Ian Bremmer here.

我是伊恩-布雷默。

And a quick take to kick off your week.

為您本週的工作做個小結。

The topic everyone is discussing, of course, is what is the state of play in the U.S. election for President Biden's re-election campaign in particular?

當然，大家都在討論的話題是，美國大選尤其是拜登總統競選連任的形勢如何？

What's going to happen?

會發生什麼？

What are the outcomes?

結果如何？

Well, what's going to happen, at least for the near term, is that Biden isn't going anywhere.

至少在近期內，拜登哪兒也不會去。

He would have to decide to stand down.

他必須決定退出。

He certainly is not prepared to do that.

他肯定不準備這樣做。

His team would have to tell him strongly that they feel like he's making a mistake.

他的團隊必須強烈地告訴他，他們覺得他在犯錯誤。

They're not prepared to do that either.

他們也不準備這麼做。

And this is something we've seen on a few occasions.

這種情況我們也見過幾次。

Remember, Biden has been serving at high levels in foreign office for decades as vice president for eight years, in addition to president for almost four, and as senator, including running the Foreign Relations Committee for decades and decades.

請記住，拜登幾十年來一直在外交部門擔任高級職務，除了擔任了近四年的總統外，還擔任了八年的副總統，以及數十年的參議員，包括管理外交關係委員會。

And so the people around him, they are very loyal.

是以，他身邊的人都非常忠誠。

They have a lot of experience and they've been on and committed to Team Biden for a very long time.

他們擁有豐富的經驗，而且長期以來一直加入並致力於拜登團隊。

They absolutely are willing to give him advice and they execute as well as they can on his directives.

他們絕對願意向他提供建議，並儘可能地執行他的指令。

But they are very unwilling to challenge him, particularly when he feels strongly about an outcome.

但他們非常不願意挑戰他，尤其是當他對結果有強烈的感覺時。

And we've seen this play out on Russia-Ukraine.

我們已經在俄羅斯-烏克蘭問題上看到了這一點。

Biden was unwilling to talk about moving towards a negotiated settlement as the Ukrainians were doing better and better.

拜登不願意談論通過談判解決問題，因為烏克蘭人做得越來越好。

They were kicking it down the road.

他們在路上踢球。

They weren't having the difficult decision because no one was willing to really challenge it.

他們沒有做出艱難的決定，因為沒有人願意真正挑戰它。

And then the situation for the Ukrainians started getting worse.

然後，烏克蘭人的處境開始變得越來越糟。

And it was, they'll manage reasonably well the tactical on the day to day.

而且，他們會合理地處理好日常的戰術。

And you have a strong coalition that the Americans are leading.

你們有一個由美國人上司的強大聯盟。

But at no point are you making the big sudden change.

但無論何時，你都不能做出重大的突然改變。

It's very cautious.

非常謹慎。

It's very conservative.

這是非常保守的。

And it tends to kick the can on big, controversial potential decisions.

而且，在重大的、有爭議的潛在決策上，它往往會一腳踢開。

I've seen the same thing in the war in the Middle East.

我在中東戰爭中也看到了同樣的情況。

A lot of people feeling like Biden should have been tougher and stronger against Prime Minister Netanyahu much earlier, especially as he was taking his own wax against Biden.

很多人認為拜登本應更早地對內塔尼亞胡總理採取更強硬、更有力的態度，尤其是在內塔尼亞胡對拜登採取強硬態度的時候。

Biden unwilling to do that.

拜登不願意這麼做

They kept kicking the can.

他們一直在踢罐子。

And so you got incremental decision making, very cautious, very risk averse, very conservative.

是以，你的決策是漸進式的，非常謹慎，非常規避風險，非常保守。

Every one of the tactical decisions were pretty well executed.

每一個戰術決定都執行得相當好。

But willingness to take big bets and risks, much, much less so.

但願意下大賭注、冒大風險的人，就少得多，少得多。

And now we see the same thing playing out on the election.

現在，我們看到選舉中也出現了同樣的情況。

For the last year, it's been very clear to anyone that has met with Biden, and I've said this certainly publicly, and I've heard it from all sorts of leaders, whether it's CEOs or leaders of the G7 or the G20 or the big multilateral organizations, that Biden is not someone that is capable of strongly leading the country for another four years through 86, the age of 86, too frail, too slow, losing a number of steps since he was running back in 2020.

