現在，我們看到中國正在裝備先進的第四代甚至第五代戰鬥機。

They're just as advanced as the F-16s Taiwan has.

它們和臺灣擁有的 F-16 戰鬥機一樣先進。

We've also seen China really ramp up its submarine capacity, ballistic missiles.

我們還看到，中國真正提高了潛艇和彈道導彈的能力。

And so it has been focused above all else on preparing for Taiwan.

是以，它首先關注的是為臺灣做準備。

By 2013, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense estimated that China's military had three times as many helicopters, more than four times as many battleships, eight times as many fighter jets, 10 times as many tanks, more than 15 times as many submarines and an overwhelming number of ballistic missiles that could reach Taiwan.

據臺灣 "國防部 "估計，到 2013 年，中國軍隊擁有的直升機數量是美國的三倍，戰艦數量是美國的四倍多，戰鬥機數量是美國的八倍，坦克數量是美國的十倍，潛艇數量是美國的十五倍多，可射入臺灣的彈道導彈數量也是美國的壓倒性優勢。

These weapons gave China a better chance of successfully invading by negating both of

這些武器使中國有更大的機會成功入侵，因為它們可以同時抵消以下兩種武器

Taiwan's advantages.

臺灣的優勢。

Instead of sending its troops over first, China could use its missiles to bombard Taiwan's airfields and ports, easy targets that would effectively eliminate Taiwan's Air Force and Navy.

中國可以用飛彈轟炸臺灣的機場和港口，而不是先派軍隊過去，因為這些容易攻擊的目標可以有效地消滅臺灣的空軍和海軍。

Next, its ships and submarines could protect its troops as they crossed the strait.

其次，它的艦艇和潛艇可以保護穿越海峽的部隊。

Then its aircraft and tanks could help them capture the island, possibly fast enough to discourage the U.S. from intervening.

這樣，美國的飛機和坦克就能幫助他們佔領該島，而且速度可能快到足以阻止美國進行干預。

That would leave Taiwan with a very low chance of success.

這樣一來，臺灣成功的可能性就非常低了。

But if the U.S. did intervene, China could use its own advanced aircraft, ships, subs and missiles to block its path, creating a scenario that either side could win.

但是，如果美國真的進行干預，中國可以使用自己先進的飛機、艦艇、潛艇和飛彈來阻擋美國的行動，從而形成任何一方都有可能獲勝的局面。

A lot of the capabilities that China has developed make it much more difficult for Taiwan to leverage those advanced weapons.

中國開發的許多能力使臺灣更難利用這些先進武器。

Taiwan needed a new strategy that didn't rely so heavily on these advanced weapons.

臺灣需要一個新的戰略，不要過於依賴這些先進武器。

In 2008, an American military expert named William Murray proposed a strategy that did just that, and even gave it a name.

2008 年，一位名叫威廉-默裡（William Murray）的美國軍事專家提出了這樣一種戰略，甚至還給它起了個名字。

The slow, but sure-footed porcupine is world-renowned for one thing, its quills.

豪豬行動緩慢但腳步穩健，有一樣東西舉世聞名，那就是它的刺。

The porcupine strategy argues that instead of buying a few big, expensive weapons, Taiwan should instead buy lots and lots of small, mobile, and inexpensive ones.

豪豬戰略認為，臺灣不應購買幾件大而昂貴的武器，而應購買大量小而機動的廉價武器。

Porcupine-style weapons include these portable anti-aircraft missiles called stingers, anti-ship weapons called harpoons, as well as drones and mines.

豪豬式武器包括名為 "毒刺 "的便攜式防空飛彈、名為 "魚叉 "的反艦武器以及無人機和地雷。

For the cost of an F-16 fighter jet, Taiwan could buy almost six harpoon systems, or 135 stingers.

用一架 F-16 戰鬥機的價格，臺灣可以購買近六套魚叉系統或 135 枚毒刺。

By purchasing large quantities of these weapons, Taiwan could then cover itself with them, like a porcupine's quills.

通過大量購買這些武器，臺灣可以像豪豬的毛一樣用它們來掩護自己。

The whole notion of a porcupine strategy is basically that Taiwan becomes too difficult to swallow, so to speak.

豪豬戰略的基本概念是，臺灣變得難以下嚥。

You put enough question marks in the PLA leadership that they're not sure that they can achieve their objectives.

你給解放軍領導層打上了足夠多的問號，讓他們不確定自己能否實現目標。

The young male warns the coyote to back off, chattering his teeth and raising his quills.

年輕的雄狼警告土狼退後，咬牙切齒地舉起鵝毛筆。

Or if they do, the cost will be too great.

或者，即使他們這樣做了，代價也太大了。

If China begins the invasion, its missiles still could destroy Taiwan's planes and ships.

如果中國開始入侵，其飛彈仍然可以摧毀臺灣的飛機和船隻。

But these smaller weapons are harder targets to hit.

但這些小型武器更難擊中目標。

So when China sends over its main invasion force, it's slowed down by Taiwan's mines in the water.

是以，當中國派出主力入侵時，會被臺灣的水雷拖住。

Taiwan's troops can then use stinger missiles to destroy China's aircraft, and harpoons to destroy its ships.

這樣，臺灣軍隊就可以用毒刺飛彈摧毀中國的飛機，用魚叉摧毀中國的艦船。

While these weapons don't give Taiwan the ability to defeat China on its own, they could likely buy it enough time to allow the U.S. to decide to come help, which would give it a higher chance of success.

