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  • Steve Jobs was not a technologist, he was a pitch man, he was a brilliant salesman, he was a fantastic marketer.

    喬布斯不是一個技術專家,他是一個推銷員,他是一個出色的銷售員,他是一個出色的營銷員。

  • When products succeed, we forget the extent to which marketing was actually instrumental or decisive in their success.

    當產品取得成功時,我們會忘記市場營銷在多大程度上對產品的成功起到了推動或決定性的作用。

  • He once said, if you can imagine a stand-up comedian doing a routine about your product, then you're onto something.

    他曾經說過,如果你能想象一個脫口秀喜劇演員為你的產品表演一段脫口秀,那麼你就成功了。

  • You need to preserve slightly odd things.

    你需要保存一些稍微奇怪的東西。

  • Rolls Royces were the only cars which still had a pedal on the floor.

    勞斯萊斯是唯一在地板上還有踏板的汽車。

  • Famously, Verve Plico, it's the one with the yellow label.

    著名的 Verve Plico,就是貼著黃色標籤的那款。

  • Idiosyncrasies kind of count double.

    這種怪癖也算雙倍。

  • Do you have any advice for early stage founders to help build their brand?

    您對處於早期階段的創始人有什麼幫助他們建立品牌的建議嗎?

  • Be consistent, be distinctive and be famous.

    始終如一,與眾不同,聲名遠播。

  • When you are not famous, you have to find all your customers.

    當你不出名時,你必須找到所有的客戶。

  • Suddenly, you reach this magical sort of escape velocity of fame where people start coming to you.

    突然間,你達到了一種神奇的成名逃逸速度,人們開始向你走來。

  • Today, my guest is Rory Sutherland.

    今天,我的嘉賓是羅裡-薩瑟蘭。

  • Rory is vice chairman of Ogilvy UK, author of the book Alchemy, the Dark Art and Curious Science, creating magic in brands, business and life, and the founder of Nudge Talk, the world's biggest festival of behavioral science and creativity.

    羅裡是英國奧美公司副董事長,著有《鍊金術、黑暗藝術和奇妙科學》一書,書中講述瞭如何在品牌、商業和生活中創造奇蹟,他還是世界上最大的行為科學和創意節--"Nudge Talk "的創始人。

  • Rory is both an example and a huge proponent of thinking from first principles.

    羅裡既是從第一原則出發思考問題的典範,也是第一原則的忠實擁護者。

  • Through his speaking and his books, he encourages people to not think logically when solving problems, but to think psychologically, using human psychology to inform how you design and build and market your products.

    通過演講和著作,他鼓勵人們在解決問題時不要用邏輯思維,而要用心理思維,用人類心理學來指導你如何設計、製造和營銷產品。

  • Rory is full of amazing stories and ideas and examples and inspiration, which you'll get a sense of as soon as we start talking.

    羅裡充滿了令人驚歎的故事、想法、範例和靈感,我們一開始交談,你就會感受到這一點。

  • I don't even ask him a question and he's already off to the races.

    我甚至還沒問他問題,他就已經開始比賽了。

  • This episode is for anyone who wants to think more creatively, help their team be more innovative and learn how to create more magic in your world.

    本期節目適合那些希望更有創造力地思考問題、幫助自己的團隊更具創新性以及學習如何在自己的世界裡創造更多奇蹟的人。

  • Rory has been one of the most requested guests on this podcast and I can now see why.

    羅裡一直是播客中最受歡迎的嘉賓之一,現在我明白為什麼了。

  • If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.

    如果您喜歡這個播客,別忘了在您最喜歡的播客應用程序或 YouTube 上訂閱和關注它。

  • It's the best way to avoid missing future episodes and helps the podcast tremendously.

    這是避免錯過未來劇集的最佳方法,也對播客有極大的幫助。

  • With that, I bring you Rory Sutherland.

    有請羅裡-薩瑟蘭。

  • Rory, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.

    羅裡,非常感謝你的到來,歡迎收聽播客。

  • It's a pleasure. It's an audience that I don't normally speak to.

    這是我的榮幸。這是我通常不會面對的觀眾。

  • And so it's an audience which I think is particularly valuable, particularly important, but also actually probably could benefit quite a bit from just a little bit of extra psychology.

    是以,我認為這是一個特別有價值、特別重要的閱聽人群體,但實際上,他們也可能從一點點額外的心理學知識中獲益良多。

  • Not least, not least, by the way, a very simple observation, which is that do not think that good products automatically succeed or the bad ones necessarily fail.

    順便提一下,還有一個非常簡單的看法,那就是不要認為好的產品就一定會成功,壞的產品就一定會失敗。

  • The other thing I'd say is that timing is so important that don't necessarily reject things simply because they failed in the past.

    我想說的另一件事是,時機非常重要,不要因為過去失敗過就拒絕接受。

  • One of the best products I've ever worked on in a professional capacity was Facebook Meta TV, the TV portal, sorry, Facebook, the Meta TV by Facebook.

    Facebook Meta TV 是我從事過的最好的專業產品之一,它是一個電視門戶網站,對不起,是 Facebook,Facebook 的 Meta TV。

  • And I bought it for about $120. It plugs into your TV.

    我花了大約 120 美元買的。它可以插入電視機。

  • It allows you to do obviously WhatsApp or Facebook or indeed Zoom on your television with a fantastic face tracking camera.

    它可以讓你通過一個神奇的面部跟蹤攝像頭,在電視上進行明顯的 WhatsApp 或 Facebook 或 Zoom 操作。

  • I mean, it really is sort of $500 worth of equipment, which they were selling for about $120.

    我的意思是,這確實是價值 500 美元的設備,而他們的售價約為 120 美元。

  • One of the best things I've ever owned. I owned about four of them.

    這是我擁有過的最好的東西之一。我擁有過四臺。

  • When I heard it was being discontinued, I bought another one because I think they're so good.

    當我聽說它要停產時,我又買了一個,因為我覺得它們非常好。

  • And yet for reasons I fully don't, you know, I don't really understand.

    然而,出於我完全不明白的原因,你知道,我真的不明白。

  • Apart from the fact that every single review said this is brilliant, there's a product.

    除了每篇評論都說它很棒之外,還有一個產品。

  • But the first seven paragraphs of the article weren't saying this is brilliant.

    但文章的前七段並沒有說這很精彩。

  • They were saying who would allow Facebook to put a camera in their home.

    他們說,誰會允許 Facebook 在自己家裡安裝攝像頭。

  • And so there were basically, you know, it was nine paragraphs of privacy paranoia because you can't turn the thing off after all.

    所以,基本上,你知道,這是九段隱私妄想症,因為你終究不能把它關掉。

  • You don't have to leave it switched off. OK, you know, there were but there were nine paragraphs of privacy paranoia basically followed by one paragraph saying as this these kind of products go, it's brilliant.

    你不必把它關掉。好吧,你知道,這裡面有九個段落都是對隱私的偏執,後面還有一個段落說,就這類產品而言,它很出色。

  • And yet we still don't have video calling on TV unless you're willing to plug your laptop in or do something pretty fancy and complex.

    然而,我們仍然無法在電視上進行視頻通話,除非你願意把筆記本電腦插在電視上,或者做一些相當花哨和複雜的事情。

  • That seems really weird to me.

    這在我看來真的很奇怪。

  • Let me actually read a quote from you around what good marketing often looks like.

    其實,讓我來讀讀你的一段話,看看好的營銷通常是什麼樣的。

  • So you once said, if you can imagine a stand-up comedian doing a routine about your product, then you're onto something.

    你曾經說過,如果你能想象一個脫口秀喜劇演員為你的產品表演一段脫口秀,那你就成功了。

  • The urge to appear serious is in many ways a disaster in marketing.

    在許多方面,追求嚴肅是營銷的災難。

  • I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.

    我很想聽聽你的看法。

  • This episode is brought to you by Pendo, the only all-in-one product experience platform for any type of application.

    本期節目由 Pendo 為您帶來,Pendo 是唯一一款適用於任何類型應用程序的一體化產品體驗平臺。

  • Tired of bouncing around multiple tools to uncover what's really happening inside your product?

    您是否厭倦了使用多種工具來了解產品內部的真實情況?

  • With all the tools you need in one simple to use platform, Pendo makes it easy to answer critical questions about how users are engaging with your product and then turn those insights into action.

    Pendo 在一個簡單易用的平臺上提供了您需要的所有工具,讓您可以輕鬆回答有關用戶如何使用產品的關鍵問題,然後將這些見解轉化為行動。

  • Also, you can get your users to do what you actually want them to do.

    此外,您還可以讓用戶做您真正想讓他們做的事情。

  • First, Pendo is built around product analytics, seeing what your users are actually doing in your apps so that you can optimize their experience.

    首先,Pendo 以產品分析為核心,瞭解用戶在應用程序中的實際操作,從而優化用戶體驗。

  • Next, Pendo lets you deploy in-app guides that lead users through the actions that matter most.

    接下來,Pendo 可讓您部署應用內指南,引導用戶完成最重要的操作。

  • Then, Pendo integrates user feedback so that you can capture and analyze what people actually want.

    然後,Pendo 會整合用戶反饋,以便您捕捉和分析人們的實際需求。

  • And the new thing in Pendo, session replays, a very cool way to visualize user sessions.

    Pendo 的新功能是會話重播,這是一種非常酷的用戶會話可視化方式。

  • I'm not surprised at all that over 10,000 companies use it today.

    如今有超過 10,000 家公司在使用它,我一點也不感到驚訝。

  • Visit pendo.io slash Lenny to create your free Pendo account today and start building better experiences across every corner of your product.

    訪問 pendo.io slash Lenny,立即創建您的免費 Pendo 賬戶,開始在產品的每個角落打造更好的體驗。

  • Yes, you want to take your product-led know-how a step further?

    是的,您想讓您的產品知識更進一步嗎?

  • Check out Pendo's lineup of free certification courses led by top product experts and designed to help you grow and advance in your career.

    查看 Pendo 的免費認證課程陣容,這些課程由頂級產品專家主講,旨在幫助您在職業生涯中不斷成長和進步。

  • Learn more and experience the power of the Pendo platform today at pendo.io slash Lenny.

    立即登錄 pendo.io slash Lenny 瞭解更多資訊,體驗 Pendo 平臺的強大功能。

  • Today's episode is brought to you by Cycle, the AI-powered feedback platform for product teams.

    今天的節目由人工智能驅動的產品團隊反饋平臺 Cycle 為您帶來。

  • Is your customer feedback a tangled mess of slack threads, survey responses, and overflowing inboxes?

    您的客戶反饋是否被各種線程、調查回覆和氾濫的收件箱搞得一團糟?

  • Wish that you could know what your customers really need?

    您希望瞭解客戶的真正需求嗎?

  • Cycle unifies all of your customer interactions from support chats to user research, gone calls, and app store reviews into one neat collaborative space.

    Cycle 將從支持哈拉到用戶研究、通話和應用商店評論等所有客戶互動統一到一個整潔的協作空間中。

  • Cycle's AI then extracts actionable insights on autopilot.

    然後,Cycle 的人工智能會自動提取可行的見解。

  • Cycle will learn what you're building so that it can label incoming feedback automatically.

    Cycle 將瞭解您正在構建的內容,從而自動標註傳入的反饋資訊。

  • That means you'll get a full voice-of-customer report without manually triaging feedback.

    這意味著您無需手動分流反饋,即可獲得完整的客戶聲音報告。

  • Then simply use Cycle Ask to dig deeper into any topic and generate custom AI-generated summaries across your entire feedback repository.

    然後,只需使用 Cycle Ask 深入挖掘任何主題,並在整個反饋信息庫中生成由人工智能生成的自定義摘要。

  • What makes Cycle different is the way that it lets you close feedback loops in each release.

    Cycle 的與眾不同之處在於,它能讓你在每次發佈時都關閉反饋迴路。

  • Feedback is not used just as a way to prioritize what to build, but also as a tool that creates trust with all stakeholders.

    反饋不僅是確定建設重點的方法,也是與所有利益相關者建立信任的工具。

  • Sign up for a free Cycle trial today at cycle.app slash Lenny and put your feedback on autopilot.

    現在就登錄 cycle.app slash Lenny 註冊免費試用 Cycle,讓你的反饋自動運行。

  • That's C-Y-C-L-E dot app slash Lenny.

    這就是 C-Y-C-L-E 點應用程序斜槓萊尼。

  • I had a conversation earlier today with someone who's in the hotel industry and is in a particular, without giving away where he works, he's looking to reinvent the hotel, arguing, I think with some reason, that it's one of those areas which is actually ripe for a good degree of disruption.

    今天早些時候,我與一位從事酒店業的人進行了一次談話,他正在尋求重塑酒店業,我想這是有一定道理的,他認為酒店業是一個已經成熟的領域,可以進行一定程度的顛覆。

  • So it's a complicated thing. Don't be too weird, OK?

    所以這是件複雜的事別太奇怪了,好嗎?

  • Don't, you know, don't don't be too strange, because if the consumer, there's a wonderful concept from Raymond Lerby, of course, the French designer, called maximally advanced yet acceptable.

    不要,你知道,不要太奇怪,因為如果消費者,當然是法國設計師雷蒙德-勒比提出了一個美妙的概念,叫做 "最大限度的先進性和可接受性"。

  • In other words, you know, there is a pace of change which consumers will accept.

    換句話說,消費者會接受一定的變化速度。

  • And generally, they're more comfortable with evolution than they are with complete reinvention.

    一般來說,他們更樂於接受進化,而不是徹底的革新。

  • There are exceptions to that. Well, actually, even the iPhone, let's face it, OK, was preceded by the iPod.

    但也有例外。事實上,即使是 iPhone,面對現實吧,它的前身也是 iPod。

  • It wasn't a complete WTF moment, OK? And consumers effectively like to migrate their behaviour rather than reinventing their behaviour.

    這並不是一個完全的 "WTF時刻",好嗎?消費者實際上喜歡遷移他們的行為,而不是重新發明他們的行為。

  • But nonetheless, one of the things I always point out is that idiosyncrasies kind of count double.

    但儘管如此,我一直指出的一點是,特立獨行是雙倍的。

  • The wonderful thing, actually, years ago, back in the 1990s, Ogilvy won the Jaguar account.

    事實上,多年前,也就是 20 世紀 90 年代,奧美贏得了捷豹的客戶,這是一件非常美妙的事情。

  • And one of the things the creative director in New York said is that, you know, one of the things you need to preserve is slightly odd things.

    紐約的創意總監說過,你知道,你需要保留的東西之一就是那些略顯古怪的東西。

  • So in a Jaguar of the 1990s, you turned on the light above your head, the reading light or the central light with a switch that was actually on the central console.

    是以,在 20 世紀 90 年代的捷豹汽車上,你可以用中央控制檯上的開關打開頭頂的燈、閱讀燈或中央照明燈。

  • Every other car, you reached up and you flick the switch.

    每隔一輛車,你都要伸手按下開關。

  • In the Jaguar, you press the button at the bottom and the light came on the top.

    在捷豹汽車中,按下底部的按鈕,頂部就會亮燈。

  • And the creative director said, you know, keep those things.

    創意總監說,你知道,這些東西就留著吧。

  • You know, actually, you know, distinctiveness really matters.

    實際上,與眾不同真的很重要。

  • And they were actually really interested because they said, oh, that's interesting you say that because we're actually planning to get rid of it because we thought it was inconsistent.

    事實上,他們真的很感興趣,因為他們說:"哦,你這麼說很有意思,因為我們實際上正打算把它去掉,因為我們認為它不一致。

  • For years, I don't know if this is still true because I don't drive many Rolls Royces.

    多年來,我不知道這是否仍然正確,因為我開的勞斯萊斯並不多。

  • But for years, Rolls Royce was the last car. Now, obviously, now cars dip their headlamps automatically or you have an automatic setting.

    但多年來,勞斯萊斯是最後一輛車。很明顯,現在的汽車都會自動調整大燈的亮度,或者進行自動設置。

  • But for years, Rolls Royces were the only cars which still had a pedal on the floor.

    但多年來,勞斯萊斯是唯一仍在地板上設有踏板的汽車。

  • Perfect for an automatic, not so good for a manual.

    非常適合自動擋車型,但對於手動擋車型就不那麼合適了。

  • But they had a pedal on the floor where you dipped and undipped your headlamps rather than having a stalk.

    但它們在地板上有一個踏板,你可以在踏板上打開或關閉大燈,而不是有一個燈杆。

  • And those things, which I always cite things like the the Doubletree cookie when you check in, for example.

