They've put representatives from the two competing cities on stage for their announcement.

他們讓兩個競爭城市的代表上臺等待宣佈結果。

With the unanimous decision we took...

我們一致決定...

But everyone here already knows who won.

但這裡的每個人都已經知道誰贏了。

Please raise your hand.

請舉手。

Every four years, more than 5 million people attend the Olympics, and over 3 billion watch it on TV.

每四年有 500 多萬人參加奧運會，30 多億人通過電視觀看奧運會。

It's a once-in-a-generation opportunity for one city to show up.

對於一個城市來說，這是千載難逢的亮相機會。

And the competition has typically been fierce.

競爭通常都很激烈。

12 cities applied to host the 2004 Games before the IOC picked Athens, Greece.

在國際奧委會選定希臘雅典之前，有 12 個城市申請主辦 2004 年奧運會。

10 applied for 2008, won by Beijing, China.

2008 年有 10 個申請，中國北京勝出。

But since then, interest has been waning.

但從那時起，人們對它的興趣逐漸減弱。

9 cities applied for 2012, then 7, then 5.

2012 年有 9 個城市提出申請，之後是 7 個，再之後是 5 個。

And for 2024, only two were left when it was time for a vote.

至於 2024 年，投票時只剩下兩個。

So the IOC did something it's never done before.

所以，國際奧委會做了一件它從未做過的事。

Paris, 24.

巴黎舉辦 2024 年奧運。

Los Angeles, 28.

洛杉磯舉辦 2028 年奧運。

The IOC was so concerned that nobody would bid to host the Games in 2028 that it simultaneously awarded the Games 2024 to Paris and 2028 to Los Angeles.

國際奧委會擔心沒有人會申辦 2028 年奧運，所以同時將 2024 年奧運和 2028 年奧運分別授予巴黎和洛杉磯。

There used to be strong demand to host, now there isn't.

奧運曾經有強烈的主辦需求，現在沒有了。

The Olympics are the most prestigious sports event in the world.

奧運是世界上最負盛名的體育賽事。

Why doesn't anyone want to host it anymore?

為什麼沒有人願意主辦了？

So the Olympics have actually had this problem before.

奧運其實以前也遇到過這個問題。

They originally came up with this idea of rotating the Games around to different cities back in 1896 because they had to.

早在 1896 年，他們就提出了輪流在不同城市舉辦奧運會的想法，因為他們不得不這樣做。

We didn't have international jet travel and we didn't have international telecommunications.

我們沒有國際飛機旅行，也沒有國際電信。

Andrew Zimbalist wrote a book about the economics of hosting sports mega-events like the Olympics.

Andrew Zimbalist 寫了一本關於舉辦奧運等大型體育賽事的經濟學著作。

So it was necessary in order to spread the Games internationally and get the whole world to participate and enjoy them.

將運動會推廣到國際上是必要的，讓全世界都來參與和享受運動會。

As the Games grew, the IOC kept this tradition, eventually developing a competition where cities would submit bids and it would vote on a winner.

隨著奧運的發展，國際奧委會保留了這一傳統，最終形成了由各城市提交申辦書、國際奧委會投票選出優勝者的競賽模式。

But when it opened bidding for the 1984 Games, not a single city wanted to host because the last few hadn't gone very well.

但是，當 1984 年奧運開始招標時，沒有一個城市願意主辦，因為前幾屆奧運會都不太順利。

Local political protests had turned violent during the 1968 Games in Mexico City.

1968 年墨西哥城奧運期間，當地的政治抗議演變成了暴力事件。

And terrorists killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Games.

在 1972 年慕尼黑奧運上，恐怖分子殺害了 11 名以色列運動員。

Invade the Olympic Village, taking nine Israeli athletes hostage and killing two others in their room.

入侵奧運村，劫持九名以色列運動員為人質，並在他們的房間裡殺死另外兩人。

Both incidents showed cities that hosting could be politically risky, or even deadly.

這兩起事件都向城市表明，主辦會議可能具有政治風險，甚至是致命的。

When construction problems and corruption led Montreal to spend more than 13 times their budget, they began to view it as financially risky too.

