He managed to turn his head at just the right angle so that a bullet shot in his direction grazed his ear rather than hitting him in the head.

他設法把頭轉過一個恰到好處的角度，這樣射向他的子彈就擦過了他的耳朵，而不是擊中他的頭部。

But what would happen if he didn't turn his head?

但如果他不轉頭，會發生什麼呢？

What if Donald Trump was assassinated that day?

如果那天唐納德-特朗普被暗殺了呢？

Who would replace him?

誰來接替他？

And could this lead to an American Civil War?

這會導致美國內戰嗎？

In this video, we're going to go through multiple scenarios on what would happen if Donald Trump got assassinated.

在這段視頻中，我們將對唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）被暗殺後會發生的情況進行多種假設。

The first one we'll look at is if he actually got shot on July 13.

我們首先要看的是，他是否真的在 7 月 13 日中槍。

Now, I need to be clear that at the time of this recording, the assassination attempt is still being investigated.

現在，我需要說明的是，在錄製這段錄音時，暗殺未遂事件仍在調查之中。

So some details may change, but what we do know is that the shooter came incredibly close.

是以，一些細節可能會發生變化，但我們知道的是，槍手離我們非常近。

Another thing that I want to make clear is that I don't wish ill will toward anyone.

另外，我想說明的是，我對任何人都沒有惡意。

If you're new to the channel, you should know that we often look at news stories and give our hypothetical take on it.

如果你是頻道的新成員，你應該知道我們經常會關注新聞報道，並給出我們的假設性看法。

That's all that this is.

僅此而已。

In Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, the assassin shot from 140 meters away.

7 月 13 日，在賓夕法尼亞州的巴特勒，刺客從 140 米外開槍射擊。

Trump had just turned his head a couple of centimeters.

特朗普剛剛把頭轉了幾釐米。

If he hadn't have done this, it's very likely that he would have been killed by the bullet.

如果他沒有這樣做，很可能就會被子彈打死。

Instead, the shot grazed his ear.

相反，子彈擦過了他的耳朵。

If he hadn't been so lucky, we'd be looking at a completely different world today.

如果他沒有那麼幸運，我們今天看到的世界將完全不同。

Donald Trump would be dead.

唐納德-特朗普就死定了。

So what would happen next?

那麼接下來會發生什麼呢？

One of the most important things that would need to be figured out would be who would take the mantle of the Republican presidential nominee.

其中最重要的一點是，誰將接過共和黨總統提名人的衣缽。

It all depends on when this happens.

這取決於何時發生。

The answer can change if it were before the Republican National Convention or after.

如果是在共和黨全國代表大會之前或之後，答案可能會改變。

So in the case of the July 13th assassination attempt, things would get a little more complicated.

是以，在 7 月 13 日的暗殺未遂事件中，情況會變得複雜一些。

Since this event happened right before the Republican National Convention, which was set for July 15th, the delegates involved in selecting the Republican presidential nominee would have to move incredibly fast.

由於這一事件發生在定於 7 月 15 日舉行的共和黨全國代表大會之前，參與推選共和黨總統候選人的代表們必須以令人難以置信的速度行動起來。

With little time in between the shooting and the convention, the nominee would likely be decided on the convention floor that night.

由於槍擊事件與大會之間的時間間隔很短，被提名人很可能在當晚的大會上決定。

It would be incredibly messy and frantic.

這將是令人難以置信的混亂和瘋狂。

There'd be backroom deals and public speeches from the hopeful nominees.

有希望的被提名者會進行幕後交易和公開演講。

Now, since Trump had no strong opposition during the primaries, almost everyone could be considered.

現在，由於特朗普在初選中沒有強有力的對手，幾乎每個人都可以被考慮在內。

It would be like going back to square one.

這無異於回到原點。

Even people who didn't run in the primaries could be nominated.

即使沒有參加初選的人也可以獲得提名。

This would be a night full of bids for power.

這將是一個充滿權力爭奪的夜晚。

And whoever's left standing would be the Republican nominee, who would then run for president.