    而這些東西,我總是舉例說明,比如在辦理入住手續時的雙樹曲奇餅乾(Doubletree cookie)。

  • I mean, a brilliant example of this, which when you think about it was extraordinary in terms of the attention it garnered.

    我的意思是,這就是一個很好的例子,仔細想想,它引起的關注非同一般。

  • You probably remember MCI, the American. No, you're too young.

    你可能還記得美國的 MCI 公司。不,你太年輕了。

  • I do. Of course, MCI. You do. OK.

    是的。當然,MCI。你會的好吧

  • They have the concept of friends and family where you nominated a certain number of calls, a certain number of numbers that you called particularly frequently.

    他們有親朋好友的概念,你提名了一定數量的電話,一定數量的你經常撥打的號碼。

  • And you got sort of 20 percent off calls to those numbers.

    這些號碼的來電可享受 20% 的折扣。

  • I started off with 10 and I think they eventually ramped it up to kind of 25.

    一開始是 10 個,我想他們最後增加到了 25 個。

  • But actually, most people, 90 percent. It's a poetic principle.

    但實際上,大多數人都是 90%。這是一個詩意的原則。

  • Most people make 80 percent of their calls to probably five or six numbers.

    大多數人 80% 的電話都是打給五六個號碼。

  • Now, what was interesting about that was it garnered. It was in a sense, irrational.

    現在,有趣的是,它獲得了。從某種意義上說,這是不理性的。

  • OK, but it garnered much more interest than if you simply reduce the cost of calls by 15, 20 percent across the board because you have to stimulate, you know, stipulate your numbers and because you have, you know, actually things that are slightly weird, things that have a little bit of extra friction, things that are slightly counterintuitive.

    好吧,但這比你簡單地將通話費用全面降低 15%、20%更能引起人們的興趣,因為你必須刺激,你知道,規定你的數字,而且因為你有,你知道,實際上有些事情有點奇怪,有些事情有一點額外的摩擦,有些事情有點違反直覺。

  • Sometimes the right thing to do is to get rid of them. Sometimes you kind of celebrate them.

    有時,正確的做法是擺脫它們。有時,你會為它們喝彩。

  • And that's what I mean about the comedian. The comedian notices things that are slightly weird, notices things.

    這就是我說的喜劇演員。喜劇演員會注意到一些略顯怪異的事情,注意到一些事情。

  • And actually, there was a great comedy routine when friends and family came to the UK.

    實際上,當親朋好友來到英國時,還上演了一出精彩的喜劇。

  • It was introduced from MSCI by a marketer called Ed Carter to BT in the UK.

    它是由一位名叫埃德-卡特(Ed Carter)的營銷人員從 MSCI 引入英國電信公司的。

  • There were whole comedy routines about it. You know, people go, you know, I suddenly realised, you know,

    有很多關於它的喜劇表演。人們會說 我突然意識到

  • I couldn't think of the ninth number, you know, or it's basically my mum and nine adult lines.

    我想不出第九個數字,你知道,基本上就是我媽媽和九個大人的臺詞。

  • This was the kind of thing. But those kind of things which actually slightly there are slight little splinter on the attention.

    就是這種事情。但這種事情其實稍微有一點小插曲就會引起注意。

  • In other words, it's something that slightly raises up from the normal shape or it's the step that isn't quite the riser.

    換句話說,它是在正常形狀的基礎上略微升高的東西,或者說它是不完全升高的臺階。

  • If you go down a flight of steps and one step is slightly, you know, the sender is slightly out of whack.

    如果你走下一段臺階,其中一個臺階稍有偏差,你知道,發送器就會稍有偏差。

  • Those things have a place, actually. I mean, famously, Verve Clicquot, the French champagne house, their labels ended up yellow by mistake.

    其實,這些東西也有用武之地。我的意思是,著名的法國香檳酒廠 Verve Clicquot,他們的酒標就被誤貼成了黃色。

  • I think there was some printing error and they thought, OK, we have these stupid yellow labels.

    我認為是印刷錯誤,他們認為,好吧,我們有這些愚蠢的黃色標籤。

  • We will send them to Le Roast Beef in England. We do not want to sell them in France.

    我們將把它們送到英國的 Le Roast Beef 公司。我們不想在法國銷售。

  • And then the Brits said, OK, by the way, that champagne, can you send us more of the champagne with the yellow label?

    然後英國人說,好吧,順便說一下,那瓶香檳,你能不能再給我們寄點帶黃色標籤的香檳?

  • It's going down really well. And they said, OK, we're going to make it really yellow now.

    效果非常好他們說,好吧,我們現在要把它做成黃色。

  • Just, you know, almost as a kind of wind up, I think. OK.

    只是,你知道,幾乎 作為一種發條,我想。好吧

  • But of course, if you think about it, the entire identity of that champagne, you know, you can't remember the number.

    當然,如果你仔細想想,香檳的整個身份,你知道,你記不住號碼。

  • It's the name. It's the one with the yellow label. OK.

    就是這個名字。就是貼著黃色標籤的那個好的

  • You know, and so visual distinctiveness and other forms of what you might call UX distinctiveness, as I said, don't go crazy weird.

    你知道,是以視覺獨特性和其他你可能稱之為用戶體驗獨特性的形式,正如我所說,不要變得瘋狂怪異。

  • But there's this concept of Maya, which is maximally advanced yet acceptable.

    但瑪雅的概念是,它是最先進的,但又是可以接受的。

  • There's a wonderful phrase which I'll share with you, which was there's an English guy who went over from the BBC for BBC four, which is like it's like the PBS of PBS.

    有一句話說得很好,我想和大家分享一下,那就是有一個英國人從 BBC 轉到了 BBC 4,這就像是 PBS 中的 PBS。

  • In fact, it's the really niche, niche kind of, you know, educational kind of, you know, hardcore factual British TV channel.

    事實上,這是一個非常小眾的英國教育電視頻道。

  • And he went to buy to see if there are any programmes to buy from the Danish state broadcaster.

    他去購買丹麥國家廣播公司的節目。

  • And he ended up buying a series called The Killing. He bought the first season of The Killing, went for it for twenty four thousand pounds.

    最後他買下了一部叫《殺戮》的劇集。他買下了《殺戮》的第一季,花了兩萬四千英鎊。

  • He paid to run The Killing, which had aired on Danish television about a year and a half earlier and been quite successful in Denmark, but nowhere else.

    一年半前,丹麥電視臺播出了《殺戮》,該劇在丹麥取得了相當大的成功,但在其他地方並不成功。

  • And he paid twenty four thousand pounds, thirty thousand dollars and aired it on BBC four.

    他支付了兩萬四千英鎊(約合三萬美元),並在 BBC 四頻道播出。

  • And then it became hugely popular. Then it migrated to BBC two.

    然後它大受歡迎。然後轉到了英國廣播公司二臺

  • And then Netflix came along and bought the rights to the series. You'll probably remember this.

    然後 Netflix 出現了,買下了該系列的版權。你可能還記得這個。

  • So actually, the Danish state broadcaster ended up, he said, there should be a statue of me outside this Danish broadcaster because I ended up making them tens of millions of pounds by both selling the rights to The Killing, the original series, and also by Netflix buying the rights to the basic storyline.

    他說,丹麥國家廣播公司最後應該在外面給我立一座雕像,因為我賣掉了《殺戮》(The Killing)的原版版權,又讓 Netflix 買下了基本故事情節的版權,最終為他們賺了幾千萬英鎊。

  • I said, well, why did you do that? I said, what made you buy it? And he said, great phrase.

    我說,那你為什麼要這麼做?我說,你為什麼要買它?他說,很好的一句話。

  • He said, well, he said, if you're British, true also if you're American, by the way, if you're British, the great thing about Scandinavians is they're just the right amount of weird.

    他說,好吧,他說,如果你是英國人,如果你是美國人,順便說一句,如果你是英國人,斯堪的納維亞人最大的特點就是他們的怪異程度恰到好處。

  • Right. So if you think about it, if you have to watch something set in Denmark and you live in San Francisco, it's not like watching something set in Korea or Somalia.

    是啊所以,如果你仔細想想,如果你必須看一些以丹麥為背景的電影,而你住在舊金山,那就不像看一些以韓國或索馬里為背景的電影了。

  • You're not sitting there going, what the hell is going on here? Why is this man doing this? Basically, they're a bit like us. They're enough like us that we basically figure out what's going on.

    你不會坐在那裡想,這到底是怎麼回事?這個人為什麼要這麼做?基本上,他們有點像我們。他們和我們很像,所以我們基本上能搞清楚發生了什麼。

  • But they're weird enough to make it just that little bit more interesting. And I think, you know, I think that's part of the reason for the popularity of Scandi noir and Scandi crime is they're the right amount of weird.

    但它們足夠詭異,讓故事更有趣一些。我認為,這也是斯堪的納維亞黑色電影和斯堪的納維亞犯罪電影受歡迎的部分原因,因為它們的怪異程度恰到好處。

  • And I think I think that's true of product design. I think with Raymond Loewe, I think the thing was he made a fan. If I've got the story right, he made a fad that was insanely quiet.

    我認為產品設計也是如此。我認為雷蒙德-羅威(Raymond Loewe)設計的產品是風扇。如果我沒記錯的話,他創造了一種安靜得令人發瘋的時尚。

  • And people didn't believe it worked because it was just too quiet. And years later, I remember that story because there was a guy who had this extraordinary kind of machine learning and AI device that was being used by engineers.

    人們不相信它能成功,因為它太安靜了。多年以後,我還記得那個故事,因為有一個人擁有這種非凡的機器學習和人工智能設備,被工程師們使用。

  • And he was producing a I think it was an electric toothbrush. What might have been a razor was other men's razor with an electric motor, which was that they could somehow make it insanely quiet by using some weird machine learning algorithm about what caused the noise.

    他生產的應該是電動牙刷。他生產的可能是刮鬚刀,也可能是其他帶電動馬達的男士刮鬚刀,他們可以通過一些奇怪的機器學習算法,知道是什麼造成了噪音,從而讓刮鬚刀變得異常安靜。

  • I said to him, look, be a bit careful because it's probably a good idea to make a razor a bit quieter. But if you make it too quiet, we genuinely won't believe it's working. Actually, it's the crackly noise that when you rub it over your face, and it's the buzz of the thing and the vibration of the thing that actually convinces us it's doing a job.

    我對他說,聽著,你要小心一點,因為把刮鬚刀做得更小聲可能是個好主意。但如果你做得太安靜,我們真的不會相信它在工作。實際上,當你用它在臉上摩擦時,它發出的 "咔嚓咔嚓 "的聲音,以及它的嗡嗡聲和震動聲才會讓我們相信它在工作。

  • And, you know, you can actually you can overdo this. You can over optimize for things.

    而且,你知道,實際上你可以做得過火。你可以過度優化一些東西。

  • I love all these examples you're sharing of ways products stand out, sometimes by accident, sometimes intentionally. If you if I were to zoom out and try to describe what you encourage people to do, you basically are intent on convincing people to think less logically to think less rationally, which I think is pretty counterintuitive to a lot of people, especially in business where they're told, be more rational, be more logical.

    我喜歡你分享的這些產品脫穎而出的例子,有時是偶然,有時是有意。如果讓我放大並描述一下你鼓勵人們做的事情,你基本上是想說服人們減少邏輯思維,減少理性思考,我認為這對很多人來說是非常反直覺的,尤其是在商業領域,他們被告知要更理性、更有邏輯性。

  • I think I think what it is is psychology is a branch of complexity theory. OK, and there are lots of things in it which are nonlinear butterfly effects, small things that have a huge effect. And there are also lots of things which are if you like yin and yang. In other words, what I say is the opposite of a good idea can be another good idea.

    我認為心理學是複雜性理論的一個分支。好吧,這裡面有很多非線性的蝴蝶效應,小事情產生大影響。也有很多事情是陰陽相生相剋的。換句話說,我說的好主意的反面也可能是另一個好主意。

  • You know, I would say there are two great ways to check into a hotel. One of them is insanely high touch. And the other way is no touch. It'd be pretty cool to check into a hotel where basically you just walked in with your mobile phone and unlocked your room. That'd be pretty cool. It's also pretty cool if you go to the Mandarin Oriental in Hong Kong that they take you up to your room, show you how to use the television, the shower, I hope, because that's always a baffling thing.

    我認為,有兩種入住酒店的好方法。一種是瘋狂的高接觸。另一種是無接觸式。如果入住一家酒店,你只需用手機走進去,然後解鎖你的房間,那一定很酷。那一定很酷。如果你去香港文華東方酒店,他們會帶你到房間,教你如何使用電視和淋浴,我希望這也很酷,因為這總是一件令人困惑的事情。

  • And that actually makes you a cup of tea in the room while you're filling out the paperwork at your vast desk. They're both pretty great ways to check into a hotel. They're complete opposites, but they are distinctive. I think understanding the fact that what we're trying to do is we're trying to run the world of business entirely to a reductionist kind of maths and physics and finance model.

    而且,當您在寬敞的辦公桌前填寫文件時,還能在房間裡喝上一杯茶。這兩種入住酒店的方式都很不錯。它們完全相反,但又各具特色。我認為,我們所要做的,是試圖將商業世界完全還原為數學、物理和金融模式。

  • You know where everything's kind of linear and everything works in straight lines and everything's proportionate and the opposite of a good idea is wrong. And the past is a fantastic guide to the future. We're basing our decision making on kind of high school maths questions.

    你知道,在這裡,一切都是線性的,一切都在直線上運行,一切都在比例上運行,好主意的反面就是錯的。過去是未來的最佳指南。我們的決策是建立在高中數學基礎上的

  • It always bothers me, by the way, that intelligence tests are multiple choice. The SATs are multiple choice in the US, I think, aren't they? Very weirdly, a great aunt of mine actually, who spent some time in the US, I think at Princeton, was actually involved with the guy who designed those kind of early intelligence tests.

    順便說一句,智力測驗都是多項選擇題,這一直困擾著我。我想,美國的 SAT 考試也是多項選擇的,不是嗎?非常奇怪的是,我的一位曾姑姑在美國待過一段時間,我想是在普林斯頓,她實際上與設計這些早期智力測驗的人有關係。

  • By the way, she had her doubts. One of the things she commented on was that basically, if they did an intelligence test in which kind of white academics didn't come top, they rejected it as a measure of intelligence. So they found, for example, I think that Native Americans and African-Americans were, for instance, better at memorizing poetry than white people.

    順便說一句,她也有疑慮。她評論的其中一件事是,基本上,如果他們做的智力測驗中,白人學者沒有名列前茅,他們就拒絕將其作為衡量智力的標準。所以他們發現,比如說,我認為美國原住民和非裔美國人比白人更擅長背詩。

  • OK, all credit to my great aunt. They rejected this then as a measure of intelligence because it didn't fit their narrative. But the other thing that bothers me, I'm slightly proud of my great aunt for spotting this, calling this out as a bit of bullshit.

    好吧,這都是我大姨媽的功勞。他們當時拒絕將此作為衡量智力的標準,因為這不符合他們的說法。但另一件讓我困擾的事情是,我為我的大姨媽能發現這一點,並指出這是胡說八道而略感自豪。

  • But the other thing that always bothers me is that by definition, multiple choice questions have a single right answer. OK, theoretically, you could have multiple right answers and you simply have to choose one that is acceptable, I guess. But basically, they got a right answer and three wrong answers.

    但還有一件事一直困擾著我,那就是根據定義,多項選擇題只有一個正確答案。好吧,從理論上講,你可以有多個正確答案,你只需選擇一個可以接受的答案就可以了。但基本上,他們只有一個正確答案和三個錯誤答案。

  • That's how you do multiple choice questions. But real life decisions aren't like that. You have multiple right answers. And also, you don't have all the information you need to answer the question contained within the question. And some of the information you have, which you think is important, is actually irrelevant to answering the question.

    這就是做選擇題的方法。但現實生活中的決策不是這樣的。你有多個正確答案。而且,你並不掌握問題中包含的回答問題所需的所有資訊。有些你認為重要的資訊,實際上與回答問題無關。

  • So we have this kind of, you know, how when you look at those intelligence tests, SAT measures, IQ tests, they're all, you know, two buses leave a bus station. One travels due north. They all have an assumption of complete proportionality and linearity. The buses are all traveling in a straight line. You have to calculate what time it is when the buses are 100 kilometers apart. OK, and there's a single right answer.

