Name: 何時賣出 Nvidia 股票？| NVDA 股票分析 (When Should You Sell Nvidia Stock? | NVDA Stock Analysis)
Uploaded: 2024-06-23T13:19:21.000Z
Duration: 10 min 7 s

Alright, Nvidia is now trading on a split-adjusted basis, $120 per share as of this recording.

好了，Nvidia 現在的股價是在拆分調整後的基礎上，截至本錄音，每股 120 美元。

So now the next question becomes, when should you sell Nvidia stock?

那麼，下一個問題來了，什麼時候應該賣出 Nvidia 股票？

情態副詞

Many investors have made a great deal of return on their investment in Nvidia stock, and so now they're wondering, if now's the time to sell it, at what price should they sell it, what specifically should they look for when deciding when to sell Nvidia stock?

許多投資者在投資 Nvidia 股票後獲得了豐厚的回報，是以他們現在想知道，如果現在是賣出的時機，應該以什麼價格賣出，在決定何時賣出 Nvidia 股票時具體應該注意什麼？

So I'll cover those questions in this video.

是以，我將在本視頻中介紹這些問題。

I'll go over what I look at when I'm considering selling an investment and taking profits in an investment.

在考慮出售一項投資和在一項投資中獲利時，我將詳細介紹我所關注的內容。

I want to thank TheMotleyFool for sponsoring this video.

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請訪問 fool.com slash parkev，查看現在最值得購買的 10 只股票。

So like I highlighted, Nvidia stock price has absolutely exploded.

是以，就像我強調的那樣，Nvidia 的股價絕對是爆炸性的增長。

I have here a 10-year chart of Nvidia stock price on a split-adjusted basis, and you can see just in the last year and a half alone, the stock price has tripled from less than $40 per share up to $120 per share as of this recording.

我這裡有一張按拆分調整後的 Nvidia 10 年股價圖，你可以看到，僅在過去一年半的時間裡，股價就從每股不到 40 美元漲到了現在的 120 美元，翻了三番。

If you go back further, the stock price was closer to $10 or $5 per share in 2019 on a split-adjusted basis.

如果再往前追溯，經拆分調整後，2019 年的股價接近每股 10 美元或 5 美元。

And so Nvidia has really gained tremendously over a relatively short period of time.

是以，Nvidia 確實在相對較短的時間內獲得了巨大的發展。

And that has a lot of investors concerned.

It has a lot of investors worried about, should they sell it now?

這讓很多投資者擔心，他們現在應該賣掉它嗎？

They don't want to feel like they missed their opportunity to sell.

他們不想覺得自己錯過了銷售機會。

They don't want to feel like this is the high-water mark, and if they don't sell now, the stock price drops.

他們不想覺得現在是高價位，如果現在不賣，股價就會下跌。

But that's not what I look at when I'm deciding if I should sell or buy or hold a stock.

但我在決定是否應該賣出、買入或持有一隻股票時，看的不是這個。

The market price is important, yes, but what I look for more importantly is what I'm getting in return.

市場價格固然重要，但我更看重的是我能得到什麼回報。

What I'm getting in return is more important than the price.

Because similar to when you go to a store, let's say you're shopping for one tire.

因為就像你去商店買東西一樣，比方說你要買一個輪胎。

But then you go back to the store, and now that tire, or a set of tires, instead of it being $100, there's now a set of tires for sale for $300, for four tires.

但當你回到商店，發現那個輪胎或一套輪胎不再是 100 美元，而是 300 美元一套，四個輪胎。

When previously you could only buy one tire for $100, now it's four tires for $300.

以前 100 美元只能買一個輪胎，現在 300 美元就能買四個輪胎。

So the price per tire has actually decreased, but the price increased to $300.

是以，每個輪胎的價格實際上下降了，但價格卻增加到 300 美元。

And that's not unsimilar to the way I evaluate stocks.

這與我評估股票的方法不謀而合。

Sure, the price might increase, but what you're getting in return has also changed.

當然，價格可能會提高，但你得到的回報也發生了變化。

You're not getting the same thing you were getting in 2020.

你得到的和 2020 年得到的不一樣。

You're getting a different investment with different characteristics, with a different profit profile, with different cash flow, with different competitive advantages.