在過去的一年裡，任何與拜登見過面的人都很清楚，我當然也公開這麼說過，我也從各種領導人那裡聽到過，無論是首席執行官還是七國集團、二十國集團或大型多邊組織的領導人，拜登都不是一個能夠在接下來的四年裡強有力地上司這個國家的人，他已經86歲了，身體太虛弱，行動太遲緩，自從2020年競選以來，他已經失去了很多步。

But at no point was someone around Biden willing to have the tough conversation, and Biden himself wasn't willing to hear it.

但拜登身邊沒有人願意進行艱難的對話，拜登本人也不願意聽。

And so you kick the can, you kick the can, you continue to manage it until it becomes a bigger problem.

於是，你踢罐子，你踢罐子，你繼續管理它，直到它變成一個更大的問題。

And that's where we are right now.

這就是我們現在的處境。

And it is certainly true that the leadership of the Democratic Party and the top leaders of the House and Senate and the top governors, none of them are straying from the party line.

當然，民主黨的領導層、眾議院和參議院的最高領導人以及最高級別的州長都沒有偏離黨的路線。

They are rallying around the president and saying, yeah, he had a bad debate, but he can still do this.

他們團結在總統周圍說，是的，他的辯論很糟糕，但他仍然可以做到這一點。

But there are a lot of people that certainly matter for the president in terms of the mainstream media, as well as in terms of senior leaders in the former Obama camp that are saying that this guy needs to step down.

但在主流媒體以及前奧巴馬陣營的高層領導中，有很多人都認為總統需要下臺。

And I do think it matters when the paper of record for the center left, The New York Times, has not just their individual columnists, but the editorial board writing that he needs to stand down.

我認為，如果中左翼的權威報紙《紐約時報》不僅有專欄作家，而且編輯部也撰文稱他需要下臺，這就很重要了。

And I think it matters when respected advisers to Obama, like Axelrod Favreau and a number of others are saying, you need to step down.

我認為，當奧巴馬德高望重的顧問，如阿克塞爾羅德-法夫羅和其他一些人說，你需要下臺時，這就很重要了。

Now, Biden doesn't trust those people.

現在，拜登不相信這些人了。

In terms of the Obama folks, he thinks that they're the ones that gave it to Clinton as an opportunity, when it should have been his, passed him over.

就奧巴馬的人而言，他認為是他們把機會讓給了克林頓，而這本該是他的機會，卻與他擦肩而過。

If Obama said that to him personally and strongly, directly, it would be taken differently.

如果奧巴馬直接對他本人強烈地說出這句話，人們的看法就會不同。

But certainly, Biden and his senior team won't accept a recommendation for them.

但可以肯定的是，拜登和他的高級團隊不會接受對他們的推薦。

And they won't accept a recommendation from the mainstream media.

他們也不會接受主流媒體的推薦。

I mean, if you look at the seven stages of grief, they are through shock, they're through denial, they're roughly in the anger phase, but they're not yet in depression.

我的意思是，如果你看看悲傷的七個階段，他們經歷了震驚、否認、憤怒階段，但還沒有到抑鬱階段。

And they certainly aren't engaging in bargaining.

他們當然也不會討價還價。

So I think we're very far from Biden actually stepping down.

是以，我認為拜登離真正下臺還很遠。

Now, having said that, there's still five months before the election, and that's a long time for an 81-year-old that has bad days.

話雖如此，但現在距離大選還有五個月的時間，對於一個81歲的老人來說，這已經是一段很長的時間了。

And the fact that you now do have, for the first time, some damaging information from the Axios piece that said that, you know, he's pretty strong in being able to engage from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., that's an indictment for someone at 81 that would need to govern until he's 86.

而事實上，你現在確實第一次從Axios的文章中獲得了一些有破壞性的資訊，其中說，你知道，他在能夠從上午10點到下午4點工作方面非常強大，這對一個81歲的人來說是一個起訴，他需要執政到86歲。

And that's the kind of thing that would not have been shared with the media six months ago.

而這種事情在 6 個月前是不會與媒體分享的。

And now it is.

現在就是這樣。

And when you see members of the family and senior friends and formal advisors to Biden blaming the senior team of staffers for not prepping him well during the debate, that, again, we haven't seen that kind of internal animosity.

當你看到拜登的家庭成員、高級朋友和正式顧問指責高級幕僚團隊沒有在辯論中為他做好準備時，我們又一次看到了那種內部的敵意。

And if you start to see senior members of the team turning out against, either anonymously or not, Biden sticking around because they think he can't win, that becomes much more dangerous.

如果你開始看到團隊中的資深成員以匿名或非匿名的方式反對拜登繼續留任，因為他們認為拜登贏不了，那就變得更加危險了。

So I think this gets harder to manage.

