Name: 教授稱中國存在 "週期性問題 (There's a 'cyclical problem' in China, professor says)
Uploaded: 2024-06-24T03:22:36.000Z
Duration: 2 min 39 s

China's economy is still in recovery mode and is also in transition.

中國經濟仍處於復甦階段，也處於轉型期。

程度副詞

So, everything is just going to take time.

Let's not forget that, first of all, China was the last to exit really the pandemic lockdowns.

我們不要忘記，首先，中國是最後一個真正退出大流行病封鎖的國家。

And Chinese households never got the kind of stimulus packages, government support that most other countries, especially in the U.S., U.K. had.

中國家庭從未獲得過其他大多數國家，尤其是美國和英國所擁有的經濟刺激計劃和政府支持。

And U.S., what, $5 trillion of support package, that wasn't there.

而美國，什麼，5 萬億美元的一攬子支持，這是不存在的。

The second is the transition to, let's say, less quantity, higher quality, going for tech innovation.

其次是向科技創新轉型，比方說，減少數量，提高質量。

Think about the government stimulus package.

Let's not repeat what happened after 2009.

讓我們不要重蹈 2009 年之後的覆轍。

The second is China is in kind of going, transitioning to a new mode of higher value added.

二是中國正在向高附加值的新模式轉型。

Let's harness the resources due to high-tech investment, renewables and all that.

讓我們利用高科技投資、可再生能源等帶來的資源。

That's not going to replace real estate in terms of that.

在這方面，這不會取代房地產。

So, China has to kind of feel the short-term pain for maybe the longer-term gains of productivity.

是以，中國必須承受短期的痛苦，以換取長期的生產力增長。

But I personally feel that currently there's a cyclical problem here in China, which is an enormous aggregate demand deficit.

但我個人認為，目前中國存在一個週期性問題，即巨大的總需求赤字。

And you kind of need to just give the right medicine to the right problem.

I think that's not really the urgent issue.

我認為這並不是最緊迫的問題。

This lack of demand, you need to give a big stimulus package.

在這種需求不足的情況下，就需要大搞經濟刺激計劃。

So, a lot of this is psychological, on the part of the consumer.

是以，這在很大程度上是消費者的心理作用。

We've been hearing about Chinese prices continuing to drop in this whole deflation situation where if it gets into people's minds, they'll be thinking like, heck, why should I buy something today?

我們一直聽說中國的物價在通貨緊縮的情況下持續下降，如果這種情況進入人們的頭腦，他們就會想，我今天為什麼要買東西？

It might be cheaper tomorrow or next week or next month, right?

明天、下週或下個月可能會更便宜，對吧？

I mean, what can the government do to change that?

我的意思是，政府能做些什麼來改變這種狀況呢？

Because it's about confidence when they're worried about the roof over their heads or whether their son or daughter is able to find a falling prices was largely in durable goods, cars, let's say.

因為這關乎信心，當他們擔心自己頭上的屋頂，或他們的兒子或女兒是否能夠找到一個價格下降的主要是耐用品，比方說汽車。

But I think we really exited out of that particular cycle.

但我認為，我們真的走出了那個特定的週期。

There was also a misconception, which is deflation is primarily driven by food and in particular pork.

還有一種誤解，即通貨緊縮主要是由食品，特別是豬肉推動的。

I don't think China is really in a deflationary trap like Japan was, for instance.

我不認為中國真的像日本那樣陷入了通貨緊縮的陷阱。

And now you're seeing kind of the prices slowly starting to rise again.

現在，你們看到價格又開始慢慢上漲了。

I mean, in the sense that consumers, because of the feel that, well, is economies really back?

我的意思是，從消費者的感覺來看，經濟真的回來了嗎？

Is there, you know, their wages going to be stable?

I think, you know, we've seen nominal wage growth, but what about real wage growth and what about actual wages?

我想，你知道，我們已經看到了名義工資的增長，但實際工資增長和實際工資又如何呢？

 They need to feel more certainty in able to, in order to be wanted to spend on the big ticket items.

他們需要對自己的能力有更多的確定感，才會願意在大件商品上消費。