你得到的投資具有不同的特點、不同的利潤狀況、不同的現金流和不同的競爭優勢。

So those have all changed in those years.

是以，這些年來都發生了變化。

So if you're just looking at the price, you're only looking at one side of the equation.

是以，如果你只看價格，那你只看到了等式的一面。

You're not looking at what you're getting in return to evaluate the total value.

在評估總價值時，你並不看你得到了什麼回報。

And so I always suggest to look at the price, but also what you're getting in return.

是以，我總是建議在看價格的同時，也要看你能得到什麼回報。

And the key things to look at what you're getting in return is earnings per share, or free cash flow, or sales, if you're looking at a company that doesn't have consistent profitability.

如果你看到的是一家沒有持續盈利能力的公司，那麼關鍵是要看你得到的回報是每股收益、自由現金流還是銷售額。

But more importantly, the one I look at, the metric I look at most is the forward price to earnings.

但更重要的是，我最看重的指標是遠期市盈率。

To tell me what I'm getting for the price that I'm paying in with NVIDIA, the forward price to earnings ratio hasn't changed all that much.

為了讓我知道我花了多少錢買了英偉達，遠期市盈率並沒有太大變化。

It hasn't changed as dramatically as the stock price has changed.

它並沒有像股價變化那樣劇烈。

As you can see here, the forward PE is at 34.

So even though the price has been increasing, the valuation has remained relatively the same because NVIDIA's earnings have increased.

是以，儘管價格一直在上漲，但估值卻相對保持不變，因為英偉達的盈利增加了。

So as an investor, they're giving you a lot more in return.

是以，作為投資者，他們會給你更多的回報。

So the market price is higher, but what you're getting in return is also a lot more.

是以，市場價格更高，但你得到的回報也更多。

It's like going to a store and instead of just buying one tire for $100, you're buying four tires for $300.

這就好比你去商店買輪胎，不是花 100 美元買一個，而是花 300 美元買四個。

You're paying a higher price, but you're getting more in return.

你付出了更高的代價，卻得到了更多的回報。

You're paying a much higher price than you were three years ago, but you're getting much more.

你付出的代價比三年前高得多，但你得到的卻更多。

And I'm speaking on a split adjusted basis.

So for that reason, NVIDIA's price per dollar of earnings hasn't changed all that much.

是以，英偉達每美元收益的價格變化不大。

You're not paying that much more for a share of NVIDIA in terms of the earnings you're getting.

就收益而言，你並沒有為英偉達的股票多支付多少錢。

In fact, the earnings expectations have been rising.

事實上，收益預期一直在上升。

So I have here what the Wall Street analysts are forecasting for earnings per share for NVIDIA.

我這裡有華爾街分析師對英偉達每股收益的預測。

And keep in mind here, these numbers here from 90 days ago were on a pre-split basis.

請記住，90 天前的這些數據是在拆分前的基礎上得出的。

So the current estimate here is just one tenth of the previous estimate because you've now got a ten for one split.

是以，目前的估算值只是之前估算值的十分之一，因為現在的估算值是一賠十。

And so if you look at 90 days ago, the analysts that were following NVIDIA stock, they were forecasting its next year earnings per share of $29.87.

是以，如果你看看 90 天前，關注英偉達股票的分析師預測其明年的每股收益為 29.87 美元。

And that increased to $30.63, $31.30, $35.66, and now $36 if you look on a split equivalent basis.

如果按分拆等值計算，則增至 30.63 美元、31.30 美元、35.66 美元，現在是 36 美元。

So their earnings per share expectations have continuously increased over the last 90 days as the stock price has increased.

是以，在過去的 90 天裡，隨著股價的上漲，他們對每股收益的預期也不斷提高。

So the stock price increase has been justified by an increase in earnings per share and in earnings per share expectations for the future.

是以，每股收益的增加和對未來每股收益的預期都證明了股價的上漲是合理的。

It's similar story when you look at the current year earnings per share from $24.50 expected to $24.48, to $24.85, $26.99, and now $27.10.

