Name: 「先買後付」聽起來很誘人，但背後的風險你真的有了解嗎？ (How Phantom Debt Is Haunting American Consumers)
Uploaded: 2024-06-28T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 11 min 8 s

情態副詞

You've probably seen the option at checkout to split a purchase into separate interest-free installments.

你可能在結帳時看到過將購物抽成不同零利率分期付款的選項。

程度副詞

Buy Now, Pay Later is just a way of spreading out the cost of a purchase over a few installments.

「先買後付」就是一種分期付款的方式。

Usually it's four at zero percent, so it's pretty attractive for a lot of people.

通常情況下，四期零利率，所以對很多人來說都很有吸引力。

The number of Buy Now, Pay Later loans increased nearly 1,100 percent between 2019 and 2021.

2019 年至 2021 年，「先買後付」貸款的數量增長了近 1100%。

That rapid growth has some analysts concerned because where there are loans, there's debt.

這種快速增長令一些分析師感到擔憂，因為有貸款的地方就有債務。

But exactly how much debt is still unclear.

You know, we've often referred to this as phantom debt, where it's sort of flying under the radar, not really something that anybody has a good grasp on.

我們經常說這是幽靈債務，因為它無人知曉，沒有人真正掌握它。

Our back-of-the-envelope estimates put the BNPL market at somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 billion.

根據我們的初步估算，BNPL 市場規模約為 500 億美元。

So you're talking comfortably a third of the transaction increase in credit card volume.

在信用卡交易量的增長中，有三分之一的交易量增長是令人欣慰的。

That could imply that households are more in debt than we even know because we're not really measuring this booming space of Buy Now, Pay Later.

這可能意味著，家庭債務比我們知道的還要多，因為我們沒有真正衡量「先買後付」這一蓬勃發展的領域。

I think you could be missing or misrepresenting how healthy the consumer is.

我認為你可能忽略或歪曲了消費者的健康狀況。

The notion of this phantom debt being out there is just not true.

這種幽靈債務的說法是不正確的。

We know from publicly reported information how many folks are taking out loans and how many of them default, and it's a very, very low number.

我們從公開報導的資訊中瞭解到有多少人在貸款，其中有多少人違約，這個數字非常非常低。

Buy Now, Pay Later users are more financially vulnerable.

「先買後付」用戶的財務狀況更脆弱。

It's those users who are using Buy Now, Pay Later more frequently for household goods, for essentials.

正是這些用戶更頻繁地使用「先買後付」來購買家庭用品和生活必需品。

So that type of user and that type of pattern is the big concern.

這種類型的用戶和這種類型的模式是最令人擔憂的。

Here's why phantom debt is looming over U.S. consumers and the economy.

以下是幽靈債務籠罩美國消費者和經濟的原因。

It was first called phantom debt in this Wells Fargo report that called attention to the fact that there is no hard measure of how many Buy Now, Pay Later loans are out there,

富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的這份報告首次將其稱為「幽靈債務」，該報告呼籲人們關注這樣一個事實，即沒有硬性指標來衡量有多少「先買後付」貸款存在，

how consumers are doing with these loans, whether they're really keeping up with their payments or falling behind.

消費者對這些貸款的使用情況如何，他們是否真的按時還款或拖欠還款。

Not having a clear read of underlying debt burdens in general, particularly for the household sector, can be a concern because you could be assessing the health of the household sector and looking at debt-to-income ratios, net worth being higher across the income spectrum, income growth,

如果不能清楚地瞭解基本債務負擔的總體情況，特別是家庭部門的債務負擔，就會令人擔憂，因為在評估家庭部門的健康狀況時，你可能會關注債務與收入的比率、不同收入階層的淨資產較高、收入增長等所有這些變量，

all of these variables that suggest that the household sector and consumer in general are actually doing fairly well despite elevated inflation and challenges in the broader economy.

這些變量都表明，儘管通膨率升高，整體經濟面臨挑戰，但家庭部門和消費者的總體情況實際上相當不錯。

But if you're missing a piece of that puzzle, right, if you're looking at all of household debt and thinking it's all household debt, but there's this other component that's lurking in the background of this phantom debt Buy Now, Pay Later segment,

但是，如果你忽略了拼圖中的一部分，如果你著眼於所有的家庭債務，並認為這都是家庭債務，但還有另一部分潛伏在「先買後付」這一幽靈債務的背景中，

The most recent information comes from data disclosed at the discretion of individual Buy Now, Pay Later companies, as well as various privately conducted consumer surveys.

最新資訊來自於各家「先買後付」公司自行披露的數據，以及各種私人進行的消費者調查。

This lack of centralized data has made it difficult to reach a consensus about exactly how much high-risk debt is out there.

