Name: 中國房地產危機為何愈演愈烈？ (Why China’s Property Crisis is Still Getting Worse)
Uploaded: 2024-06-20T10:19:23.000Z
Duration: 8 min 25 s

基礎被動語態

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分詞構句

On Monday, China's National Bureau of Statistics released home price data for the last month, showing that new home prices in China's urban areas fell by 0.7% between April and May, while second-hand homes fell by 1%.

本週一，中國國家統計局公佈了上個月的房價數據，數據顯示，4月至5月，中國城市新建住宅價格下降了0.7%，二手住宅價格下降了1%。

程度副詞

What makes this data especially worrying for the CCP, though, is not just that it was the steepest decline in new house prices since October 2014, and the steepest decline in second-hand homes since at least 2011, but also that it comes only weeks after Beijing announced its most generous housing support package yet. So in this video, we're going to take yet another look at China's ongoing housing slump, why things are getting worse and look unlikely to improve any time soon, and why this will probably exacerbate China's escalating trade frictions with the rest of the world.

不過，令中共尤為擔憂的是，這一數據不僅是新房價格自2014年10月以來的最大跌幅，也是二手房價格至少自2011年以來的最大跌幅，而且是在中國政府宣佈最慷慨的住房支持計劃僅數週之後出現的。是以，在本視頻中，我們將再次審視中國持續的房地產低迷，為什麼情況會越來越糟，而且看起來不可能很快得到改善，以及為什麼這可能會加劇中國與世界其他國家不斷升級的貿易摩擦。

Before we get into it, we recently announced that we're launching a physical magazine which will feature major articles on things like the rising tensions between the US and China, and the US 2024 election.

在進入正題之前，我們最近宣佈將推出一本實體雜誌，主要內容包括中美緊張局勢加劇、美國 2024 年大選等。

So if you want to support our journalism, consider learning more or buying a copy by clicking the link in the description. So let's start with a quick recap.

是以，如果您想支持我們的新聞報道，請考慮瞭解更多資訊，或點擊描述中的鏈接購買一本。讓我們先來簡單回顧一下。

We've done a whole load of videos on China's housing crisis in the past, so you can go and watch those if you want to know more, but the TLDR is that China has some of the most expensive housing in the entire world.

過去，我們製作了大量關於中國住房危機的視頻，如果你想了解更多，可以去觀看。

Now, incomplete data and the complicated way that housing interacts with the hukou system make international comparison a bit difficult, but analysis by Kaixin in 2021 estimated that property prices in China's biggest cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai were more than 20 times the median income, making them by far and away the most expensive in the world, and roughly twice as unaffordable as popular western cities like London or New York.

現在，不完整的數據以及住房與戶口制度之間複雜的互動方式使得國際比較有些困難，但根據開心網 2021 年的分析估計，深圳、北京和上海等中國最大城市的房價是收入中位數的 20 多倍，是迄今為止世界上最昂貴的城市，其難以負擔程度大約是倫敦或紐約等西方熱門城市的兩倍。

Property now accounts for an estimated 20-30% of all economic activity, and 75% of all Chinese household wealth.

目前，房地產估計佔所有經濟活動的 20-30%，佔中國家庭財富的 75%。

For context, in the UK, which is also suffering through some sort of housing crisis, property accounts for about 36% of all household wealth, about half as much as in China. Now, these ridiculously high prices are mostly a consequence of China's rapid urbanization in the 80s and 90s, which generated unprecedented demand for urban real estate.

在英國，房地產約佔家庭總財富的 36%，約為中國的一半。現在，這些高得離譜的房價主要是上世紀八九十年代中國快速城市化的結果，當時對城市房地產產生了前所未有的需求。

To take advantage of this boom, Chinese property developers took out enormous loans, but as the rate of both population growth and urbanization has slowed, these developers began struggling with their debt burdens.

但隨著人口增長和城市化進程的放緩，這些開發商開始在債務負擔中掙扎。

Conscious of the dangerous levels of debt being built up, in 2020, the CCP tried to actively deleverage the Chinese property sector by placing limits on how much they could borrow.

意識到債務積累到了危險的程度，2020 年，中共試圖通過限制借款額度，積極為中國房地產行業去槓桿。

These measures forced some developers to default, most notably Evergrande, and sparked a wider deflation in China's property sector by dampening some of the speculative demand for Chinese real estate.

這些措施迫使一些開發商違約，其中最著名的是恆大，並通過抑制對中國房地產的部分投機性需求，引發了中國房地產行業更廣泛的通貨緊縮。

Anyway, as a result, prices have been falling ever since.

