Name: 我對 2025 年英偉達股票價格的預測 | NVDA 股票分析 (My Nvidia Stock Price Prediction for 2025 | NVDA Stock Analysis)
Uploaded: 2024-07-02T09:40:38.000Z
Duration: 10 min 41 s

Hey everyone, I'm back from my one week vacation and I want to thank everyone for the well wishes while I was on a break.

大家好，我結束一週的假期回來了，感謝大家在我休息期間對我的祝福。

For my first video back, I wanted to update my Nvidia stock price prediction for 2025.

作為我回歸後的第一個視頻，我想更新我對 2025 年英偉達股價的預測。

So to make this prediction, I'm going to use several assumptions and estimates that have been updated from Wall Street, from Nvidia, and several factors have changed that have changed my stock price prediction for Nvidia stock.

是以，在進行預測時，我將使用華爾街和 Nvidia 更新的一些假設和估計，而一些因素的變化也改變了我對 Nvidia 股票價格的預測。

So let me share with you all of the numbers I'll be using for my Nvidia stock price prediction and then I'll update and I'll share with you where I think Nvidia stock price will be by the end of next year.

是以，請允許我與大家分享我在預測英偉達股價時所使用的所有數據，然後我會更新這些數據，並與大家分享我認為英偉達股價到明年年底會達到的水準。

Alright, so one of the numbers I'm gonna need to make my Nvidia stock price prediction is the current share price and Nvidia stock price has faced a little bit of a headwind here.

好吧，我在預測 Nvidia 股價時需要的一個數字就是當前股價，而 Nvidia 股價在這方面遇到了一點阻力。

It's now down to $123 per share, down from higher levels earlier this month now, or last month I should say.

現在已經跌至每股 123 美元，從本月早些時候的高位回落，應該說是上個月的高位。

Nvidia stock price has absolutely soared in the last few years.

在過去幾年裡，Nvidia 的股價一路飆升。

I know a lot of investors panicked because of the pullback, but remember Nvidia stock price is not gonna go up every day.

我知道很多投資者因為回調而恐慌，但請記住，Nvidia 的股價不會天天上漲。

It's been rare that Nvidia stock price has performed so excellently in the last few months.

在過去的幾個月裡，英偉達的股價表現如此出色，實屬罕見。

Rarely does a stock go up as much as Nvidia has gone up.

很少有股票能像 Nvidia 一樣大漲。

So a little bit of a pullback was inevitable.

I don't think it's reason for investors to panic.

So let's take a look at my stock price prediction.

It's Nvidia's forward price to earnings ratio.

It's currently trading at a forward PE of 34.56, down slightly from the forward PE ratios closer to 40.

它目前的遠期市盈率為 34.56，比接近 40 的遠期市盈率略有下降。

It was trading at peak valuations earlier in 2024 and over the last few weeks.

在 2024 年早些時候和過去幾周，它的交易估值達到頂峰。

Now another number I'm gonna need for my prediction is Nvidia's earnings per share.

現在，我的預測還需要一個數字，那就是 Nvidia 的每股收益。

Now it's expected to earn $3.63 in earnings per share next year.

現在預計明年的每股收益為 3.63 美元。

Now I want to highlight something unique about Nvidia.

現在，我想強調一下 Nvidia 的獨特之處。

Well I shouldn't say unique, but I should say something interesting about Nvidia and that is that its fiscal year and calendar year are not matching.

我不應該說它是獨一無二的，但我應該說說關於 Nvidia 的有趣之處，那就是它的財政年度和日曆年度並不匹配。

So right now it says current year 2025 for Nvidia.

是以，現在 Nvidia 的數據顯示是 2025 年。

That's because it's in fiscal year 2025 even though we're in calendar year 2024.

這是因為儘管我們現在是 2024 日曆年，但它是在 2025 財政年度。

So Nvidia is one year ahead on its fiscal year compared to the calendar year.

是以，與日曆年相比，Nvidia 的財政年度提前了一年。

Next year it says 2026 but for calendar year that's 2025.

明年是 2026 年，但日曆年是 2025 年。

I wanted to point that out so as if you're watching the screen and thinking is that a typo?

我想指出這一點，就好像你在看螢幕時在想這是個錯別字嗎？

No, the companies are allowed to have fiscal years that are different than calendar years.

不，公司可以有不同於日曆年的財政年度。

It is confusing and annoying but they are allowed to do it.

這讓人困惑和惱火，但他們可以這樣做。

Interestingly also these are the estimates for its earnings per share from the Wall Street analysts that are following Nvidia stock.

有趣的是，這也是關注 Nvidia 股票的華爾街分析師對其每股收益的估計。

So these are a collection of Wall Street professionals that are following the stock and they make their predictions, their forecasts for where they think earnings per share will be.

