Name: 如果您是特斯拉股東....GET READY (If you are a Tesla shareholder….GET READY)
Uploaded: 2024-07-02T16:22:52.000Z
Duration: 9 min 48 s

程度副詞

Folks, we have some mind-blowing Tesla updates, absolutely insane, you want to hear this.

朋友們，我們有一些令人震驚的特斯拉最新消息，絕對瘋狂，你們一定想聽聽。

No doubt it's been a rough ride for the past few months, but today is a good day to be a Tesla shareholder.

毫無疑問，過去幾個月特斯拉的發展可謂一波三折，但今天是特斯拉股東的好日子。

Two things have happened over the past 2 days, give or take, that absolutely blows Tesla out of the water.

在過去的兩天裡，發生了兩件讓特斯拉大跌眼鏡的事情。

On the one hand, ARK Invest came out about 2 days ago and released a new price target for Tesla for 2029, a whole new model, and it absolutely is insane.

一方面，ARK Invest 大約兩天前發佈了特斯拉 2029 年的新目標價格，這是一個全新的模型，絕對是瘋了。

On the other hand, yesterday, the shareholders of Tesla did what they had to do, which is approve both the Elon pay package and the move away from Delaware to Texas.

另一方面，昨天，特斯拉的股東們做了他們必須做的事情，即準許了埃隆的薪酬方案和從特拉華州遷往德克薩斯州的計劃。

So let's start with the shareholder vote, which is absolutely a massive event.

我們先從股東投票說起，這絕對是一件大事。

Now a while ago, we had a court that basically threw out Elon's 2018 pay package.

前不久，法院基本上駁回了埃隆 2018 年的薪酬方案。

Now the court and the specific judge, they grabbed on to some sort of a technicality, but at the end of the day, it was very clear that this got thrown out because the specific judge thought it was unfair, because it was excessive.

現在，法院和具體的法官，他們抓住了某種技術上的問題，但最後，很明顯，這被扔掉了，因為具體的法官認為這是不公平的，因為它是過度的。

Now I remind you, we don't live in a communist country, and this was approved by the shareholders, this was approved by a board of very sophisticated individuals like Larry Ellison, a lot of smart people voted for this in 2018, and yet the court of Delaware found it a really good idea to intervene and cancel this, like something you would have seen from a communist court in China or in USSR.

現在我提醒你們，我們不是生活在一個共產主義國家，這是由股東準許的，這是由拉里-埃裡森（Larry Ellison）這樣一個非常成熟的人組成的董事會準許的，很多聰明人在 2018 年都投了贊成票，但特拉華州法院卻認為這是一個非常好的主意，要進行干預並取消這一決定，就像你們在中國或蘇聯的共產主義法庭上看到的那樣。

Nevertheless, Elon Musk took it in stride, and he basically said, you know what, bet.

儘管如此，埃隆-馬斯克還是泰然處之，他基本上是說："你知道嗎，打賭吧。

I'm going to move my company to Texas, where this sort of thing can't happen because the Delaware court is out of control, and I'm going to put up a brand new pay package of $56 billion to my current shareholders.

我要把我的公司搬到德克薩斯州，因為特拉華州的法院已經失控，在那裡這種事情是不可能發生的，而且我要向我現在的股東們提供 560 億美元的全新薪酬方案。

And they'll approve it because they understand it's not only fair, it's not only contractually binding, it's in their best interest to do so.

他們會準許，因為他們知道這樣做不僅公平，不僅有合同約束力，而且符合他們的最大利益。

In fact, if Elon Musk would have come out with a completely brand new pay package that had nothing to do with the 2018 stuff, and just said, hey, you know what, I want $56 billion because I've done everything for this company for the past five years, and I brought it to greatness, more shareholders would have agreed.

事實上，如果埃隆-馬斯克提出一個全新的薪酬方案，與 2018 年的事情毫無關係，只是說，嘿，你知道嗎，我想要 560 億美元，因為過去五年我為這家公司做了一切，我把它帶向了輝煌，那麼會有更多股東同意的。

Now, at the end of the day, and I want to extend my thanks to the great Alexander Merz for mobilizing the troops here, at the end of the day, this was a no-brainer.

最後，我要感謝偉大的亞歷山大-梅爾茲，他在這裡調動了大部隊。

Forget the counter arguments about the contractual law, about the fact that they had a binding shareholder resolution, a binding board approval, and all that stuff.

