We're not going to let China flood our market.

我們不會讓中國充斥我們的市場。

Sound familiar?

聽起來耳熟嗎？

There has to be a level playing field for American companies competing in China.

在中國競爭的美國公司必須有一個公平的競爭環境。

In the early 2000s, Chinese factories like this one pumped out clothes and flags and cars.

本世紀初，像這樣的中國工廠生產服裝、旗幟和汽車。

The sticker prices were cheap.

貼紙價格很便宜。

But there was another price to be paid — American jobs.

但還有另一個代價，那就是美國的就業機會。

Every single employee of this plant will be out of work by January.

到一月份，這家工廠的所有員工都將失業。

15 years and almost 6 million jobs later, economists are debating what price another wave of imports could exact from American workers.

15 年過去了，近 600 萬個工作崗位過去了，經濟學家們還在爭論另一波進口浪潮會讓美國工人付出怎樣的代價。

But two key differences between then and now may have a new effect on the U.S. economy.

但是，當時與現在的兩個關鍵差異可能會對美國經濟產生新的影響。

Look at this line before 2001.

看看 2001 年之前的這一行。

American manufacturing employed over 17 million people, making toys, furniture, paper goods, and much more.

美國製造業僱用了 1700 多萬人，生產玩具、傢俱、紙製品等。

Then word began to circulate that China was joining the World Trade Organization.

隨後，中國加入世界貿易組織的消息開始流傳。

And here's when it did.

這就是當時的情況。

Joining the WTO meant China faced fewer tariffs and restrictions from its trading partners.

加入世貿組織意味著中國面臨的來自貿易伙伴的關稅和限制減少了。

And the result was dubbed the China shock.

其結果被稱為 "中國震盪"。

Those industries were competing with much, much cheaper products made in China and shipped over to the United States.

這些行業正在與中國製造並運往美國的便宜得多的產品競爭。

Consumers were very sensitive to price on things like furniture, so they started buying lots of cheaper furniture that was much the same as the stuff they could get made by American factories.

消費者對傢俱等物品的價格非常敏感，是以他們開始購買大量便宜的傢俱，而這些傢俱與美國工廠生產的產品大同小異。

And that industry in the United States has been decimated.

而美國的這一產業已被摧毀殆盡。

Almost 2.5 million Americans lost their jobs from 2000 to 2007.

從 2000 年到 2007 年，近 250 萬美國人失去了工作。

They're represented by the blue on this map.

地圖上的藍色就是它們的代表。

Look at this dark blue area here.

看這裡的深藍色區域。

That's Silicon Valley, where companies like Apple, HP, and Cisco used to manufacture goods.

這就是硅谷，蘋果、惠普和思科等公司曾經在這裡生產產品。

After 2001, they moved most of their production to China, causing a 50-plus percent drop in manufacturing jobs in the county.

2001 年後，他們將大部分生產轉移到中國，導致該縣製造業工作崗位減少了 50%以上。

This other dark blue county, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, lost 46 percent of their manufacturing jobs, primarily in furniture and machinery.

另一個深藍色的縣--愛荷華州的錫達拉皮茲，則失去了 46% 的製造業工作崗位，主要集中在傢俱和機械行業。

But this lighter blue region here was largely spared.

但是，這裡的淺藍色區域卻基本倖免於難。

It's called Auto Alley.

它叫汽車巷。

The main reason it succeeded, where, say, Silicon Valley's manufacturing failed, is due to investment from competitors like Japan.

硅谷製造業失敗的主要原因是來自日本等競爭對手的投資。

Japan started to build a lot more factories in the United States to make cars that it would then sell to American consumers.

日本開始在美國建造更多的工廠，生產汽車，然後銷售給美國消費者。

So you didn't have the problem of imports displacing American workers because American workers could find jobs at these new factories.

是以，你不存在進口產品取代美國工人的問題，因為美國工人可以在這些新工廠找到工作。

And the auto industry survived and flourished in the United States.

汽車工業在美國得以生存並蓬勃發展。

Over the next few decades, American manufacturing jobs shifted away from making low-cost items like crayons to high-cost items like these planes.

