Name: 伯恩斯坦公司的 Rasgon 說，從其發展軌跡和數據來看，英偉達的股價下跌並不令人意外 (Nvidia's stock is not surprising given its trajectory and the numbers, says Bernstein's Rasgon)
Uploaded: 2024-06-21T02:55:33.000Z
Duration: 4 min 20 s

Joining us this morning is Stacey Rasgun, Bernstein Research Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Analyst, has an outperform and a target of $130,000.

今天上午加入我們的是 Bernstein Research 常務董事兼高級半導體分析師 Stacey Rasgun。

That is below the current price, Stacey, and we've seen some $150,000, some, I think Rosenblatt said $200,000.

斯泰西，這低於目前的價格，我們已經看到一些 15 萬美元，一些，我想羅森布拉特說的是 20 萬美元。

Look, we've had this conversation before.

聽著，我們以前就談過這個問題。

We don't change the target price every other day, and the stock's had a really good run, especially recently.

我們不會隔三差五地改變目標價，這隻股票的走勢非常好，尤其是最近。

Look, it's going to be earnings and it's going to be multiples.

聽著，這將是收益，這將是倍數。

You look at where it's trading, multiples come up, it's probably mid-40s now, which is not that bad.

你看看它的交易價格，倍數也上來了，現在大概在 40 多美元，還不算太差。

It's not bad at all, frankly, given the growth it's had.

坦率地說，考慮到它的發展，這一點也不錯。

I think it was mid-60s before the run started a year ago.

我想在一年前開始運行之前是 60 多歲。

You know, but you look at kind of like the trajectory of where they're on, you look at where the numbers are going, like, it's not surprising that the stock has had the run that it's had, and we'll revisit the target in good time, you know, depending on how things go.

你知道，但你看看他們現在的發展軌跡，你看看這些數字的走向，股價有這樣的表現並不奇怪，我們會根據情況適時重新審視目標。

Don't take the individual sell-side target too seriously at any given point in time.

在任何時候，都不要把賣方目標看得太重。

No, you're right, and it's been hard to keep up with NVIDIA in general.

不，你是對的，一般來說，我們很難跟上英偉達的步伐。

Yeah, if you've been recommending it, no doubt about it.

是啊，如果你一直在推薦它，那就毫無疑問了。

I do want to drill in a little bit, though, on sort of the valuation, where it has been before, because I've been trying to make the point that it was at a higher forward PE when the forward estimates were way, way too low, OK?

不過，我還想再深入探討一下估值的問題，因為我一直想說明的是，在遠期估值過低的時候，遠期市盈率較高，好嗎？

In the last four quarters, they were low by 50 percent or even actually 100 percent.

在過去的四個季度中，它們都低了 50%，甚至實際上低了 100%。

So in other words, it really, a year ago, was trading at 22 times the earnings we got, not 45 or 50.

是以，換句話說，一年前，它的市盈率確實是 22 倍，而不是 45 或 50 倍。

So I wonder where that sits now in terms of whether you think the earnings outlook on a consensus basis has caught up with what reality is likely to be.

是以，我想知道，您認為盈利前景的共識是否已經與現實情況相符。

Yeah, I would say I think the buy side, my clients, their expectations are probably above where the sell side is, which is not an atypical sort of thing, frankly.

是的，我認為買方、我的客戶，他們的期望值可能高於賣方，坦率地說，這並不是非典型的事情。

But yeah, I think the sell side estimates for next year, you're probably what, mid-30s in EPS.

是的，我認為賣方對明年的估計是，每股收益在 30 美元左右。

I'm sure the buy side is well as $40 plus for next year.

我相信買方明年的收入肯定會超過 40 美元。

So you're talking, I think you're talking pre-split numbers.

所以你說的，我想你說的是拆分前的數字。

I'm sorry, pre-split, divide all of my- Drop a zero off, but you're right.

對不起，分割前，把我所有的-- 去掉一個零，但你是對的。

零分，但你明白我的意思，對嗎？

And that's the reason why, frankly, why the stock has been running.

坦率地說，這就是股價一直上漲的原因。

I always say the numbers that are really important, it's not my numbers or my colleagues' numbers, it's my clients' numbers.

我總是說，真正重要的數字不是我的數字，也不是同事的數字，而是客戶的數字。

That's why stocks sometimes will go up on bad prints or down on good prints sometimes if you don't meet those buy side expectations.

這就是為什麼如果你沒有達到買方的預期，股票有時會因印刷品不好而上漲，有時則會因印刷品好而下跌。

I do think buy side expectations are higher, but I don't think the buy side expectations are nuts either.

我確實認為買方的預期更高，但我也不認為買方的預期是瘋狂的。

They're very plausible given the trajectory they've been on, the product cycles that they have.

從他們的發展軌跡和產品週期來看，這些都很有道理。

They're launching a brand new cycle at the end of this year.

他們將在今年年底推出一個全新的週期。

They'll have all of next year to sell it at higher ASPs, higher content, and frankly, even higher demand, like the demand showing no signs of slowing at this point.

明年，他們將有時間以更高的平均售價、更高的內容，坦白說，甚至更高的需求來銷售這款產品，因為目前的需求還沒有放緩的跡象。

Yeah, and Jensen has said we're going to see a lot of Blackwell revenues this year.

是的，詹森說今年我們會看到很多布萊克韋爾的收入。

Stacey, I'm wondering how you think about how much share of the market of the AI spend for chips, et cetera, is going to Nvidia versus competitors, what we've seen in AMD in the past month or so is a real drop off.

斯泰西，我想知道你是如何看待 Nvidia 在芯片等人工智能領域的市場份額與競爭對手相比的？

I'm wondering where you see that sort of rivalry, if you could even call it that at this point.

我想知道你在哪裡看到這種競爭，如果你現在還能這樣稱呼它的話。

Frankly, the most relevant second source, it's probably not even the other merchant suppliers like AMD and Intel.

坦率地說，最相關的第二個來源，可能還不是 AMD 和英特爾等其他商家供應商。

It's folks like Broadcom who are making chips for the hyperscalers, who are by and large doing their own chips, at least for their own internal workloads.

像 Broadcom 這樣為超級計算機制造芯片的公司，基本上都在製造自己的芯片，至少是為自己的內部工作負載製造芯片。

Broadcom, their AI revenue guide for this year is like $11 billion or more.

博通公司（Broadcom），他們今年的人工智能收入指南大概是 110 億美元或更多。

I bet of that $11 billion, seven or eight of it is probably like what they call ASICs, but these custom chips that they're making for Google and Meta and that sort of thing.

我敢打賭，在這 110 億美元中，有七八成可能是他們所謂的 ASIC，即為谷歌和 Meta 等公司定製的芯片。

AMD, they've said, quote unquote, more than $4 billion.

他們說，AMD 的報價超過 40 億美元。

I suspect investor expectations are closer to five to six, which I don't want to knock AMD too much.

我猜測投資者的期望值更接近五到六倍，我不想對 AMD 打擊太大。

It was zero a year ago, so even zero to four over a year is a lot.

一年前是零，所以即使一年內從零到四也不少了。

Intel said they'll do $500 million in the back half.

英特爾表示，他們將在下半年投入 5 億美元。

I mean, NVIDIA is probably going to do $100 billion, so you can kind of see where the dollars are flowing.

我的意思是，英偉達（NVIDIA）公司可能會投入 1000 億美元，所以你可以看到資金的流向。

But that's sort of a breakdown of where share is today.

但這只是目前份額的一個分類。

英偉達™（NVIDIA®）仍然佔據著絕大部分份額。