And no, it's not the inverted yield curve.

不，這不是因為收益率曲線倒掛。

In fact, it has nothing to do with interest rates, and we urgently need to talk about it.

事實上，這與利率無關，我們迫切需要討論這個問題。

I'll also be discussing recent economic data, upcoming inflation data, and what investors should look out for this week.

我還將討論近期的經濟數據、即將到來的通脹數據以及投資者本週應該關注的問題。

So this is where I want you guys to pay very close attention and make sure you stick around until the end because you don't want to miss this.

所以在這裡，我希望你們密切關注，並確保你們堅持到最後，因為你們不想錯過這個環節。

To begin, one of the most accurate indicators of a recession has been the 10-year minus 3-month yield spread chart.

首先，經濟衰退最準確的指標之一是 10 年期減 3 個月收益率差值圖。

And I've talked about this before, but just to give you a quick gist, this is a chart that plots the difference in interest rates of 10-year treasury yields and 3-month treasury yields.

我以前也談到過這個問題，但我只想給大家簡單介紹一下，這是一張 10 年期國債收益率和 3 個月期國債收益率的利率差圖。

When yields on 3-month treasuries exceed the yields on 10-year treasuries, this graph will go into negative territory, as you can see right here.

當 3 個月國債收益率超過 10 年期國債收益率時，這個圖表就會變成負值，就像你在這裡看到的那樣。

This is essentially another way of showing an inverted yield curve.

這實質上是收益率曲線倒掛的另一種表現形式。

And the yield curve is a graph that plots the interest rates of bonds according to their maturity dates.

收益率曲線是根據債券到期日繪製的債券利率圖。

When interest rates on short-term bonds exceed long-term bonds, you get an inverted yield curve.

當短期債券的利率超過長期債券的利率時，就會出現收益率曲線倒掛。

And remember, this only happens when the Federal Reserve hikes up interest rates.

請記住，這種情況只有在美聯儲提高利率時才會發生。

But there's a slight misunderstanding here.

但這裡有一點誤解。

Now, if you guys are enjoying this content and find it helpful, please do me a little favor and hit that thumbs up button for the YouTube algorithm.

現在，如果你們喜歡這些內容並覺得有幫助，請幫我一個小忙，為 YouTube 算法按下大拇指按鈕。

It really helps out my channel and I really appreciate it.

這對我的頻道很有幫助，我真的很感激。

So thank you guys so much.

非常感謝你們。

Let's move on.

讓我們繼續前進。

You have to remember that the yield curve can be inverted for an extended period of In fact, in all past recessions, when the yield curve reverted back to positive is when a recession actually occurred.

事實上，在過去所有的經濟衰退中，當收益率曲線恢復到正值時，經濟衰退才真正發生。

And when the yield curve reverts to positive, it means that interest rates were cut.

而當收益率曲線恢復為正值時，就意味著利率已經下調。

But determining whether the economy will go into a recession cannot strictly be based on interest rates.

但是，判斷經濟是否會陷入衰退，不能嚴格以利率為依據。

There are many other factors that go into this whole equation.

這其中還有許多其他因素。

And one of the most important ones is unemployment rate.

其中最重要的是失業率。

The Federal Reserve pays very close attention to this.

美聯儲對此非常關注。

Unemployment rate gives us key insight into business growth and overall economic growth.

失業率為我們提供了企業增長和整體經濟增長的關鍵資訊。

Rising unemployment can have a negative impact on consumer spending and business investments, which can ultimately lead to a slowdown in GDP growth.

失業率上升會對消費者支出和企業投資產生負面影響，最終導致國內生產總值增長放緩。

And remember that a recession is characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

請記住，經濟衰退的特徵是國內生產總值連續兩個季度出現負增長。

Right now, unemployment rate seems to be rising consistently.

目前，失業率似乎在持續上升。

And last week's report on unemployment came out higher than what analysts expected at 4.1% as opposed to 4%.

上週的失業率報告高於分析師的預期，為 4.1%，而不是 4%。

And this also happened in the last three reports, all of which came out 0.1% higher than expectations.

在過去的三份報告中也出現了這種情況，所有報告都比預期高出 0.1%。

Now, you would assume that this would be bad for the markets.

現在，你會認為這對市場不利。

However, in a high interest rate environment, this is actually a positive catalyst.

然而，在高利率環境下，這實際上是一種積極的催化劑。

Because with rising unemployment comes the risk of economic contraction.