剩下的人將成為共和黨提名人，然後競選總統。

Now, there are some other scenarios that we'll get into in a bit, but what might happen outside of politics?

現在，還有一些其他情況，我們稍後再談，但在政治之外可能會發生什麼呢？

Well, the answer to that is a lot more unknown and potentially terrifying.

那麼，答案就更加未知，也可能更加可怕了。

Donald Trump was seen yelling fight after he got shot, and there's a good chance his supporters would do just that.

有人看到唐納德-特朗普中槍後大喊打架，他的支持者很有可能也會這麼做。

Now, we're not saying everyone, but the extreme fringe of his base might possibly engage.

現在，我們不是說所有人，但他的極端邊緣群體可能會參與進來。

Just look what happened on January 6th, 2021.

看看 2021 年 1 月 6 日發生了什麼吧。

Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol building.

特朗普支持者衝進美國國會大廈。

This was after their emotions were stoked by talk about a stolen election, a claim that was proven to be false.

在此之前，他們的情緒被 "選舉被盜 "的言論所煽動，而這一說法已被證實是錯誤的。

So what would happen if their leader was assassinated?

那麼，如果他們的領導人被暗殺，會發生什麼？

Well, they'd likely be looking for someone to blame, potentially a group of people or the opposing party.

那麼，他們很可能會找人指責，可能是一群人，也可能是反對黨。

Donald Trump has incredibly passionate supporters, more passionate than what we've seen from almost any other political figure in the past.

唐納德-特朗普擁有令人難以置信的熱情支持者，比我們過去從幾乎任何其他政治人物那裡看到的支持者都要熱情。

There's a good chance there could be outbursts of violence and civil unrest.

很有可能會爆發暴力和內亂。

Hopefully, this violence would be contained to small pockets of the country and not become a full-on civil war.

希望這種暴力能被控制在國家的小範圍內，而不是演變成一場全面的內戰。

With Biden still being president and commander in chief, he's in control of the military.

拜登仍然是總統和總司令，他掌控著軍隊。

If things got out of hand, hopefully they'd be able to put a stop to it.

如果事態失控，希望他們能夠制止。

And hopefully no bigger militias would form either.

希望也不會形成更大的民兵組織。

Now, even without any violence, Trump would be idolized even more than he is today.

現在，即使沒有任何暴力，特朗普也會比現在更受偶像崇拜。

Supporters would make him a martyr.

支持者會把他塑造成烈士。

And if some people on the left were happy that this happened, this would create an even bigger political divide across the country.

如果左翼一些人對此感到高興，這將在全國範圍內造成更大的政治分歧。

The new Republican nominee would certainly use this as fuel to energize voters, turning him or her into an even stronger candidate.

共和黨的新提名人肯定會以此為燃料，激發選民的熱情，使自己成為更強有力的候選人。

And more Trump supporters might be inspired to vote in the election now, even without him in the race.

現在，即使沒有他的參與，也可能會有更多特朗普的支持者受到鼓舞，在選舉中投票。

But what if Trump wasn't dead but incapacitated?

但如果特朗普不是死了，而是喪失了行動能力呢？

Well, technically the rules and laws that are in place would still apply, but there could be more nuance.

從技術上講，現行的規則和法律仍然適用，但可能會有更多的細微差別。

If there's a chance Trump comes back and he's healthy, then the party would likely debate whether or not he could continue as the nominee.

如果特朗普有機會復出，而且他身體健康，那麼黨內很可能會就他能否繼續擔任提名人展開辯論。

They'd also consider if he'd be in good enough shape to be sworn in if he potentially became president.

他們還會考慮，如果他有可能成為總統，他的身體狀況是否足以讓他宣誓就職。

Now, the story is a little bit different if the assassination attempt happened after the RNC on July 15th.

現在，如果暗殺企圖發生在 7 月 15 日 RNC 之後，情況就有點不同了。

Donald Trump would be elected as their nominee.

唐納德-特朗普將當選為他們提名的候選人。

So what would happen if he were to die before the election?