先不說那些關於合同法的反駁，也不說他們已經通過了具有約束力的股東決議、具有約束力的董事會準許等等。

At the end of the day, at the end of the day, it's very, very simple.

說到底，說到底，事情非常非常簡單。

Tesla, in its current juncture, needs Elon more than ever.

在當前的關頭，特斯拉比以往任何時候都更需要埃隆。

They want Elon to be absolutely focused, laser focused on Tesla, taking away his pay package, taking away his stock, because this is all about options, taking away his ability to control what's going on at Tesla.

他們希望埃隆絕對專注於特斯拉，剝奪他的薪酬福利，剝奪他的股票，因為這一切都與期權有關，剝奪他控制特斯拉發展的能力。

All of this would have diverted his attention away from Tesla into other projects, which is the one thing no Tesla shareholder wants.

所有這些都會把他的注意力從特斯拉轉移到其他項目上，而這正是特斯拉股東所不希望看到的。

In fact, the guy who sued was a guy with nine shares.

事實上，起訴的人是一個擁有 9 股股份的人。

The lawyers are asking for billions, and this whole thing was just a legal mumbo-jumbo.

律師們索要數十億美元，而整件事只是法律上的胡言亂語。

At the end of the day, the shareholders absolutely saw it for what it is, a complete no-brainer.

說到底，股東們絕對看清了它的本質，這是一個完全不費吹灰之力的項目。

They voted for, and then Elon Musk was asked on Twitter, hey, Elon, now that this was approved in a massive landslide, because the gap was absolutely insane, everybody voted for, with the exception of a few morons.

他們投了贊成票，然後埃隆-馬斯克在推特上被問到："嘿，埃隆，現在這個項目以壓倒性的優勢通過了，因為差距絕對是瘋狂的，除了幾個白痴，所有人都投了贊成票。

But basically, after that happened, Omar came on Twitter, sorry, on X, and he basically asked Elon Musk, you know, Elon, now that this has passed, and it's settled, will you make Tesla the most valuable company in the world?

但基本上，事情發生後，奧馬爾在推特上，抱歉，在X上，基本上是問埃隆-馬斯克，你知道，埃隆，現在事情已經過去了，塵埃落定，你會讓特斯拉成為世界上最有價值的公司嗎？

Now, I personally would not bet against Elon when he makes statements like this, and I think he's proven it in the past, he's definitely capable of doing so.

現在，當埃隆發表這樣的言論時，我個人不會與他對賭，我認為他在過去已經證明了這一點，他絕對有能力做到這一點。

I think that this puts to bed, and rest in peace, the whole counter-argument about the Tesla key man risk, Elon going outside of Tesla to develop some new AI, the whole Tesla FUD is cleared.

我認為，特斯拉關鍵人物的風險、埃隆走出特斯拉去開發新的人工智能、整個特斯拉的謬論都不攻自破了。

The dude is now all in on Tesla, as he should have been, as he always were, and the shareholders did the right thing.

這位老兄現在全心投入特斯拉，這是他應該做的，也是他一貫的作風，而股東們也做了正確的事情。

為了他們，為了他，也為了公司。

This opens up an opportunity to get a lot more institutional shareholders into Tesla.

這為更多機構股東加入特斯拉提供了機會。

Now that there's no more uncertainty, at least not as much as before, now that that risk is gone, you will see a lot more institutional participation in Tesla, which will drive the price of the stock up.

現在不確定性已經不存在了，至少不像以前那麼多了，既然風險已經消失，你會看到更多的機構參與特斯拉，這將推動股價上漲。

Voting no on this would have not just been unjust, it would have hurt the company, and their shareholders in a very detrimental way.

對此投反對票不僅是不公正的，而且會對公司及其股東造成非常不利的傷害。

I don't think that people even understand on the street what this deal was.

我認為，在大街上，人們甚至都不知道這筆交易是什麼。

It wasn't about Elon getting $56 billion in cash, that was never the deal.

這與埃隆獲得 560 億美元現金無關，這根本就不是交易的目的。

By the way, he still has to spend $7 billion to buy these options of the company, but those options will give him voting rights and control over what happens in Tesla.

順便說一句，他仍需花費 70 億美元購買公司的這些期權，但這些期權將賦予他投票權，並控制特斯拉的發展。

When the guy sold PayPal with a couple hundred millions in the bank, he could have just retired, but instead he chose to buy a rocket company and an electric vehicle company.

