But in this crucial first week after the debate, the president's delivery was just as focused as his words.

但在辯論結束後至關重要的第一週，總統的講話和他的言辭一樣重點突出。

No one, no one is above the law, not even the president of the United States.

沒有人可以凌駕於法律之上，即使是美國總統也不例外。

But today's Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity, that fundamentally changed.

但今天最高法院關於總統豁免權的判決，從根本上改變了這一點。

For all, for all practical purposes, today's decision almost certainly means that there are virtually no limits on what a president can do.

總之，就所有實際目的而言，今天的決定幾乎肯定意味著總統的行為幾乎沒有任何限制。

This is a fundamentally new principle, and it's a dangerous precedent, because the power of the office will no longer be constrained by the law, even including the Supreme Court of the United States.

這是一個全新的原則，也是一個危險的先例，因為該職位的權力將不再受法律約束，甚至包括美國最高法院。

Of course, it all comes down to what the voters think.

當然，這一切都取決於選民的想法。

CNN's David Chalian is here to break it down.

美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）的戴維-查裡安（David Chalian）將為您詳細解讀。

Show us the numbers from this new poll.

給我們看看這次新民意調查的數據。

Yeah, this was fielded entirely after our debate, as you noted.

是的，正如你所指出的，這完全是在我們的辯論之後進行的。

And I think there are some data points in here that the Biden campaign will use to try and push back on some of this Democratic concern.

我認為拜登的競選團隊會利用其中的一些數據來反擊民主黨的擔憂。

And I think there are some data points in here that those elected officials and donors who were concerned about Biden moving forward will use to push back on the president.

我認為這裡面有一些數據，那些擔心拜登繼續前進的民選官員和捐贈者會利用這些數據來反擊總統。

Take a look overall at the state of the race in our brand new poll.

在我們全新的民意調查中，您將看到競選的整體狀況。

Forty nine percent Donald Trump, forty three percent Joe Biden.

唐納德-特朗普佔49%，喬-拜登佔43%。

This is a six point lead, Dana, and this is unchanged, unchanged since our last poll in April.

領先優勢為6個百分點，達納，與4月份的上次民調相比沒有變化。

In fact, it's been a remarkably consistent race with Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump just outside the margin of error for quite some time.

事實上，喬-拜登在相當長的一段時間裡一直在誤差範圍之外落後於唐納德-特朗普，這是一場非常穩定的競選。

If you look back in our trend here, you see it was identical in April, 49-43.

如果你回顧一下我們的趨勢，你會發現四月份的結果是一樣的，49:43。

You see nothing has really changed since last August.

你看，自去年八月以來，一切都沒有真正改變。

By last fall, this race is kind of locked into place.

到去年秋天，這場比賽就已經鎖定了勝局。

That's remarkable to look at that, even just from April to now, exactly the same.

即使從四月份到現在，情況也完全一樣。

Identical.

相同。

And the Biden campaign will say to folks, see, the debate didn't change the state of the race.

拜登的競選團隊會對人們說 辯論並沒有改變競選形勢

Of course, when you're six points down, you kind of needed the debate to change the state of the race.

當然，當你落後 6 個百分點時，你需要辯論來改變比賽的狀態。

You were I was talking about what was locked in here.

我說的是鎖在這裡的東西。

So 65 percent of the electorate say their mind is made up.

是以，65% 的選民表示他們心意已決。

If your mind is made up in this poll, you're splitting 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Biden.

如果您在這次民調中已經下定決心，那麼您將有53%的人支持特朗普，45%的人支持拜登。

However, 31 percent of voters in the poll say they are movable.

不過，在民意調查中，有 31% 的選民表示他們是可移動的。

Either they don't have a first choice or they're not locked in.

要麼他們沒有首選，要麼他們沒有鎖定。

They're willing to move off of who they're saying their choice is right now. 31 percent of the electorate's movable.

他們願意放棄現在的選擇31%的選民是可以改變的

They split more evenly, 39 percent for Trump, 37 percent for Biden.

他們的支持率較為平均，39% 的人支持特朗普，37% 的人支持拜登。

Obviously, Joe Biden needs to be working on this movable crowd of nearly a third of the electorate, whether those that don't have a choice or actually with Trump right now, but could move to improve his standing.

很明顯，喬-拜登需要在近三分之一的選民中開展工作，不管是那些沒有選擇的人，還是那些現在實際上支持特朗普，但可以採取行動提高自己地位的人。

And talk about what is driving the voters on these numbers.