    所以,我們有這樣一種,你知道,當你看那些智力測驗,SAT測量,智商測試,他們都是,你知道,兩輛公共汽車離開一個公共汽車站。一輛向正北方向行駛。它們都有一個完全比例和線性的假設。公車都在一條直線上行駛。你必須計算兩輛巴士相距 100 公里時的時間。好的,只有一個正確答案。

  • And all the information in the question is germane to the answer that, you know, generally there isn't any extraneous information which you have to ignore. And there was a famous experiment, actually, which I think originated in France, where they said, you know, this ship stops, you know, you know, 27 goats get on, three sheep get off. Then they add 25 cows. How old is the captain of the ship?

    問題中的所有資訊都與答案息息相關,你知道,一般來說,沒有任何無關資訊是你必須忽略的。實際上,有一個著名的實驗,我認為起源於法國,他們說,你知道,這艘船停了下來,你知道,27只山羊上了船,3只綿羊下了船。然後再加上25頭牛船長多大了?

  • And what they found is actually pretty intelligent kids would not give the answer. It is impossible to tell. They'd assume that the information in the question, because it's in the question, had to be of use in formulating the answer.

    而他們發現,其實相當聰明的孩子是不會給出答案的。這是不可能的。他們會認為,問題中的資訊既然出現在問題中,就一定會對得出答案有用。

  • And if you can Google it, because it then appeared in a Chinese, I think, a Chinese school exam. And it was a very interesting experiment done, I think, by a French philosopher or psychologist, which is what happens if you actually just give people a load of data and then you give them a question. Are they so habituated by high school questions to assume that what's in the question must therefore give you, you know, a single right answer?

    如果你能谷歌一下,因為它後來出現在了中國,我想是中國的學校考試中。這是一個非常有趣的實驗,我想是由一位法國哲學家或心理學家做的,如果你給人們提供大量數據,然後再給他們出一道題,會發生什麼呢?他們會不會被高中的問題慣壞了,認為問題中的內容一定會給你一個唯一的正確答案?

  • And this is exactly what happened. And, you know, if you look at real life, i.e. business decisions, which anything that involves human behavior, it's simply, you know, all those conditions that we are expected to look for in something when we call it scientific. None of those conditions are met, you know, single right answer, proportionality, you know, the scale of the input being proportionate to the scale of the effect.

    這就是事實。而且,你知道,如果你看看現實生活,即商業決策,任何涉及人類行為的東西,它只是,你知道,當我們稱之為科學時,我們期望在某些東西中尋找的所有條件。這些條件都不符合,你知道,單一的正確答案,比例關係,你知道,輸入的規模與效果的規模成正比。

  • None of those things, none of those things are met in real world decisions. And yet we select and promote people on their ability to perform those artificial activities.

    在現實世界的決策中,這些事情都不存在。然而,我們選拔和提拔人才時,卻要看他們是否有能力完成這些人為的活動。

  • Yeah, there's a few really interesting stories of companies which have a much less top down. In other words, it's a much more, you know, you know how in evolution, there's this theory of multi level selection, which is we don't just select for individuals or genes, we select for groups, for example.

    是的,有一些公司的故事非常有趣,它們沒有那麼自上而下。換句話說,這是一種更多層次的選擇,你知道,在進化論中,有這樣一種多層次選擇理論,即我們不僅僅選擇個體或基因,我們還選擇群體,例如。

  • Two examples I've heard of anecdotally, which are interesting. There's a British company called Octopus Energy, which also has a software division called Kraken, which is a kind of, it's effectively a way of managing utilities in a much more sophisticated pricing environment, you know, and they have extraordinary tariffs where, you know, if you charge your car after midnight, you, you know, you pay a tiny fraction of what you pay the rest of the time.

    我聽說過兩個有趣的例子。有一家英國公司叫 Octopus Energy,它也有一個叫 Kraken 的軟件部門,這是一種,實際上是一種在更復雜的定價環境中管理公用事業的方法,你知道,他們有非同尋常的關稅,你知道,如果你在午夜後給汽車充電,你知道,你只需支付其餘時間的一小部分費用。

  • It's very much about marrying supply and demand. The way they operate is almost multicellular in that you have lots of small autonomous teams. Their ultimate brief, what the objective of the company is, is very, very clear. But actually, they allow people considerable autonomy within teams of sort of 10, 15, 20 people in terms of how they actually achieve their ends.

    這在很大程度上是供求關係的結合。他們的運作方式幾乎是多細胞的,因為他們有許多獨立自主的小團隊。他們的最終目標,即公司的目標,是非常非常明確的。但實際上,在 10 人、15 人、20 人的團隊中,他們允許員工在如何實現目標方面擁有相當大的自主權。

  • The second example is Shopify, where their customer service teams are in groups of 10.

    第二個例子是 Shopify,他們的客戶服務團隊每 10 人一組。

  • And Toby Shannon, who was the chief operating officer of Shopify, modeled this on sports teams. He said, if you look at teams of people in sport, your typical sport will have somewhere between sort of, you know, okay, rugby might be 15 and soccer is 11 and cricket's 11.

    Shopify 的首席運營官託比-香農(Toby Shannon)以體育團隊為模型。他說,如果你看看體育運動中的團隊,你會發現典型的體育運動團隊介於以下幾種人之間:橄欖球可能有 15 人,足球 11 人,板球 11 人。

  • But generally, teams have those double digit kind of team sizes. And he thought there was something meaningful about that. And so there, although, although it meant, you know, in some ways, a much less lean structure, because it normally in a call center environment, you'd have one person managing 100 people, and you had effectively a team leader with a team of 10.

    但一般來說,球隊的人數都是兩位數。他認為這很有意義。是以,儘管這意味著,你知道,從某種程度上說,結構要精簡得多,因為通常在呼叫中心的環境中,你會有一個人管理 100 人,而你實際上有一個團隊上司,帶著 10 人的團隊。

  • And what was interesting that emerged from this is, you know, although, you know, he had to fight for this to an extent, these people were extraordinarily happy in their jobs and extraordinarily motivated, but also kept each other motivated, because the teams were small enough where people felt kind of debts of obligation to their other teammates.

    有趣的是,雖然在某種程度上,他必須為此而戰,但這些人在工作中異常快樂,異常積極,而且還相互激勵,因為團隊足夠小,人們對其他隊友有一種義務感。

  • In other words, if you work for an organization of 100 people, and you pull a sick day, you don't really feel terrible about it. Okay. But if, if you're pulling a sick day means the other nine or eight people have to work quite a lot harder because you're not there.

    換句話說,如果你為一個有 100 人的組織工作,而你請了一天病假,你並不會覺得很糟糕。但是,如果你請了一天病假,就意味著其他九個人或八個人因為你不在而不得不更加努力地工作。

  • The natural kind of human instincts of reciprocation and obligation don't really scale up, you know, into, you know, there's the Dunbar number famously of 150 people, which is the size of sort of military units and Oxbridge colleges and so on.

    人類自然的互惠和義務本能並不能真正擴展到,你知道,鄧巴的數字是著名的 150 人,這是軍隊和牛津劍橋學院等的規模。

  • And that there's that famous Don Dunbar number coined by Robin Dunbar, once described as the number of people you know, where you could join a conversation in which they were engaged with someone else, without it feeling weird.

    羅賓-鄧巴曾創造了一個著名的 "鄧巴數字"(Don Dunbar number),這個數字曾被描述為:你認識多少人,你就可以加入他們與其他人的談話,而不會覺得奇怪。

  • Most people know about 150 people, where effectively, you know, you're at a party, you see friend X, who's one of your Dunbar number, one of the 150 people talking to a complete stranger, and you can go over and join that conversation without feeling you're a bit of a kind of wallflower or being a bit of an idiot by butting in.

    大多數人大約認識 150 個人,是以,在聚會上,你看到朋友 X,他是你的鄧巴號碼之一,也是 150 人中的一個,正在和一個完全陌生的人哈拉,你就可以過去加入他們的談話,而不會覺得自己是個牆頭草,或者因為插嘴而顯得有點白痴。

  • And that's the Dunbar number 150. There does seem to be some number around sports teams around 10. So that's a way of designing for humanity rather than designing for the organogram. And a third case would be someone at a very successful British online retailer called AO, Appliances Online is what it stands for.

    這就是鄧巴150號。在體育團隊中,似乎也有一些數字在 10 左右。是以,這是一種為人類而設計,而不是為器官圖而設計的方式。第三個案例是英國一家非常成功的在線零售商,名為 "AO"(Appliances Online)。

  • And he said something fairly similar in terms of, you know, you know, the brief to the staff is, you know, very simple briefs like treat the customer like you treat your grandmother.

    他也說過類似的話,他對員工的要求很簡單,就像對待顧客就像對待自己的祖母一樣。

  • And if you look at yourself in the mirror, the shave test, and you come home at the end of the day, would your mum be proud of what you've done? You know, they actually said not not those kind of metrics of, you know, speed and efficiency and how many deliveries did you make, but the way in which they kind of define customer service.

    如果你看著鏡子裡的自己,刮鬍子測試,一天結束後回到家,你媽媽會為你所做的感到驕傲嗎?你知道,他們實際上說的不是那些指標,你知道,速度和效率,以及你送了多少貨,而是他們定義客戶服務的方式。

  • And, you know, this would apply to call center staff as well is, you know, you know, imagine treat the customer like you're talking to your gran. I said, there are lots of different ways you might talk to your grandmother, you've all got different grandmothers, etc. But basically, everybody knows what that means. And similarly, you know, make your mum proud is effectively the brief.

    而且,你知道,這也適用於呼叫中心的員工,你知道,你知道,想象一下,對待客戶就像你在和你奶奶說話一樣。我說過,和奶奶說話有很多不同的方式,你們都有不同的奶奶,等等。但基本上,每個人都知道那是什麼意思。同樣,"讓你媽媽為你驕傲 "實際上也是這個意思。

  • And I think, you know, I think undoubtedly, you know, one of the two great virtues to this, one of which is that the metrics often actually get gained, or they lead to a complete distortion of behavior. The second thing with metrics is that either people gain them to their advantage, or they obey them, but find them stupid.

    我認為,你知道的,我認為毫無疑問,這有兩個最大的優點,其一是衡量標準往往實際上是有好處的,或者它們會導致行為的完全扭曲。衡量標準的第二大優點是,人們要麼從中獲益,要麼服從這些標準,卻發現它們很愚蠢。

  • But the loss of autonomy that results when you're simply chasing a few metrics, imagine what it's like to work in a call center, where you're basically incentivized to get the get the customer off the phone as quickly as you possibly can. Okay. The loss of autonomy and judgment, that the tokens, I think, that, you know, is deeply depressing, it's deeply demotivating.

    但是,如果你只是一味地追求一些指標,就會失去自主權,試想一下在呼叫中心工作是什麼感覺,在那裡,你基本上被激勵要儘可能快地讓客戶掛斷電話。好吧。失去自主權和判斷力的代幣,我覺得,你知道的,讓人深感壓抑,讓人失去動力。

  • So final case of that is Zappos. We're talking to the fantastic guy who is, I think, Chief Marketing or Operating Officer of Zappos. You won't believe this. I think that he refused to make speed a measure in the call center. He said the call is as long as it needs to be to solve the problem. And they had one extraordinary outlier, which was something like a customer service call, which was seven hours long.

    最後一個案例是 Zappos。我們正在與一位奇妙的傢伙交談,他應該是 Zappos 的首席營銷官或運營官。你一定不會相信。我認為他拒絕將速度作為呼叫中心的衡量標準。他說,為了解決問題,通話時間需要多長就有多長。他們有一個非常特殊的例外情況,那就是類似客服電話的通話時間長達 7 個小時。

  • Now, I think it involved a couple of bathroom visits on both sides. I have no idea what the problem was, but that was almost a point of principle that if it takes seven hours to solve the problem, that's how long we spend on the line.

    現在,我想雙方都上了幾次廁所。我不知道問題出在哪裡,但這幾乎是一個原則問題,如果解決問題要花七個小時,那我們就得花這麼長時間在生產線上。

  • And so this business where in the urge for quantification, and the urge for what you might call de-psychologization of problems, in other words, you define them by entirely objective, non-psychological, non-emotional measures.

    是以,在這種情況下,我們需要量化,需要將問題去心理學化,換句話說,我們需要用完全客觀的、非心理學的、非情感化的方法來定義問題。

  • We've actually created what I call Soviet-style capitalism. It's deeply demotivating. It's all about quarterly targets. I mean, at least the Soviet Union had a five-year plan. We've got these stupid quarterly obsessions with revenue for meeting our forecast for quarter two.

    我們實際上創造了我所說的蘇聯式資本主義。這嚴重打擊了人們的積極性。一切都圍繞著季度目標。我的意思是,至少蘇聯有一個五年計劃。而我們每個季度都執著於達到第二季度的預期收入。

  • And effectively, people feel it's like metropolis and people feel fundamentally dehumanized by this. And the persistent cost cutting has effectively destroyed much of the pleasure of the workplace, I think, because there's no discretion.

    實際上,人們覺得這裡就像大都市,人們是以感到從根本上失去了人性。我認為,持續的成本削減實際上破壞了工作場所的許多樂趣,因為沒有自由裁量權。

  • There's no sort of discretionary judgment allowed anymore because someone saw any deviation from this imaginary optimum as being a cost. And we go into work to some extent to exercise our humanity. And that would include not only economics or reason or logic.

    因為有人認為,任何偏離這個假想的最佳狀態的行為都是要付出代價的。在某種程度上,我們工作是為了行使我們的人性。這不僅包括經濟、理性或邏輯。

  • It would also include things like ethics, for example, what's fair. And, you know, this attempt, the great bold Canadian philosopher, I didn't really know much about until I came across him at a festival in Wales where he was speaking, called John Ralston Saul, who writes, he writes, actually, I wish I'd known about this when I wrote my book, because it is kind of this book famously called Pascal's Bastards.

    它還包括倫理之類的東西,比如,什麼是公平。而且,你知道,這個嘗試,這個偉大的大膽的加拿大哲學家,我並不是很瞭解,直到我在威爾士的一個節日上遇到了他,他在那裡演講,他叫約翰-拉爾斯頓-索爾,他寫道,他寫道,實際上,我希望我在寫我的書的時候就知道這一點,因為這本書就是著名的《帕斯卡的雜種》。

  • Voltaire's Bastards. And it's all about how effectively the French, you know, the French, as distinct from the Scottish Enlightenment, basically became fixated with reason, which is one of kind of what he calls seven, six human skill sets, I think, ethics, memory, instinct, creativity, you know, he lists about six human qualities.

    伏爾泰的雜種這本書講述了法國啟蒙運動與蘇格蘭啟蒙運動的不同之處,法國啟蒙運動是如何有效地固守理性的,理性是他所說的七種人類技能之一,我認為是人類的六種技能,道德、記憶、本能、創造力,你知道,他列出了人類的六種品質。

  • And what happened with the, you know, effectively with the French Enlightenment was that they became utterly fixated with reason as a problem solving mechanism to the exclusion of everything else. And he said, it's not designed to be used in isolation.

    在法國啟蒙運動中發生的事情就是 他們完全沉迷於將理性作為解決問題的機制 而將其他一切排除在外他說,理性不是用來孤立使用的。

  • You've used this term, psychological, psychology, psychology, a few times.

    你用過這個詞,心理、心理學、心理學,好幾次了。

  • You know, because it has to, it has to account for imperfect information, it has to account for variance in outcome, it has to account for asymmetrical information, and it has to account for imperfect trust.

    你知道,因為它必須考慮到不完善的資訊,必須考慮到結果的差異,必須考慮到不對稱的資訊,必須考慮到不完善的信任。

  • So, you know, we've evolved to effectively operate in decision making under uncertainty, as Herbert Simon called it. And yet most of the actual design of procedures that we encounter are designed for effectively information, you know, decision making under certainty.

    赫伯特-西蒙(Herbert Simon)稱之為 "不確定性下的決策"。然而,我們遇到的大多數實際程序設計都是為了有效地獲取信息,你知道,在確定性條件下做出決策。

  • And that's a very special case, which actually never applies completely, I would argue, but certainly very rarely actually occurs in the real world. It mainly actually is found in kind of economic models.

    這是一種非常特殊的情況,我認為它實際上從來沒有完全適用過,但在現實世界中肯定很少發生。它主要出現在經濟模型中。

  • You have a really good insight into why we think in this irrational, illogical way, which I love. I think you talk about how if we were, you know, evolving in the savanna, if an animal is very predictable and very logical, they're a lot easier to catch.

    你對我們為什麼會以這種非理性、不合邏輯的方式思考有很好的見解,我很喜歡。我想你談到了如果我們在熱帶草原上進化 如果一種動物非常有預見性和邏輯性 它們就會更容易被抓住

  • Yeah. Yeah. Can you just talk a bit about that?

