Obviously, interest rates, if you compare it over the last 15 years of monetary policy, is at an elevated rate.

顯然，如果比較過去 15 年的貨幣政策，利率處於高位。

Does the Fed anticipate any possibility of rates being lowered, whether it's 50 basis points, 100 basis points, at some point over the next year or two?

美聯儲是否預計有可能在未來一兩年的某個時候降低利率，無論是 50 個基點還是 100 個基點？

So, I guess the question really is, where are interest rates going to settle out when all of the effects of the pandemic are really done?

是以，我想真正的問題是，當大流行病的所有影響真正消除之後，利率會在哪裡得到解決？

And no one knows.

沒有人知道。

This is a great discussion to have.

這是一次很好的討論。

But I think my sense, and pretty commonly people think, we probably won't go back to that era between the global financial crisis and the pandemic, where rates were very, very low, and inflation was very low.

但我認為，我的感覺是，人們普遍認為，我們可能不會回到全球金融危機和大流行病之間的那個時代，在那個時代，利率非常非常低，通貨膨脹率也非常低。

And, you know, like extremely low.

而且，你知道，就像極低。

There were major European countries that had negative 10-year bond rates, negative.

歐洲一些主要國家的 10 年期債券利率為負數，是負值。

And that was not the case here.

而這裡的情況並非如此。

But I don't think we're going back to rates that are that low.

但我不認為我們會回到那麼低的利率水準。

We think that things like the neutral rate are driven by slow-moving forces.

我們認為，像中性利率這樣的東西是由緩慢運動的力量驅動的。

But ultimately, you can see the effect.

但最終，你還是能看到效果的。

We have, you know, our policy rate is over 5% now.

你知道，我們的政策利率現在超過了 5%。

And it feels like policy is restrictive, but not, you know, intensely restrictive.

感覺政策是有限制性的，但不是，你知道的，嚴格的限制性。

So that suggests that the neutral rate of interest, at least as of now, will have risen somewhat, which means rates will be a little higher.

是以，這表明至少從目前來看，中性利率會有所上升，這意味著利率會稍高一些。

Okay.

好的

Thank you so much.

非常感謝。

I yield back.

我屈服了。