由於缺乏集中的數據，很難就究竟有多少高風險債務達成共識。

Since Buy Now, Pay Later loans are not currently reported to the major credit reporting agencies, it's a challenge for lenders to know how many loans a consumer has outstanding and how well they're doing paying back those loans.

由於「先買後付」貸款目前並不向主要的信用報告機構報告，所以貸款機構很難知道消費者有多少貸款未償還，以及他們償還貸款的情況如何。

According to Afterpay, one of the major five Buy Now, Pay Later companies, 98% of their purchases did not incur a late fee as of the fourth quarter of 2023.

根據五大「先買後付」公司之一 Afterpay 的數據，截至 2023 年第四季度，其 98% 的購物沒有產生滯納金。

The Financial Technology Association is a trade group that represents four of the largest Buy Now, Pay Later providers, Klarna, Afterpay, Zip and PayPal.

金融技術協會是一個行業組織，代表著四家最大的「先買後付」服務提供商：Klarna、Afterpay、Zip 和 PayPal。

I do think the concern over phantom debt is overblown.

我確實認為對幽靈債務的擔憂被誇大了。

When you look at the industry, even under Wells Fargo's own report in which they estimate the Buy Now, Pay Later industry to be around $45 billion, less than 2% are in default or what we would say not making their payment.

縱觀整個行業，即使根據富國銀行自己的報告，他們估計「先買後付」行業的規模約為 450 億美元，但違約或我們所說的未付款的比例不到 2%。

2% of $45 billion is less than $1 billion.

450 億美元的 2% 還不到 10 億美元。

Compare that to over $1 trillion worth of credit card debt.

與此相比，信用卡債務價值超過 1 兆美元。

And so I think we need to put it in perspective.

所以，我認為我們需要正確看待這個問題。

But a 2024 survey by Harris Poll on behalf of Bloomberg found that 43% of consumers who owe money to Buy Now, Pay Later services said they were behind on payments.

但哈里斯民意調查公司（Harris Poll）代表彭博社於 2024 年進行的一項調查發現，在「先買後付」服務欠款的消費者中，43% 的人表示他們拖欠付款。

Consumer Reports also conducts surveys on the issue.

《消費者報告》也就此問題進行了調查。

We found in one of our surveys that the top reason for using Buy Now, Pay Later was to purchase something that the consumer couldn't otherwise afford.

我們在一項調查中發現，使用「先買後付」的首要原因是為了購買一些消費者買不起的東西。

So it's clear that Buy Now, Pay Later, it can lead to consumers making purchases that they can't repay and then running behind on payments, which then triggers late fees and also just leads to greater accumulation of debt.

所以「先買後付」顯然會導致消費者購買無法償還的商品，然後拖欠付款，進而引發滯納金，並導致債務進一步累積。

Buy Now, Pay Later is similar to layaway programs that became popular during the Great Depression.

先買後付」類似於大蕭條時期流行的分期付款計劃。

Retailers were aware of how little cash Americans had.

零售商都知道美國人的現金很少。

So they created pay structures where the consumer would give a down payment to a retailer in order to pick up an item and then make payments and installments.

所以他們創造了這樣的支付結構：消費者向零售商支付首付款，然後分期付款。

Layaway began to decline in popularity in the 1980s and 1990s when credit cards became more widely available.

1980 年代和 1990 年代，隨著信用卡的普及，分期付款開始走下坡路。

Buy Now, Pay Later doesn't seem to be going in that direction.

「先買後付」似乎並沒有朝著這個方向發展。

Juniper Research estimates that these transactions could reach almost $700 billion by 2028.

據瞻博網絡研究公司估計，到 2028 年，這些交易額將達到近 7000 億美元。

The Wells Fargo report concluded that the Buy Now, Pay Later market may be small now, but we don't know how fast it's growing.

富國銀行的報告認為，「先買後付」市場現在可能還很小，但我們不知道它的增長速度有多快。

It logically follows that we simply cannot know when it will be a problem.

從邏輯上講，我們根本無法知道何時會出現問題。

Just some sort of nationally measured data would be so helpful just to understand really just how big of a burden this is for households.

如果能提供一些全國性的數據，將有助於瞭解這對家庭造成了多大的負擔。

One of the challenges with this source of borrowing is just how unregulated it is.

這種借貸管道面臨的挑戰之一就是它是如此不受監管。

So to my knowledge, there's not many questions that are actually asked before you're offered a Buy Now, Pay Later option when you go to check out.

據我所知，在你結帳時，在提供「先買後付」選項之前，實際要問的問題並不多。

Buy Now, Pay Later companies generally don't report information to the major credit bureaus, which means these loans typically aren't reflected in people's credit scores.