當建設問題和腐敗導致蒙特婁的花費超過預算的 13 倍時，他們也開始認為這在財務上是有風險的。

So in the late '70s, the IOC was barreling towards disaster until one city offered to save them under one condition.

所以在 1970 年代末，國際奧委會正朝著災難的方向狂奔，直到一個城市提出要拯救他們，但有一個條件。

Los Angeles did not want to spend a lot of money.

洛杉磯不想花很多錢。

To do that, it offered to use venues it already had instead of build new ones.

為此，它提出使用已有的場館，而不是建造新的場館。

The LA Coliseum, where the USC football team played.

洛杉磯體育館，南加州大學橄欖球隊曾在此比賽。

The Forum, where the Lakers played.

論壇體育館，湖人隊曾在此比賽。

UCLA's gymnasium and tennis center.

加州大學洛杉磯分校的體育館和網球中心。

And the athletes could just stay in the college dorm rooms.

運動員就可以住在大學宿舍裡。

Since the IOC didn't have a choice, it said yes.

國際奧委會別無選擇，只好答應了。

And was soon glad it did.

很快，他們就很慶幸答應了。

The '84 LA Games were a success in almost every way.

1984 年洛杉磯奧運幾乎在所有方面都取得了成功。

But especially financially.

但在經濟上尤其如此。

It only cost around $1 billion in 2015 dollars.

按 2015 年美元計算，僅花費約 10 億美元。

And LA even made a profit.

洛杉磯甚至還盈利了。

This should have become the model for future Olympic host cities, but instead, it sparked the problem that is plaguing the Olympics today.

體育本應成為未來奧運主辦城市的典範，但是，它卻引發了今天困擾奧運的問題。

It's interesting how many of these sports and politics stories really boil down to economics.

有趣的是，很多體育和政治故事其實都可以歸結為經濟問題。

If you recall, the Premier League story is a story about a warped economic system.

如果你還記得，英超聯賽的故事是一個關於扭曲的經濟體系的故事。

The NFL is so successful because it created a new economic model for sports leagues.

NFL 之所以如此成功，是因為它為體育聯盟創造了一種新的經濟模式。

If you haven't seen those videos yet, give them a watch.

如果你還沒看過那些影片，不妨看一看。

If you haven't subscribed to Search Party, now's your chance.

如果你還沒有訂閱 Search Party，現在機會來了。

We publish every two weeks this summer, so I've been working from all over the place.

今年夏天，我們每兩週發布一部影片，所以我一直在各地工作。

I've been writing scripts on trains.

我一直在火車上寫劇本。

I've been animating on airplanes.

我一直在飛機上做動畫。

I'm headed out this afternoon on a really exciting reporting trip.

我今天下午要去做一次非常令人興奮的報導。

But I'm going to be in a hotel the whole time.

但我會一直住在酒店裡。

That's why I'm really excited to work with Surfshark.

所以我非常高興能與 Surfshark 合作。

Surfshark's a VPN that's going to keep me safe on all those public Wi-Fis.

Surfshark 是一款 VPN，能保證我在公共 Wi-Fi 上的安全。

Surfshark is an app and browser that encrypts my activity online while blocking ads and malware.

Surfshark 是一款應用程序和瀏覽器，可以加密我的在線活動，同時阻止廣告和惡意軟體。

Surfshark also allows me to virtually place myself anywhere in the world in order to unblock content that I couldn't access otherwise.

Surfshark 還允許我將自己虛擬放置在世界的任何地方，以解除對我無法訪問的內容的屏蔽。

That means Surfshark lets Search Party cover stories in almost any country on earth.

這意味著，Surfshark 可以讓 Search Party 在全球幾乎任何國家進行報導。

So here's the deal.

事情是這樣的。

Use the coupon code searchparty at surfshark.deals/searchparty and get four months extra.

在 surfshark.deals 網站上使用優惠券代碼 searchparty/searchparty，即可額外獲得四個月的優惠。

There's also no risk.

