On its side, you'll find a list of minerals, minerals which are so essential for our metabolism that we are willing to make exceptions, even in times of war, for trade in grains.

在它的側面，你會發現一份礦物質清單，這些礦物質對我們的新陳代謝至關重要，以至於我們願意破例，甚至在戰爭時期，進行穀物貿易。

This has happened indeed in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

在當前俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突中，這種情況確實發生了。

Now, minerals are also essential for humanity,

現在，礦物質也是人類所必需的、

Now, minerals are also essential for humanity in another pivotal way.

現在，礦物質在另一個關鍵方面也對人類至關重要。

They help us build the infrastructure to deliver on clean, reliable energy.

他們幫助我們建設基礎設施，以提供清潔、可靠的能源。

Energy, of course, drives life in all its various forms, and mineral raw materials are the means by which we harness that energy.

當然，能源驅動著各種形式的生命，而礦物原料則是我們利用能源的手段。

Now, the interesting thing is that the more sustainable forms of energy are the ones that require more materials.

現在，有趣的是，更可持續的能源形式是需要更多材料的能源形式。

Have a look at this research we did.

來看看我們所做的這項研究。

For the same amount of energy generation, take a look at how much more material you need for solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal.

同樣的發電量，太陽能、風能、水電和地熱需要更多的材料。

For solar in particular, the blue bar represents critical minerals which are required for us to squeeze that sunshine juice that we so crave.

特別是對於太陽能來說，藍色條代表著我們榨取渴望的陽光汁液所需的關鍵礦物質。

Now, I've spent most of my career studying environmental and social conflicts and finding ways of resolving them.

現在，我職業生涯的大部分時間都在研究環境和社會衝突，並尋找解決衝突的方法。

And what I've discovered is that those conflicts that involve minerals and energy are the most intractable.

我發現，那些涉及礦產和能源的衝突是最棘手的。

Why is that the case?

為什麼會這樣呢？

Well, it's because minerals and energy infrastructure are confined by geography.

這是因為礦產和能源基礎設施受到地理條件的限制。

You can only mine where there are minerals.

你只能在有礦產的地方採礦。

You can only have wind power where you've got wind, and so on.

有風的地方才能有風力發電，等等。

So you are in this situation where you're only going to be able to harness these resources in particular areas.

是以，在這種情況下，你只能在特定領域利用這些資源。

So if you look here,

所以，如果你看這裡

South Africa, for example, has massive reserves of platinum.

例如，南非就擁有大量的鉑金儲備。

That's an accident of geology.

這是地質學的一個意外。

But that makes South Africa a pivotal player in the hydrogen economy.

但這使得南非在氫能經濟中扮演著舉足輕重的角色。

Why, you would wonder?

你會問為什麼？

Hydrogen, platinum?

氫、鉑？

Well, you need platinum for hydrogen fuel cells.

氫燃料電池需要鉑。

Also have a look at China's dominance there.

還可以看看中國在那裡的主導地位。

China has invested tremendously in down-processing their technologies around especially refining minerals.

中國在圍繞礦物提煉的精深加工技術方面投入巨大。

And so downstream refining is also going to be pivotal in delivering those minerals.

是以，下游精煉也將是提供這些礦產的關鍵。

Now, diversification is something we are seeking, and one of the ways in which we're trying to do that is to invest all over the world in other places where we can mine and refine.

現在，多樣化是我們正在尋求的目標，而我們努力實現這一目標的方法之一，就是在世界各地投資，在我們可以開採和提煉的其他地方進行投資。

But keep in mind that if you're going to do that, you will probably end up developing new sites, and that may not necessarily be more efficient economically or cleaner, even.

但請記住，如果你要這樣做，你最終很可能要開發新的場地，而這在經濟上未必更有效，甚至未必更清潔。

So while diversification builds resilience, it is likely to lead to greenfield development.

是以，多樣化在增強復原力的同時，很可能會導致新開發項目。

New sites, right?

新網站，對嗎？

As opposed to brownfield development.

與棕地開發相對。

Now, with greenfield development, we have a challenge, because communities often don't want these sites in their backyard.

現在，對於綠地開發，我們面臨著一個挑戰，因為社區往往不希望這些地塊出現在自家後院。

We've just seen in the last year in Minnesota, there was a very lucrative green transition minerals project which was denied a permit by the US Department of Interior because of concerns on social and environmental risks raised by indigenous communities.

