If history shows us anything, it's that presidential debates are mostly remembered, not for style or substance, but for those unexpected moments which can either boost or doom a candidate's chances.

如果說歷史告訴我們什麼的話，那就是總統辯論最令人難忘的，不是風格或內容，而是那些出人意料的時刻，這些時刻既能增加候選人的機會，也能毀掉候選人的機會。

Since the first televised presidential debate in 1960, the candidates need no introduction.

自 1960 年首次電視直播總統辯論以來，候選人無需多言。

We've witnessed decisive political showdowns full of pivotal moments and sometimes self-inflicted wounds, like Richard Nixon appearing sweaty and oddly passive against a more confident John F.

我們見證了充滿關鍵時刻的決定性政治對決，有時甚至是自殘式的對決，比如理查德-尼克松（Richard Nixon）面對更加自信的約翰-F-約翰遜（John F. John），顯得滿頭大汗，異常被動。

Kennedy.

肯尼迪

Mr. Nixon, would you like to comment on that statement?

尼克松先生，你願意對這一說法發表評論嗎？

I have no comment.

我無可奉告。

Or Ronald Reagan flipping his age issue against Walter Mondale with this classic line.

羅納德-里根（Ronald Reagan）在與沃爾特-蒙代爾（Walter Mondale）的比賽中，也曾用這句經典臺詞來反駁他的年齡問題。

I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience.

我不會為了政治目的而利用對手的年輕和缺乏經驗。

Despite all the preparation, debates sometimes bring out the less appealing sides of a candidate, like Michael Dukakis appearing emotionless in 1988.

儘管準備充分，辯論有時還是會暴露出候選人不那麼吸引人的一面，比如邁克爾-杜卡基斯（Michael Dukakis）在 1988 年的辯論中就顯得毫無感情。

Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?

州長，如果凱蒂-杜卡基斯被姦殺，您是否贊成對凶手處以無可挽回的死刑？

No, I don't, Bernard, and I think you know that I've opposed the death penalty during all of my life.

不，我沒有，伯納德，我想你也知道，我一生都反對死刑。

Or Al Gore in 2000 sighing and exasperated in his debate with George W.

或者 2000 年的阿爾-戈爾在與喬治-W.奧巴馬的辯論中唉聲嘆氣。

Bush.

布什

I've had a record of appointing judges in the state of Texas.

我在德克薩斯州有任命法官的記錄。

That's what a governor gets to do.

這就是州長該做的事。

Kristen, with past as prologue, should Biden lean into his age issue?

克里斯汀，前事不忘，後事之師，拜登是否應該在年齡問題上有所傾斜？

Should he be ready?

他準備好了嗎？

He's no Ronald Reagan, but should he be ready with some kind of prepared one-liner when Trump goes after him on age or acuity or fitness for office?

他不是羅納德-里根（Ronald Reagan），但當特朗普就年齡、敏銳度或是否適合擔任公職等問題向他發難時，他是否應該準備好某種有備而來的單口相聲？

He needs to be ready to address it, but he should not lean into it.

他需要準備好解決這個問題，但他不應該去糾纏這個問題。

There was a time when experience may have gone in his favor.

曾經有一段時間，經驗可能對他有利。

That was four years ago.

那是四年前的事了。

That is not right now.

現在不是時候。

Americans are not saying, yes, you are over the age of 80, and that's wonderful.

美國人不會說，是的，你已經超過 80 歲了，這很好。

So he really needs to demonstrate that the age is nothing but a number rather than lean into it as any kind of a selling point.

是以，他真的需要證明年齡只是一個數字，而不是把它作為賣點。

The people I've been talking to at the White House say the best way for Biden to handle the age issue is how he performs in the debate, to just show over the course of those 90 minutes that he's up to four more years.

我在白宮與之交談的人說，拜登處理年齡問題的最佳方式是他在辯論中的表現，即在90分鐘的辯論中表明他還能再幹四年。

Kara, does Biden need to lean in, especially if Trump goes after him in some way on this issue?

卡拉，拜登是否需要靠攏，尤其是如果特朗普在這個問題上以某種方式對他發起攻擊？

Well, he can push back at Trump because Trump's had a number of mistakes in speaking.

好吧，他可以反擊特朗普，因為特朗普在演講中也有不少失誤。

He seems more vibrant.

他看起來更有活力了。

Like I said, he seems like the guy- He who?

就像我說的，他似乎就是那個人--他是誰？

Trump seems like the guy in the senior cafeteria who's yelling about who stole his pudding, but it seems vibrant at least, and that's the problem, is that even though I think they probably have- So is there anything Biden can do, or is it basically show us?

特朗普看起來就像高年級食堂裡嚷嚷著誰偷了他的布丁的傢伙，但它看起來至少充滿活力，這就是問題所在，儘管我認為他們可能有--那麼拜登能做什麼呢，或者基本上就是給我們看？

I think he can have maybe one line, but showing us rather than tell is critical here.

我認為他也許可以有一句臺詞，但關鍵是向我們展示，而不是告訴我們。

Show versus tell is absolutely critical, but he should have a line tucked away, some kind of little line that is funny.

