Name: 大型科技公司的人工智能機器人競賽內幕 (Inside big tech's A.I. robot race)
Uploaded: 2024-07-11T05:06:50.000Z
Duration: 9 min 45 s

This hardware has been around for decades.

Companies like Boston Dynamics, Honda, Sony and others have wowed the public with early versions of these robots.

波士頓動力（Boston Dynamics）、本田（Honda）、索尼（Sony）等公司已經推出了這些機器人的早期版本，令公眾驚歎不已。

The prevailing sort of answer has been the world is built to be occupied by humans.

最普遍的一種回答是，世界就是為人類居住而建造的。

So we want robots that are versatile, that can do a wide range of things.

是以，我們希望機器人是多功能的，能做各種各樣的事情。

And having it adopt the humanoid form factor always made a lot of sense.

而且，讓它採用人形的外形總是很有意義。

Recent leaps in artificial intelligence have resulted in leaps for robotics.

最近人工智能的飛躍帶動了機器人技術的飛躍。

The data that they use to train these robots, it's based in real world scenarios.

他們用來訓練這些機器人的數據都是基於真實世界的場景。

Now a robot can be trained the same way a human is.

現在，機器人可以像人類一樣接受訓練。

We have this technology called teleoperation.

We record all that data and then we use that data to train these models.

我們記錄下所有數據，然後利用這些數據來訓練這些模型。

And the AI models are very similar to the GPT style generative AI models.

而人工智能模型與 GPT 風格的生成式人工智能模型非常相似。

You feed in the 200 trajectories and the system learns how the task is being done.

你輸入 200 條軌跡，系統就會了解任務是如何完成的。

And then the robot will do the task autonomously.

然後，機器人將自主完成任務。

If I go into a new space, I'm now not looking at spending months trying to code that problem.

如果我進入一個新的空間，我現在不用再花幾個月的時間來解決這個問題了。

I can potentially just generate it straight out of gen AI and be able to have Digit interact with new objects and in new environments without having to develop at all.

我有可能直接從 Gen AI 中生成它，讓 Digit 在新環境中與新物體互動，而無需進行任何開發。

AI models require massive quantities of data to train off of, and this is no different.

人工智能模型需要大量數據來訓練，這一點也不例外。

If you show the robot enough things, it starts to be able to do things that it hasn't been shown before.

如果你向機器人展示了足夠多的東西，它就會開始做一些以前從未展示過的事情。

Big tech is very interested in the big potential this technology promises.

大型科技公司對這項技術的巨大潛力非常感興趣。

If you're gonna do AI at the frontier, you need to be partnered with Microsoft or NVIDIA or Google or one of the big players.

如果要在前沿領域開展人工智能，就必須與微軟、英偉達、谷歌或其他大公司合作。

They have resources that nobody else has, even governments.

他們擁有別人沒有的資源，甚至政府也沒有。

NVIDIA's been a great partner up until this point.

在此之前，英偉達一直是一個很好的合作伙伴。

We're using everything from their hardware to their simulation, and then recently have started working with them on foundation models as well.

從硬件到模擬，我們都在使用他們的產品，最近還開始與他們合作開發地基模型。

One of this industry's biggest proponents is Elon Musk.

埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）是這一行業最大的支持者之一。

He's made some bold predictions that Tesla's robot, Optimus, could propel it to a $25 trillion market cap and that it will amount to a majority of Tesla's long-term value with demand as high as 10 to 20 billion units.

他大膽預測，特斯拉的機器人 "擎天柱"（Optimus）可能會將特斯拉推向 25 萬億美元的市值，它將佔特斯拉長期價值的大部分，需求量高達 100 億至 200 億臺。

Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.

特斯拉可以說是世界上最大的機器人公司，因為我們的汽車就像是裝在輪子上的半智能機器人。

And with the full self-driving computer and all the neural nets, it kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form.

有了完整的自動駕駛計算機和所有的神經網絡，把它們放到人形上也就說得通了。

And it's intended to be friendly, of course, and navigate through a world built for humans and eliminate dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks.

當然，它的目的是友好地在為人類建造的世界中航行，消除危險、重複和枯燥的任務。

Digit, created by Oregon-based Agility Robotics, is helping Amazon in early-stage testing at its Sumner Washington Fulfillment Center and Innovation Lab.

由總部位於俄勒岡州的 Agility Robotics 公司創建的 Digit 正在幫助亞馬遜在其華盛頓州薩姆納配送中心和創新實驗室進行早期測試。

We've been working with them recycling totes.