雖然這些武器並不能使臺灣有能力獨自打敗中國，但它們很可能為臺灣爭取到足夠的時間，讓美國決定前來幫忙，這將為臺灣帶來更大的成功機會。

Rather than try to match China ship for ship, plane for plane, all it does is need to prevent a successful invasion of Taiwan.

與其試圖以船對船、以機對機，不如防止中國成功入侵臺灣。

Without heeding the warning, the coyote walks into a well-timed left hook.

土狼對警告置若罔聞，迎面就是一記恰到好處的左勾拳。

Switching to a porcupine strategy would require a massive shift for Taiwan's military.

轉而採用 "豪豬戰略 "需要臺灣軍方做出巨大轉變。

But beginning in the 2010s, U.S. officials began urging Taiwan to buy weapons that fit the porcupine strategy.

但從 2010 年代開始，美國官員開始敦促臺灣購買符合豪豬戰略的武器。

And Taiwan seemed to mostly agree.

臺灣方面似乎也基本同意。

In 2015, it purchased 250 stingers, and about 800 other kinds of missiles, all smaller, more agile weapons.

2015 年，它購買了 250 枚 "毒刺 "飛彈和大約 800 枚其他類型的飛彈，都是更小、更靈活的武器。

By 2020, it purchased hundreds more, plus drones and radar systems.

到 2020 年，它又購買了數百架無人機和雷達系統。

But at the same time, it was continuing to buy advanced weapons, like fighter jets and tanks, and even building its own modern battleships and submarines.

但與此同時，它還在繼續購買先進武器，如戰鬥機和坦克，甚至建造自己的現代化戰艦和潛艇。

And in 2022, thousands of miles away, Russia invaded its much smaller neighbor, Ukraine.

2022 年，遠在千里之外的俄羅斯入侵了其小得多的鄰國烏克蘭。

Ukraine's military is holding its ground against the Russian onslaught, as a fourth night of heavy fighting is underway.

烏克蘭軍隊正在堅守陣地，抵禦俄羅斯軍隊的進攻。

Ukraine has been able to fight back the Russian invasion, largely thanks to porcupine-style weapons supplied by the U.S. and its Western allies.

烏克蘭能夠擊退俄羅斯的入侵，主要得益於美國及其西方盟國提供的豪豬式武器。

Taiwan hoped in the sense that, on paper, Russia was a far superior military force, but that didn't necessarily translate on the battlefield.

臺灣的希望在於，從紙面上看，俄羅斯的軍事力量遠勝於臺灣，但這並不一定能在戰場上體現出來。

And that a lot of these weapons that Taiwan has purchased, like stingers and javelins and HIMARS, made a big difference.

而臺灣購買的這些武器，如毒刺、標槍和 HIMARS，發揮了巨大作用。

In 2022, Taiwan got U.S. approval to buy more porcupine-style weapons, and it ramped up its own production of missiles.

2022 年，臺灣獲得美國準許購買更多豪豬式武器，並加緊生產自己的飛彈。

But when it also asked to buy advanced MH-60R submarine-hunting helicopters for reportedly $1.2 billion, the U.S. said no.

但當美國也要求購買先進的 MH-60R 潛艇狩獵直升機，據說價格為 12 億美元時，美國拒絕了。

Because they didn't fit the porcupine strategy.

因為他們不符合豪豬戰略。

I think that there is an urgency in the United States, and that has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine.

我認為，美國有一種緊迫感，而烏克蘭戰爭加速了這種緊迫感。

Taiwan's defense budget is not as high as we think it should be, and this money could be better used to buy things like javelins, stingers, harpoons.

臺灣的國防預算並沒有我們認為的那麼高，這些錢可以更好地用於購買標槍、毒刺、魚叉等武器。

The U.S. is currently Taiwan's only source of weapons, meaning it can pressure Taiwan into buying what it wants.

美國目前是臺灣唯一的武器來源，這意味著它可以向臺灣施壓，迫使臺灣購買它想要的東西。

The problem is that in Taiwan, some leaders believe they still need these more advanced weapons to counter China's increasingly aggressive behavior that falls short of a full-scale invasion.

問題是，在臺灣，一些領導人認為，他們仍然需要這些更先進的武器來對抗中國日益咄咄逼人的行為，但這種行為並沒有達到全面入侵的程度。

It needs jets to meet the increasing number of Chinese jets that fly close to the island.

它需要噴氣式飛機來應對越來越多飛近該島的中國噴氣式飛機。

And it needs ships to fight the Chinese navy if it ever tries to form a blockade.

而且，如果中國海軍試圖實施封鎖，它也需要艦船與之對抗。

Most importantly, though, some in Taiwan argue that it needs advanced weapons because if

但最重要的是，臺灣的一些人認為，臺灣需要先進武器，因為如果

China does invade, the porcupine strategy only slows it down.

中國確實入侵了，但豪豬戰略只能減緩入侵速度。

Taiwan can't win unless the U.S. intervenes, something that the U.S. still hasn't promised to do.

除非美國進行干預，否則臺灣不可能獲勝，而美國仍未承諾進行干預。

It has to assume the worst-case scenario, and therefore it is spending money on military capabilities to defend the island alone.

它必須假設最壞的情況，是以它正在花錢購買軍事能力，以單獨保衛該島。

That might not have been taken into consideration when the decision to block that sale was made.

在決定阻止這一銷售時，可能沒有考慮到這一點。

So unless the U.S. promises to help, Taiwan will continue to ask for weapons it believes it needs to defend their island.

是以，除非美國承諾提供幫助，否則臺灣將繼續要求獲得它認為保衛自己島嶼所需的武器。

And the U.S. will continue to push back.

美國將繼續反擊。

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