是以，我認為這變得更加難以管理。

It's easy to manage right after the debate when everyone recognizes that he's not prepared to step down.

辯論結束後，當所有人都意識到他不準備下臺時，就很容易處理了。

But as this story continues to play, and yes, they can try to manage him and limit the time that he spends with the public, but this is going to be the focus for all of the media going forward over the coming months.

但隨著事態的發展，是的，他們可以嘗試管理他，限制他與公眾接觸的時間，但這將是未來幾個月所有媒體關注的焦點。

And of course, it's a very easy thing for the Trump team to run on.

當然，對於特朗普團隊來說，這也是一件很容易的事。

Running against Biden, as opposed to running on Trump's deficiencies, is a much better place for them to be.

與拜登競選，而不是與特朗普的不足之處競選，對他們來說是一個更好的選擇。

We are in a horrible place in terms of the state of this U.S. election.

就美國大選的現狀而言，我們正處於一個可怕的境地。

I'm sure many of you have seen the CBS YouGov poll over the weekend that shows that over 70 percent of registered voters believe that Biden is not cognitively capable to stand and run the country for four years.

我相信很多人都看到了上週末哥倫比亞廣播公司 YouGov 的民意調查，結果顯示超過 70% 的登記選民認為拜登在認知能力上無法在四年內管理國家。

They think he should stand down. 50 percent of registered voters believe the same about Trump.

他們認為他應該下臺。50%的登記選民對特朗普持相同看法。

That number is way too high.

這個數字太高了。

It's too high for Biden.

這對拜登來說太高了。

It's too high for Trump.

這對特朗普來說太高了。

We have never been in an environment where the American people feel so badly about both candidates.

我們從未經歷過美國人民對兩位候選人都如此不滿的環境。

And yes, of course, there is an enthusiasm gap.

是的，當然，存在著熱情差距。

And Trump supporters are much more willing to forgive Trump's unfitness or even to paint Trump's unfitness as a positive than team, than the people around Biden.

與拜登周圍的人相比，特朗普的支持者更願意原諒特朗普的不稱職，甚至把特朗普的不稱職描繪成比團隊更積極的一面。

And that is a problem.

這就是一個問題。

You're more likely to see a bumper sticker or a cap for Trump among his supporters than for Biden among his supporters.

在特朗普的支持者中，你更有可能看到特朗普的保險槓貼紙或帽子，而在拜登的支持者中，你更有可能看到拜登的貼紙或帽子。

And in an election where turnout matters, the fact that large numbers of Democrats are now questioning the fitness for office of their own candidate, I think, does make it more likely that Trump is going to win.

我認為，在投票率至關重要的選舉中，大量民主黨人現在質疑自己的候選人是否適合擔任公職，這確實使特朗普更有可能獲勝。

I had very, very low confidence going into the debate about what the outcome of the election would be.

在參加辯論時，我對選舉結果的信心非常非常低。

I still have low confidence, but it is higher than it was before the debate.

我的信心仍然不足，但比辯論前要高。

This is a major inflection point in my view.

在我看來，這是一個重要的拐點。

And it makes it more likely that Trump is going to win.

這使得特朗普更有可能獲勝。

And it would put more pressure on the Biden team to consider alternatives.

這將給拜登團隊帶來更大的壓力，迫使他們考慮替代方案。

I do believe that if they wanted to go the alternative route, alternatives exist.

我相信，如果他們想走替代路線，替代方案是存在的。

First of all, at this stage, given Biden's age and given the way he is likely to appear over the coming five months, I don't think that Kamala Harris is a worse choice, is less likely to win than Biden.

首先，在現階段，考慮到拜登的年齡以及他在未來五個月中可能出現的表現，我不認為卡馬拉-哈里斯是一個比拜登更糟糕的選擇，也不認為他的勝選可能性比拜登小。

So simply stepping back, continuing the campaign, but Kamala becomes the candidate, I would say at this point, and I wouldn't have said that six months ago, she's as likely to take the election as Biden would be, both in my view, on balance likely to lose.

是以，我認為，在這一點上，卡馬拉會成為候選人，而我在六個月前不會這麼說，她和拜登一樣有可能贏得選舉，在我看來，兩者都有可能輸掉選舉。

But I also think that the potential of bringing in somebody else in the convention, and there are a lot of strong candidates out there, Gina Raimondo would be certainly towards the top, especially because she is actively a very trusted part of the Biden cabinet.

但我也認為，有可能在大會上引入其他人，有很多強有力的候選人，吉娜-雷蒙多（Gina Raimondo）肯定會是首選，特別是因為她是拜登內閣中非常值得信任的一員。

So it's less of a transition.