表演與講述絕對是關鍵，但他應該有一句臺詞，一些有趣的小臺詞。

I'm sure he has lots of comedians at his disposal.

我敢肯定，他手下有很多喜劇演員。

Try to get one good line that works.

試著找一條好用的臺詞。

It would be great for Biden to lean into the age issue if he were actually capable of doing it, but I don't think he's actually capable of carrying it off in the way that Ronald Reagan did.

如果拜登真的有能力解決年齡問題，那就再好不過了，但我不認為他真的有能力像羅納德-里根（Ronald Reagan）那樣解決年齡問題。

Of the two candidates on that stage, Trump is actually funny, capable of being funny, and Biden excelled in 2020.

在臺上的兩位候選人中，特朗普其實很風趣，能說會道，而拜登在2020年的競選中表現出色。

The memorable line of that debate was when he said, will you shut up, when he showed exasperation and was dismissive of Trump's constant interruptions and being annoying, and I think you gotta play to who you are.

那場辯論中最令人難忘的一句話是他說："你能閉嘴嗎？"當時他表現出氣憤，對特朗普的不斷打斷和討厭不屑一顧。

Then there are the gaffes, when despite all the coaching from their teams, a candidate steps in it.

然後是失誤，儘管他們的團隊對候選人進行了悉心指導，但候選人還是會出現失誤。

Here's President Gerald Ford in a 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter.

這是傑拉爾德-福特總統在 1976 年與吉米-卡特的辯論中。

There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.

蘇聯沒有統治東歐，福特政府也永遠不會統治東歐。

You know, I watched this, and then the reaction from the questioners, it was a team of questioners, and Max Franklin of the New York Times looked like he had just said the sky is falling.

紐約時報》的麥克斯-富蘭克林（Max Franklin）看起來就像剛說了一句 "天要塌了"。

It was just utter disbelief.

我簡直不敢相信。

Nia, who do you think of these two, Biden and Trump, we'll leave Jerry Ford out of it, is more likely to have a bad moment?

尼婭，你認為拜登和特朗普（我們不提傑裡-福特）這兩個人中，誰更有可能發生糟糕的時刻？

Listen, I think it's probably Trump, because Trump doesn't really know policy.

聽著，我認為可能是特朗普，因為特朗普並不真正瞭解政策。

He doesn't really know substance.

他並不真正瞭解實質。

He has these sort of broad takes on the world, broad takes on the economy, but when it comes to sort of history, and even in some ways his own past and what he did in his own administration, he isn't well-versed in that, so I think it's much more likely that he'll do it.

他對世界和經濟的看法很寬泛，但說到歷史，甚至從某種程度上說他自己的過去以及他在自己的政府中的所作所為，他並不精通，所以我認為他更有可能做到這一點。

You listen, I think they're both gaffe-prone, but I think the more costly gaffe will likely come from Trump.

聽著，我認為他們都容易口誤，但我認為特朗普的口誤可能代價更大。

Eliana, do you agree with that?

埃莉安娜，你同意嗎？

I mean, both of these guys are fully capable of digging a hole for themselves.

我的意思是，這兩個傢伙都完全有能力為自己挖個坑。

Who do you think is more likely to?

你認為誰更有可能？

I don't agree with that.

我不同意這種說法。

I think Biden is more likely, and I assure you his team is the more nervous going into this debate of the two.

我認為拜登的可能性更大，而且我向你保證，他的團隊在這場辯論中會更加緊張。

He has been kept away.

他一直被擋在門外。

He's spending the weekend away.

他週末要外出

He had only a couple of public appearances this week, and it's what we've seen in his administration.

他本週只有幾次公開露面，而這正是我們在他的政府中所看到的。

I also think the format is going to greatly help Trump unintentionally.

我還認為，這種形式會在無意中大大幫助特朗普。

In 2020, when the mics were not muted, when the other candidate was talking, Trump was interrupting constantly.

2020 年，在麥克風沒有靜音的情況下，當其他候選人發言時，特朗普不斷插話。

It was distracting.

這讓人分心。

He looked annoying and seemed like a bully.

他看起來很煩人，似乎是個惡霸。

Now they'll be muted, and I think that will accrue to Trump's benefit.

現在他們的聲音小了，我認為這對特朗普有利。

I also think not having an audience will actually accrue to Trump's benefit in that he will not be playing to a crowd.

我還認為，沒有觀眾實際上對特朗普有利，因為他不會向觀眾表演。

So you're almost saying that all of these rules that have been set up are gonna save him from himself?

你的意思是說，所有這些已經制定的規則都是為了拯救他自己？

I kind of do.

我有點想。

Interesting.

有意思

Actually, I think he'll make a mistake.

事實上，我認為他會犯錯誤。

He can't help it.

他也沒辦法。

He was just in a room with a lot of CEOs, as you heard about, that they were, he met a bunch of CEOs who were somewhat positive to him.