    是啊 - 是啊 - Yeah.Yeah. - Yeah.你能談談這個嗎?

  • No, no, no. I mean, I mean, things like, you know, the ability to behave irrationally, you know. OK, there's a claim, by the way, of all the negative reviews I get, they weren't what I expected at all. There's about three pages in the book where I basically say being a bit double Trump has its virtues.

    不,不,不。我的意思是,我的意思是,像,你知道的, 行為非理性的能力,你知道的。好吧,順便說一句,在我收到的所有負面評論中,有一種說法,它們和我預想的完全不一樣。我在書中用了三頁紙的篇幅來闡述 做一個雙重特朗普也有它的好處

  • OK, which is that no one's going to dick with you because they're not entirely sure what you're going to do. Now, bear in mind, OK, this is this does not mean I'm I'm absolutely an uncritical admirer of the of the Donald.

    好吧,就是沒人會跟你上床 因為他們不確定你會怎麼做現在,請記住,OK,這並不意味著我是唐納德的絕對崇拜者。

  • OK, far from it. But the guy has operated in like the New York real estate scene for quite a long time. And one of the things you've got to you've got to learn in that business is that, you know, no one's going to survive in New York real estate if they can actually predict what you're going to do.

    好吧,遠非如此。但這傢伙在紐約房地產界經營了很長時間。在紐約房地產界,你必須學會的一件事就是,你知道,如果他們能預測到你要做什麼,那麼沒人能在紐約房地產界生存下去。

  • OK. Right. OK. I imagine. OK. That is not a world where being completely consistently logical, never losing your temper, never walking away from a deal, etc. You know, none of you have to be able to play that play those game theoretic moves.

    好的好的好的我想也是好吧這不是一個完全符合邏輯的世界 從不發脾氣 從不放棄交易等等你知道,你們都不需要去玩那些理論上的遊戲

  • OK. There were people who basically encountered this thing. Maybe I should put it right at the end of the book and I put it somewhere early on, who were then driven practically insane by this assertion. But the fact remains that, you know, there are certain circumstances in which the ability to behave irrationally is actually at the meta level, highly rational.

    好的有些人基本上遇到了這件事。也許我應該把它放在書的最後 而我把它放在很早以前的某個地方 他們被這個論斷逼瘋了但事實是,你知道,在某些情況下,非理性行為的能力實際上在元層面上是高度理性的。

  • You know, the fact that, you know, OK, OK, if I'm never going to fight back against anybody who's slightly taller than me, very rational. But I'm going to spend my whole life being dicked around by people who are a quarter of an inch, you know, taller than that. All right. Very rational. OK. They're bigger, stronger than me. Never do anything to retaliate.

    你知道,事實上,你知道,好吧,好吧,如果我永遠不會反抗任何比我稍微高一點的人,那是非常合理的。但我一輩子都會被比我高四分之一英寸的人耍得團團轉好吧 很理性 All right.非常理性好吧他們比我高大強壯永遠不要報復

  • Yeah. But no. OK. We have to have some degree of Darwin spotted this some degree of kind of random number generator in our makeup. And the classic example of this, which is I learned from Robert Trivers, the evolutionary biologist, is that when a hare is being chased by a dog.

    是啊但是沒有好吧我們必須有一定程度的達爾文斑點 在我們的構成中 有一定程度的隨機數發生器我從進化生物學家羅伯特-特里弗斯那裡 學到的一個經典例子 就是當一隻野兔被一隻狗追趕時

  • It goes into this incredibly random pattern of movement where it will kind of zoom straight up in the air. It will suddenly do a 90 degree turn to the right. It will then suddenly double back on itself at huge speed. And it appears, I don't know how they find this out, that it doesn't actually know what it's doing.

    它會進入一種令人難以置信的隨機運動模式,在空中直線放大。它會突然向右轉 90 度。然後突然以極快的速度折返回來我不知道他們是怎麼發現的 它似乎並不知道自己在做什麼

  • But there's a kind of random number generator in the hares. I think it's called in submarine warfare. It's called doing a crazy Ivan where you just execute kind of crazy maneuvers. It was the Russian submarines when being pursued by American submarines would do something called a crazy Ivan.

    但野兔裡有一種隨機數發生器我想這在潛艇戰中叫做 "瘋狂伊萬叫做 "瘋狂的伊萬" 在那裡你可以做一些瘋狂的動作俄羅斯潛艇在被美國潛艇追擊時 會做一些叫做 "瘋狂伊萬 "的動作

  • And the hare has the equivalent thing, which is basically just enters this random movement, high speed mode. And the point is, it can't consciously know what it's going to do next because the dog would then learn to anticipate what it was doing.

    野兔也有類似的情況 基本上就是進入這種隨機運動的高速模式關鍵是,它不可能有意識地知道自己下一步要做什麼,因為狗會學會預測它要做什麼。

  • It has to be random and it almost has to be unconscious because the hare cannot give away any telltale signs of what its next move might be. And so if the hare knew what the next move might be, it would actually start to reveal preparatory muscular movements, which the dog could learn to read.

    它必須是隨機的,而且幾乎必須是無意識的,因為野兔無法透露它下一步行動的任何蛛絲馬跡。是以,如果野兔知道下一個動作是什麼,它實際上就會開始顯露出準備性的肌肉運動,而狗可以學會解讀這些運動。

  • So, you know, but there are other reasons. I mean, there are other reasons why we need to be irrational from far less controversial, you know, or far less survival dependent reasons than this. For instance, the exercise of social intelligence. We have two very strong inbuilt. We don't utility maximize. We have two very strong inbuilt default modes in the human brain, one of which is habit.

    所以,你知道,但還有其他原因。我的意思是,還有其他原因讓我們需要非理性 從遠不那麼有爭議的,你知道,或遠不那麼依賴生存的原因比這個。例如,社會智慧的運用。我們有兩個非常強大的內在因素我們不追求效用最大化人腦中有兩種非常強大的固有模式 其中之一就是習慣

  • Do what I've done before. And the other one is social copying. Do what everybody else seems to be doing. And they make extraordinarily good sense in evolutionary terms because an organism that had to learn everything from first principles would eat a hell of a lot of poisonous berries rather than going, look, I've always eaten the yellow berries. I seem to be fine. I don't have the shits. Let's just stick to the yellow berries.

    做我以前做過的事。另一個是社會模仿。做其他人似乎都在做的事。從進化論的角度來看,這兩種做法非常合理 因為如果一個生物必須從第一原理學習一切 它就會吃很多有毒的漿果 而不是說,你看,我一直都吃黃色的漿果我看起來很好。我沒拉肚子我們還是堅持吃黃色漿果吧

  • Well, unless there's a massive shortage of yellow berries, that's probably a pretty good idea. Or equally, if you find yourself in a new environment or new habitat and all the other primates are eating the purple berries and nobody's touching the yellow ones in that environment, it's probably a good idea to copy them, you know, because there's extra intelligence there.

    除非黃色漿果大量短缺,否則這可能是個好主意。同樣,如果你發現自己到了一個新環境或新棲息地,而其他靈長類動物都在吃紫色漿果,沒有人去碰黃色漿果,那麼模仿它們也許是個好主意,因為那裡有額外的智慧。

  • You know, in other words, I can learn effectively from copying my past behavior or copying the behavior of others. I can I can actually, you know, it's a fairly low cost way of discovering low variance, low downside behaviors.

    你知道,換句話說,我可以從模仿自己過去的行為或模仿他人的行為中有效地學習。實際上,我可以,你知道,這是一種發現低變異、低劣勢行為的相當低成本的方式。

  • By the way, very interestingly, it actually was an A.I. which actually went into investigating what would be necessary for more people to have solar panels and more people to have heat pumps. And it is not to tell them the environmental benefits. It is not tell them how much money they'd save by having a heat pump.

    順便說一句,非常有趣的是,實際上是人工智能在調查如何讓更多的人使用太陽能電池板,如何讓更多的人使用熱泵。而不是告訴他們環保的好處。也不是告訴他們使用熱泵能省多少錢。

  • No. The single thing that would persuade people to have more heat pumps is if three people on their street had a heat pump. Okay. Now, to an economist, that drives them practically insane because they go, no, no, no. The behavior of your neighbors should be entirely relevant. You know, you should simply do the maths, calculate how much you'd save, compare that against the return you get in a high interest savings account and then decide whether the heat pump is worthy of the investment.

    不,唯一能說服人們安裝更多熱泵的方法是,如果他們所在的街道上有三個人安裝了熱泵。好吧對經濟學家來說,這幾乎會讓他們發瘋,因為他們會說,不,不,不。你鄰居的行為應該是完全相關的。你知道,你應該簡單地計算一下,算算你能省下多少錢,再與你在高息儲蓄賬戶中獲得的回報進行比較,然後決定熱泵是否值得投資。

  • But that's not how we work. We're not prepared to be the first person, you know, with the with the worst solution with electric cars. There's probably a very strong heuristic, which is every consumers learn, whether it was computers or DVDs or cassette decks or, you know, fax machines or actually washing machines.

    但這不是我們的工作方式。我們不準備做第一個人,你知道,用最差的辦法解決電動汽車問題。可能有一個很強的啟發式,那就是每個消費者都在學習,無論是電腦、DVD、卡帶機,還是傳真機或洗衣機。

  • Okay. But going back. Okay. With anything electrical, it kind of pays to wait because they get better very quickly and they get cheaper very quickly. So are people wrong, therefore, not to make that decision? Well, no. What they're doing is they're learning, you know, a heuristic from past experience, which, by the way, when it applies to anything with a plug, it's been pretty much proven.

    好吧,但是回去好的對於任何電器產品,等待都是值得的,因為它們很快就會變得更好,也很快就會變得更便宜。那麼,人們不做這個決定就錯了嗎?不對他們所做的是在學習,你知道,從過去的經驗中得到的啟發,順便說一句,當它適用於任何帶插頭的東西時,它已經被證明得差不多了。

  • You know, I have friends who bought the early flat screen televisions and they pay thousands and thousands of dollars for these things. And you go into their house. God, that's shit.

    你知道,我有朋友買了早期的平板電視,他們花了成千上萬美元買這些東西。你走進他們家天啊,那簡直是狗屎

  • You know, so I mean, an awful lot of these things are, you know, instinctive intuition that we've just learned through experience. And we don't know what the future is going to bring. But actually, it's what you might call decision making based on a reasonable expectation of something.

    你知道,所以我的意思是,很多事情都是,你知道,本能的直覺,我們只是從經驗中學到的。我們不知道未來會發生什麼。但實際上,這就是所謂的基於合理預期的決策。

  • This episode is brought to you by Coda. And I mean that literally. I use Coda every day to help me plan each episode of this very podcast. It's where I keep my content calendar, my guest research, and also the questions that I plan to ask each guest. Also, during the recording itself, I have a Coda page up to remind myself what I want to talk about.

    本期節目由 Coda 為您帶來。我是說真的。我每天都使用 Coda 來幫助我計劃這期播客的每一集。在這裡,我記錄了我的內容日曆、嘉賓研究以及我計劃向每位嘉賓提出的問題。此外,在錄製過程中,我也會打開 Coda 頁面,提醒自己要談論的內容。

  • Coda is an all in one platform that combines the best of documents, spreadsheets and apps to help you and your team get more done. Now is the perfect time to get started with Coda, especially its extensive planning capabilities. With Coda, you can stay aligned and ship faster by managing your planning cycles in one location.

    Coda 是一個集文檔、電子表格和應用程序於一身的平臺,可幫助您和您的團隊完成更多工作。現在是開始使用 Coda 的最佳時機,尤其是其廣泛的計劃功能。有了 Coda,您可以在一個位置管理您的計劃週期,從而保持步調一致,加快發貨速度。

  • You can set and measure OKRs with full visibility across teams and stakeholders. You can map dependencies, create progress visualizations and identify risk areas. Plus, you can access hundreds of pressure tested templates for everything from roadmap strategy to final decision making to PRDs. If you want a platform that empowers your team to strategize, plan and track goals together, you can get started with Coda today for free.

    您可以設置和衡量 OKRs,並在團隊和利益相關者之間實現完全可見性。您可以繪製依賴關係圖、創建進度可視化並識別風險區域。此外,您還可以訪問數百個經過壓力測試的模板,從路線圖戰略到最終決策再到 PRD,應有盡有。如果您想要一個能讓您的團隊共同制定戰略、計劃和跟蹤目標的平臺,現在就可以免費開始使用 Coda。

  • And if you want to see for yourself why product teams at high growth companies like Pinterest, Figma and Qualtrics run on Coda, take advantage of this special limited time offer just for startups. Head over to Coda.io slash Lenny to sign up and get $1,000 in credit. That's C-O-D-A.io slash Lenny to sign up and get $1,000 in credit. Coda.io slash Lenny.

    如果您想親自了解 Pinterest、Figma 和 Qualtrics 等高增長公司的產品團隊為何使用 Coda,請利用這個專為初創公司提供的限時優惠。前往 Coda.io slash Lenny 註冊,即可獲得 1000 美元積分。即 C-O-D-A.io slash Lenny 註冊並獲得 1000 美元積分。Coda.io slash Lenny。

  • Why is this so important? So, you know, there's many ways to try to win in business. There's, you know, like the typical approach, just let's think and brainstorm and come up with our best ideas. Your basic premise is too many of these are just very rational, logical approaches to a solution. Why is it so important to think outside the box like this?

    為什麼這一點如此重要?要知道,要想在商業中獲勝,方法有很多。有,你知道,就像典型的方法,讓我們思考,集思廣益,想出最好的點子。你的基本前提是,這些方法中有太多隻是非常理性、合乎邏輯的解決方案。為什麼跳出條條框框思考問題如此重要?

  • There's a joke in the UK. It's less true than it used to be because there was a famous actor called Jean-Claude Van Damme, who is known as the muscles from Brussels. But the old British joke 20 years ago was that there are no famous Belgians. Okay. And it's a bit weird. Why are there no famous Belgians? And it turns out it's a bit like why there aren't very many famous Canadians.

    英國有一個笑話。這個笑話沒有以前那麼真實了,因為有一個著名演員叫讓-克勞德-範-達姆(Jean-Claude Van Damme),人稱 "布魯塞爾肌肉男"。但20年前英國人的老笑話是 沒有著名的比利時人好吧這有點奇怪為什麼沒有比利時名人?事實證明,這有點像 為什麼沒有幾個有名的加拿大人。

  • And the reason is, if you're a famous Canadian, everybody assumes you're American. And if you're a famous Belgian, everybody assumes you're French, unless you're a painter from the Middle Ages, in which case you're not called Belgian at all. You're called Flemish. Okay. There are actually a lot of famous Belgians, but everybody assumes they're either French or they're called Flemish because they painted in the 16th century or something.

    原因是,如果你是加拿大名人,大家都會認為你是美國人。而如果你是比利時名人,大家都會認為你是法國人,除非你是中世紀的畫家,在這種情況下,你根本不叫比利時人。而是佛蘭德斯人好吧其實有很多有名的比利時人 但大家都認為他們要麼是法國人 要麼叫佛蘭德斯人 因為他們是16世紀的畫傢什麼的

  • And interestingly, for the same reason, there aren't very many famous marketing campaigns to launch new innovative products. Because when a product succeeds, everybody forgets the fact that it was the marketing that was instrumental to its success. When I say marketing, I mean, in its widest sense, I don't just mean the advertising, the communication, I mean, the positioning.

    有趣的是,出於同樣的原因,推出創新產品的著名營銷活動並不多。因為當一個產品獲得成功時,每個人都會忘記它的成功離不開市場營銷。我說的市場營銷,從最廣泛的意義上講,我指的不僅僅是廣告、傳播,我指的是定位。

  • We tend to look at great products. We go, you know, iPhone. Okay. The Ford Model T. Okay. And we tend to go, everything was a bit crap. And then Henry Ford came along with Steve Jobs came along and they had this invention and everybody immediately saw that this was brilliant and they went and bought it.

    我們傾向於關注偉大的產品。我們去,你知道,iPhone。福特T型車福特T型車我們往往會說,所有東西都有點垃圾。然後亨利-福特和史蒂夫-喬布斯出現了,他們有了這項發明,每個人都立刻意識到這是一項偉大的發明,於是紛紛購買。

  • I've got advertisements from 1916 advertising the benefits of electricity in the home. In fact, that was an advertising campaign that went on for about 30 years. I spent an early part of my work in Korean advertising persuading people to get the Internet in the late 1990s. Dial up Internet. Now, we forget all that because when we look back, we kind of concertina history and we go, there was no Internet. And then Tim Berners-Lee came up with the web and everybody wanted the Internet.