這傢伙賣掉 PayPal 時，銀行裡有幾億存款，他本可以退休，但他卻選擇收購了一家火箭公司和一家電動汽車公司。

Back in those days, that's financial suicide, and yet he did it because he thought it was cool.

在那個年代，這簡直就是經濟自殺，但他還是這麼做了，因為他覺得這樣很酷。

He's not really financially driven like that.

He wants to control over Tesla, and now that he has it, all hell will break loose.

他想控制特斯拉，而現在他已經控制了特斯拉，一切都會失控。

I think we'll see $200 soon, and I think we'll see $250 quite soon as well, and a lot of the haters, the doubters, and the bears are about to have some really, really bad weeks.

我認為我們很快就會看到 200 美元，我認為我們也很快就會看到 250 美元，很多憎恨者、懷疑者和低迷的市場即將迎來非常非常糟糕的幾周。

Now, as far as the ARK Invest new model that just came out.

至於方舟投資公司剛剛推出的新型號。

ARK Invest just released a new five-year price target for Tesla, a whole new model.

ARK Invest 剛剛發佈了特斯拉的新五年目標價，這是一個全新的模型。

Now, basically, they have three cases here.

現在，他們基本上有三種情況。

Medium case, $2,600, and bear case, $2,000, meaning that Tesla is 1,600% upside in the bull case, 1,300% upside in the medium case, and 1,000% in the bear case.

中位情況下為 2,600 美元，低迷的市場情況下為 2,000 美元，這意味著特斯拉在牛市情況下有 1,600% 的上漲空間，在中位情況下有 1,300% 的上漲空間，在低迷的市場情況下有 1,000% 的上漲空間。

Basically, the model has a few assumptions, and the assumptions are very simple.

基本上，該模型有幾個假設，而這些假設非常簡單。

The main assumption is that 90% of the business in five years is not going to be from selling vehicles.

主要的假設是，五年內 90% 的業務將不會來自銷售汽車。

它將來自自動駕駛計程車業務。

ARK Invest believes that within two years, the robo-taxis will launch and will become a pivotal part of Tesla, in fact, overtaking the EV sales as they are right now.

ARK Invest 認為，兩年內，機器人計程車將推出，並將成為特斯拉舉足輕重的一部分，事實上，其銷量將超過目前的電動汽車銷量。

EV sales are projected to be 10% of the business in 2029, just to show you how big they think robo-taxi will be.

預計到 2029 年，電動汽車的銷量將佔到業務量的 10%，這只是為了告訴你，他們認為機器人計程車的規模會有多大。

It doesn't mean Tesla won't sell electric vehicles.

這並不意味著特斯拉不會銷售電動汽車。

Based on this model, Tesla sells 5.8 million in the bear case and 14.5 million vehicles per year on the bull case in 2029.

根據這一模型，2029 年特斯拉的低迷的市場年銷量為 580 萬輛，牛市年銷量為 1 450 萬輛。

As far as the gross margin, that is supposed to go up to the 50s EBITDA from 17% to 32%.

至於毛利率，應該會從 17% 上升到 32%，達到 EBITDA 的 50%。

And basically, Tesla will become either an $11 trillion company in the max bull case or $7 trillion company in the bear case.

基本上，在最大牛市情況下，特斯拉將成為一家價值 11 萬億美元的公司；在低迷的市場情況下，特斯拉將成為一家價值 7 萬億美元的公司。

Now, they do think that the robo-taxi is a major pivotal point of this model.

現在，他們確實認為，機器人計程車是這一模式的主要關鍵點。

But they did say, hey, if robo-taxi for whatever reason doesn't happen, this company is going to be worth $350 in five years, which means double than the current share price, which means 100% in five years, which means way above the S&P 500 in the bear, bear, bear case.

但他們確實說過，嘿，不管出於什麼原因，如果自動駕駛計程車沒有出現，這家公司五年後的價值將達到 350 美元，這意味著比目前的股價高出一倍，這意味著五年後股價將上漲 100%，這意味著在低迷的市場、低迷的市場、低迷的市場的情況下，股價將遠遠高於標準普爾 500 指數。

Now, they are adding miles 110 times faster and way more, which is a very distant second.

現在，他們增加里程的速度是原來的 110 倍，遠遠超過了原來的水準。

And the craziest part about this model is what was excluded from it.

而這個模型最瘋狂的地方在於，它排除了什麼。

In fact, with the exception of Optimus and Energy, which was taken just as a minor consideration, it does not include whatsoever FSD licensing.