因為失業率的上升會帶來經濟萎縮的風險。

So the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in order to stimulate the economy, reducing the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, and therefore encouraging spending and investing, which will attribute to economic growth and more job creation and ultimately serve as a positive catalyst for the markets.

是以，美聯儲將開始降息以刺激經濟，降低企業和消費者的借貸成本，從而鼓勵消費和投資，這將促進經濟增長，創造更多就業機會，最終成為市場的積極催化劑。

On July 5th, after the release of recent unemployment data, the S&P 500 rallied another 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 1%.

7 月 5 日，在最近的失業數據公佈後，標準普爾 500 指數又反彈了 0.5%，納斯達克 100 指數反彈超過 1%。

Ten-year Treasury yields fell sharply that day, closing down 1.5%.

十年期國債收益率當天大幅下跌，收盤時下跌了 1.5%。

And it's important to note that the 10-year Treasury yield is a representation of the market's expectation of interest rates.

值得注意的是，10 年期國債收益率代表了市場對利率的預期。

A drop in 10-year yields signals that investors are anticipating lower rates in the future.

10 年期收益率下降預示著投資者預期未來利率將走低。

So this is a connection that investors should always look out for.

是以，投資者應該時刻注意這種聯繫。

Now, circling back to unemployment, given its importance, there's an indicator that strictly uses this as a means of predicting a recession.

現在，回到失業率，鑑於其重要性，有一個指標嚴格地將其作為預測經濟衰退的手段。

And this is the Sam Rule Recession Indicator, which recently has started signaling a recession.

這是山姆規則衰退指標，最近開始發出衰退信號。

This is an indicator that was developed to provide a real-time signal of the start of a recession strictly based on changes in unemployment rate.

這是一個嚴格根據失業率變化來提供經濟衰退開始的實時信號的指標。

And the way it works is actually very simple.

它的工作原理其實很簡單。

The rule states that if the three-month average unemployment is 0.5% higher than the previous 12-month low, then a recession is already underway.

該規則規定，如果三個月的平均失業率比前 12 個月的低點高出 0.5%，那麼衰退就已經開始了。

So let's break that down a little bit because it does sound confusing.

讓我們來分析一下，因為這聽起來確實令人困惑。

However, it is actually very simple.

不過，這其實很簡單。

So right now, if you look at the past three-month headline unemployment rates, which were 3.9%, 4%, and 4.1%, the average of the three is 4%.

是以，如果你看看過去三個月的總體失業率，分別為 3.9%、4% 和 4.1%，這三個月的平均失業率為 4%。

And if you look at the previous unemployment rate from 12 months prior, which would be July of 2023, unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

如果你看看之前 12 個月的失業率，也就是 2023 年 7 月，失業率為 3.5%。

So this shows that the three-month average is 0.5% higher.

是以，這表明三個月的平均值高出 0.5%。

And when you look at the Sam Rule Recession Indicator, you see a steadily rising chart.

當你查看山姆規則衰退指標時，你會看到一個穩步上升的圖表。

But of course, if you look at the number, it's actually at 0.43 rather than 0.5.

當然，如果你看一下數字，實際上是 0.43，而不是 0.5。

And this is because the unemployment rate in the month of June was actually 4.05%, but it was rounded up to 4.1%.

這是因為 6 月份的失業率實際上是 4.05%，但被四捨五入為 4.1%。

So technically, the three-month average would right now be 0.43% higher than July's unemployment rate.

是以，從技術上講，現在的三個月平均失業率比 7 月份的失業率高 0.43%。

But if you consider the fact that unemployment rates have been steadily rising, and the actual results have been higher than the estimates for three consecutive months, well, you can be quite certain that next month's unemployment rate will likely trigger the Sam Rule Recession Indicator.

但如果考慮到失業率一直在穩步上升，而且實際結果已經連續三個月高於預估值，那麼可以肯定的是，下個月的失業率很可能會觸發山姆規則衰退指標。

Now, my number one source of economic data, comparison charts, fund details, market updates, and finding a strong investment is Seeking Alpha, and I highly, highly suggest to use this platform.

現在，我獲取經濟數據、對比圖表、基金詳情、市場更新以及尋找強勢投資的第一管道就是 Seeking Alpha，我強烈建議大家使用這個平臺。

And right now, you guys can get $50 off their premium plan by using my link in the description down below.

現在，你們使用我在下面描述中的鏈接，就可以在他們的高級計劃中獲得 50 美元的優惠。

And I'm also super excited to announce a new feature that they rolled out, which are investing groups.

我還非常興奮地宣佈，他們推出了一項新功能，即投資小組。

And these groups give you direct access to Seeking Alpha's expert analysts that create model portfolios, regular stock picks, sell and buy notifications, and provide exclusive investor resources.