    我有 1916 年的廣告,宣傳家庭用電的好處。事實上,那是一個持續了大約 30 年的廣告活動。上世紀 90 年代末,我在韓國廣告業的早期工作是勸說人們使用互聯網。撥號上網。現在,我們忘記了這一切,因為當我們回首往事時,我們會發現,歷史上並沒有互聯網。然後蒂姆-伯納斯-李發明了網絡,每個人都想要互聯網。

  • Now, 20 years. Okay. I mean, you know, there are I mean, okay. The mobile phone was freakish because that was actually driven by social pressure in part. You know, you had no even people who didn't really want a mobile phone ended up having to get one because you look like a bit of an arsehole when people said, what's your mobile number and you couldn't give one.

    現在是20年好吧,我是說,你知道,我是說,好吧。手機是個怪胎,因為部分原因是社會壓力造成的。你知道,你沒有,甚至那些並不想要手機的人 最後也不得不買一個 因為當人們問你手機號碼是多少時

  • And also it became impossible to meet your friends because they said, OK, I'm not sure which pub we're going to, but we'll ring you on the mobile. If you said I haven't got a mobile, people will go, well, sod you. Okay. But most of these things, including smallpox vaccination. Okay.

    而且,你也不可能和朋友見面了,因為他們會說,好吧,我不確定我們要去哪家酒吧,但我們會用手機給你打電話。如果你說我沒有手機,人們就會說,好吧,去你媽的。 好吧。好吧,但大多數事情,包括天花疫苗接種,都是這樣的。好的

  • Edward Jenner, who basically came up with the cowpox as a vaccination against smallpox, which was the absolute plague of the 18th and possibly came to the New World. I'm not quite sure, but it was absolute plague about the 17th, 18th century. And he comes up with this basic vaccination thing.

    愛德華-詹納(Edward Jenner),他發明了牛痘疫苗來預防天花,天花是18世紀的大瘟疫,也可能傳到了新大陸。我不太確定,但它在 17、18 世紀是絕對的瘟疫。他提出了基本的疫苗接種方法

  • Huge opposition, unbelievable scepticism, massive suspicion. If you thought that anti-covid vaccination or something, this was on a par with that. His marketing coup was getting the British royal family to vaccinate their children, I think. Okay. Now, so what we're saying is that, first of all, when products succeed, we forget the extent to which marketing was actually instrumental or decisive in their success.

    巨大的反對聲浪,難以置信的懷疑態度,大量的猜疑。如果你認為這是反包蟲病疫苗接種什麼的,那這就和它不相上下了。他的營銷策略就是讓英國皇室為他們的孩子接種疫苗,我想。好吧現在,我們要說的是,首先,當產品取得成功時,我們會忘記營銷在多大程度上對產品的成功起到了推動或決定性的作用。

  • I mean, Steve Jobs was not a technologist. He was a pitch man. He was a huckster. I mean, this is compliments. Okay. He was a brilliant salesman. He was a fantastic marketer. The tech people at Apple didn't respect him. They said, I don't get what Steve even does. Like, he can't even code. Okay. But he was absolutely brilliant at everything from product design to, you know, to focusing on a on a limited number, to extraordinary taste, to giving those presentations.

    我是說,喬布斯不是技術專家。他是一個推銷員。他是個金光黨我是說 這是恭維話他是個出色的推銷員他是個出色的推銷員蘋果公司的技術人員不尊重他他們說,我不明白史蒂夫到底是幹什麼的他連代碼都不會寫但他在所有方面都非常出色 從產品設計到專注於有限的數量 再到非凡的品位 還有演講

  • And, you know, selling things as a magician, making making everybody believe that Apple was capable of magic. And therefore, you didn't need the skeptic. Now. So, first of all, marketing plays and timing and luck, by the way, let's also include those. These other factors play a much greater role in both the the speed of adoption and the success of adoption and anything remotely new.

    像魔術師一樣賣東西,讓大家相信蘋果公司能變魔術。是以 你不需要懷疑論者現在所以,首先,營銷手段、時機和運氣,順便也包括在內。這些因素對新產品的採用速度和成功率都有很大的影響。

  • But in hindsight, we we forget the marketing and we don't say we never say because of the great marketing, I bought that product. We go, I bought it because it was a great product, but we thought it was a great product because of the marketing.

    但事後看來,我們會忘記營銷,我們不會說,我們從來不會說,因為營銷做得好,所以我買了那個產品。我們會說,我買它是因為它是個好產品,但我們認為它是個好產品是因為營銷。

  • We have to persuade people to get electricity. We have to persuade people to vaccinate against smallpox. Penicillin came up against a lot of, you know, hostility in very early stages. Right. Okay. Also. Let's not forget, we're only looking at the successes.

    我們必須說服人們用上電。我們必須說服人們接種天花疫苗。青黴素在早期階段就遇到了很多敵意對好吧還有別忘了 我們只看到了成功的一面

  • I think they've been great products, which are genuinely intrinsically a good idea. I mentioned MetaPortal TV. I'd also include Google Glass. I'd also include the Winebox. I'd include the Japanese toilet. Okay. Right. I'd include the air fryer until recently.

    我認為它們都是偉大的產品,本質上都是真正的好主意。我提到過 MetaPortal TV。我還提到了谷歌眼鏡。我還提到了 Winebox。還有日本馬桶。好吧好吧直到最近,我還會把空氣炸鍋也算進去。

  • These are all utterly brilliant things. But it took in the case of the Japanese toilet and the Winebox and Google Glass, something about the timing or the marketing, not the product. Something was wrong. And the consumer basically never bit. It never reached critical mass. They didn't. Somehow they couldn't cross the chasm of the earlier doctor. I still think it's barbaric. I've got a Japanese toilet here. I don't have one in my other little flat.

    這些都是非常了不起的事情。但就日本馬桶、酒盒和谷歌眼鏡而言,它們都是時機或營銷方面的問題,而不是產品的問題。出了問題。而消費者基本上從未上鉤。它從未達到臨界品質。他們沒有。不知何故,他們無法跨越早期醫生的鴻溝。我仍然認為這是野蠻的。我這有個日本馬桶我另一個小公寓裡就沒有

  • It's barbaric that the Western Hemisphere dry wipes. Right. The whole of the Middle East has a bum gun. You know, in Japan, your lavatory quite rightly cleans your rectum with water, as God intended. Okay. And for some reason, we in the sophisticated West are there with a dry bit of paper scraping it up over our anus. This is medieval. Okay. I mean, think about other things.

    西半球的人幹抹布,太野蠻了。對整個中東都有 "屁股槍要知道,在日本,你的盥洗室會用清水清洗直腸 這是上帝的旨意好吧而我們西方人卻用幹紙在肛門上刮來刮去這簡直就是中世紀好吧,我是說,想想其他事情

  • Nobody has keys. You compare how easy it is to get into your car. You've got some keys somewhere in your purse, in your handbag, in your briefcase. You're not really sure where the keys are. You walk up to your bloody car and you open the door. Your house. It's fucking 1720. You've got to rattle some metal things to get into the house. Why? House building. Okay. I mean, house building, the way we build houses will be recognisable to a Roma.

    沒人有鑰匙。你可以比較一下上車有多容易。你的錢包裡、手提包裡、公文包裡都有鑰匙。你並不確定鑰匙在哪裡。你走到該死的車前,打開車門。你的房子現在是他媽的17點20分你得撥動一些金屬東西才能進屋 為什麼?為什麼?好吧,我是說蓋房子 我們蓋房子的方式對羅姆人來說很容易辨認

  • The Romans never invented the stirrup. Do you believe that? They didn't actually have a stirrup for horses. So you basically had to click on with your knees. Oh, okay. So what's so fascinating? The wine box, by the way, really fascinates me because in a logic, the Kindle is only really, you know, it's kind of taken up to where I thought when the Kindle and tablet came along, I admit this, I thought, okay, well, that's the end of the fling line for physical books.

    羅馬人從未發明過馬鐙。你相信嗎?他們其實沒有馬鐙所以你只能用膝蓋蹬馬哦,好吧什麼這麼迷人?順便說一句,這個酒盒真的讓我著迷,因為從邏輯上講,Kindle才是真正的,你知道,它有點像我想的那樣,當Kindle和平板電腦出現時,我承認這一點,我想,好吧,好吧,這就是實體書的終結。

  • And in fairness, I travel a lot. So I have quite a lot of ebooks because I can then pack one tablet in my bag. I'm carrying a library around with me, which is, you know, quite a long plane flight. It's a lot better than having to pack eight books and decide which one you're going to read when you get there. But if you don't travel around, people seem to prefer physical books, for example. People like these things, actually, like, what's that funny Scandinavian thing you write on? You know, that pad thing?

    平心而論,我經常旅行。所以我有很多電子書,因為我可以在包裡放一個平板電腦。我隨身攜帶著一個圖書館,你知道,這是相當長的飛機飛行時間。這比帶八本書,到了目的地再決定讀哪一本要好得多。但如果你不四處旅行,人們似乎更喜歡實體書。實際上,人們喜歡這些東西,比如,你寫在上面的那個有趣的斯堪的納維亞東西是什麼?你知道,那個墊子?

  • Remarkable, remarkable.

    了不起,了不起

  • Okay, people like that, actually, because it allows you to do less. Okay. It allows you to concentrate because you don't get emails, you don't get distractions, etc. But the wine box, I mean, you know, it should have basically, you know, we should. It keeps for weeks. Okay, it's got its own tap. You can have a glass of wine in the evening without opening a bottle and letting the other five, you know, five glasses go off. You're not forced to become a raging alcoholic. If you leave, you're not forced to become a raging alcoholic.

    事實上,人們喜歡這樣,因為這樣可以讓你少做事。它能讓你集中精力,因為你不會收到郵件,不會分心,等等。但酒盒,我的意思是,你知道,它應該有 基本上,你知道,我們應該。它可以保存好幾個星期好吧,它有自己的水龍頭。你可以在晚上喝上一杯,而不用打開酒瓶,讓其他五個,你知道的,五個杯子都熄滅。你不會被迫變成一個狂暴的酒鬼。如果你離開了,你也不會被迫變成一個狂暴的酒鬼。

  • If you live alone, which you kind of are with wine bottles. Okay. But all of these things, vastly better, you know, keep it in the fridge, dah, dah, dah, dah. Didn't succeed. Entirely psychological. You know, in terms of logical, you know, products, I mean, the Japanese toilet, why the hell is that? You know, I looked actually recently at the most expensive flat in London, which is someplace in Knightsbridge, which is going for like 110 million pounds.

    如果你一個人住,你就得用酒瓶,好吧。好吧,但所有這些東西,都要放在冰箱裡,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒,嗒嗒嗒嗒。沒成功完全是心理作用你知道,就邏輯而言,你知道,產品, 我的意思是,日本的廁所,這到底是為什麼?我最近看了倫敦最貴的公寓 就在騎士橋的某個地方 大概要1. 1億英鎊吧

  • $110 million or something. And you've got to wipe your own ass. It's 110 million for this place and the toilets. Now, I imagine if there's a Middle Eastern owner, they'll go and retrofit some bum guns in there. How flaming weird is that? You know, I mean, seriously strange. And you realise that actually, you know, I mean, Google Glass, I mean, it was kind of marketing cock up, they launched a bit too soon.

    1億1千萬美元什麼的你得自己擦屁股了這地方和廁所要1. 1億美元現在,我想如果有一箇中東業主, 他們會去和改裝 一些流浪漢槍在那裡。這多奇怪啊你知道,我是說,非常奇怪你會意識到,谷歌眼鏡 其實是市場營銷的失誤 他們推出得有點太早了

  • Then they only gave the bloody glasses to developers. Now, with the best will of the world, developers probably are the world's like coolest people. Okay. They're not the people you want to have walking around your bar wearing Google Glass. The user imagery wasn't that great. And so you have these really interesting phenomena. I would have bought Google Glass, actually, even at the insane launch price of about $1,000.

    後來,他們只給開發人員戴上了這副該死的眼鏡。現在,開發人員可能是世界上最酷的人了。好吧他們可不是你想讓戴著谷歌眼鏡在酒吧裡走來走去的人。用戶體驗也沒那麼好於是就有了這些有趣的現象。實際上,即使谷歌眼鏡的首發價只有1000美元,我也會買的。

  • Because I would really, really like being able to walk around. Now, I don't know what I'm telling you. Now, I don't know what the time is. I don't know when my next meeting starts. I don't know what the weather's like outside. If I just had regular in-eye updates, a kind of heads up display for shit that's going on in my life that just reminds me of stuff. I easily without having to look at a digital watch. I bought these bloody both Android and Apple watches.

    因為我真的真的很想能到處走走。我不知道我在說什麼我不知道現在幾點了我不知道下一個會議什麼時候開始我不知道外面天氣如何如果我有一個定期的眼內更新,一種提醒我生活中正在發生的事情的抬頭顯示器。這樣我就不用看電子錶了。我買了這些帶血的安卓和蘋果手錶。

  • And yeah, I might as well get my phone out. Basically, I've got an ordinary analog watch here. But actually having something which you can wear, which just goes your next meeting starts in five minutes. The guy you're talking to is called Lemmy, you know, all that stuff. We really, really good. I have no idea where the metaportal to you apart from this business of the privacy thing with Facebook. But if any product deserved to succeed in the pandemic for crying out loud.

    對了,我還得把手機拿出來。基本上,我這有一塊普通的模擬手錶。但實際上,有一個你可以戴著的東西 它會顯示你的下一個會議五分鐘後開始和你說話的人叫萊米,你知道的,所有這些東西。我們非常非常棒我不知道除了 Facebook 的隱私問題之外,你還有什麼新的想法。但是,如果任何產品值得成功 在大流行的哭出聲來。

  • It was video conferencing on your TV, and yet it just didn't. And so, you know, don't think the other thing I'd say is don't think because of products failed in the past that you shouldn't try again because, you know, that famous thing, you know, that the definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and again and expecting a different result. That's not the definition of insanity. That's the definition of a complex system.

    它是在電視上進行視頻會議,但它沒有成功。所以,你知道,我要說的另一件事是,不要以為過去的產品失敗了,你就不應該再試一次,因為,你知道,那件著名的事情,你知道,精神錯亂的定義就是一次又一次地嘗試同樣的事情,卻期望得到不同的結果。這不是精神錯亂的定義。這才是複雜系統的定義。

  • You know, that actually, I mean, quite a lot of Internet ideas failed, I think quite a lot of online ideas fail because they were just mistimed. Typically, you know, some good ideas were too early. Great little thing actually called the Chumby, which I had about three of them, and they were little Internet connected devices. And they just cycled through little screens, which would say like little applets, like little kind of you probably an iPhone user, but what we call them widgets.

    你知道,實際上,我的意思是,很多互聯網創意都失敗了,我認為很多網絡創意的失敗都是因為時機不對。通常情況下,你知道,有些好點子出現得太早了。有一個很棒的小玩意兒叫 Chumby,我有三個,它們都是連接互聯網的小設備。它們只是在小螢幕上循環播放,就像小程序一樣,就像你可能是iPhone用戶的那種小程序,但我們稱之為小部件。

  • Okay, on the screen, and they go, these are the trains to your local station. They're on time. They're not on time. They're running late. This is the weather. This is the latest newsflash from the New York Times. And they just cycle through that stuff. They'd sit in a little cuddly little thing. I had about three of these. I thought they were fantastic. But again, I mean, okay, I'll give you two examples of this about timing.

    好了,螢幕上顯示,這些是開往當地車站的列車。準點不準時晚點了這是天氣預報這是《紐約時報》的最新消息。他們就這樣循環著這些東西。他們會坐在一個可愛的小東西里我有三個這樣的東西我覺得它們棒極了但是,我的意思是,好吧,我再給你舉兩個關於時機的例子。

  • It's 1989. Okay. I sign out a mobile phone. It's like a brick. It's made by Motorola. Sign out a mobile phone from the office in 1989 because I'm going to a meeting somewhere off site and I need to be contactable. So you didn't have your own mobile phone. No, the office had about eight of them and you signed one out and they were kept charging in the office.

    現在是 1989 年好吧,我簽收了一部手機像塊磚頭摩托羅拉生產的1989年,我在辦公室簽出一部手機 因為我要去外地開會,需要保持聯繫所以你沒有自己的手機。是的,辦公室裡有八部手機,你簽出一部,手機就放在辦公室裡充電。

  • You signed one out. You told your team what your number was for the day and you set out to your trip. So I'm walking down Oxford Street with this mobile phone and someone rings me. So I haven't got any choice. I have to answer it. Okay. So I'm speaking on a mobile phone in Oxford Street, Business Street in London in 1989. Two people shout abuse at me from passing cars for using a mobile phone.