在接下來的幾十年裡，美國製造業的工作崗位從蠟筆等低成本物品的製造轉向了這些飛機等高成本物品的製造。

But the sectors that were hit were hit hard.

但是，受到衝擊的部門卻遭受了重創。

As of 2024, 5.7 million jobs have been lost.

截至 2024 年，將失去 570 萬個工作崗位。

But the rise in Chinese manufacturing wasn't the only reason for these job losses.

但是，中國製造業的崛起並不是這些工作崗位減少的唯一原因。

Automation and advances in technology mean modern factories need far fewer workers than they used to.

自動化和技術進步意味著現代工廠所需的工人比過去少得多。

Now, U.S. companies are investing in manufacturing in cars, semiconductors and renewable energy in the States, in part to compete with China.

現在，美國公司正在美國投資生產汽車、半導體和可再生能源，部分原因是為了與中國競爭。

China is competing in all those.

中國正在參與所有這些領域的競爭。

And it's important to note they're competing in all those, but also still totally dominate every other bit of manufacturing.

值得注意的是，它們在所有這些領域都在競爭，但在其他所有制造業領域仍然完全佔據主導地位。

That's why the U.S. is threatening to raise trade barriers, which increase the price of foreign goods, like...

這就是為什麼美國威脅要提高貿易壁壘，從而提高外國商品的價格，比如...

A 100% tariff on electric vehicles made in China.

對中國製造的電動汽車徵收 100% 的關稅。

People say, wow.

人們會說，哇。

Well, the idea of raising tariffs to prevent job losses is you make the products that are coming into the country less competitive, so more expensive, than the ones that they produce.

那麼，提高關稅以防止失業的想法是，你讓進入該國的產品競爭力降低，是以比他們生產的產品更貴。

And so consumers will choose the locally made products over the more expensive foreign-made ones.

是以，消費者會選擇在地製造的產品，而不是價格更高的外國製造的產品。

When it works, it can save jobs.

當它發揮作用時，就能挽救工作崗位。

But it can also keep prices high, meaning consumers wouldn't get the benefits of free trade that they saw in the early 2000s.

但它也會使價格居高不下，這意味著消費者無法從自由貿易中獲得 2000 年代初所看到的好處。

So the price of all sorts of things fell.

於是，各種東西的價格都下跌了。

Price of electronics, the price of furniture, the price of clothes, everything got cheaper.

電子產品的價格、傢俱的價格、衣服的價格，一切都變得更便宜了。

Inflation basically disappeared for 10 or 15 years because of this huge wave of cheap stuff coming from China.

由於中國大量廉價商品的湧入，通貨膨脹基本上消失了 10 年或 15 年。

So for regular Americans, for consumers, it was pretty good, right?

是以，對於普通美國人和消費者來說，這很不錯，對嗎？

Now, officials have to balance incentivizing locally made products with the risk of restricting market competition and increasing inflation, which is already rising faster than the Fed's target.

現在，官員們必須在激勵在地製造的產品與限制市場競爭和增加通脹的風險之間取得平衡，而通脹的上升速度已經超過了美聯儲的目標。

We've just had a spell of extremely high and extremely painful inflation in many economies.

在許多經濟體中，我們剛剛經歷了一段極高且極其痛苦的通脹時期。

So why not embrace the fact that you can get lots of stuff very cheaply for China?

所以，為什麼不接受這樣一個事實：你可以用非常便宜的價格在中國買到很多東西？

While some economists applaud the benefits to consumers, others worry about the bigger implications of this shock.

雖然一些經濟學家對消費者獲得的好處表示讚賞，但也有人擔心這種衝擊會帶來更大的影響。

This time around, it is definitely industries that are very important to the U.S. economy, very important to all advanced economies, the way they think about themselves.

這一次，肯定是對美國經濟非常重要的行業，對所有發達經濟體都非常重要的行業，是它們思考自身的方式。

That's the big difference for me, is that this one kind of affects every sector of manufacturing and is totally global.

對我來說，這就是最大的不同之處，因為它影響到製造業的每一個部門，而且是完全全球性的。