這些人都是華爾街的專業人士，他們關注這隻股票，並對每股收益做出預測。

Now these numbers change quite frequently and those updates are reflected here in the EPS trend.

現在，這些數字經常變化，而這些更新都反映在每股收益趨勢中。

You could see 90 days ago the analysts on Wall Street were expecting $3.37 in earnings per share on a split adjusted basis.

你可以看到，90 天前，華爾街的分析師預計經拆分調整後的每股收益為 3.37 美元。

Remember 90 days ago the stock had not split yet and that's why you see $30.37 here 90 days ago and $3.63 here as the current estimate.

請記住，90 天前股票尚未拆分，這就是為什麼 90 天前這裡的價格是 30.37 美元，而現在的估價是 3.63 美元。

這是在拆分調整的基礎上進行的。

This is on a pre-split basis and all it does is multiply by 10 or divide by 10 since the stock was split 10 for 1.

這是在拆分前的基礎上進行的，它所做的只是乘以 10 或除以 10，因為股票是 10 拆 1 的。

So as you'll notice the earnings per share estimates from Wall Street have been steadily increasing from $30.37 or $3.37 on a split adjusted basis up to $31.18 to $35.66 before taking a slight dip here 7 days ago to $33.80 and then back up to $36.30 or $3.63 on a split adjusted basis.

是以，你會注意到，華爾街對每股收益的預期一直在穩步上升，從 30.37 美元（按拆分調整後為 3.37 美元）上升到 31.18 美元到 35.66 美元，7 天前略微下降到 33.80 美元，然後又回升到 36.30 美元（按拆分調整後為 3.63 美元）。

So Wall Street is becoming even more bullish on Nvidia stock if you can believe that's possible because there's been so much bullishness around Nvidia stock.

是以，華爾街正變得更加看好 Nvidia 的股票，如果你相信這是可能的話，因為圍繞 Nvidia 股票的看漲情緒已經太多了。

Myself I've been bullish on Nvidia stock.

我本人一直看好 Nvidia 的股票。

I've had Nvidia stock rated as one of my top 24 stocks to buy in 2024 and I've had it there all year long so I've been optimistic on Nvidia stock.

我一直把 Nvidia 股票列為 2024 年最值得買入的 24 只股票之一，而且全年都是如此，所以我一直對 Nvidia 股票持樂觀態度。

Wall Street is now coming along and also being optimistic on Nvidia stock.

華爾街現在也開始看好 Nvidia 的股票。

The other number I'm gonna need is a growth rate estimate for Nvidia because I'm gonna be using the forward price to earnings multiple.

我需要的另一個數字是對 Nvidia 增長率的估計，因為我將使用遠期市盈率。

I need the earnings per share for Nvidia in 2026 in calendar year 2026 which would be fiscal year 2027.

我需要 Nvidia 在 2026 日曆年（即 2027 財年）的每股收益。

You saw up there I didn't have that number given to me by the Yahoo Finance website.

你在上面也看到了，我沒有雅虎財經網站給我的那個數字。

So they do give me the growth estimates for Nvidia stock.

是以，他們確實給了我 Nvidia 股票的增長預期。

Next year Nvidia is expected to increase earnings per share by 33.9% and then for the next five years they're expected to increase earnings per share by 46.35%.

明年，Nvidia 的每股收益預計將增長 33.9%，而在接下來的五年中，每股收益預計將增長 46.35%。

So I'm gonna use these figures to estimate one year's worth of earnings per share growth for Nvidia.

是以，我要用這些數字來估算 Nvidia 一年的每股收益增長。

Now I'm gonna use a blended average of these two growth rates.

現在，我將使用這兩個增長率的混合平均值。

So instead of using 34% or 46% I'm gonna use 40% because it's right about the middle of these two growth rates.

是以，我不會使用 34% 或 46% 的增長率，而是使用 40%，因為這兩個增長率正好處於中間位置。

Instead of taking the conservative estimate or the optimistic estimate at 46 I'm gonna go in the middle at 40% as my growth rate for Nvidia's earnings per share next year.

我不會選擇保守估計或樂觀估計的 46%，而是會選擇中間的 40%，作為 Nvidia 明年每股收益的增長率。

Hey everyone I wanted to take a moment to thank the sponsor of this video.

大家好，我想借此機會感謝本視頻的贊助商。

Moomoo is a trading platform that allows individuals to buy and sell stocks and other investments.

Moomoo 是一個允許個人買賣股票和其他投資的交易平臺。

I posted the link to Moomoo in the description below.

我在下面的描述中發佈了 Moomoo 的鏈接。

If you use that link to sign up to Moomoo it'll help support my channel but more importantly you can get special incentives for using my link including up to extra 10 free stocks.