    你簽了名。你告訴你的團隊你今天的號碼 然後你就出發了我拿著手機走在牛津街上 有人給我打電話我別無選擇我必須接1989年,我在牛津街的商業街用手機通話。有兩個人在路過的車輛上大聲辱罵我 因為我在使用手機

  • Second case in. Let me see if I can date this. It would be about 2000 and. Oh, crikey. I guess about 2003, 2004. There was a company started by some American expats called Food Ferry in London, and I think it was a hybrid CD-ROM.

    第二個案例讓我看看能不能確定日期。大概是2000年天吶我猜大概是2003到2004年有一家公司是由一些美國外籍人士在倫敦創辦的,叫 "食品渡輪",我想那是一張混合光盤。

  • You actually had a CD-ROM of most of the stuff and you went online, you ordered your groceries and they delivered them to you. And I mentioned to someone in 2000, it would have been the early 2000s, that I actually ordered my home groceries on the Internet and they laughed in my face.

    實際上,你有一張包含大部分內容的光盤,你上網訂購雜貨,他們就會給你送貨上門。我曾在 2000 年(應該是本世紀初)跟別人提過,我其實是在網上訂購家庭日用品的,他們都笑我。

  • I mean, just literally they went over, they said, hey, you'll never get this guy. You know, you fucking course groceries on the Internet. And that was this is my point. I'm saying is that there's this huge, huge psychological hurdle to changing behavior or to getting people to adopt behavior, which is slightly unusual.

    我的意思是,只是從字面上 他們去了,他們說, 嘿,你永遠不會得到這個傢伙。你知道,你他媽的 當然雜貨 在互聯網上。這就是我要說的我想說的是,要改變人們的行為習慣 或者讓人們接受這種行為習慣 有著巨大的心理障礙,這有點不尋常

  • There was massive. I mean, OK, one story. I then bought my own mobile phone. This would have been about nine. This was eighty nine. I was borrowing the phone. It would have been about ninety five, ninety six when I actually had my own mobile phone, maybe ninety four.

    有大量的。我是說,好吧,就一個故事。後來我買了自己的手機。當時大概是九歲那是八九年我的手機是借來的當我真正擁有自己的手機時,大概是95到96年,也許是94年。

  • I'm trying to work it out and I'm on the top of a bus in London and somebody rings me and they ring me from the States. It's my friend Ted, who is a biochemist at Penn, I think at the time. And I said something on the phone. I'm sitting on the top of a bus and I said something on a phone which made it obvious I was speaking to someone in America. It was like, what time is it with you or what's the weather like over there?

    我正在想辦法 我在倫敦的公車頂上 有人給我打電話 他們從美國打過來的是我的朋友泰德 他是賓夕法尼亞大學的生物化學家 我想當時是的我在電話裡說了些話我坐在公車頂上,在電話裡說了幾句 很明顯我是在跟美國的人通話好像是說,你現在幾點了? 或者那邊天氣怎麼樣?

  • Basically, it was obvious I was making an international call on a mobile phone, the top of the bus. I actually thought there was a mild risk of physical attack because that was such an extraordinarily twatty thing to do. And I suddenly realized it's because I'm old. I'm fifty eight. You know, I suddenly realized that a lot of younger people don't have the chronological context.

    基本上,很明顯我是在公車頂上用手機打國際電話。實際上,我還以為會有輕微的人身攻擊風險,因為這實在是一件非常娘娘腔的事情。我突然意識到這是因為我老了。我已經58歲了你知道,我突然意識到,很多年輕人沒有年代背景。

  • They just assume that, you know, there was no Internet and then the Internet came along. So everybody got it. You know, OK, the smartphone was the mobile phone itself was not rapid. They've existed for about 50 years.

    他們只是假設,你知道,以前沒有互聯網,然後互聯網出現了。所以大家都明白了。要知道,智能手機和手機本身的發展並不迅速。它們已經存在了大約 50 年。

  • Right. You have to be pretty rich. Most, most people in people's cars. I saw someone with a portable telephone, I think, in 1984. And that was a really weird thing.

    沒錯你得很有錢大多數人都在別人的車裡我見過有人帶著便攜式電話 我想是在1984年吧那真是件怪事

  • They weren't fast. The smartphone was pretty fast. I grabbed that. That was that that was a that was a freak exception. Most of these things are really God, I'm slow. And also, if you get your marketing wrong or if you miss if you miss time, your launch or if you just misjudge some aspect of your launch psychologically, you can take something which is intrinsically a brilliant product and it will fail to bite.

    它們並不快。智能手機很快。我抓住了這一點。那是那是那是一個怪異的例外。大多數事情都是天意,我太慢了。還有,如果你的營銷策略不對,或者你錯過了發佈時間,或者你對發佈的某些方面心理判斷失誤,你就可能把一個本質上很出色的產品搞砸。

  • That's why I think this is really important, because we we have survivorship bias. We only look at the successes. No one's there going. I mean, certain things like, I mean, the fact that we still open our houses with keys.

    這就是為什麼我認為這一點非常重要,因為我們有幸存者偏差。我們只看成功者。沒有人去那裡。我的意思是,某些事情,我的意思是,事實上,我們仍然打開我們的房子鑰匙。

  • I agree. I'm excited. I'm excited for the Tesla version.

    我同意。我很興奮。我為特斯拉版本感到興奮。

  • Yeah, I'm completely I'm completely.

    是啊,我完全 我完全。

  • You've shared all these amazing examples of products that are great, but didn't work out. Many of the reasons that that happens is within a company, it's very hard to share and suggest silly ideas, as you describe. And you have this actually really cool suggestion that I wanted to highlight, which is first share like the logical, rational, typical answer.

    你分享了很多很棒的產品,但卻沒有成功的例子。出現這種情況的許多原因是,在公司內部,很難像你描述的那樣分享和提出愚蠢的想法。我想強調的是,你有一個非常棒的建議,那就是首先分享符合邏輯的、理性的、典型的答案。

  • And then I think it's great time to think about the silly, crazy idea. Can you talk a bit about that, just how to operationalize this a little bit?

    然後,我認為這是思考愚蠢、瘋狂想法的大好時機。你能談談這個問題嗎?

  • According to Herodotus, writing in about what is it, I suppose, the sixth century B.C. I was there about fifth. I should know. The ancient Persians, when they had to deliberate, they debated everything twice, once while sober and once while drunk. And only if they agreed in both states would they go ahead with the course of action.

    根據希羅多德的記載,我猜他是在公元前六世紀寫的。我應該知道古波斯人,當他們需要商議的時候,他們會把所有事情辯論兩次,一次是清醒的時候,一次是喝醉的時候。只有當他們在兩種狀態下都達成一致時 他們才會採取相應的行動

  • Now, I don't know whether being drunk is just an opportunity to come up with a better idea, OK, or whether it's a question of does this appeal to us rationally? Does this also appeal to us emotionally? OK, I don't know. There's something really, really interesting about having what you might call to a two stage, a double lock of decision making, which is OK.

    現在,我不知道醉酒是否只是一個想出更好主意的機會,好嗎,或者這是否是一個理性上吸引我們的問題?這在情感上也能吸引我們嗎?好吧,我不知道。有一些非常非常有趣的東西,你可以稱之為決策的兩個階段,雙重鎖定,這很好。

  • There's this fundamental asymmetry, which is creative people have to present their ideas to rational people for approval. OK, fine. Don't mind that. Never happens the other way around. You never get you never get engineers or accountants saying, well, I think the answer is three point seven five. But before I go and present this, I'm going to share it with some wacky people to see if they can come up with a neater, more cunning idea.

    有一種基本的不對稱,那就是有創造力的人必須把他們的想法呈現給理性的人,以獲得認可。好吧別介意從來沒有發生過相反的情況。你永遠不會聽到工程師或會計師說,我覺得答案是375。但在我提出這個想法之前,我要先和一些古怪的人分享一下 看看他們能不能想出一個更整潔、更狡猾的主意。

  • So that's one issue. I mean, the other issue would be, I mean, talking about products that fail, by the way, Ford and Edison, OK, collaborated on an early, I think the first decade of the 20th century, an early electric car.

    這是一個問題。我的意思是,另一個問題是,我的意思是,說到失敗的產品,順便說一下,福特和愛迪生合作開發了早期的電動汽車,我想是在 20 世紀的第一個十年。

  • Now, watch this on Jay Leno's garage, by the way. I think that Jay Leno is a greater philanthropist than Bill Gates. OK, Bill Gates is quite useful if you're in Africa, if you've got malaria or something, but he's not much use to me. Jay Leno, on the other hand, takes a vast fortune, buys and restores amazing cars and then shares videos about them on YouTube. Now, that's great if you're in Africa and it's great if you're me. OK, it's fantastic.

    現在,順便看一下傑-雷諾車庫裡的這段視頻。我認為傑-雷諾是比比爾-蓋茨更偉大的慈善家。好吧,如果你在非洲,如果你得了瘧疾什麼的,比爾-蓋茨還是挺有用的,但他對我沒什麼用。另一方面,傑伊-雷諾(Jay Leno)擁有鉅額財富,他購買並修復令人驚歎的汽車,然後在 YouTube 上分享有關這些汽車的視頻。現在,如果你在非洲,這很好,如果你是我,這也很好。好吧,這太棒了。

  • Interestingly, the electric car, according to Leno and according to other articles I've read, was actually quite good. It was quiet. It was, you know, unbelievably good acceleration and the range wasn't terrible. And for the time, the speed wasn't bad. What killed it, interestingly, user imagery.

    有趣的是,根據萊諾和我讀到的其他文章,這輛電動汽車實際上相當不錯。它很安靜。你知道,它的加速性能好得令人難以置信,續航能力也不差。就當時而言,速度也不差。有趣的是,它的致命傷是用戶的想象力。

  • Right. And the user imagery was because it was quiet, you didn't have to hand crank it. It didn't give off fumes. It didn't make a loud noise. They were really popular with women and they became stereotyped as like woman's car. Meanwhile, all the people doing the jalopy racing and that kind of customisation, all the farm boys were using gasoline cars.

    沒錯用戶的想象力是因為它很安靜 你不用手搖它它不會發出煙霧不會發出很大的噪音它們很受女性歡迎 於是被定型為女性專用車與此同時,所有的人都在開賽車和定製車 所有的農場男孩都在開汽油車

  • Now, fast forward. What's so fascinating? Fast forward to 2025. I'm quite pro-electric cars. I've got two and my wife has one of them. And I like them both. I wouldn't go back to gasoline because I think they're great. OK, they're lovely to drive. They're like a limousine and a go-kart. They have very few moving parts. They're incredibly quiet. They're just lovely. OK, just drive one and you'll see what I mean.

    現在,快進。什麼如此迷人?快進到2025年我非常支持電動汽車我有兩輛,我妻子也有一輛我都很喜歡我不會再用汽油車,因為我覺得它們很棒。開起來很舒服就像豪華轎車和卡丁車一樣活動部件很少非常安靜非常可愛好吧,開上一輛你就明白我的意思了

  • And when I write in favour of electric cars, I get all these comments in the spectator comments below of people who really hate them. And when they write to me, what it boils down to is they think it's user imagery like Google Glass.

    當我寫文章支持電動汽車時,我就會在下面的觀眾評論中收到一些非常討厭電動汽車的人的評論。當他們給我寫信時,歸根結底是他們認為電動汽車是用戶的想象,就像谷歌眼鏡一樣。

  • And actually, there's a problem with all tech products because the first people to adopt innovative products tend to be slightly weird. OK, and weird people do not confer the reassurance of kind of social norms in the way that adoption by conventional people does.

    實際上,所有的科技產品都有一個問題,因為最先採用創新產品的人往往都有點怪異。好吧,怪異的人並不能像傳統的人那樣,獲得社會規範的保證。

  • If you've got your weird millionaire rich nutter and he's got, you know, he's got a wind farm and he's got a heat pump, it doesn't make ordinary people think, oh, I must do the same. Now, what's happening here is that I didn't realise this, but all the people who don't have electric cars see the people with electric cars go smug environmental tosser who's looking down on me because I've got a diesel and thinks he's saving the planet, even though you've had to mine all this cobalt and lithium and whatever.

    如果你有個怪異的百萬富翁,他有個風力發電廠,他有個熱泵,這不會讓普通人覺得,哦,我也得這麼做。現在的情況是,我沒有意識到這一點,但所有沒有電動車的人 都認為有電動車的人是自以為是的環保狂人,因為我有柴油車就看不起我,認為他在拯救地球,儘管你不得不開採這些鈷和鋰之類的東西。

  • To produce the battery. What a trap. Now, the interesting thing about this, OK, is that in very few cases I can encounter, I can remember, OK, is the electric car owners actually very interested in the environment. They're not. Similarly, when you meet environmental people, OK, they don't have electric cars.

    生產電池真是個陷阱現在,有趣的是,在我能遇到的極少數情況下,我能記得,電動汽車的車主實際上對環境非常感興趣。他們不是同樣,當你遇到環保人士時,他們也沒有電動汽車。

  • They've always got some crappy excuse like, yeah, but my wife needs to do the school run and said we decided we get a diesel. Right. Right. I don't know why. OK, you meet these people, you go to environmental conferences and you say, so you're really keen on the environment. You've got an electric car. Well, we thought about getting one.

    他們總是找一些蹩腳的藉口,比如,是啊,但我妻子需要跑學校,所以我們決定買輛柴油車。好吧 好吧 Right.對我也不知道為什麼好吧,你遇到這些人,你去參加環保會議,你說,你真的很熱衷於環保。你們有一輛電動車我們也想過買一輛

  • Meanwhile, all the people in like Essex, you know, Jersey. Right. Who just really like cars or really like tech. Other people buying electric cars. It's got almost nothing to do with environmental credentials. And yet by actually imbuing these electric cars with kind of Prius style, you know, sort of values of smugness.

    同時,所有的人 在像埃塞克斯, 你知道,新澤西州。對喜歡汽車或科技的人其他買電動車的人這跟環保沒什麼關係但實際上,這些電動車被賦予了普銳斯的風格 你知道,自以為是的價值觀

  • It's actually a huge obstacle to adoption because people just I don't want to be that kind of person. Now, actually, OK, I went ahead and electric car three years ago. There are fewer charging points than there are now.

    這實際上是採用電動汽車的一個巨大障礙,因為我不想成為那樣的人。實際上,三年前我就開始使用電動汽車了。當時的充電樁比現在還少。

  • But what I noticed was really odd, OK, was that if you wanted to charge in like Billericay, OK, in Essex. OK, imagine New Jersey. OK, imagine, you know, Trenton. OK, loads of charging places there.

    但我注意到一個很奇怪的現象 如果你想在埃塞克斯郡的比勒裡凱收費想象一下紐澤西想象一下特倫頓那裡有很多充電的地方

  • All right. You went somewhere really woke, you know, you imagine, you know, Cambridge, Massachusetts or whatever. Nowhere to charge Cambridge, Cambridge, England, absolute desert for car chargers.

    好吧你去的地方真的醒了,你知道, 你想象一下,你知道, 劍橋,馬薩諸塞州或什麼的。無處充電的劍橋,劍橋,英國,絕對是汽車充電器的沙漠。

  • Brighton, which is like the most right on city on the south coast of England. Nowhere to charge at all. But you went somewhere, you know, you went somewhere a bit bling, a bit.

    布萊頓,英國南海岸最右邊的城市。根本沒地方充電但你去的地方,你知道, 你去的地方有點金碧輝煌,有點,

  • OK, right back. Loads of charges. What the hell's going on here? And to be honest, OK, what's happened is we've we've we've imbued electric car owners with this holier than thou kind of aura which causes other people to resent them, despite the fact that incredibly few of them.

    好的,馬上回來很多指控這到底是怎麼回事?老實說,現在的情況是 我們給電動車車主灌輸了一種聖潔的光環 導致其他人對他們產生反感 儘管事實上他們的數量少得驚人

  • All right. Are really doing this for environmental reasons. They may be happy to have zero emission cars. I would like to get solar panels to charge my car, not really to reduce carbon emissions, but just to be really cool to have a car that runs on the sun.

    好吧他們這樣做真的是為了環保嗎?他們可能很高興能擁有零排放的汽車。我想用太陽能電池板給我的汽車充電,不是真的為了減少碳排放,只是想擁有一輛靠太陽行駛的汽車,真的很酷。

  • OK, I'd quite like solar panels on my house. Not really. Some say the planet, but I like it. Dinner parties to, you know, or rather lunchtime, wouldn't it? Yeah. To go to a picnic and go, well, I'm getting I'm getting two kilowatts on my app.