我們一直在與他們合作回收手提袋。

The arms are capable of handling a wide variety of different payloads, up to about 33-ish pounds.

這些機械臂能夠處理各種不同的有效載荷，最大約 33 磅。

We envision an app store for robots out in the future where if you need a tote recycling app, you can go into the app store and download that onto your robot.

我們設想將來會有一個機器人應用商店，如果你需要一個手提袋回收應用，你可以進入應用商店，把它下載到你的機器人上。

And according to the company, there is plenty of demand.

Agility is building a factory in Salem, Oregon to keep up with orders.

Agility 正在俄勒岡州塞勒姆建造一座工廠，以滿足訂單需求。

In a few years, have a capacity of about 10,000 robots per year.

幾年後，每年可生產約 10,000 臺機器人。

And where will those go for the most part?

To many, many customers, but largely initially in the logistics, warehousing space.

客戶很多很多，但最初主要集中在物流和倉儲領域。

The next big market we see is automotive, retail, and then eventually into markets like healthcare.

我們看到的下一個大市場是汽車、零售，然後最終進入醫療保健等市場。

Several other startups are developing similar humanoid robots.

其他幾家初創公司也在開發類似的仿人機器人。

Sanctuary AI, launched in 2018 in Vancouver, Canada, unveiled its latest robot last year.

Sanctuary AI 公司於 2018 年在加拿大溫哥華成立，去年推出了最新的機器人。

Phoenix, a five-foot-seven robot capable of lifting up to 55 pounds.

鳳凰，一個五英尺七英寸高的機器人，能夠舉起 55 磅的重物。

It looks a bit different from other humanoid designs trading its legs for wheels.

它的外形與其他人形設計有些不同，它把腿換成了輪子。

The upper body, including the hands, have to be very weak and light.

包括手在內的上半身必須非常虛弱和輕盈。

So instead of doing that, we put our product on a wheel base.

是以，我們沒有這樣做，而是把我們的產品放在一個輪座上。

And because we made that trade-off, we can build very powerful, very precise, very fast motors in the upper body.

正因為我們做了這樣的權衡，我們才能在上半身製造出非常強大、非常精確、非常快速的電機。

The company deployed early iterations of its robot with Canadian Tire, completing front and back of store tasks such as picking and packing merchandise.

該公司在加拿大輪胎公司部署了其機器人的早期迭代產品，完成店前和店後的任務，如分揀和包裝商品。

Robots were asked to do everything from greeting people when they come through the door to actually putting things on trucks.

機器人要做的事情很多，從迎接進門的顧客到把東西裝上卡車。

What would you tell those people who, you know, there are certain jobs that might be lost as a result of this?

對於那些可能是以而失去某些工作的人，你會怎麼說？

Actually, we've heard from some of those people and what their jobs start to evolve into is the manager of the robot fleet.

事實上，我們已經聽到了其中一些人的說法，他們的工作開始演變成機器人車隊的管理者。

There are just some jobs that people don't want.

Proponents say a humanoid can help fill those.

支持者認為，仿人機器人可以幫助填補這些空白。

There's about 10 million open jobs in the United States alone.

僅在美國就有約 1,000 萬個空缺職位。

We could build and maintain 10 million of the robots that we're talking about without touching a single job.

我們可以製造和維護 1000 萬個我們所說的機器人，而不涉及任何工作。

If you have to lift sort of 55 pounds somewhere between 50 and 100 times an hour, that's a serious workout.

如果你每小時要舉起 55 磅的重物 50 到 100 次，那就是一項艱鉅的任務。

So we're taking these dirty, dull, and dangerous jobs first.

所以我們要先做這些骯髒、枯燥、危險的工作。

How far away are we from Digit doing your laundry?

我們離迪吉特幫你洗衣服還有多遠？

That's probably more along the lines of, you know, a decade or more.

你知道，這可能需要十年或更長的時間。

Kate, that story looked less like a news story and more like the beginning of, I don't know, like a Hollywood movie.

凱特，這個故事看起來不像是新聞報道，更像是，我不知道，像是好萊塢電影的開頭。

I have so many thoughts, but first off, let's talk about China real quick, because there are some videos like this that I keep seeing that come out of the World AI Conference in Shanghai, and then I'm like, actually, just take a look at this.

我有很多想法，但首先，讓我們快速談談中國，因為我一直看到在上海舉行的世界人工智能大會上有這樣一些視頻，然後我就想，其實，看看這個就知道了。

I mean, I don't, that doesn't look like a great idea, but it shows what they're capable of.