「先買後付」公司一般不向主要信用局報告資訊，這意味著這些貸款通常不會反映在人們的信用評分中。

If someone falls delinquent on one of these loans, it will show up in a bankruptcy report, but that's the only way it shows up on a consumer profile.

如果有人拖欠這些貸款，就會顯示在破產報告中，但這是顯示在消費者檔案中的唯一方式。

There's currently no formal way for economists, regulators, and analysts to know how rapidly Buy Now, Pay Later loan debt is growing, which could lead to unforeseen economic consequences.

目前，經濟學家、監管機構和分析師還沒有正式的方法來了解「先買後付」貸款債務的增長速度，這可能會導致不可預見的經濟後果。

In order to fully or accurately assess the health of the financial sector, you have to accurately understand how much of a debt burden is out there and how that's manageable against the income side for households generally.

為了全面或準確地評估金融業的健康狀況，你必須準確地瞭解債務負擔有多重，以及與一般家庭的收入相比，債務負擔的可控性如何。

The biggest challenge is that regulators just don't know how much exists.

最大的挑戰在於，監管機構並不清楚到底存在多少。

So I think you have regulators trying to regulate this segment similar to credit card debt, even though it's not equivalent, just to, again, wrap their hands around it and have it monitored so that it isn't a area of financial instability from a household debt perspective.

我認為監管機構正試圖對這一領域進行類似於信用卡債務的監管，儘管這並不等同於信用卡債務，只是為了再次將其納入監管範圍，並對其進行監控，以便從家庭債務的角度來看，它不會成為金融不穩定的一個領域。

This lack of scrutiny about whether a consumer can pay back a loan could have consequences for the lenders as well.

這種對消費者是否有能力償還貸款缺乏審查的做法也會給貸款人帶來後果。

Credit scores try to provide an objective assessment of how likely a person is to pay their bills.

信用評分試圖對一個人付款的可能性進行客觀評估。

The average FICO score in the U.S. was 715 in 2023.

2023 年，美國的 FICO 平均分數為 715 分。

Lenders use these scores to set the terms of a loan, which could dictate the spending power of the American consumer.

貸款人利用這些分數來設定貸款條件，這可能會決定美國消費者的消費能力。

Having Buy Now, Pay Later activity separate from the current credit check system prevents lenders from having that data to make an informed decision about whether a consumer is likely to default on the loan.

將「先買後付」活動與當前的信用調查系統分開，會使貸款人無法掌握這些數據，從而對消費者是否可能拖欠貸款做出明智的決定。

But incorporating this data into credit scores can get complicated.

但將這些數據納入信用評分可能會變得複雜。

We believe that somebody consistently paying $25 over the course of four weeks or six weeks consistently, responsibly, on time should be able to score positively.

我們認為，如果一個人在四周或六週內持續、負責任、準時地支付 25 美元，就應該能夠獲得正面評分。

Unfortunately, today, every time you take out a Buy Now, Pay Later loan, it looks like you've maxed out your credit.

不幸的是，如今，每次你申請「先買後付」貸款時，你的信用額度都會被刷爆。

And so, unfortunately, it's scored as a negative.

所以不幸的是，它被記為負分。

So we believe that these products are consumer-friendly.

我們相信這些產品對消費者是友好的。

We believe they should enhance consumer scores, their credit history, and their scoring.

我們認為，他們應該提高消費者的分數、信用記錄和評分。

We have been actively working with the credit rating agencies to be able to think through how to modernize their own scoring to be able to capture that better.

我們一直在積極與信用評級機構合作，以思考如何使他們自己的評分現代化，從而更好地捕捉到這一點。

And there's also consumer protections built into the Buy Now, Pay Later products.

此外，「先買後付」產品還內置了消費者保護功能。

If you are late on a payment, you are paused until you complete your payments.

如果你逾期付款，將被暫停服務，直到你完成付款。

That's different than one in which you're able to have a revolving debt and pay interest on it.

這與你可以擁有循環債務並支付利息的情況不同。

So there's consumer protections that are built in there.

The caveat to those safeguards is that the companies don't communicate with one another.

這些保障措施需要注意的是，這些公司之間並不相互溝通。

If a user is behind on a loan from a specific Buy Now, Pay Later company, they can still take out a loan from a different one.

如果用戶拖欠了某家「先買後付」公司的貸款，他們還可以向另一家公司貸款。

That's problematic because if you are a consumer who does rely on Buy Now, Pay Later and who has maybe a few outstanding installments,

這就有問題了，因為如果你是一個依賴於 「先買後付」的消費者，而且可能有幾筆未償還的分期付款，

that would go against how much more leverage you can take out or how much more a lender provider would be willing to lend you money just based on your debt-to-income ratio generally.