我們剛剛看到，去年在明尼蘇達州，有一個利潤非常豐厚的綠色轉型礦產項目被美國內政部拒絕發放許可，原因是土著社區提出了對社會和環境風險的擔憂。

And indeed, we need to respect those concerns.

事實上，我們需要尊重這些關切。

So you have this strange situation where you have geopolitical tensions between countries where there is immense supply of resources and those where there is demand, such as between China and the United States currently, and then you have domestic conflicts over social and environmental risk.

是以，就出現了這樣一種奇怪的局面：資源供應量巨大的國家與資源需求量巨大的國家之間存在地緣政治緊張局勢，例如目前中國與美國之間的緊張局勢，然後是國內因社會和環境風險而產生的衝突。

So this is the perfect storm, right?

這就是完美風暴，對嗎？

How do we get out of it?

我們如何擺脫困境？

Well, my big bet is that we can get out of it if we reconfigure the conversation around a planetary mechanism, or what I'm calling a mineral trust for the green transition.

我的最大賭注是，如果我們圍繞一個地球機制，或者我所說的綠色轉型礦產信託基金，重新配置對話，我們就能擺脫困境。

Now, how would this mineral trust work?

那麼，這個礦產信託基金是如何運作的呢？

Well, it would be similar to an asset protection trust, where you've got a beneficiary that assigns a third party with control, which is a trustee, on how to manage those resources most effectively.

這與資產保護信託類似，受益人指定第三方（即受託人）控制如何最有效地管理這些資源。

So in this case, in the mineral trust, the beneficiaries would be the mineral-producing countries.

是以，在這種情況下，礦產信託的受益人將是礦產生產國。

You would also have the technology-producing countries, who are demanding the minerals, part of the trustee relationship.

技術生產國也是託管關係的一部分，他們需要礦產。

So the trustees would be both.

是以，受託人將是兩者兼而有之。

And so the minerals would go into the mineral trust.

是以，礦產將進入礦產信託基金。

You would have a market price that would be paid by those countries that are demanding the minerals.

那些需要這些礦產的國家將支付一個市場價格。

Profits would still accrue in the same way.

利潤仍將以同樣的方式累積。

And you would have key decision points managed by technical, not political, arms of the United Nations.

關鍵的決策點將由聯合國的技術部門而非政治部門管理。

And this would, in this case, be the International Renewable Energy Agency and the Climate Technology Center Network.

在這種情況下，這就是國際可再生能源機構和氣候技術中心網絡。

And so what you would have, then, is this mechanism that is much more technocratic and also much more efficient.

這樣一來，你將擁有一個更加技術化、更加高效的機制。

You would also pivotally have a green stockpile, where under situations of commodity price changes, you would be buffered from those problems for mineral-producing countries, and it would also be like a rainy-day fund.

你還將擁有一個綠色儲備，在商品價格變化的情況下，你可以緩衝礦產生產國的這些問題，它也將像一個雨天基金。

Now, in terms of the larger scheme of things, this is going to potentially play out pretty well, but you would wonder, why would this be operationalized?

現在，就更大的計劃而言，這可能會發揮得很好，但你會想，為什麼要將其付諸實施呢？

And so a country like Indonesia, let's say, it's the world's largest nickel producer, right?

是以，像印尼這樣的國家，比方說，它是世界上最大的鎳生產國，對嗎？

It would still have the full control over producing nickel and also being able to sell the nickel for profit.

它仍然可以完全控制鎳的生產，也可以出售鎳獲利。

The only difference is it couldn't weaponize the control of its resource.

唯一不同的是，它無法將資源控制權武器化。

And that would make this a much more efficient system for the global economy as well.

這樣一來，全球經濟系統的效率也會大大提高。

Now, I can understand some of you may be still very concerned that this kind of mechanism is unnecessary.

現在，我可以理解你們中的一些人可能仍然非常擔心這種機制是不必要的。

Friends in the environmentalist community would say, we should just be consuming less, we shouldn't be mining, right?

環保界的朋友會說，我們應該減少消費，我們不應該採礦，對嗎？

And I totally agree with you, but that's for high-income countries.