那麼，如果他在選舉前去世，會發生什麼呢？

Well, you might think that his running mate would be automatically elevated.

那麼，你可能會認為他的競選搭檔會自動升職。

So his current choice for vice president, J.D.

是以，他目前選擇的副總統人選J.D.

Vance, would become the presidential nominee.

萬斯將成為總統候選人。

But that's not the case.

但事實並非如此。

The nominee for president would still be voted upon by the Republican Party.

總統候選人仍將由共和黨投票產生。

They might go back to square one and reconvene the national convention, or they might just select a new candidate.

他們可能會回到原點，重新召開全國代表大會，也可能只是選出一位新的候選人。

There's a good chance that Trump's running mate would become the presidential nominee, but it's not a guarantee.

特朗普的競選搭檔很有可能成為總統候選人，但這並不是保證。

Other party members might want to get into the mix.

其他黨員可能也想加入進來。

Now, the same rules would apply if Trump won the election on November 5th.

現在，如果特朗普在 11 月 5 日的大選中獲勝，同樣的規則也將適用。

That would make him the president-elect until Inauguration Day on January 20th.

這將使他在 1 月 20 日就職日之前一直是當選總統。

If he were to die between those dates, the vice president-elect doesn't automatically become president.

如果他在這兩個日期之間去世，當選副總統不會自動成為總統。

Since Trump wouldn't officially be sworn in, the 25th Amendment, which allows the vice president to become president if the current one dies, wouldn't be applicable.

由於特朗普不會正式宣誓就職，是以不適用第 25 修正案，該修正案允許副總統在現任總統去世後成為總統。

Now, this got me thinking.

這引起了我的思考。

Could anything like this potentially delay the election?

這樣的事情有可能延後選舉嗎？

Well, technically it could, but it's incredibly unlikely.

從技術上講是可以的，但可能性微乎其微。

Election Day is set by federal law, and it's November 5th.

聯邦法律規定的選舉日是 11 月 5 日。

In order for this to change, it would need to be voted on in the House of Representatives and in the Senate.

要改變這種狀況，需要眾議院和參議院進行投票表決。

The president would need to sign off as well.

總統也需要簽字同意。

But this can only happen if both parties are in agreement, which seems unlikely, especially given the political divide gripping the United States.

但這隻有在雙方達成一致的情況下才能實現，而這似乎不太可能，尤其是考慮到美國目前的政治分歧。

Also, this would only delay the election by a couple of weeks.

而且，這隻會讓選舉延後幾個星期。

As the Constitution states, a president needs to be sworn in by January 20th of the following year.

憲法規定，總統必須在次年 1 月 20 日之前宣誓就職。

Failing that, there would be no president, and things could get really ugly.

如果做不到這一點，就不會有總統，事情就會變得非常糟糕。

Now, this is how the election would be handled, which boils down to a lot of bureaucracy and systems we already have in place.

現在，這就是選舉的處理方式，它可以歸結為我們已有的許多官僚機構和制度。

What happens next could be extreme civil unrest, violence, anger, or potential civil war.

接下來發生的可能是極端的內亂、暴力、憤怒或潛在的內戰。

It's safe to say this would be a scary time for America, for a number of reasons.

可以說，出於多種原因，這對美國來說將是一個可怕的時刻。

On the other hand, maybe a violent act like this might inspire Americans to put down their weapons and come together.

另一方面，也許這樣的暴力行為會激勵美國人放下武器，團結起來。

But considering the political division, that seems unlikely.

但考慮到政治分歧，這似乎不太可能。

Now, this is not a fun hypothetical scenario.

現在，這可不是一個有趣的假設情景。

Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, it would be a scary time for Americans, and for people around the world.

無論您的政治立場如何，對美國人和全世界人民來說，這都將是一個可怕的時刻。

Let's just hope this assassination attempt doesn't lead to any further violent acts.

但願這次暗殺行動不會引發更多的暴力事件。

I know I don't want to end up in a World War III, but that sounds like a story for another What If.

我知道我不想捲入第三次世界大戰，但這聽起來像是另一個 "如果 "的故事。