也沒有風險。

They have a 30-day money-back guarantee.

他們提供 30 天退款保證。

Again, Surfshark is how I keep myself safe online.

同樣，Surfshark 也是我保護自己上網安全的工具。

It's the best way for you to do the same.

這對你來說也是最好的方法。

It's also the best way to support Search Party.

這也是支持 Search Party 的最佳方式。

So thanks again to Surfshark for supporting our work.

再次感謝 Surfshark 對我們工作的支持。

Now I'll take you back to the episode.

現在，我帶你回到影片。

L.A. did such a good job hosting the 1984 Olympics that it re-inspired cities to want to host again.

1984 年，洛杉磯成功舉辦了奧運，再次激發了各城市舉辦奧運的熱情。

For the 1992 games, six cities submitted bids, then six again for '96, eight for 2000, then a whopping 11 for 2004.

1992 年的運動會有 6 個城市投標，1996 年又有 6 個城市投標，2000 年有 8 個城市投標，2004 年有 11 個城市投標。

As more cities competed, the IOC regained leverage over them again.

隨著越來越多的城市參與競爭，國際奧委會又重新獲得了對這些城市的控制權。

But instead of sticking to the L.A. model, it began demanding more.

但它並沒有固守洛杉磯模式，而是開始提出更高的要求。

Between 1992 and 2020, the IOC added dozens of new sports to the games.

從 1992 年到 2020 年，國際奧委會為奧運增加了數十個新項目。

This required more venues and housing for more athletes, which host cities were primarily responsible for paying for.

這就需要為更多的運動員提供更多的場館和住宿，而這些費用主要由主辦城市負責支付。

As the competition intensified, cities felt increasing pressure to make their bids more attractive.

隨著競爭的加劇，各城市感到了越來越大的壓力，必須使自己的投標更具吸引力。

The most effective way to do that was to build new venues.

最有效的方法就是建設新的場館。

Sydney built 15 new venues, plus housing for 10,000 athletes.

雪梨新建了 15 個場館，並為一萬名運動員提供了住宿。

Athens built 22 new venues and Beijing built 12.

雅典新建了 22 個場館，北京新建了 12 個場館。

All of this construction made hosting the games really, really expensive.

所有這些建設都使得舉辦比賽的費用非常非常昂貴。

This chart shows how the cost of the games skyrocketed over the last 30 years, reaching between $10 and $25 billion in the last decade.

這張圖表顯示了過去 30 年間奧運費用的飛速增長，在過去十年間達到了 100 億至 250 億美元之間。

I want to add one big caveat to this chart, though.

不過，我想給這張圖表補充一個重要的注意事項。

It only includes sports-related costs to the games.

它只包括與奧運有關的費用。

It doesn't include things like new public transportation or development projects that most all these cities spent money on for the Olympics.

這還不包括新的公共交通或開發項目，而這些城市大多都為奧運花錢。

If we include some of those costs, these bars are actually way higher.

如果我們把其中的一些費用計算在內，這些槓槓實際上要高得多。

So, for example, some estimate that Beijing spent more like $45 billion for their 2008 summer games.

例如，有人估計北京為 2008 年夏季奧運會花費了 450 億美元。

Russia spent more like $51 billion in 2014.

2014 年，俄羅斯花費了 510 億美元。

And Tokyo's bill is more like $35 billion.

而東京花了約 350 億美元。

No matter what number you use, though, all of these cities went way over their initial budget, which the bidding process incentivizes them to keep artificially low.

不過，無論你使用哪個數字，所有這些城市的預算都遠遠超出了最初的預算，而競標過程促使他們人為地壓低預算。

What they have to do is make initial statements about the intentions and the plans that are very reduced.

他們所要做的，就是對意圖和計劃進行初步陳述，而這些陳述的內容則非常少。

Once the politicians say, "Yeah, OK, we'll go along with this," then they start adding the bells and whistles.

一旦政客們說：「好吧，我們同意」他們就會開始添油加醋。

And those can be very, very substantial.