並談談這些數字對選民的推動作用。

This is going to be welcome news to Biden because the race is still largely about Donald Trump as the motivating factor, right?

這對拜登來說將是個好消息，因為競選的動力主要還是唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump），對嗎？

Even after the debate, this is among Biden supporters, Dana.

即使在辯論結束後，拜登的支持者中也有這樣的人，丹娜。

What would your vote be more to vote against Trump or for Biden?

投票反對特朗普還是支持拜登？

Sixty three percent say against Trump, 37 percent say for Biden.

63%的人反對特朗普，37%的人支持拜登。

And I will say this 37 is actually a slight improvement for Biden, where a bit more of his voters are saying they're actually voting for him.

我要說的是，拜登的票數在37票中略有上升，有更多的選民表示會投票給他。

But overall, the thrust for Biden supporters is they want to vote against Trump, not for Biden.

但總體而言，拜登支持者的主旨是希望投票反對特朗普，而不是支持拜登。

It's the complete reversal for Trump supporters.

這完全顛覆了特朗普支持者的想法。

Two thirds of Trump supporters are casting their ballot for Donald Trump.

三分之二的特朗普支持者將選票投給了唐納德-特朗普。

Thirty four percent say they're casting against Joe Biden.

34%的人表示他們反對喬-拜登。

Again, we see a slight uptick here for Trump among those voting for him, too.

在這裡，我們再次看到特朗普在投票給他的人中也略有上升。

So we're seeing both Trump and Biden sort of consolidate their fellow partisans.

是以，我們看到特朗普和拜登都在拉攏自己的黨友。

What about the debate performance?

辯論表現如何？

Let's talk about that, because we really want to know what voters thought and whether the debate performance actually impacted how they perceive Joe Biden.

讓我們來談談這個問題，因為我們真的很想知道選民們是怎麼想的，辯論的表現是否真的影響了他們對喬-拜登的看法。

Yeah, I mean, overall in this poll, we see that people say Donald Trump won the debate.

是的，我的意思是，總體而言，在這次民調中，我們看到人們認為唐納德-特朗普贏得了辯論。

We saw that in our instant poll on the night of the debate among debate watchers.

我們在辯論當晚對辯論觀看者進行的即時民意調查中看到了這一點。

That's true broadly with the electorate.

選民的情況大致如此。

But take a look at these numbers.

但請看看這些數字。

And this is going to keep the conversation going inside the Democratic Party.

這將使民主黨內部的對話繼續下去。

Nearly three fourths of American voters say someone else, not Joe Biden, should give would give Democrats their best chance if they were at the top of the ticket.

近四分之三的美國選民表示，如果不是喬-拜登（Joe Biden），而是其他人，那麼民主黨人將獲得最佳機會。

Only 25 percent of voters say Joe Biden gives Democrats their best chance of winning in November.

只有 25% 的選民認為喬-拜登是民主黨人在 11 月獲勝的最佳人選。

And take a look at these numbers.

再看看這些數字。

Joe Biden's approval rating is down to 36 percent in this poll.

在這次民調中，喬-拜登的支持率降至 36%。

That is his lowest approval rating of his entire presidency in CNN polling, his lowest number nearly four months out from the election.

在 CNN 的民調中，這是他整個總統任期內支持率最低的一次，也是距離大選還有近四個月的時間裡支持率最低的一次。

That's not welcome news for any incumbent.

這對任何現任者來說都不是好消息。

And we tested what would it look like if Vice President Kamala Harris was in a matchup against Donald Trump and not Joe Biden?

我們還測試瞭如果副總統卡馬拉-哈里斯的對手是唐納德-特朗普而不是喬-拜登，情況會怎樣？

And the vice president actually does a little bit better against Trump than Joe Biden does.

實際上，副總統在與特朗普的對抗中比喬-拜登表現得更好一些。

She pulls the race within margin of error.

她將比賽拖入誤差範圍之內。

No clear leader.

沒有明確的領導者。

Donald Trump at 47, Kamala Harris at 45 percent.

唐納德-特朗普為 47%，卡馬拉-哈里斯為 45%。

We also tested Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer.

我們還測試了加文-紐森（Gavin Newsom）、皮特-巴蒂吉格（Pete Buttigieg）和格雷琴-惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）。

You see here those Democrats, they kind of perform like Joe Biden.