    好吧,我很想在家裡安裝太陽能電池板。也不盡然。有人說會影響地球,但我喜歡。晚餐聚會,你知道, 或者更確切地說,午餐時間,不是嗎?對啊去野餐的時候,我的應用就有兩千瓦了

  • OK, to be honest, that's the kind of actually the reason most people adopt new technology is peacock's tail. It's showing off. The first cars weren't as good as horses and carts.

    好吧,說實話,大多數人採用新技術的原因其實就是孔雀尾巴。這是一種炫耀。最早的汽車還不如馬和車。

  • They were done to show off. They were done for novelty seeking reasons or for reasons of status display. And that's what rich people are for. They provide the early stage funding for promising ideas before they really reach maturity.

    他們這樣做是為了炫耀。是為了追求新奇,或是為了顯示地位。這就是有錢人的目的。在有前途的創意真正成熟之前,他們為其提供早期資金。

  • It's famously the argument is that birds evolved wings as sexual display plumage before they became large enough to function as a mode of propulsion.

    一個著名的論點是,鳥類進化出翅膀作為性展示的羽毛後,翅膀才變得足夠大,可以作為一種推進方式。

  • So birds which seem to have evolved from dinosaurs for the most part, the logic is that they they first of all got wings as a form of sexual display. The peacock got the tail. OK, but most other birds did the display with the wings to look cool.

    是以,大部分鳥類似乎都是由恐龍進化而來的,其邏輯是它們首先有了翅膀,作為一種性展示的形式。孔雀有了尾巴。好吧,但其他大多數鳥類用翅膀進行展示是為了看起來很酷。

  • So I think dinosaurs had feathers, didn't they? They think I'm right. OK, so there was no sexual display thing going on. And eventually they thought, oh, actually, you know, I did this to show off, but I can actually get to that branch.

    所以我認為恐龍有羽毛,不是嗎?他們認為我是對的好吧,所以沒有性展示的事情發生最後他們想,哦,實際上,你知道,我這樣做是為了炫耀,但我實際上可以到那根樹枝上去。

  • And so there's that early stage funding argument. And what actually provides the early stage funding for new promising ideas is quite often slightly quenched people like me.

    所以就有了早期融資的說法。而為有前途的新創意提供早期資金的,往往是像我這樣略顯窘迫的人。

  • But we've got to be conscious of the fact that. And also, if you really evangelize new things, you know, I was an air fryer evangelist literally going back over 10 years, 15 years ago.

    但我們必須意識到這一點。另外,如果你真的向新事物傳福音,你知道,我是一個空氣炸鍋傳道者,從字面上可以追溯到10多年前,15年前。

  • I was like the John the Baptist of air fryers, you know, and I occasionally say to an audience of 500 people, if you've got anybody here got an air fryer and there'd always be six people go, yeah, best thing I've ever bought.

    我就像空氣炸鍋界的施洗約翰,你知道,我偶爾會對500名觀眾說,如果你們這裡有人買了空氣炸鍋,總會有6個人說,是啊,這是我買過的最好的東西。

  • And it's something that came to me that actually in a way that that actually annoys everybody else. It's not people going, come on, these people with air fryers, they really like these air fryers.

    我突然意識到,這其實是一種讓其他人都感到惱火的方式。這不是人們去,來吧, 這些人與空氣炸鍋, 他們真的很喜歡這些空氣炸鍋。

  • Maybe I'll look at getting an air fryer instead. It's like these people are in a cult. What you have to realize working in marketing is that people in marketing are very high in openness, very high in openness to experience, very, very keen to stand out, very keen to be distinctive.

    也許我會考慮買個空氣炸鍋。這些人就像信了邪教一樣。在市場營銷領域工作,你必須意識到,市場營銷人員的開放性非常高,對經驗的開放性非常高,非常非常渴望脫穎而出,非常渴望與眾不同。

  • The majority of the population are much lower on openness to experience. They're much more driven by habit and social norms, and largely they want to fit in.

    大多數人的經驗開放度要低得多。他們更多的是受習慣和社會規範的驅使,主要是想融入社會。

  • They feel comfortable when they fit in with the people around them.

    當他們融入周圍的人時,他們會感到舒適。

  • It's a slightly unusual kind of corporate environment where people actually want to kind of effectively play constant games of one upmanship with their kind of workmates, which tends to happen in marketing and other functions and tends to happen actually at the higher levels of corporations.

    這是一種略微不同尋常的企業環境,在這種環境中,人們實際上希望與自己的同事不斷玩單打獨鬥的遊戲,這種情況往往發生在市場營銷和其他職能部門,實際上往往發生在企業的高層。

  • But it's actually very, it's actually slightly an unnatural state. So you're going to be very careful working in a marketing department or being a person who works in marketing to continually remind yourself that you're an outlier.

    但實際上,這是很不自然的狀態。是以,在營銷部門工作或從事營銷工作的人要非常小心,不斷提醒自己,你是一個離群者。

  • One of my favorite stories from your book, Alchemy, was the story of the Walkman and how the engineers, basically they had the technology to add recording to the Walkman and they're just like, hey, of course we need to add this feature. We can do it.

    在你的書《鍊金術》中,我最喜歡的一個故事是關於隨身聽的,工程師們基本上掌握了為隨身聽增加錄音功能的技術,他們就想,嘿,我們當然需要增加這個功能。我們能做到

  • It would have cost 50 cents because apparently they built the first Walkman on the, I think it was called the Sony Talkman, which was a dictating machine, which had both a speaker and it had a microphone.

    它的成本是 50 美分,因為很顯然,他們在索尼 Talkman 上製造了第一臺隨身聽,我想它被稱為索尼 Talkman,這是一臺聽寫機,既有揚聲器,又有麥克風。

  • And it would have cost like 50 cents a dollar per unit of the Walkman to add recording function. And of course, later on, they did add that much later on when people were familiar with the concept.

    如果要增加錄音功能,每臺隨身聽的成本大概在 50 美分到 1 美元之間。當然,後來當人們熟悉了這個概念後,他們確實增加了錄音功能。

  • But I think it was Marita, I think it was Accio, Marita, Sonny, who was the kind of instigator of the Walkman project. And he was the single driver who said no.

    但我認為是瑪麗塔,我認為是阿奇奧、瑪麗塔和桑尼,是隨身聽項目的發起人。他是唯一一個拒絕的人

  • And they all got very upset about this because they said, look, it costs nothing and it doubles the functionality of the device. And Marita said, you don't want to double the functionality of the device. You want the device to have one function which it performs very well.

    他們對此都非常不滿,因為他們說,聽著,這不花錢,還能讓設備的功能翻倍。瑪麗塔說,你不想讓設備的功能翻倍。你希望設備只有一個功能,而且能很好地完成。

  • What Don Norman will call an affordance. OK. You don't want any ambiguity about what this thing's for. What this thing's for is for listening to high quality music while you're on a flight or on a train journey.

    唐-諾曼稱之為 "承受力"。好的這東西的用途可不能含糊不清這東西的用途就是讓你在飛行或火車旅途中聆聽高品質的音樂。

  • And it's for that. It's a personal entertainment device and nothing else. Once people start getting used to the dictaphone, does it have a corporate function?

    就是為了這個。它只是個人娛樂設備,沒有其他用途。一旦人們開始習慣使用口述錄音機,它是否還有企業功能?

  • You know, should I use it to record concerts, et cetera? Once it's got more than one function, people don't know where to start. And so I thought that was an absolutely inspired thing, which is actually, you know, in many cases, less is more.

    你知道,我應該用它來錄製音樂會嗎?一旦它有了多種功能,人們就不知從何下手了。是以,我認為這絕對是一件很有啟發的事情,實際上,你知道,在很多情況下,少即是多。

  • You know, in other words, focus attention on one thing. The one thing that it does, it's really good at that thing. You don't have to worry about anything else. If you want to do that thing, then this is the thing for you.

    換句話說,就是把注意力集中在一件事上。只做一件事,那就是它的強項。你不必擔心其他任何事情。如果你想做那件事,那麼它就是你的最佳選擇。

  • And if you don't want to do that thing, then don't buy it. Very simple binary decision. The second you introduce kind of complexity into the thing, logically, greater functionality should mean greater utility, which should mean greater value.

    如果你不想做那件事,那就別買。非常簡單的二元決定。從邏輯上講,功能越強,就意味著實用性越強,也就意味著價值越高。

  • But sometimes, you know, as with the McDonald's menu, OK, that was an absolutely beautiful case where they realized that, OK, it's partly about speed.

    但有時,你知道,就像麥當勞的菜單,OK,那是一個絕對漂亮的案例,他們意識到,OK,這部分是關於速度的。

  • It's partly about supply chain, but it's also about choice production. You know, do you want a Big Mac? Don't you want a Big Mac? Whereas the American diner, which was the kind of preceding thing before the McDonald's brothers came and sort of shook it all up with, I suppose, this kind of Detroit model of kind of production.

    這部分與供應鏈有關,但也與選擇性生產有關。你想吃巨無霸嗎?你不想吃巨無霸嗎?而在麥當勞兄弟出現之前,美國的小餐館是一種先行者,我想,這種底特律式的生產模式顛覆了一切。

  • The American diner was, you know, how do you want your eggs? You know, substitutions, you know, you know, over easy, sunny side up, poach, scramble, et cetera. The whole thing was about customization. And so this is what I mean. Sometimes customization is a great idea. Sometimes it's the opposite.

    美國餐廳的做法是,你想怎麼吃雞蛋?你知道的,替代品,你知道的,你知道的,全熟的,向陽的,水煮的,炒的,等等。整件事都是關於定製的。我就是這個意思有時候,定製是個好主意。有時卻恰恰相反。

  • And I think Tesla's quite clever in the choice architecture of Tesla's is just the right amount of choice. You don't want one color. OK, and you don't want one battery size. But equally, they haven't gone silly. OK, you know, they're kind of two interiors. You can choose from two sides of wheels, five colors, five basic colors and two premium ones.

    我認為特斯拉在選擇架構方面相當聰明,選擇恰到好處。你不需要一種顏色。好吧,你也不想要一種電池尺寸。但同樣,他們也沒有犯傻。好吧,你知道,它們有兩種內飾。你可以選擇兩邊的輪轂,五種顏色,五種基本色和兩種高級色。

  • So it's quite right. You know, that's kind of about manageable, you know, whereas I had a look at customizing the new electric Range Rover today and it's just. Well, it drives you insane because, you know, you suddenly realize you're going to be spending basically the price of a house by the time you've added all the stuff you really, really want. You can't actually justify buying the vehicle.

    所以這是很正確的。你知道,這還算在可控範圍內 而我今天看了新款路虎攬勝的定製版那會讓你發瘋的,因為你會突然意識到,當你把所有你想要的東西都加進去的時候,你要花的錢基本上就相當於一棟房子的價格了。你無法證明買車是對的

  • OK, so maybe a last question. We've covered a lot of stuff at this point, which makes me very happy. I asked people on Twitter what I should ask you when you were coming on the podcast. And the most common question came around branding for startups. So say your startup, you're trying to figure out how do we build a brand for what we're doing. Do you have any advice for early stage founders to help build their brand, strengthen their brand over time, something they could do early on?

    好吧,也許還有最後一個問題。在這一點上,我們已經談了很多,這讓我很高興。我在 Twitter 上問大家,如果你來播客,我應該問你什麼。最常見的問題是關於初創企業的品牌建設。比方說,你的初創公司正在想辦法如何為我們正在做的事情打造一個品牌。你對處於早期階段的創始人有什麼建議,可以幫助他們建立品牌,隨著時間的推移強化品牌?

  • Very, very simple. Be consistent, be distinctive and be famous. Now, we forget this, OK? Advertising often talks about brand in this incredibly nuanced way about differentiation and this and that and the other. You've got to be distinctive, OK? Undoubtedly. You've got to be consistent for obvious reasons, OK? And you've got to stick at it visually without dicking around too much.

    非常非常簡單。始終如一,與眾不同,聲名遠播。現在,我們忘了這一點,好嗎?廣告經常以這種令人難以置信的細微方式談論品牌,談論差異化、這個那個和其他。你必須與眾不同,知道嗎?毫無疑問。出於顯而易見的原因,你必須始終如一,知道嗎?而且你必須在視覺上保持一致,而不能太花哨。

  • But actually, the reason advertising agencies never say we're going to make you famous is because it sounds too obvious. OK, well, yeah, obviously. Let's not talk about fame. It is. It's about fame, OK? In that fame fundamentally changes the rules in completely nonlinear ways.

    但實際上,廣告公司之所以從來不說我們會讓你成名,是因為這聽起來太明顯了。好吧,是的,很明顯。我們還是別談成名了沒錯就是關於成名,好嗎?成名從根本上改變了規則 以完全非線性的方式

  • So, first of all, when you are not famous, you have to find all your customers. Suddenly, you reach this magical sort of escape velocity of fame where people start coming to you and they start saying, have you thought of using this for this? Or actually, you didn't think of this as an application for your product, but I've actually got this. You know, I actually use it for this.

    是以,首先,當你還不出名時,你必須找到你的所有客戶。突然間,你達到了這種神奇的成名逃逸速度,人們開始來找你,他們開始說,你有沒有想過用這個來做這個?或者說,實際上,你並沒有想到這是你產品的一個應用,但我實際上已經有了這個。你知道,我實際上用它來做這個。

  • OK, and then then you reach sort of there are kind of levels of fame and they compound over time. It's not linear. It's not attributable. You can't really say, you know, I joke about this. OK, there are people who can attribute their fame to one single event. Monica Lewinsky, perhaps.

    好的,然後你會達到某種程度的名氣,隨著時間的推移,名氣會不斷增加。這不是線性的。它不是可歸因的。你不能真的說,你知道,我拿這個開玩笑。好吧,有些人可以把他們的名氣歸功於一個單一的事件。莫妮卡・萊溫斯基,也許。

  • OK, or serial killers. All right. OK. If I hadn't killed all those people, no one would have heard. OK. OK. There are people for whom fame is like attributable. But for most most people, it's a whole what you might call amalgam of different activities, you know, going back years.

    或者連環殺手好吧好吧如果我沒殺那些人 沒人會知道的好吧 好吧 OK.好吧有些人的名聲就像歸因一樣但對大多數人來說,這是一個整體 你可能會打電話給不同活動的混合物, 你知道,要追溯到多年前。

  • And actually, in many cases, we ask consumers, how did you hear about this? They don't actually know. They'll always put TV or something or online. But actually, they don't know how they heard about it. They just kind of heard about it. And we know that people's brains react completely differently in terms of their level of comfort with things they've heard of before versus things that are completely new.

    實際上,在很多情況下,我們會問消費者,你是怎麼聽說這件事的?他們其實並不知道。他們總是會說是電視或網上。但實際上,他們並不知道自己是怎麼聽說的。他們只是聽說過。我們知道,人們的大腦對以前聽說過的事物和全新事物的適應程度完全不同。

  • It's almost similar to the kind of heuristic of, you know, is everybody else eating this? Have I eaten it before? And have I heard of people eating this? OK, that's, you know, it's part of that same package of, you know, right in the motherboard of human psychology.

    這幾乎類似於一種啟發式,你知道,其他人都吃這個嗎?我以前吃過嗎?我聽說過別人吃這個嗎?好吧,這就是,你知道的,這也是人類心理主板上的那套東西的一部分。

  • So famous is completely it basically changes the rules for everything. You know, when your chief executive brings somebody up, they probably call back. If you're a famous company, if he's heard of you or she's heard of you, she'll call back.

    如此有名,完全改變了一切規則。你知道,當你的首席執行官提起某人時,他們可能會回電。如果你是一家有名的公司,如果他聽說過你,或者她聽說過你,她就會回電話。

  • Right. If they haven't heard of you, they probably won't call back. What's that worth? It's impossible. It's impossible to quantify the value of fame. People come and work for you for less money. People actually apply to you without you having to find them. People stay longer. Customers come to you and give you the benefit of the doubt. You're allowed to cock up once.

    對如果他們沒聽說過你 他們可能就不會再打過來了那值多少錢?這不可能名氣的價值無法量化人們為了更少的錢來為你工作。人們會主動向你求職,而不需要你去找他們。人們停留的時間更長。客戶來找你,給你好處。你被允許搞砸一次。

  • OK, if you're famous. Right. People, you know, people give you if you've got a great brand. The best definition of a brand is from the guy who's called Eric Johnson, I think, who wrote the book Blindsight. And he's also written a book called Brands That Mean Business. It's a great book. It deserves to be much more famous, actually.