而這些都是非常非常重要的。

The revenue cities generate from ticket sales, TV contracts and sponsorships only cover a fraction of these costs,

城市從門票銷售、電視轉播合約和贊助中獲得的收入僅能支付這些成本的一小部分，

meaning these governments and really their taxpayers are on the hook for the rest.

這意味著這些政府以及納稅人要承擔其餘的費用。

So it doesn't look like a good economic deal.

這看起來並不是一筆好的經濟交易。

But host cities have known for decades that they'll likely lose money in the short term.

但主辦城市幾十年來一直知道，他們很可能會在短期內虧損。

Instead, many have been told that hosting the Olympics is an investment that will pay off in the future.

相反，許多人被告知，舉辦奧運是一項投資，將來會有回報。

OK, so this is the IOC's web page where they list the benefits of hosting the games.

這是國際奧委會的網頁，其中列出了舉辦奧運的好處。

And they use this word "legacy" a lot.

他們經常使用「傳承」這個詞。

And by legacy, they mean things that will continue to benefit your city long after the Olympics are over.

所謂「傳承」指的是在奧運會結束後的很長一段時間內，仍能為你的城市帶來益處的東西。

Take sports facilities.

以體育設施為例。

Beijing justified spending around $460 million on this new 90,000 seat stadium by planning for a local pro soccer team to use it after the Olympics.

北京為這座可容納 90,000 人的新體育場花費了約 4.6 億美元，理由是計劃在奧運結束後讓當地的職業足球隊使用這座體育場。

London did the same when it built this stadium.

倫敦在建造這座體育場時也是這樣做的。

At first, seems like a good idea.

起初，這似乎是個好主意。

Other legacy projects are meant to benefit even more people.

其他傳承項目旨在讓更多人受益。

Russia spent $8.7 billion on a new rail and highway link into Sochi for its winter games.

俄羅斯斥資 87 億美元修建了一條新的鐵路和公路連接索契，以舉辦冬季奧運。

And Rio de Janeiro spent $4 billion on a new subway line connecting a beach community to its Olympic center.

里約熱內盧斥資 40 億美元修建了一條新的地鐵線，將一個海灘社區與奧林匹克中心連接起來。

The most commonly touted legacy benefit is that hosting the Olympics is a great way to kickstart your city's growth.

最常被吹噓的傳承效益是，舉辦奧運會是啟動城市發展的絕佳方式。

What historically came out of the public relations with regard to the Olympics was that this was the most wonderful thing that could ever happen to a city.

從歷史上看，奧林匹克運動會的公共關係是一個城市所能遇到的最美妙的事情。

It puts your city on the world map.

它能讓你的城市出現在世界地圖上。

So it will increase tourism.

這將增加旅遊業。

It will increase commerce.

它將增加商業。

It will increase foreign investment.

這將增加外國投資。

And that story turns out not to be true.

而事實證明，這些並不是真的。

Let's start with tourism.

先說旅遊業。

A 2004 study found that after experiencing a bump in tourism leading up to their respective games, Atlanta, Sydney and Seoul all sought fall afterwards.

2004 年的一項研究發現，亞特蘭大、雪梨和首爾在各自的比賽前經歷了旅遊業的繁榮，隨後都出現了下滑。

In his book, Andrew cites a 1996 study on three Olympic winter games that found that the long-term impact on tourism was between non-existent and very modest.

安德魯在書中引用了 1996 年對三屆冬季奧林匹克運動會進行的一項研究，該研究發現，冬季奧林匹克運動會對旅遊業的長期影響介於不存在和非常有限之間。

And a 2010 study that found little evidence of any benefit to tourism of hosting an Olympic games and considerable evidence of damage.

2010 年的一項研究發現，幾乎沒有證據表明舉辦奧運會會給旅遊業帶來任何好處，反而有相當多的證據表明會造成損害。

In other words, being on TV can backfire.

換句話說，上電視可能會適得其反。

If the weather is particularly too warm or if it's too cold, if there are security incidents, if there are bad stories about the traffic, some cities are able to maybe help their image, but other cities are hurting their image.