事實上，除了 "擎天柱 "和 "能源"（這只是一個次要的考慮因素）之外，它不包括任何消 防許可。

ARK Invest is telling you that without FSD licensing, which I think is the next catalyst for Tesla, by the way, not robo-taxi, without FSD licensing, this is a $7 to $11 trillion company.

ARK 投資公司告訴你，如果沒有 FSD 許可，我認為這是特斯拉的下一個催化劑，順便說一下，不是機器人計程車，如果沒有 FSD 許可，這將是一家 7 到 11 萬億美元的公司。

Now, with FSD licensing, with 80% gross margin, with this standardization of autonomous driving, we're talking about a massive, massive business that is not currently even included in this ARK Invest model, which makes you think about how big this company can really be if they launch robo-taxis and FSD within the next five years.

現在，有了 FSD 許可，有了 80% 的毛利率，有了自動駕駛的標準化，我們正在談論的是一個巨大的、龐大的業務，而這個業務目前甚至還沒有包含在 ARK 投資模型中，這讓你想到，如果他們在未來五年內推出機器人計程車和 FSD，這家公司到底能做多大。

If you look at Tesla from a fundamental perspective, if you just ignore the ARK Invest model, look, this company increased its revenues in three years by 160%.

如果你從根本上看待特斯拉，如果你忽略 ARK 投資模式，你看，這家公司的收入在三年內增長了 160%。

Net income is up almost by 1000% in three years.

淨收入在三年內增長了近 1000%。

All of this is selling at six Stein sales, 52 forward PE.

所有這些都以 6 個 Stein 銷售額、52 個遠期市盈率的價格出售。

這並不便宜，但偉大從來都不便宜。

Companies like this, they always traded premium.

像這樣的公司，它們的交易總是溢價。

And with Tesla, look, we even put it through our own stock MVP scorecard.

對於特斯拉，我們甚至用自己的股票 MVP 記分卡進行了評分。

It scored 85, one of the highest scores we've seen, and only lost because it has a PE of about 30 and an institutional shareholding below 50 with 45%.

它得了 85 分，是我們見過的得分最高的公司之一，之所以失利，只是因為它的 PE 值約為 30，機構持股比例低於 50%，為 45%。

It's probably going to go up to 90 very, very soon.

Now, just to supplement the ARK Invest five-year model, my own personal DCF that shows me the current present value of Tesla is $1,400 per share, almost 10 times of where it is right now.

現在，作為對 ARK Invest 五年模型的補充，我個人的 DCF 顯示特斯拉目前的現值為每股 1400 美元，幾乎是現在的 10 倍。

That is why this thing is 20% of my portfolio.

這就是為什麼這東西佔我投資組合的 20%。

If you actually want to run your own DCF on Tesla and maybe run it through the scorecard, maybe other companies, check out stockMVP, stock-mvp.com.

如果你真的想對特斯拉進行 DCF 分析，並通過記分卡進行計算，或許還想對其他公司進行分析，請訪問 stockMVP，stock-mvp.com。

It's a platform I've created for you guys, for the retail investors to research stocks and get better at this whole game, stock-mvp.com.

這是我為你們創建的一個平臺，散戶投資者可以通過這個平臺研究股票，並更好地參與整個遊戲，stock-mvp.com。

With the code Tom25, you're going to get 25% off for your lifetime of use.

使用代碼 "Tom25"，您將在終身使用期間享受七五折優惠。

Again, if you haven't yet, join our community.

如果您還沒有加入，請再次加入我們的社區。

It is absolutely free to join, discord.gg slash TomNesh.

加入完全免費，請訪問 discord.gg slash TomNesh。

今天就加入，和我們一起玩吧。

And if you actually want to get better at this, check out my heroic academy.

如果你真的想在這方面更上一層樓，可以去我的英雄學院看看。

Now in our academy, we have lessons about how to reach financials, how to analyze stocks, how to become a better long-term investor.

現在，在我們的學院裡，我們有關於如何接觸財務、如何分析股票、如何成為一個更好的長期投資者的課程。

Not a gambler, not a trader, long-term investor, patreon.com forward slash TomNesh, 30 days money back guarantee.

不是賭徒，不是交易員，長期投資者，Patreon.com 轉發者，TomNesh 的斜槓，30 天退款保證。

If you're not happy with it for any reason, it's risk-free, try it out.

如果您因任何原因對它不滿意，它是無風險的，請嘗試一下。