如果您使用該鏈接註冊 Moomoo，這將有助於支持我的頻道，但更重要的是，使用我的鏈接可以獲得特別獎勵，包括多達 10 支免費股票。

Alright so now that we have the numbers we're gonna use let's go ahead and make our calculations and prediction.

好了，現在我們有了要用到的數字，讓我們繼續進行計算和預測吧。

So remember we said calendar year 2025 Nvidia's earnings per share $3.63 and I got that from the Wall Street analyst estimates.

記得我們說過，2025 歷年 Nvidia 的每股收益為 3.63 美元，這是我根據華爾街分析師的估計得出的。

Remember we also said I'm going to use the 40% growth rate estimate because that's the blended average of the two different earnings per share growth rates for next year in the next five years.

記得我們還說過，我將使用 40% 的增長率估算，因為這是未來五年中明年兩種不同每股收益增長率的混合平均值。

So if I apply that 40% growth rate to the $3.63 EPS for 2025 I get an EPS for 2026 of $5.08.

是以，如果將 40% 的增長率應用到 2025 年 3.63 美元的每股收益中，2026 年的每股收益將達到 5.08 美元。

Now that we have the EPS estimate for 2026 we can go ahead and apply our forward PE multiple to make our price prediction.

現在，我們有了 2026 年的每股收益估計值，就可以繼續運用遠期市盈率倍數來預測價格了。

So if the forward PE multiple were to remain where it is today at 34.56 and the EPS comes in on trend for $5.08 then Nvidia's stock price could be $175.63 by the end of 2025.

是以，如果遠期市盈率保持在目前的 34.56 倍，每股收益達到 5.08 美元，那麼到 2025 年底，Nvidia 的股價可能會達到 175.63 美元。

Now that would be a nice increase of about $50 per share from the current $123 per share the If the forward PE multiple were to increase even more that would mean the forward PE multiple at 45 could mean the stock price would rise to $228 per share that would be an increase of about $100 per share from its current valuation.

如果遠期市盈率進一步提高，意味著遠期市盈率為 45，股價將升至每股 228 美元，比目前的估值每股增加約 100 美元。

If the forward PE multiple were to decrease, if there were some factors that were unfavorable to Nvidia stock, if competition was to suddenly and a scenario which I think is unlikely, then the forward PE multiple could fall to $25 and the stock price would be relatively flat at $127 per share.

如果遠期市盈率下降，如果出現一些不利於 Nvidia 股票的因素，如果競爭突然加劇，而我認為這種情況不太可能發生，那麼遠期市盈率可能會下降到 25 美元，股價也會相對持平在每股 127 美元。

And in an even worse case scenario where the forward PE multiple were to fall by roughly half to $18 then the stock price could fall to $91.48.

而在更糟糕的情況下，如果遠期市盈率下降約一半至 18 美元，那麼股價可能會跌至 91.48 美元。

So even in scenario where the forward PE multiple were to slash by almost half the stock price would not be down by a devastating amount to $91 per share.

是以，即使遠期市盈率下降近一半，股價也不會跌至每股 91 美元的災難性水準。

So you can understand why I've been bullish on Nvidia stock with great upside and a seemingly limited downside that is of course if earnings per share continues at the current pace.

是以，你就能理解為什麼我一直看好 Nvidia 的股票，因為它的上漲空間很大，而下跌空間似乎有限，當然，前提是每股收益繼續保持目前的速度。

This is all assuming that earnings per share continues growing at a robust rate as we have assumed with our estimates.

這一切的前提是，每股收益繼續保持強勁增長，正如我們在估算時所假設的那樣。

Now I've created four different scenarios here but which one do I think is the most likely?

現在，我在這裡創造了四種不同的情景，但我認為哪一種最有可能發生呢？

That's where I'm gonna make my 2025 stock price target for Nvidia stock.

這就是我為 Nvidia 股票設定的 2025 年目標股價。

I think Nvidia stock ends somewhere between the forward PE multiple of $34 and $45 and I think the stock price ends up by the end of 2025 somewhere between $175 per share and $200 per share.

我認為 Nvidia 的股價最終會介於 34 美元到 45 美元的遠期 PE 倍數之間，到 2025 年底，股價最終會介於每股 175 美元到 200 美元之間。

I know there's a lot you could be doing with your time and a lot of other videos you could be watching so I truly appreciate that you chose to watch this one.

我知道你有很多事情可以做，也有很多其他視頻可以看，所以我真的很感謝你選擇看這個視頻。

If you want to see more videos just like this hit the subscribe or the like button.

如果您想觀看更多類似視頻，請點擊 "訂閱 "或 "喜歡 "按鈕。

They'll both help me make more videos just like this one.

它們都會幫助我製作更多像這樣的視頻。