如果天氣特別暖和或特別寒冷，如果發生了安全事件，如果有關於交通的壞消息，有些城市也許能幫助他們樹立形象，但有些城市卻在傷害他們的形象。

Many legacy infrastructure investments haven't paid off either.

許多傳統的基礎設施投資也沒有得到回報。

Russia's rail project is now considered an epic failure.

俄羅斯的鐵路項目現在被認為是史詩般的失敗。

And Andrew argues that while Rio's subway line benefits some residents, what the city really needed was a line serving the lower-income neighborhoods inland.

安德魯認為，雖然里約的地鐵線讓一些居民受益，但這座城市真正需要的是一條為內陸低收入社區服務的地鐵線。

But that's not where the Olympics were.

但奧運並不在那裡。

The typical case was that the IOC comes along and they say, "We need these 30 venues and we want you to put them in a way so that transportation is facilitated and other conveniences are allowed."

最典型的情況是，國際奧委會來了，他們說：「我們需要這 30 個場館，我們希望你們把它們佈置得交通便利，並提供其他便利。」

And so what the city would have to do is contort itself in order to accommodate the IOC.

所以為了迎合國際奧委會的要求，這座城市必須進行自我調整。

Empty stadiums are a particularly visible sign of this mismatch.

空蕩蕩的體育場是這種不匹配的一個特別明顯的標誌。

That Beijing stadium had about 80,000 more seats than what the local soccer team could fill.

北京體育場的座位數比當地足球隊能坐滿的座位數多出約 8 萬個。

So it backed out.

於是，它退縮了。

Now the stadium sits mostly empty, costing the city some $10 million a year to maintain.

現在，體育場大部分空置，每年的維護費用約為 1000 萬美元。

This is what's called a white elephant.

這就是所謂的「大白象」，意指「華而不實」。

And there are now dozens of them across Olympic host cities.

現在，奧運主辦城市中已經有了幾十個這樣的地方。

These are venues left over from the Athens 2004 games.

這些都是 2004 年雅典奧運會留下的場館。

And ESPN found that 12 out of 27 venues in Rio de Janeiro had not held an event a year after it hosted the Olympics.

而 ESPN 發現，在里約熱內盧的 27 個場館中，有 12 個在舉辦奧運會一年後還沒有舉辦過賽事。

For many residents, white elephants are evidence that hosting the games is a waste of money.

對許多居民來說，「大白象」證明舉辦奧運是在浪費金錢。

The idea that had been out there forever and ever, this is wonderful news for the city, they get to do this.

一直以來，人們都有這樣的想法：這對城市來說是個好消息，他們可以這樣做了。

No, more often than not, it's going to be the opposite.

不，更多的時候，情況恰恰相反。

By 2015, city residents were ready to do something about it.

到 2015 年，城市居民已經準備好為此做些什麼。

The IOC had six cities bidding for the 2024 games until protests forced Boston and Hamburg to drop out.

國際奧委會曾有六個城市申辦 2024 年奧運會，直到抗議活動迫使波士頓和漢堡退出。

A new mayor in Rome fulfilled a promise to shut down its bid.

羅馬新任市長兌現了關閉競標的承諾。

Then more than 260,000 people signed a petition that led Budapest to drop out as well.

隨後，26 萬多人簽署了一份請願書，導致布達佩斯也退出了。

It left the IOC with just two bidders.

這樣，國際奧委會就只剩下了兩個競標者。

And, once again, little leverage.

而且，槓桿作用再次變得微乎其微。

The IOC has since passed reforms that it says reduce the cost of hosting largely by requiring hosts to use existing and temporary venues, like LA did back in 1984, and allowing them to partner with other cities.

此後，國際奧委會通過了改革措施，稱主要通過要求主辦方使用現有和臨時場館（如洛杉磯在 1984 年所做的那樣）以及允許主辦方與其他城市合作來降低主辦成本。

As of now, Paris doesn't look like it will blow its budget.

從目前來看，巴黎的預算似乎並不寬裕。

And LA's organizing committee is saying that the city can again pull off an on-budget Olympics.