通過這些群組，您可以直接訪問 Seeking Alpha 的專家分析師，他們會創建模型投資組合、定期選股、賣出和買入通知，並提供獨家投資者資源。

I, myself, am in two of these groups, which are the Growth Investor Pro and the Dividend Freedom Tribe.

我本人就加入了其中的兩個小組，即 Growth Investor Pro 和 Dividend Freedom Tribe。

If you guys want to get access to these groups and check it out for yourself, there are also many other groups available, then you can get 20% off your membership by using my link in the description down below.

如果你們想進入這些群組並親自查看，還有很多其他群組，那麼使用我在下面描述中的鏈接，就可以享受會員資格八折優惠。

Now, back to the video.

現在，回到視頻上來。

So how accurate has this indicator been so far?

那麼，到目前為止，這一指標的準確性如何？

If we look at the past recessions, like the Great Recession of 2008, this indicator hit 0.5 in April of 2008.

如果我們看一下過去的經濟衰退，比如 2008 年的大衰退，這一指標在 2008 年 4 月達到 0.5。

And if you look at the S&P 500's close in April of 2008, within 11 months, the markets fell 51%.

如果你看看 2008 年 4 月標準普爾 500 指數的收盤價，在 11 個月內，市場下跌了 51%。

And the same goes for the Recession of 2001.

2001 年的經濟衰退也是如此。

The Samrel Recession indicator was triggered at 0.5% at around June of 2001.

薩姆雷爾衰退指標在 2001 年 6 月左右達到 0.5%。

The market subsequently fell 40% in the 10 months that followed.

隨後的 10 個月裡，市場下跌了 40%。

Now, remember, in both cases, the indicator wasn't timing the top of the markets.

請記住，在這兩種情況下，指標都沒有把握市場頂部的時機。

In fact, the markets have already sold off a decent amount before the indicator was triggered.

事實上，在觸發該指標之前，市場已經出現了相當程度的拋售。

In 2008, the S&P 500 had sold off around 13%, and in 2001, the markets have already sold off around 20%.

2008 年，標準普爾 500 指數下跌了約 13%，而 2001 年，市場已經下跌了約 20%。

Now, this isn't to fearmonger anyone, and you also have to keep in mind that every economic situation is different as history doesn't always repeat itself.

現在，這並不是要恐嚇任何人，你也必須牢記，每種經濟形勢都是不同的，因為歷史不會總是重演。

So what does this mean for investors moving forward?

那麼，這對投資者來說意味著什麼？

For now, the markets are continuing on their very strong rally, and that is all due to the AI movement with big tech carrying the entire market.

目前，市場仍在繼續強勁反彈，而這一切都歸功於人工智能運動，大型科技公司帶動了整個市場。

But it is also thanks to the hopes of interest rate cuts.

但這也要歸功於降息的希望。

Because remember, in the current high interest rate environment, interest rate cuts are a positive catalyst for the markets.

因為請記住，在當前的高利率環境下，降息是市場的積極催化劑。

And as I mentioned earlier, unemployment data was another positive catalyst, which also led to a relatively strong rally in the markets.

正如我之前提到的，失業數據是另一個積極的催化劑，也導致了市場相對強勁的反彈。

But this week, we have CPI inflation data being released, and the markets are extremely sensitive to this.

但本週將公佈 CPI 通脹數據，市場對此極為敏感。

And really, there's two key reasons here.

其實，這裡有兩個關鍵原因。

For one, just like with rising unemployment, the markets will react positively to declining inflation.

首先，就像失業率上升一樣，市場也會對通脹下降做出積極反應。

Inflation is the key reason why the Federal Reserve has consistently decided to keep interest rates at 5.5% for the past year.

通貨膨脹是美聯儲在過去一年裡始終決定將利率維持在 5.5%的關鍵原因。

They have constantly stated that they will start cutting interest rates once they see confirmations of dropping inflation.

他們不斷表示，一旦確認通脹下降，就會開始降息。

And the most important thing to note here is that if the Federal Reserve is premature with their rate cuts, that will actually boost inflation even higher, which is a major risk for the economy.

這裡最需要注意的是，如果美聯儲降息的時機尚不成熟，實際上會進一步推高通脹，這對經濟來說是一個重大風險。

So we can expect the markets to react positively if we see inflation numbers either in line with estimates or below estimates.

是以，我們可以預期，如果通脹數據符合或低於預期，市場將會做出積極反應。

If they are even slightly below estimates, the markets will react very positively.