我完全同意你的觀點，但這是針對高收入國家而言的。

Keep in mind, there are 760 million people, at least, who do not have access to even electricity.

要知道，至少有 7.6 億人連電都用不上。

You can't ask them to consume less, right?

你總不能要求他們少消費吧？

So you've got that dynamic at play.

所以，你就有了這種動力。

Now, the second question, which our friends would often raise, again, within the environmentalist community, is, why don't we recycle, right?

現在，我們的朋友經常提出的第二個問題是，為什麼我們不回收利用呢？

And that's a very cogent question, but you need to have stock of material to recycle, folks.

這是一個很有說服力的問題，但你需要有材料庫存來回收，夥計們。

If you don't have the stock, you can't recycle.

如果沒有庫存，就無法回收。

And the other challenge with recycling is that it puts you in this tradeoff between durability of a product, so you want your product to last long, because that's an important sustainability criterion, but if it lasts long, you can't recycle it, right?

回收利用的另一個挑戰是，它讓你在產品的耐用性之間做出權衡，所以你希望你的產品能夠經久耐用，因為這是一個重要的可持續發展標準，但如果產品經久耐用，你就無法回收利用，對嗎？

So you have to find that sweet spot of how long you want to have that product in use.

是以，你必須找到你希望產品使用多長時間的最佳時機。

And we did this analysis just for electric car batteries, and here you can see in the red bars, basically, that is the amount of mineral stock in 2015 to 2016 that was available out of recycled material to contribute towards manufacturing these batteries.

我們僅對電動汽車電池進行了分析，在這裡你可以看到紅色的柱狀圖，基本上是2015年至2016年可用於製造這些電池的再生材料的礦物庫存量。

And look at the blue bars, how the demand is likely to grow, and that's in-use material.

再看藍色條，需求可能會如何增長，這就是在用材料。

So the average sweet spot is 14 years for an electric car battery, so you want it to last 14 years.

是以，電動汽車電池的平均壽命是 14 年，所以你希望它能用 14 年。

And you cannot have that material available for recycling, OK?

你不能把這些材料用於回收，知道嗎？

But the good news with our mineral trust is that it can still be used as a mechanism, actually, to have recycling put through.

但我們的礦產信託基金的好消息是，它實際上仍可用作一種機制，使回收工作得以順利進行。

Where would it go? You could put it in the stockpile.

它能去哪兒呢？你可以把它放在倉庫裡。

So once you have the stocks, you want a circular economy, you put it in the stockpile, and you could even lease metal, which is really cool, right?

所以，一旦你有了庫存，你想要循環經濟，你就把它放進庫存裡，你甚至可以租賃金屬，這真的很酷，對嗎？

Like, you lease your cars, you could lease your metal, and that way, batteries could be leased and so on, and that creates incentives as well.

比如，你可以租賃你的汽車，你也可以租賃你的金屬，這樣，電池也可以租賃等等，這也會產生激勵作用。

But the trust can be used for that, too, all right?

但信託也可以用來做這個，好嗎？

Now, I know there are still friends who will be skeptics, especially in the defense establishment, and they'll say, like, this guy coming from academia, yeah, rolling their eyes, basically saying, you know, this fellow is just singing some mineral kumbaya in La La Land, he has no idea about realpolitik and, you know, the high politics of war and peace.

現在，我知道仍有朋友持懷疑態度，尤其是國防機構的朋友，他們會說，這個人來自學術界，是的，他們會翻白眼，基本上是說，你知道，這個傢伙只是在La La Land唱一些礦產歌，他根本不懂現實政治，你知道，戰爭與和平的高級政治。

Well, I would respectfully submit to them that I have actually looked at war and peace issues.

那麼，我想恭敬地告訴他們，我確實研究過戰爭與和平問題。

I come originally from Pakistan, which is a country that has endured much conflict, so I am sensitive to those issues.

我來自巴基斯坦，這個國家經歷了很多衝突，所以我對這些問題很敏感。

And you'd be surprised, actually, to find that it is precisely over planetary issues where humanity has cooperated in unlikely ways.

事實上，你會驚訝地發現，正是在地球問題上，人類才以一種不太可能的方式進行了合作。

The only treaty in the United Nations system where we have ratification from all UN member states is a treaty on environmental protection.