總之，自那以後，價格一直在下降。

The CCP probably anticipated a drop in prices as at least a foreseen, if unintended, consequence of their deleveraging efforts.

中共可能預料到了價格下跌，這至少是其去槓桿化努力的一個可預見的後果，即使是非預期的後果。

But in the last 12 months or so, as prices have continued to fall, Beijing has come under pressure to do something about it, and prevent a full-on collapse in the Chinese property sector. Originally, the CCP resisted doing anything too drastic to stem the decline, in part because they didn't want to just re-inflate the bubble.

但在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，隨著房價的持續下跌，中國政府面臨著壓力，必須採取措施，防止中國房地產行業全面崩潰。最初，中國共產黨抵制採取過激行動阻止房價下跌，部分原因是他們不想讓保麗龍再次膨脹。

But last month, Beijing announced new measures to try and boost demand in the hundreds of billions of yuan for local governments to buy up spare inventory.

但上個月，中國政府宣佈了新的措施，試圖用數千億元人民幣來刺激地方政府購買閒置庫存的需求。

Unfortunately for the CCP, these measures haven't worked at all.

不幸的是，中共的這些措施根本沒有奏效。

As we mentioned in the intro, in May, house prices fell at their fastest rate in at least a decade, meaning that new homes have now fallen by 4.3% in the last year, while second-hand homes have fallen by 7.5%. So, why didn't these measures work?

正如我們在引言中提到的，5 月份，房價以至少十年來最快的速度下跌，這意味著新房在去年下跌了 4.3%，而二手房下跌了 7.5%。那麼，為什麼這些措施沒有奏效呢？

Well, as we see it, the most likely reason is that Chinese already have too much debt, so they're not going to take out mortgages when prices are falling, even if Beijing makes these mortgages a bit cheaper or more accessible.

在我們看來，最有可能的原因是中國人已經揹負了太多的債務，所以他們不會在房價下跌的時候去抵押貸款，即使中國政府讓這些抵押貸款變得更便宜或更容易獲得。

On top of that, some of the demand for Chinese real estate was previously driven by speculation.

此外，中國房地產的部分需求以前是由投機推動的。

In other words, people were buying property not as housing, but as investments, because property prices in urban areas have been steadily rising ever since the 80s.

換句話說，人們買房不是為了居住，而是為了投資，因為自上世紀 80 年代以來，城市地區的房價一直在穩步上漲。

Given that prices have fallen consistently for nearly three years, housing no longer looks like a safe investment, and these speculative buyers won't be tempted to re-enter the market by cheap mortgages. Anyway, by this point you might be thinking, what's wrong with all of this?

鑑於房價已經持續下跌了近三年，住房不再是一項安全的投資，這些投機性購房者也不會受到廉價抵押貸款的誘惑而重新進入市場。總之，說到這裡，你可能會想，這一切有什麼不對嗎？

Surely falling property prices are a good thing, given that housing in China was clearly both too expensive for ordinary Chinese people, and driven in part by speculative demand.

房價下跌肯定是件好事，因為對於普通中國人來說，中國的住房顯然太貴了，而且部分是由投機性需求驅動的。

While this might be good for China's domestic economy eventually, and perhaps the CCP deserve credit for actively trying to deflate their housing bubble, the problem is that Chinese households are already over-leveraged.

雖然這最終可能有利於中國國內經濟的發展，而且中國共產黨積極努力化解房地產保麗龍的做法或許值得稱讚，但問題是中國家庭的槓桿率已經過高。

In other words, many Chinese households have taken out significant amounts of debt via mortgages, which means that when property prices fall, they go into what's called negative equity.

換句話說，許多中國家庭通過抵押貸款揹負了大量債務，這意味著當房地產價格下跌時，他們就會陷入所謂的負資產。

In other words, their property is worth less than the remaining value of their mortgage.

換句話說，他們的財產價值低於抵押貸款的剩餘價值。

This both significantly increases the risk of bankruptcy, but also massively suppresses demand, because households focus on paying down their mortgages rather than spending elsewhere.

這不僅大大增加了破產的風險，而且還極大地抑制了需求，因為家庭會集中精力償還抵押貸款，而不是在其他地方消費。

This is what many economists think happened to Japan after its property crash in the 90s, which forced Japanese households to focus on paying down their mortgages, which is one of the reasons that Japanese domestic demand is so weak, and Japan is constantly flirting with deflation. This is also likely to exacerbate China's trade frictions with the rest of the world.