今年的每股收益也是如此，從預期的 24.50 美元到 24.48 美元，再到 24.85 美元、26.99 美元，再到現在的 27.10 美元。

So as enthusiastic as investors have been about NVIDIA stock and its profit expectations, they've kept going higher and higher and higher because the results keep coming in much better than expected.

是以，儘管投資者對英偉達股票及其利潤預期充滿熱情，但由於業績不斷好於預期，投資者的熱情也越來越高。

The results just keep getting better and better and better.

Here's a chart of NVIDIA's cash flow from operations on a quarterly basis.

以下是英偉達每個季度的營運現金流圖表。

Look at that explosion here in cash flow from operations. $15.35 billion in cash flow from operations in one quarter.

看看這裡的營運現金流爆炸性增長。一個季度的營運現金流就達到了 153.5 億美元。

Prior to 2024, they had never achieved a quarter even close to $4 billion in cash flow from operations.

在 2024 年之前，他們從未有過一個季度的營運現金流接近 40 億美元。

They've now delivered a quarter with $15.35 billion.

目前，他們已在一個季度內交付了 153.5 億美元。

So roughly four times the cash flow from operations in the most recent quarter and the company expects this to continue for at least the foreseeable future, according to what NVIDIA is saying.

根據英偉達的說法，這大約是最近一個季度營運現金流的四倍，而且公司預計這種情況至少會在可預見的未來持續下去。

Management is saying that demand for its products continues to outpace supply.

管理層表示，其產品仍然供不應求。

And they introduced a new innovation this year, the Blackwell technology, which will be going in as we speak.

今年，他們還推出了一項新的創新技術--布萊克韋爾技術。

It's going in, will be installed by the end of the year.

And then they already announced the next generation to Blackwell, the Rubin technology, which will be coming out next year.

然後，他們已經宣佈了 Blackwell 的下一代產品，即 Rubin 技術，將於明年問世。

So as competition is trying to catch up to NVIDIA's older generation technology, they're already two generations ahead with newer technology.

是以，當競爭對手都在努力追趕英偉達的老一代技術時，他們已經憑藉更新的技術領先了兩代。

So all that being said, the stock price is much higher, I agree, but the company is in a much better position than it was to justify that increase in stock price.

是以，綜上所述，股價是高了，我同意，但公司現在的狀況比以前要好得多，這也是股價上漲的原因。

So to answer the question, when should you sell NVIDIA stock?

那麼，什麼時候應該賣出英偉達股票呢？

When you start to notice this valuation getting extreme, when you start to notice this forward price to earnings ratio rising closer to 45, closer to 50, and when you notice the earnings per share expectations starting to decrease instead of increase, that's when you should start to consider selling NVIDIA stock.

當你開始注意到估值變得極端，當你開始注意到遠期市盈率上升到接近 45 或接近 50，當你注意到每股收益預期開始下降而不是上升時，你就應該開始考慮賣出英偉達股票了。

When the stock price increases, start to disconnect from the fundamental improvements in the company's profitability and cash flow.

當股價上漲時，開始與公司盈利能力和現金流的根本改善脫節。

That's when you should start to consider selling NVIDIA stock.

這時，你就應該開始考慮賣出英偉達股票了。

As of right now, I'm not seeing any evidence of that.

目前，我還沒有看到任何這方面的證據。

I'm seeing the earnings prospects improving as this year has progressed.

隨著今年的進展，我看到盈利前景正在改善。

So far, I don't see any signs of difficulty for NVIDIA stock and NVIDIA stock investors.

到目前為止，我還沒有看到英偉達股票和英偉達股票投資者遇到困難的跡象。

Now, that might change soon and rapidly and out of nowhere, something unexpected.

現在，這種情況可能很快就會發生變化，而且會突然發生一些意想不到的事情。

There's always the risk of that happening, so that's something to keep in mind.

發生這種情況的風險總是存在的，所以這一點要牢記在心。

 But in terms of the actual profit and business and what's ahead, the company has delivered profit growth to support the increases in stock price.

但就實際利潤和業務以及未來發展而言，公司已經實現了利潤增長，為股價上漲提供了支持。

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何時賣出 Nvidia 股票？| NVDA 股票分析 (When Should You Sell Nvidia Stock? | NVDA Stock Analysis)

absolutely

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progress

regret