他剛剛和許多首席執行官共處一室，正如你所聽到的，他們，他遇到了一群對他有些積極的首席執行官。

I've talked to a number of people there, and he blew it on every account with a lot of people because he couldn't move quickly, especially on policy, when they were asking about policy, and they didn't want jokes from anybody.

我在那裡和很多人談過，他在很多人面前都搞砸了，因為他不能迅速採取行動，尤其是在政策方面，當他們詢問政策時，他們不想聽任何人開玩笑。

I have one quick story to tell.

我有一個小故事要講。

When I did the debate between Clinton and Trump in 2016, they each got two minutes, and these were all policy questions, and you all know that if you have two minutes that's yours exclusively, you use every bit of it and probably go over a little bit.

我在2016年為克林頓和特朗普做辯論時，他們每人有兩分鐘的時間，這些都是政策問題，你們都知道，如果你有兩分鐘的時間，那就是你的專屬時間，你會充分利用它，可能還會超出一點。

Trump would often be finished talking about an issue of substance in a minute 20, a minute 30.

特朗普經常會在 20 分鐘、30 分鐘內講完一個實質性問題。

He couldn't fill up a minute 30 worth of time on substance.

他連一分鐘 30 分鐘的實質內容都說不完。

And what was interesting, a lot of them were surprised by the cognitive issues, like that he would go from one thing to the next.

有趣的是，很多人都對他的認知問題感到驚訝，比如他會從一件事變成另一件事。

So tangential stuff will be a problem for him.

是以，切題的東西對他來說是個問題。

And then there are the iconic moments, prepared or spontaneous, when one candidate crushes the other.

還有一些標誌性的時刻，無論是事先準備好的還是自發的，當一位候選人碾壓另一位候選人的時候。

My favorite was the vice presidential debate in 1988 between Senators Dan Quayle and Lloyd Benson.

我最喜歡的是 1988 年丹-奎爾參議員和勞埃德-本森參議員之間的副總統辯論。

I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency.

我在國會的經驗與傑克-肯尼迪競選總統時一樣豐富。

Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy.

參議員，我曾與傑克-肯尼迪共事。

I knew Jack Kennedy.

我認識傑克-肯尼迪

Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine.

傑克-肯尼迪是我的朋友。

Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.

參議員，你不是傑克-肯尼迪。

And that was a guttural roar like I've never heard before.

那是我從未聽過的咆哮聲。

Kristen, who do you think is more likely, whether it's, and that I have a feeling was canned and prepared because Quayle had this ridiculous habit of comparing himself to Jack Kennedy.

克里斯汀，你認為誰更有可能，是不是，我有一種感覺，這是被炮製和準備的，因為奎伊有這種可笑的習慣，把自己比作傑克-肯尼迪。

Who do you think is more likely to have a winning moment?

你認為誰更有可能獲得勝利？

So I think Biden's fate is entirely in his own hands.

是以，我認為拜登的命運完全掌握在自己手中。

I don't think that there's anything that Trump can do to be the sort of kill shot here.

我不認為特朗普有什麼辦法能在這裡成為致命一擊。

But that means that for Biden, because these expectations are so low, if he does something like, you may recall in the State of the Union a few years ago, he gets into it with Marjorie Taylor Greene and that becomes the clip that everyone remembers.

但這意味著，對拜登來說，由於期望值太低，如果他做了類似幾年前在國情諮文中與瑪喬裡-泰勒-格林發生衝突的事情，那就會成為大家記憶猶新的片段。

I think if Biden exceeds that very low bar, he has the most opportunity for a quote unquote winning moment purely in part because of those expectations.

我認為，如果拜登超越了這一極低的標準，那麼他就最有機會獲得引以為傲的勝利時刻，部分原因就在於這些期望。

Nia, I wanna pick up on that because a lot of people, a lot of people are gonna watch the debate, millions, but a lot of people won't or won't sort of focus on that and will really review what happened in terms of the clips and what's out there the day after.

尼婭，我想談談這個問題，因為很多人，很多人都會觀看辯論，數百萬人，但很多人不會或不會關注這個問題，而是會真正回顧發生了什麼，從剪輯和第二天的內容來看。

Who's more likely to have the winning clip?

誰更有可能獲得勝利？

Listen, I think Biden, if he is spontaneous, right?

聽著，我認為拜登如果是自發的，對嗎？

I don't think he should have sort of prepared lines as much as just off the cuff.

我認為他不應該準備臺詞，而應該隨口說出來。

That's what you saw in the State of the Union.

這就是你們在國情諮文中看到的。

He can be witty, he can be smart and fast on his feet and I think that's what was so great about his State of the Union performance and I think he can bring that here.

他可以詼諧幽默、聰明機智、思維敏捷，我認為這正是他在國情諮文演講中的精彩之處，我認為他可以在這裡發揮這一點。

Again, he is smarter at policy, at doing the job of the presidency than Donald Trump is.

同樣，他在政策和總統工作方面也比唐納德-特朗普聰明。

I mean, that is just an objective fact.

我的意思是，這只是一個客觀事實。

The only thing I'd say back to that is, but Trump is a showman, don't ever underestimate him.

我唯一想說的是，但特朗普是個表演家，千萬別低估了他。