哪怕是略低於預期，市場也會做出非常積極的反應。

And we saw that happen last month in June, where CPI inflation data came in 0.1% below estimates, which triggered a very strong rally.

我們看到，上個月 6 月份的 CPI 通脹數據比預期低 0.1%，引發了非常強勁的反彈。

The S&P 500 closed up almost 1% and the NASDAQ 100 rallied around 1.5%, forming a gap in the daily chart because the major spike was initiated in pre-market.

標準普爾 500 指數收盤上漲近 1%，納斯達克 100 指數上漲約 1.5%，在日線圖上形成了一個缺口，因為主要的飆升是在盤前開始的。

And 10-year treasuries fell more than 3% that day.

而 10 年期國債當天的跌幅超過了 3%。

And this week, Thursday, July 11th, could be another one of those days.

而本週，7 月 11 日星期四，可能又是這樣的一天。

So this is why investors need to pay very close attention to this.

是以，投資者需要對此密切關注。

Right now, core CPI month-over-month estimates are in line with last month's results at 0.2%.

目前，核心 CPI 月環比預估值為 0.2%，與上月結果一致。

And year-over-year CPI is actually forecasted 0.2% below previous results.

CPI 同比實際預測值比之前的結果低 0.2%。

So if the numbers come in in line with these estimates, the markets will react positively.

是以，如果數據符合這些估計，市場將會做出積極反應。

But if they come in below estimates, then another strong rally could be triggered.

但如果低於預期，則可能引發另一波強勁反彈。

But what if the numbers come in above estimates?

但是，如果數字高於預期呢？

Well, without a doubt, this will be a negative catalyst for the markets.

毫無疑問，這將成為市場的負面催化劑。

But it may also give rise to another major concern.

但它也可能引起另一個重大問題。

One that Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, has also expressed his concerns about.

摩根大通首席執行官傑米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也表達了他的擔憂。

And that is stagflation.

這就是滯脹。

You see, if inflation continues on a sideways trend, or in other words, continues to be sticky, then the Federal Reserve will be put in a very tough situation regarding interest rates.

你看，如果通貨膨脹繼續呈橫向趨勢，或者換句話說，繼續呈膠著狀態，那麼美聯儲在利率問題上就會陷入非常艱難的境地。

As I mentioned before, interest rate cuts are heavily influenced by inflation.

正如我之前提到的，降息在很大程度上受通貨膨脹的影響。

And if the Federal Reserve sees stagnant inflation, then they will have less reason to start cutting rates because they do not want to have inflation rise again.

如果美聯儲看到通脹停滯不前，那麼他們就更沒有理由開始降息，因為他們不希望通脹再次上升。

But at the same time, we have to remember that right now, we have rising unemployment and slowing GDP growth.

但與此同時，我們必須記住，現在我們的失業率在上升，國內生產總值增長在放緩。

And interest rate cuts are used to stimulate the economy when unemployment rises and GDP growth slows.

而當失業率上升、國內生產總值增長放緩時，降息就會被用來刺激經濟。

So a combination of high inflation, but slowing GDP growth and rising unemployment is not a good scenario whatsoever.

是以，高通脹、國內生產總值增長放緩和失業率上升並不是一個好現象。

The last time we saw this happen was in the 1970s.

上一次出現這種情況還是在 20 世紀 70 年代。

And Jamie Dimon himself just stated that he's worried that the economy looks more like the 70s than we've seen before.

傑米-戴蒙本人剛剛表示，他擔心現在的經濟比我們以前看到的更像70年代。

Now, of course, the economy right now is very different from the 1970s because there was an oil and energy crisis.

當然，現在的經濟與 20 世紀 70 年代大不相同，因為當時發生了石油和能源危機。

Without a doubt, the markets are very sensitive to inflation data right now.

毫無疑問，目前市場對通脹數據非常敏感。

So that is why you guys have to pay very close attention when it comes to these key dates.

是以，你們必須密切關注這些關鍵日期。

And I will post these dates in my community tab.

我將在我的社區標籤中公佈這些日期。

So make sure you keep an eye out for that.

是以，請務必留意這一點。

And that is all for this one.

這次就到此為止。

If you haven't yet, make sure you subscribe to my channel and hit the thumbs up button for the YouTube algorithm.

如果您還沒有訂閱，請務必訂閱我的頻道，併為 YouTube 算法點擊大拇指按鈕。

Thank you guys so much for watching.

非常感謝你們的收看。

And I will see you in my next one.

我們下一次再見。

Bye!

再見！