你看那些民主黨人，他們的表現有點像喬-拜登。

Donald Trump is beating them right now outside the margin of error.

唐納德-特朗普現在正在誤差範圍之外擊敗他們。

Only Kamala Harris in this poll of these Democrats tested is getting this race within the margin of error.

在這次民調中，只有卡馬拉-哈里斯（Kamala Harris）在誤差範圍內。

All right, David Pouf, I'm over here now.

好了，大衛-普夫，我現在在這裡。

I will see you here in a minute.

我們一會兒在這裡見。

Thank you so much for all of that.

非常感謝你們所做的一切。

Very, very interesting reporting from our poll.

我們的民意調查報告非常非常有趣。

Let's talk about more about all of this with my great group of reporters, the Washington Post's Yasmeen Abu-Talib, CNN's Eva McKend, and Olivier Knox of U.S.

讓我們和我的幾位記者，《華盛頓郵報》的亞斯明-阿布-塔利卜、CNN的伊娃-麥肯德以及美國之音的奧利維爾-諾克斯，來進一步談談這一切。

News.

新聞

Again, David will be here in a moment.

再說一遍，戴維馬上就來。

Olivier, I want to start with you, your sort of takeaway from these numbers that David just revealed.

奧利維爾，我想從你開始，談談你對戴維剛剛透露的這些數字的看法。

Well, I have two thoughts.

我有兩個想法。

The first is I have not seen the Democratic Party this agitated and in this much of a panic since 1998, early 1998, when the Lewinsky scandal erupted.

首先，自 1998 年萊溫斯基醜聞爆發以來，我從未見過民主黨如此激動和恐慌。

Wow.

哇

And we saw prominent Democrats saying that Bill Clinton should resign, right?

我們看到著名的民主黨人說比爾-克林頓應該辭職，對嗎？

That didn't happen.

這並沒有發生。

And Democrats did just fine in those midterms that year.

而民主黨在當年的中期選舉中表現出色。

The second thought I have is that we really should be polling the four or so states that are actually going to decide this election.

我的第二個想法是，我們確實應該對真正將決定此次選舉的四個左右的州進行民調。

We will.

我們將

If 24, I'm sure you will.

如果是 24，我相信你會的。

But if 24 goes the way 20 and 16 went, we're talking about tens of thousands of voters in a handful of states.

但是，如果 24 票的結果與 20 票和 16 票的結果一樣，那麼我們所說的就是少數幾個州的數萬名選民。

And so my theory of the case is that literally any issue can swing this election.

所以我的理論是，任何問題都有可能左右這次選舉。

I think that this is certainly instructive, but I think that the most telling thing will really to be continuing to talk to voters.

我認為這無疑具有啟發性，但我認為最能說明問題的是繼續與選民交談。

I was in conversation with some of them this weekend.

本週末，我與他們中的一些人進行了交談。

There was a rally here in D.C. in support of low-wage workers.

華盛頓特區舉行了支持低工資工人的集會。

And I thought that there would be more pushback after the debate performance.

我還以為辯論結束後會有更多的反彈。

I thought that they would raise issues with a whole number of things concerning President Biden, because this is really the left flank of the coalition.

我以為他們會就拜登總統的一系列事情提出問題，因為這確實是聯盟的左翼。

And instead, it was the exact opposite.

結果卻恰恰相反。

They really rallied around him.

他們真的團結在他周圍。

They said that all of the response was not fair.

他們說，所有的答覆都不公平。

They seem to take a really pragmatic response to all of this and say, listen, he's ultimately going to be our nominee.

他們似乎對這一切採取了非常務實的態度，他們說，聽著，他最終會成為我們的提名人。

The alternative is former President Trump.

另一個選擇是前總統特朗普。

And we're going to stand by him through this difficult period.

我們將支持他渡過難關。

David, I'm going to move on to some of the things that are going on in the Democratic Party with regard to the debate.

戴維，接下來我想談談民主黨內有關辯論的一些情況。

But is there anything else that you really want to emphasize, your big picture takeaway from everything you just gave us?

但你還有什麼想強調的？

Well, I think the biggest thing here is Joe Biden is not on track to win this race right now.

我認為最大的問題是，喬-拜登現在並不在贏得競選的軌道上。

And he needed a debate performance that was going to upend the trajectory of the race.

他需要一場能夠顛覆競選軌跡的辯論表演。

That did not happen here.