這就會影響到你可以拿出更多的槓桿，或者貸款提供商願意根據你的債務與收入比率借給你更多的錢。

So I think it's problematic in that it doesn't show up in the credit profile for lenders because it's sort of they're taking on a risk that they're not aware of potentially.

我認為這是有問題的，因為它不會顯示在貸款人的信用檔案中，因為這是一種他們沒有意識到的潛在風險。

While there is not currently a solution for tackling the credit score mismatch, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued an interpretive rule in May of 2024 that says Buy Now, Pay Later firms must comply with certain U.S. credit card laws.

雖然目前還沒有解決信用評分不匹配問題的方案，但消費者金融保護局於 2024 年 5 月發佈了一項解釋性規則，規定「先買後付」公司必須遵守某些美國信用卡法律。

It's recognizing Buy Now, Pay Later as a form of a credit card.

它承認「先買後付」是信用卡的一種形式。

So that regulation means that the industry must make refunds for returned products or canceled services.

該規定意味著該行業必須為退回的產品或取消的服務退款。

They need to investigate merchant disputes and pause payments during those probes as well as providing bills that have full fee disclosures so customers know exactly the interest rate or the late fees that could apply.

他們需要調查商戶糾紛，在調查期間暫停付款，並提供有完整費用披露的賬單，讓客戶清楚地知道可能適用的利率或滯納金。

Those provisions are a really important step forward because many Buy Now, Pay Later users have highlighted issues with disputes when they receive a faulty product or they don't receive the product at all,

這些規定確實是向前邁出的重要一步，因為許多 「先買後付」的用戶都強調，當他們收到有問題的產品或根本沒有收到產品時，他們會遇到糾紛問題，

and they get the runaround on who to go to to stop payment or what happens when they return the product and how they get a refund from the Buy Now, Pay Later provider.

他們會被「先買後付」的廠商刁難，不知道該找誰停止付款，或者當他們退回產品時會發生什麼情況，以及如何獲得退款。

So it's a useful first step to address one of the biggest concerns for consumers.

這是解決消費者最關心的問題之一的有益的第一步。

We appreciate CFPB trying to put some definition around Buy Now, Pay Later, what it means to be a Buy Now, Pay Later company and many of the things that they are asking for companies to do,

我們讚賞 CFPB 試圖對「先買後付」、「先買後付 」公司的含義以及他們要求公司做的許多事情做出一些定義，

such as full disclosure of fees, transparency on kind of what returns are.

如全面披露費用、回報的透明度等。

So to try to level set the industry and to ensure that all of those that are claiming or wanting to be or advertising as Buy Now, Pay Later, that they're still meeting the same standards that our companies have.

我們要努力提高行業水準，確保所有聲稱或希望成為「先買後付」公司的公司，或宣傳「先買後付」的公司，都能達到與我們公司相同的標準。

Most experts say that this new regulation just doesn't go far enough.

大多數專家認為，這項新規定的力度還不夠。

It's really just the tip of the iceberg because it doesn't get at the bigger problem, which is how to account for the spant of debt.

這其實只是冰山一角，因為它並沒有觸及更大的問題，即如何解釋債務支出。

If these Buy Now, Pay Later providers are compelled to report their data to credit reporting agencies, then we would have this central agency monitoring the ballooning space of Buy Now, Pay Later.

如果這些「先買後付 」服務廠商被迫向信用報告機構報告其數據，那麼我們就會有一箇中央機構來監控「先買後付」這一日益膨脹的市場。

We think that the CFPB really needs to go further and require Buy Now, Pay Later providers to assess a consumer's ability to repay and to have reasonable late fees.

我們認為 CFPB 確實需要更進一步，要求「先買後付 」服務提供商評估消費者的還款能力，並收取合理的滯納金。

In general, we're very concerned with consumers becoming more and more overextended, especially in these current times with inflation and economic pressures.

總的來說，我們非常擔心消費者變得越來越過度消費，尤其是在當前通貨膨脹和經濟壓力下。

It's showing in increasing credit card delinquencies and it's showing in the consumer surveys of Buy Now, Pay Later users who are increasingly missing payments.

這表現在信用卡拖欠率不斷上升，也表現在「先買後付 」用戶的消費者調查中，他們越來越多地錯過付款。

There are a lot of new initiatives in this space because it's been so popular.

由於這個領域非常受歡迎，所以有很多新的舉措。

我的意思是，它顯然不會不見。

We're going to keep seeing Buy Now, Pay Later.

我們將繼續看到「先買後付 」的現象。

It's just a question of whether consumers are going to be able to keep on top of it.

問題在於消費者能否繼續控制這種情況。