在聯合國系統中，我們得到所有聯合國會員國準許的唯一條約是一項關於環境保護的條約。

It's the treaty to protect the ozone layer, all right?

這是保護臭氧層的條約，對嗎？

Now, you'd say that was in 1987, it was a time of relative peace.

現在，你會說那是在 1987 年，那是一個相對和平的時代。

Well, go back to the 1950s.

那就回到 20 世紀 50 年代吧。

We have the Antarctic Treaty, where you had multiple claimants on this massive continent, and those claimants, for the greater good of science, set aside their claims, and they signed the Antarctic Treaty, including the former Soviet Union.

我們有《南極條約》，在這塊廣袤的大陸上有多個主權要求者，為了科學的更大利益，這些主權要求者擱置了他們的要求，他們簽署了《南極條約》，其中包括前蘇聯。

Have a look at this photograph as well.

也來看看這張照片。

It shows scientists from the former Soviet Union and the United States of America chatting quite amiably at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,

影片展示了前蘇聯和美利堅合眾國的科學家在國際應用系統分析研究所進行的友好交談、

IASA, that's a mouthful, just remember IASA.

IASA，好大的口氣，記住 IASA就行了。

IASA was established at the height of the Cold War, in the year I was born, incidentally, but that organization is still around today.

IASA 成立於冷戰最激烈的時期，也就是我出生的那一年，但該組織至今依然存在。

Why was this established even then?

為什麼在那個時候就已經確定了呢？

Because during the Cold War, too, the former Soviet Union, the United States and many other countries realized that global environmental data has to be shared, and it is this institution which develops many of the social protection models around climate change as well, in terms of doing scenario analysis.

因為在冷戰期間，前蘇聯、美國和許多其他國家也意識到，全球環境數據必須共享，正是這個機構開發了許多圍繞氣候變化的社會保護模型，進行情景分析。

And so IASA shows us that we can cooperate over these kinds of issues as well.

是以，IASA 向我們表明，我們也可以在這些問題上進行合作。

Now, even in terms of metals, we have had one experiment of trying to cooperate.

現在，即使在金屬方面，我們也進行了一次嘗試合作的實驗。

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, in the 1970s, tried to set up a trading platform for the metal tin, but it didn't work, because it was never framed around planetary sustainability issues.

20 世紀 70 年代，聯合國貿易和發展會議曾試圖為金屬錫建立一個貿易平臺，但沒有成功，因為該平臺從未圍繞地球可持續性問題展開。

So I've tried to, in this idea for a mineral trust, learn from these lessons and mistakes, so that it is a very pragmatic idea.

是以，在礦產信託基金的構想中，我試圖從這些經驗教訓和錯誤中吸取教訓，使其成為一個非常務實的構想。

It's not pie in the sky, it's something we can do.

這不是空中樓閣，而是我們可以做到的。

The good news is, we do have now a new panel that has been established by the United Nations Secretary General that is focused on energy transition minerals.

好消息是，聯合國祕書長已經成立了一個新的小組，專門研究能源轉型礦產問題。

So we hope that this idea can hopefully be taken up in a very timely way, because time is running out.

是以，我們希望能夠非常及時地採納這一想法，因為時間已經不多了。

Scientists have consensus that we have basically come to the point of crossing five key tipping points on climate change within the next few decades.

科學家們一致認為，在未來幾十年內，我們基本上已經跨越了氣候變化的五個關鍵臨界點。

And without minerals, folks, we cannot mitigate emissions, as I have shown, but we cannot even adapt, because even for infrastructure, for adaptation, you need minerals, right?

各位，沒有礦產，我們就無法減緩排放，正如我所表明的那樣，但我們甚至無法適應，因為即使是基礎設施和適應，你也需要礦產，對嗎？

So minerals are a civilizational asset.

是以，礦產是一種文明財富。

We don't need to fight over them.

我們不需要為它們爭吵。

We have the history and precedent to show that we can cooperate over them, just as we have cooperated over grains which have minerals in times of war.

我們有歷史和先例表明，我們可以在這些問題上進行合作，就像我們在戰爭時期在有礦物的穀物問題上進行合作一樣。

We can surely cooperate over minerals that energize our lives.

我們一定能合作開採那些能為我們的生活注入活力的礦物質。

Our future depends on it.

我們的未來取決於此。

Thank you.

謝謝。