這裡沒有發生這種情況。

I mean, inside these numbers of him being six points down from Donald Trump is that he's down 10 points among independent voters.

我的意思是，在他比唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）落後6個百分點的這些數據中，他在獨立選民中落後了10個百分點。

Obviously, that was not the case four years ago when he won the race nationally by four percentage points.

顯然，四年前的情況並非如此，當時他以四個百分點的優勢贏得了全國競選。

So if this is what the result is, that would be a 10 point swing in the other direction.

是以，如果結果是這樣的話，那就是向另一個方向搖擺了 10 個百分點。

It's notable that Kamala Harris's performance with independent voters in this poll, she's almost even with Trump.

值得注意的是，卡馬拉-哈里斯在此次民調中在獨立選民中的表現幾乎與特朗普持平。

Biden's 10 points down with independent voters.

拜登在獨立選民中落後10個百分點。

All right.

好的

So I mentioned I want to talk about kind of the what's going on behind the scenes with regard to Democrats and the Biden campaign and something that went from behind the scenes to on TV this morning, which is an interview with our colleague Casey Hunt.

所以我提到，我想談談民主黨和拜登競選的幕後情況，以及今天上午從幕後到電視上的一些事情，這是我們的同事凱西-亨特（Casey Hunt）接受採訪的內容。

Mike Quigley, the congressman, said the following.

國會議員邁克-奎格利（Mike Quigley）發表瞭如下講話。

His four years are one of the great presidencies of our lifetime.

他的四年是我們一生中最偉大的總統任期之一。

But I think he has to be honest with himself.

但我認為他必須對自己誠實。

This is a decision he's going to have to make.

這是他必須做出的決定。

He clearly has to understand.

他顯然必須明白。

I think what you're getting to here is that his decision not only impacts who's going to serve in the White House the next four years, but who's going to serve in the Senate, who's going to serve in the House.

我認為你的意思是，他的決定不僅會影響未來四年誰將入主白宮，還會影響誰將入主參議院，誰將入主眾議院。

And it will have implications for decades to come.

這將對未來幾十年產生影響。

It's his decision.

這是他的決定。

I just want him to appreciate at this time just how much it impacts not just his race, but all the other races coming in November.

我只是想讓他明白，此時此刻，這不僅對他的競選有多大影響，而且對 11 月即將舉行的所有其他競選也有多大影響。

Now, what's notable about that isn't what he said.

現在，值得注意的不是他說了什麼。

It's that he said it in public.

是他在公開場合說的。

We have all talked to people who have said that and much more in private, but they have been kept at bay by the Biden campaign.

我們都曾與一些人交談過，他們私下裡都這麼說，而且說得更多，但拜登的競選團隊一直不讓他們說。

He decided he wanted to say that publicly.

他決定要公開說出這句話。

Yeah, I mean, I think this is really what has the potential to maybe swing the conversation in a more public way from sort of pundits and columnists to more Democratic elected officials who may start to call for there to be another nominee.

是的，我的意思是，我認為這才是真正有可能以一種更公開的方式改變對話，從學者和專欄作家到更多的民主黨民選官員，他們可能會開始呼籲有另一個提名人。

The Biden campaign will point to polls like today's to say it didn't change the race.

拜登的競選團隊會拿今天這樣的民調說事，認為這並沒有改變選情。

I think that's a bit of a problem because, like David said, they needed to change the dynamics of the race.

我認為這有點問題，因為正如戴維所說，他們需要改變比賽的態勢。

Being six points down is not an especially strong argument.

落後六分並不是一個特別有力的論據。

But if polls show that Senate candidates, House candidates are now at risk of losing their races more than they were before because they're being dragged down by Biden.

但如果民調顯示，參議院候選人、眾議院候選人因為受到拜登的拖累，現在比以前更有可能輸掉競選。

And this was a concern well before the debate that a lot of people didn't want to in tough districts and tough states didn't want to campaign with Biden, didn't want to appear at events with him.

早在辯論之前，很多人就擔心，在艱難的選區和艱難的州，很多人不願意和拜登一起競選，不願意和他一起出席活動。

If now it looks like Democrats are at a bigger risk of not being able to flip the House, losing the Senate, then I think that could really start to change the public conversation.

如果現在看起來民主黨面臨無法翻轉眾議院、失去參議院的更大風險，那麼我認為這將真正開始改變公眾的對話。