我的意思是，我不認為這是個好主意，但這顯示了他們的能力。

So China really is leading the race, essentially by a mile.

是以，中國在這場競爭中確實處於領先地位，而且基本上是遙遙領先。

So it's kind of ironic in some ways because the U.S. was an early leader.

是以，這在某種程度上具有諷刺意味，因為美國是早期的領導者。

A lot of the innovation early on came out of the U.S., but China right now at this point is the largest installer of industrial robots.

早期的創新很多來自美國，但目前中國是工業機器人的最大安裝國。

It accounts for about half of the global total at this point, according to at least one report.

至少有一份報告稱，目前它約佔全球總量的一半。

One benefit that they've had, and one reason they've been able to pull forward is because it's cheaper.

他們獲得的一個好處，也是他們能夠向前推進的一個原因，就是因為它更便宜。

So it's kind of similar in terms of what you see in electric vehicles, for example, in the same dynamic where they've really been able to do this at a much lower cost so they can spread this out, sell these more easily, and that's really the big dynamic.

是以，這與你在電動汽車上看到的情況有點類似，例如，在同樣的動態下，他們確實能夠以更低的成本做到這一點，是以他們可以將其推廣開來，更容易地銷售這些產品，這確實是一個很大的動態。

對中國來說，成本是最大的收穫。

They've also taken a sort of different path on design.

在設計方面，他們也走了一條與眾不同的道路。

If you looked at some of the videos, they have done a lot more of this realistic facial features.

如果你看過一些視頻，就會發現他們的面部特徵更加逼真。

They've just gone in a totally different direction than a lot of the U.S. companies, which have gone with sort of just the faceless robot, but in China, people are a lot more comfortable with more lifelike interactions, and it really is subjective.

在中國，人們更喜歡栩栩如生的互動，這確實是主觀因素。

Some people say it's creepy, reminds them of Westworld, but they seem a lot more comfortable with that, and that's kind of the direction they're going in China.

有些人說這讓人毛骨悚然，讓他們想起了《西部世界》，但他們似乎對此更得心應手，這也是他們在中國的發展方向。

是啊，我想應該沒有 "不可思議谷 "吧。

It does seem like Tesla is standing its ground, though, showing off Optimus 2.0, if I saw that right.

不過，如果我沒看錯的話，特斯拉似乎正在堅持自己的立場，展示 Optimus 2.0。

Yeah, so Elon Musk has really gone all in on this.

是啊，埃隆-馬斯克在這方面真是下足了功夫。

In a lot of ways, it makes sense because Tesla, as he's described it, is sort of a robotics company, and these cars, as he's described them, are sentient robots on wheels, so the leap from making a car like a Tesla to a humanoid robot, at least in the mind of Musk, it's not a far jump, and so he thinks that this is gonna push Tesla to a $25 trillion market cap, at least according to Elon Musk.

從很多方面來看，這都是有道理的，因為特斯拉，正如他所描述的那樣，是一家機器人公司，而這些汽車，正如他所描述的那樣，是裝在輪子上的有生命的機器人，是以，從製造一輛像特斯拉這樣的汽車到製造一個仿人機器人，至少在馬斯克的心目中，這並不是一個很遠的跨越，是以他認為，這將把特斯拉推向 25 萬億美元的市值，至少埃隆-馬斯克是這麼認為的。

He thinks the majority of the company's long-term value is gonna come from these robots, so he is really going all in on this.

他認為，公司的大部分長期價值都將來自這些機器人，所以他真的是全力以赴。

He's known for these really bold ideas, but a lot of people that also wouldn't bet against him.

他以這些非常大膽的想法而聞名，但很多人也不會和他打賭。

Yeah, it's all fun and games until you go from riding in a Tesla to, I don't know, your kids riding on the back of an Optimus.

是啊，這一切都很有趣，直到你從坐特斯拉變成，我不知道，你的孩子坐在擎天柱的背上。

這似乎是一個非常狂野的未來。

I also saw that China has put together their first set of regulations on humanoids.

我還看到，中國已經制定了第一套關於人形機器人的法規。

It's so weird to talk about humanoids, but when it comes to humanoid legislation, what could it look like here in the United States?

談論類人猿真是太奇怪了，但說到類人猿立法，美國會是什麼樣子呢？

So regulation, it's similar to what you see in AI.

是以，監管與您在人工智能領域看到的情況類似。

There's really no international standards.