洛杉磯奧組委表示，該市可以再次在預算範圍內舉辦一屆奧運會。

But the question is, if they do, could it spark another bidding war?

但問題是，如果他們這樣做了，會不會引發另一場競購戰呢？

I don't know if we'll go into a big cycle like we did after the '84 Games.

我不知道我們是否會像 1984 年奧運後那樣進入一個大週期。

I do think it's possible that there'll be a small turn.

我認為有可能會有一個小轉折。

It'll appear less undesirable than it has.

它看起來就不會那麼不可取了。

The IOC has also stopped taking bids and instead negotiates with cities privately.

國際奧委會也不再接受投標，而是私下與城市談判。

It picked Milan and Cortina, Italy over Stockholm for the 2026 Winter Games.

它選擇了意大利米蘭和科爾蒂納，而不是斯德哥爾摩作為 2026 年冬季奧運會的舉辦地。

And it gave Brisbane, Australia the 2032 Summer Games.

澳洲布里斯本也是以獲得了 2032 年夏季奧運會的舉辦權。

But some are arguing for a more permanent solution.

但有些人則主張採取更永久性的解決方案。

I think it's perfectly plausible to think about building the Olympic Shangri-La with its 35 or 40 venues for the Summer Games, a smaller number for the Winter Games, in one place.

我認為，在一個地方建造擁有 35 或 40 個夏季奧運會場館（冬季奧運會場館數量較少）的奧林匹克香格里拉大酒店是完全可行的。

Some believe Greece, the historical home of the Olympics, would make a good permanent host.

一些人認為，希臘作為奧運會的歷史故鄉，將是一個很好的永久主辦國。

Others have mentioned LA, since it has so many venues and has done so well in the past.

其他人提到了洛杉磯，因為它有如此多的場地，而且過去的成績也很好。

A permanent spot would eliminate white elephant projects, save cities from going into debt, and reduce the game's environmental footprint.

一個永久性地點將消除大而無當的項目，使城市免於負債，並減少遊戲對環境的影響。

But it could also reduce much of the excitement around each new Olympics.

但是，這也會大大降低每屆新奧運會的熱鬧程度。

It's not going to be easy to go to a model that makes environmental sense and economic sense.

要轉而採用一種既環保又經濟的模式並不容易。

But I do think it makes sense to talk about it and put it out there as some place that we should be heading.

但我確實認為，談論這個問題並將其作為我們應該前進的方向是有意義的。

Depending on how the next few Olympics go, it might be the only direction left.

根據接下來幾屆奧運的情況，這可能是唯一的方向了。

All right, thanks everyone so much for watching episode 15.

好了，非常感謝大家收看第 15 集。

That's also our one-year anniversary of Search Party.

這也是我們的 Search Party 一週年紀念日。

We have over 380,000 subscribers, we've published 15 videos, a ton of shorts.

我們有超過 38 萬訂閱者，發佈了 15 個影片和大量短影音。

If you haven't subscribed yet, please do.

如果你還沒有訂閱，請訂閱。

And I want to thank my whole team for the really hard work they've done over the last year.

我要感謝我的整個團隊，感謝他們在過去一年中所付出的艱辛努力。

It's been a lot of fun.

這很有趣。

Keep an eye out for our next few stories.

請關注我們接下來的報導。

We've got a really good pipeline coming.

我們有一個非常好的管道。

We've got one more Olympics story.

我們還有一集奧運故事。

And then we're back to geopolitics on a really exciting story that's got a really cool visual hook that I think you guys will like.

然後，我們將回到地緣政治，講述一個非常激動人心的故事，這個故事有一個非常酷的視覺亮點，我認為你們會喜歡的。

And then we're doing a story on MMA and then sports betting.

然後我們將報導綜合格鬥和體育博彩。

So keep an eye out for those.

請留意這些資訊。

Again, if you haven't subscribed to Search Party, please do.

如果你還沒有訂閱 Search Party，請訂閱。

And I'll see you in a couple of weeks.

幾周後見。

All right, see ya.

好吧，再見