許多經濟學家認為，這就是日本在上世紀 90 年代房地產崩盤後發生的情況，這迫使日本家庭集中精力償還抵押貸款，這也是日本內需疲軟、不斷徘徊在通貨緊縮邊緣的原因之一。這也可能加劇中國與世界其他國家的貿易摩擦。

As we've argued in previous videos, the root cause of China's trade frictions is not just that it produces and exports lots of stuff, that's what you'd expect from a large economy in a globalized market, but rather because it exports a lot more than it imports.

正如我們在之前的視頻中所論述的，中國貿易摩擦的根本原因並不僅僅在於它生產和出口了大量的產品，這也是全球化市場中一個大型經濟體的應有之義，而是因為它的出口量遠遠大於進口量。

China's ongoing housing woes are unlikely to have an impact on its industrial production, but they will undermine household confidence and therefore reduce domestic demand for Chinese goods, which will then have to be exported instead.

中國目前的住房困境不太可能對其工業生產產生影響，但會削弱家庭信心，從而減少國內對中國商品的需求，進而不得不出口。

This would mean an even larger trade surplus, exacerbating the escalating trade war and inviting more complaints about Chinese overcapacity from disgruntled politicians. Finally, this also presents the CCP with an uncomfortable dilemma.

這將意味著更大的貿易順差，加劇不斷升級的貿易戰，並招致心懷不滿的政客們對中國產能過剩的更多抱怨。最後，這也給中國共產黨帶來了一個令人不安的兩難境地。

While they've succeeded in deleveraging the property developers and partly deflating the property bubble, house prices are clearly falling faster than they wanted.

雖然他們成功地讓房地產開發商去槓桿化，並部分化解了房地產保麗龍，但房價下跌的速度顯然超出了他們的預期。

Broadly speaking, this leaves them with two options.

They can either provide more support, but risk introducing a moral hazard and ultimately reflating the bubble, or they can take a more laissez-faire approach, as they've done previously, and let prices continue to fall, but risk a Japan-style deflationary crisis. A week or so ago, we announced that we're working on a physical magazine which dives deep into the upcoming UK general election.

他們可以提供更多支持，但有可能引入道德風險，最終導致保麗龍再膨脹；他們也可以採取更自由放任的態度，就像之前所做的那樣，讓房價繼續下跌，但有可能引發日本式的通貨緊縮危機。一個多星期前，我們宣佈正在製作一本深入探討即將到來的英國大選的實體雜誌。

But it turns out that designing a magazine isn't all that easy.

但事實證明，設計一本雜誌並不那麼容易。

So I headed to Skillshare to take a look through some of their design courses, including the incredibly helpful course, "How to Design a Magazine and Learn InDesign," which helped me to, well, do both things.

是以，我前往 Skillshare 瀏覽了他們的一些設計課程，其中包括非常有用的課程 "如何設計雜誌和學習 InDesign"，它幫助我做了這兩件事。

This means that unlike when I tried to learn InDesign for another, never-released project a few years ago, I was guided through the process quickly and efficiently, and this time the project will actually see the light of day, thanks to Skillshare's incredibly easy-to-follow guides.

這意味著，與幾年前我嘗試為另一個從未發佈的項目學習 InDesign 不同，我在 Skillshare 的指導下快速高效地完成了整個過程，而這一次，多虧了 Skillshare 令人難以置信的簡單易學的指導，我的項目才能真正面世。

You likely already know that Skillshare is the largest online learning community for creatives, with thousands of classes led by industry experts across film, illustration, design, freelance, and more.

您可能已經知道，Skillshare 是最大的創意人士在線學習社區，由電影、插圖、設計、自由職業等行業專家主持的課程多達數千種。

But Skillshare can also help take your career or side hustle to the next level, with hundreds of career-focused classes too.

不過，Skillshare 也能幫助你的職業或副業更上一層樓，它還有數百種以職業為重點的課程。

That's courses on everything from how to start a business, to maximizing your workflow, or even how to grow in e-commerce, another course that I used when building the website that sells the magazine.

這些課程無所不包，從如何創業，到最大化工作流程，甚至是如何發展電子商務，這也是我在建立銷售雜誌的網站時使用的另一門課程。

And the best news is that the first 500 people to use the link in the description will receive a one-month free trial of Skillshare.

最好的消息是，前 500 名使用說明中鏈接的用戶將獲得 Skillshare 一個月的免費試用。