    好吧,如果你很有名的話。對如果你有一個偉大的品牌,人們就會給你。品牌的最佳定義來自一個叫埃裡克-約翰遜的人,我想,他寫了《盲目》一書。他還寫了一本書,叫《品牌意味著生意》。這是一本偉大的書。事實上,這本書應該更加出名。

  • And his there's a sentence in that book which says having a great brand means you get to play the game of capitalism on easy mode. And I genuinely can't think of a better definition than that. Now, the point about playing on easy mode is. Can you quantify the value of that? Well, no, because you don't know what your score would have been if you were playing on hard mode or psycho mode.

    書中有一句話是這樣說的:擁有一個偉大的品牌,意味著你可以用簡單模式玩資本主義遊戲。我真的想不出比這更好的定義了。現在,關於 "輕鬆模式 "遊戲的問題是:你能量化它的價值嗎?你能量化它的價值嗎?不能,因為你不知道如果你玩的是 "困難模式 "或 "變態模式",你的分數會是多少。

  • I'm not a gamer, but, you know, you know what I mean. OK. And can you also say which of your various activities contributed to that the building of that great brand? Well, no, you can't, because it's actually not even it's not even an amalgam of things. It's actually a kind of concatenation. It's, you know, you know, there are a whole set of elements here which are catalytic. They're not linear.

    我不是一個遊戲玩家,但是,你知道,你知道我的意思。好吧。你還能說說你的哪些活動對建立這個偉大的品牌做出了貢獻嗎?嗯,不,你不能說,因為它實際上並不是一個綜合體。它實際上是一種串聯。你知道,這裡有一整套具有催化作用的元素。它們不是線性的。

  • And that's the other thing, which is that because it's not linear, attempts to evaluate advertising on short term transactional metrics will always grotesquely undervalue the contribution of that activity to your ultimate business success.

    還有一點就是,由於廣告活動不是線性的,是以試圖用短期交易指標來評估廣告活動總是會嚴重低估廣告活動對最終業務成功的貢獻。

  • It's a bit like when I first got a pension for the first few years. Brand building is a bit like a pension. Right. The first few years I had a pension. Oh, God, I'm paying this guy a few hundred quid a month. And look, I mean, you know, half it's gone in commission and goes a lot of work. And I'd rather have the money to have an Indian meal. You know, I don't know why I'm doing this. Oh, look, it's hardly gone up at all. And what a bore. What a waste of time. I thought that for about three years. I'm 58 now. I got a pension. I go, where did all this money come from?

    這有點像我剛拿到養老金的頭幾年。品牌建設有點像養老金。對頭幾年我有終身俸哦,天哪,我每個月給這傢伙幾百英鎊。聽著,我是說,你知道,有一半是佣金,要花很多功夫。我寧願有錢去吃印度餐我不知道為什麼要這麼做哦,你看,它幾乎沒有上漲。真無聊真是浪費時間我這樣想了三年我已經58歲了我有終身俸我想,這些錢都是從哪兒來的?

  • I don't remember paying this. It really is like that. It's a compounding effect. And everybody effectively, because we have finance and ROI and all those things, everybody's using addition, multiplication, subtraction and division.

    我不記得付過這個錢。真的是這樣這是一種複利效應。每個人都在有效地使用加法、乘法、減法和除法,因為我們有財務和投資回報率以及所有這些東西。

  • To try and quantify the value of an activity, which doesn't which which actually is about power laws. It's not about that kind of linear bullshit. OK, it's really about kind of power laws, non linearities and all this kind of stuff. And so, you know, we're being judged by the wrong kind of maths.

    試圖量化一項活動的價值,而實際上這與冪律無關。不是那種線性的廢話。好吧,它其實是關於冪律、非線性和所有這些東西的。所以,你知道,我們被錯誤的數學所評判。

  • We're being evaluated by the wrong kind of maths. And also we're being evaluated over the wrong time frame. And consequently, my argument would be that at a very rough estimate, an awful lot of marketing activity is in reality four times as valuable for.

    我們正在接受錯誤的數學評估。同時,我們也在用錯誤的時間框架進行評估。是以,我的觀點是,粗略估算一下,很多營銷活動的實際價值是它們的四倍。

  • OK, I'm plucking that number out of the air, but four seems about you, right? It's probably four times as valuable as people think it is when they measure its short term contribution. Could be more, of course.

    好吧,這個數字是我憑空捏造的,但 "四 "似乎和你差不多,對吧?當人們衡量其短期貢獻時,它的價值可能是人們想象的四倍。當然,也可能更多。

  • I love that because over time it will build in the compounds. It's like a drip.

    我喜歡這樣做,因為隨著時間的推移,它將在化合物中形成。就像滴水一樣。

  • The I love the three points you made about how to build a great brand consistency, distinctiveness. What was the third? It was famous.

    我喜歡你提出的關於如何建立一個偉大品牌的一致性和獨特性的三點意見。第三點是什麼?很有名。

  • Oh, yeah. I mean, I mean, consistency, distinctiveness. Probably clarity, clarity and just be famous. Yeah. Yeah. Some sort of some sort of clarity of promise, I think. Amazing. I think I think a good brand is a sort of promise, but also the extent to which it contributes to trust.

    哦,是的我的意思是,我的意思是,一致性、獨特性。可能是清晰度,清晰度,還有就是出名。對 - 對 - Yeah.Yeah.某種某種 清晰的承諾,我想。好極了我認為一個好的品牌不僅要有承諾,還要有信任度。

  • OK, which is that if you met a celebrity on the street, right. OK, I don't mean a serial killer celebrity. I mean, a famous actor. OK. One thing you wouldn't think about is are they going to steal my wallet? Are they going to mug me? Are they going to do anything with that?

    好吧,如果你在街上遇到一個名人,對吧。好吧,我不是說連環殺手之類的名人我的意思是,一個有名的演員。好吧你不會想到的一件事是 他們會偷我的錢包嗎?他們會搶劫我嗎?他們會用那個做什麼嗎?

  • They may have lots, lots of vices, but generally people who have a lot of reputational skin in the game, who've invested a lot in building up a reputation over time are going to be much more cautious about disappointing their customers or risking negative feedback than someone nobody's ever heard of.

    他們可能有很多很多的惡習,但一般來說,那些在遊戲中聲譽卓著的人,那些在長期積累聲譽方面投入了大量資金的人,在讓客戶失望或冒負面反饋的風險方面,要比那些從未聽說過的人謹慎得多。

  • Right. I mean, and let's be honest, OK, it's even I think it's even more extreme in the United States than it is in the UK. The relationship people have with celebrities is kind of pervy and weird. You know, they you know, they imbue these people with superpowers. They're actors, right?

    是啊老實說,我覺得美國比英國更極端人們和名人的關係有點變態和怪異你知道,他們賦予這些人超能力他們是演員,對吧?

  • They actually fly through the air, but somehow people treat them with this kind of reverence because they're just famous. And the point is, it's kind of easy mode. You know, if you are actually pretty famous, you are playing that game on easy mode because so many things which require massive reassurance, due diligence, checking, you take it to the board.

    它們實際上是在空中飛行,但不知何故,人們卻對它們充滿敬畏,因為它們只是很有名。關鍵是,這是一種簡單模式。要知道,如果你真的很有名,你就會在簡單模式下玩遊戲,因為很多事情都需要大量的保證、盡職調查和檢查,你把它拿到董事會上就可以了。

  • Three people on the board have never heard of the companies that they want you to go back and check with. And then you walk in and you know, and it's kind of you're famous. The rules are different. And when I say there are also these inflection points like escape velocity, I always say about Coke.

    董事會里有三個人從來沒聽說過他們要你回去調查的公司。然後你走進去,你就知道,你出名了。規則是不同的。當我說還有像逃逸速度這樣的拐點時,我總是說可口可樂。

  • But Coke has reached a magical level of fame where it is your expectation that any shop or bar or cafe or Michelin starred restaurant will stock it. And I can ask for this anywhere. OK. And if they haven't got it, it's their fault, not mine. That's that's really kind of mega fame.

    但可口可樂的名氣已經達到了一個神奇的境界,那就是任何商店、酒吧、咖啡館或米其林星級餐廳都會備有可口可樂。我在任何地方都能要到可樂。好的如果他們沒有,那是他們的錯,不是我的錯。這才是真正的大名鼎鼎。

  • But equally in B2B, there's an inflection point in B2B marketing, which is that if no one ever got fired for buying IBM, we know the famous phrase. If you appoint Pricewaterhouse or EY or whatever to your audit and something goes wrong, everybody blames them.

    但同樣在 B2B 領域,B2B 營銷也有一個拐點,那就是如果沒有人因為購買 IBM 而被解僱,我們都知道這句名言。如果你委託普華永道或安永或其他公司進行審計,出了問題,所有人都會指責他們。

  • If you appoint someone nobody's ever heard of to be your auditor and something goes wrong, everybody blames you for not appointing Pricewaterhouse or EY. You know, it's rather like one of the reasons I fly with, you know, I wouldn't go on a business trip with Ryanair, even though they're actually pretty good. They're very punctual. Right.

    如果你任命了一個誰都沒聽說過的人做審計師,結果出了問題,大家都會怪你沒有任命普華永道或安永。你知道,這就好比我乘坐飛機的原因之一,你知道,我不會乘坐瑞安航空出差,儘管他們實際上很不錯。他們很準時。他們很準時。

  • Is if the flight gets cancelled or delayed and I ring the client and say, I'm terribly sorry, the BA flight's been delayed. OK, they go, oh, well, never mind. You did your best. And if I ring up and say the Ryanair flight's been delayed. OK, it's not quite the same, is it? Right. I hadn't necessarily tried. I've kind of skimped on that.

    如果班機取消或延誤,我打電話給客戶說,非常抱歉,BA 班機延誤了。好吧,他們會說,哦,沒關係。你已經盡力了。如果我打電話給客戶,說瑞安航空的班機延誤了。那就不一樣了,對吧?對我不一定盡力了我有點吝嗇了

  • You see what I mean? And so, you know, various things. It's not just what things are. It's what they mean. And we use brands as kind of extended phenotypes to express ourselves in all kinds of ways. So this is the other thing with brands. It's not just a simple consumer. It's not just a simple business consumer relationship.

    你明白我的意思嗎?所以,你知道,各種各樣的事情。不只是東西是什麼而是它們意味著什麼。我們將品牌作為一種擴展的表型 以各種方式表達我們自己這就是品牌的另一個特點。它不僅僅是一個簡單的消費者。這不僅僅是簡單的商業消費者關係。

  • There are all kinds of things. What does the brand that you say about me? It's do the people who I who know me know what this brand means? It's no good being a luxury car that nobody, the only rich people have heard of, because in order to convey prestige, it's necessary for you to know that other people know that BMW is a prestigious car brand and so on and so forth.

    有各種各樣的事情。你的品牌說明了我什麼?瞭解我的人知道這個品牌意味著什麼嗎?如果你是一輛豪車,卻沒有人聽說過,只有有錢人聽說過,那是不行的,因為要傳遞聲望,你就必須讓別人知道寶馬是一個著名的汽車品牌,諸如此類。

  • So there are lots of things here, which are second order, third order, non-linear compounding factors. OK, you know, we just have to remember this is a different kind of maths. And yet we're being judged on a kind of, you know, X minus Y equals Z maths. Doesn't make any sense.

    是以,這裡有很多二階、三階、非線性複合因子。好吧,你知道,我們必須記住這是一種不同的數學。然而,我們卻被一種,你知道,X 減 Y 等於 Z 的數學方法所評判。這沒有任何意義。

  • Maybe as a final question, is there anything you want to leave listeners with, folks that are building product, any lasting piece of nugget or advice?

    也許作為最後一個問題,對於正在開發產品的聽眾來說,你有什麼想說的,或者有什麼持久的建議嗎?

  • That allows them to do something by using some clever application of tech. Try and use those three things in parallel, because I think what most businesses do is they try and do things in series. And businesses borrow an awful lot from the kind of Fordist-Taylorist production line mentality of the process. OK, and the process, we have to pretend that the process is linear.

    這樣,他們就可以通過巧妙地應用技術來做一些事情。嘗試並行使用這三樣東西,因為我認為大多數企業的做法是嘗試串聯起來做事情。企業從福特主義-泰勒主義的生產線思維中借鏡了大量的流程。好吧,流程,我們必須假裝流程是線性的。

  • The process of any kind of innovation or development is not linear. There are loads of products which, by the way, have completely failed at first iteration. And then someone sold them in a different way. And they then turn out to be completely successful. I mean, the pivot is an example of that.

    任何一種創新或發展的過程都不是線性的。順便說一句,有很多產品在第一次迭代時完全失敗了。然後,有人以另一種方式出售它們。然後它們就完全成功了。我的意思是,"支點 "就是一個例子。

  • Famously, Wrigley started off selling soap powder in Chicago. Then he started giving away baking powder free to sell the soap powder and then realized he'd start making baking powder and selling that. And he gave away chewing gum that went on the baking powder as a gift. And then people liked the chewing gum a lot more than they liked the baking powder. So as a result, Wrigley became a chewing gum company.

    著名的箭牌公司最初在芝加哥銷售肥皂粉。後來,他開始免費贈送發酵粉來銷售肥皂粉,然後意識到他要開始製作發酵粉並銷售。他還把塗在發酵粉上的口香糖作為禮物贈送。後來,人們喜歡口香糖的程度遠遠超過了喜歡發酵粉。於是,箭牌就成了一家口香糖公司。

  • So but we're always trying to make this thing linear because when we tell stories backwards, we post rationalize and we reverse engineer and we reverse engineer our actions to make it all seem perfectly linear and logical as a kind of sense check. The real process is never like that.

    所以,我們總是試圖讓這件事線性化,因為當我們倒著講故事時,我們會合理化,我們會逆向工程,我們會逆向工程我們的行為,讓這一切看起來完全線性和合乎邏輯,作為一種感官檢查。真實的過程從來不是這樣的。

  • And I think you should have marketing. I think marketing and technology are two sides of the marketing and innovation are two sides of the same coin. You either, as I often say, you can either work out what people want to find out a clever way to make it or you can work out what you can make and find a clever way to make people want it.

    我認為你應該有市場營銷。我認為營銷和技術是一個硬幣的兩面,營銷和創新是一個硬幣的兩面。正如我常說的,你可以找出人們想要的東西,然後找到一種巧妙的方法來製造它,或者你可以找出你能製造的東西,然後找到一種巧妙的方法來讓人們想要它。

  • And actually the greatest thing is manage to do both. Simple as that. So I don't do it one than the other. Don't leave marketing to the last minute. But equally, well, you know, work in parallel as far as you can.

    實際上,最偉大的事情就是設法做到這兩點。就這麼簡單。所以,我不會厚此薄彼。不要把營銷工作留到最後一刻。但同樣,好吧,你知道的,儘可能並行工作。

  • Where can people find your book and Nudgestock? Point them real quick. Nudgestock.com. The book's called Alchemy and it's got a variety of subtitles depending on which country you're in. But if you look for Alchemy by Rory Sutherland, the audio book is probably the best thing to buy because I actually read it myself and I kind of riffed a bit from that, but also available on Kindle and from all good bookshops and quite a few rotten ones.

    人們在哪裡可以找到你的書和 Nudgestock?快告訴他們Nudgestock.com。這本書叫《鍊金術》,根據你所在的國家,它有多種字幕。但如果你想找羅裡-薩瑟蘭寫的《鍊金術》,有聲書可能是最好的選擇,因為實際上我自己也讀過這本書,而且我還從書中摘錄了一些內容,但也可以在Kindle上買到,所有好的書店和不少爛書店都有售。

  • And there's also a book I've co-written called Transport for Humans, co-written with Pete Dyson. If you're in the transportation industry, I'd recommend that one. Amazing. Rory, thank you so much for being here. Thank you for that. Always enjoy.

    此外,我還與皮特-戴森(Pete Dyson)合作撰寫了一本書,名為《人類運輸》(Transport for Humans)。如果你從事運輸行業,我會向你推薦這本書。太棒了羅裡,非常感謝你能來這裡。謝謝。一直很喜歡

  • See you in the next episode.

    下集再見。

Steve Jobs was not a technologist, he was a pitch man, he was a brilliant salesman, he was a fantastic marketer.

喬布斯不是一個技術專家,他是一個推銷員,他是一個出色的銷售員,他是一個出色的營銷員。

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