是以，過渡期較短。

Pete Buttigieg outside, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Jared Polis.

外面是 Pete Buttigieg、Gretchen Whitmer、Gavin Newsom 和 Jared Polis。

There are a number that are strong.

有很多都很強大。

That is also, of course, a bigger risk, because here not only are you pushing aside Kamala Harris, which will antagonize a lot of her supporters, and there are many, but also would be putting up someone who does not have a significant track record in national politics.

當然，這也是一個更大的風險，因為在這裡，你不僅要把卡馬拉-哈里斯推到一邊，這將與她的很多支持者（有很多）對立起來，而且還會讓一個在國家政治中沒有重要記錄的人上臺。

And that reminds me of Ron DeSantis.

這讓我想起了羅恩-德桑蒂斯。

So many anti-Trump Republicans were all in for DeSantis.

許多反特朗普的共和黨人都支持德桑蒂斯。

This guy was going to be the golden child for the Republican Party.

這傢伙將成為共和黨的金童。

Take out Trump.

幹掉特朗普

And he was an absolute nothing, lightweight, on the national stage and got pasted by Trump.

在國家舞臺上，他絕對是個一無是處的輕量級人物，被特朗普打得落花流水。

And that, of course, is a danger.

當然，這也是一種危險。

So I understand that tactically, when you have a team that is oriented towards consensus around Biden, that on any given day, putting your head up and saying, I think it's time for you to go, sir, is not a great strategy.

所以我明白，從戰術上講，當你的團隊以拜登為核心達成共識時，在任何一天，抬起頭來說："先生，我認為您該走了。"都不是一個好策略。

And of course, that leads to many, many, many, many days of kicking the can until the point when it is a lot harder and the dangers are a lot greater than they were if you had had that conversation, say, a year ago.

當然，這會導致很多、很多、很多、很多天的 "踢罐子"，直到比一年前的對話更困難、危險更大的時候。

Also, keep in mind that when Biden first won and the election in 2020 became President 2021, literally no one around him thought he was going to run again.

另外，請記住，當拜登第一次贏得 2020 年大選併成為 2021 年總統時，他周圍的人根本沒有人認為他會再次參選。

So I mean, they did think this is a one-term president.

所以，我的意思是，他們確實認為這是一個任期只有一屆的總統。

He trounced Trump.

他擊敗了特朗普。

There'll be somebody else on the Republican side, probably, because he's too old to.

共和黨方面可能會有其他人，因為他太老了。

Trump is unfit.

特朗普不合適

And Biden will have one term and then it'll go on to somebody else.

拜登只做一屆，然後就會換人。

But of course, if you're unwilling to make those plans on any given day, you end up in a non-optimal place.

當然，如果你不願意在任何一天制定這些計劃，你最終就會陷入非最佳狀態。

And that is where the Democrats are right now.

這就是民主黨現在的處境。

The Republicans are in a non-optimal place for very different reasons.

共和黨處於非最佳狀態的原因截然不同。

They're also facing someone who is there, that they are very, certainly would much rather be running with someone else because they'd have a much higher chance of winning.

他們面對的也是一個在那裡的人，他們非常、肯定更願意與其他人一起競選，因為他們的勝算會更大。

If this were Biden at this age versus Nikki Haley, the likelihood Haley would win would be, I think, a layup or a slam dunk.

如果是這個年齡段的拜登對陣尼基-海利，我認為海利獲勝的可能性是上籃或扣籃。

It's not where we are even now with Trump because so many people think that Trump is problematic and for very good reason to run.

即使是現在的特朗普也不是這樣，因為很多人都認為特朗普有問題，而且競選理由非常充分。

But the likelihood that Trump, of course, will be removed, zero, despite all of that.

當然，儘管如此，特朗普被撤職的可能性為零。

And he does control the Republican Party to a much greater degree than Biden controls the Democratic Party.

他對共和黨的控制程度確實遠遠超過拜登對民主黨的控制。

And you can say, well, that's unfair and they aren't the same standards.

你可以說，這不公平，它們的標準不一樣。

But, you know, what you would like to happen is not where we are.

但是，你知道，你希望發生的事情並不是我們現在所處的狀況。

Where we are is that Biden is the one that has to make this decision and it's going to get harder for him over the course of the coming months.

現在的情況是，拜登必須做出這個決定，而在未來幾個月裡，這對他來說會越來越難。

That's it for me.

我就這樣了。

And I'll talk to you all real soon.

我很快就會和大家聯繫。