What are we hearing?

我們聽到了什麼？

Well what we do know is that the European Union basically is going ahead or will go ahead with about 48% tax on those Chinese EVs and there is said to be through state media as well as hints from the Chinese government that there's going to be retaliatory action, probably more targeted this time, much like what China deployed against Australia.

我們所知道的是，歐盟基本上正在或將要對中國電動汽車徵收 48% 的稅，據說中國政府通過國家媒體和暗示將採取報復行動，這次可能更有針對性，就像中國對澳洲採取的行動一樣。

And that is against alcohol items and foodstuffs, products that China can source elsewhere.

而這是針對酒類和食品，中國可以從其他地方採購這些產品。

So if they levy these tariffs on Europe, here are some of the areas that would hit Europe the hardest.

是以，如果他們對歐洲徵收這些關稅，以下是對歐洲打擊最大的一些領域。

I just mentioned about alcohol, well France is the biggest producer of brandy, wine could also be targeted in those Mediterranean nations, particularly France, Italy and Spain would be hit very hard.

我剛才提到了酒類，法國是白蘭地的最大生產國，葡萄酒也可能成為地中海國家的目標，尤其是法國、意大利和西班牙將受到嚴重打擊。

Brandy, Beijing already announced a probe back in January, an anti-dumping probe back in January, which could take a year or so to be fulfilled but that does not mean Beijing could not in the interim impose preliminary tariffs, much like what it did on the Australian wine sector when it launched a probe there.

白蘭地，中國政府早在一月份就宣佈了一項調查，即反傾銷調查，這項調查可能需要一年左右的時間才能完成，但這並不意味著中國政府不能在此期間徵收初步關稅，就像中國政府對澳洲葡萄酒行業發起調查時所做的那樣。

Then of course France is China's second largest brandy export market so it would hit France quite hard.

當然，法國是中國第二大白蘭地出口市場，是以這將對法國造成相當大的衝擊。

That would also play out as well for wine, I mentioned Australian wine but of course France, Italy and Spain, big producers and wine right now is at a historical global glut.

我提到了澳洲的葡萄酒，當然還有法國、意大利和西班牙等葡萄酒生產大國。

So again, other producers could fill the void there.

是以，其他製片人也可以填補這方面的空白。

Now pork, Spain is the number two market to, China is the number two market for Spain in pork, that could be targeted.

中國是西班牙豬肉的第二大市場，這也是我們的目標。

Also dairy, that would hit Denmark.

同樣是奶製品，丹麥也會受到衝擊。

And then cars, we're already hearing from state media saying that the Chinese car makers are pushing Beijing government to employ about a 25% tax on large engine European cars.

在汽車方面，我們已經聽到國家媒體說，中國的汽車製造商正在推動北京政府對歐洲的大型發動機汽車徵收 25% 的稅。

That's going to hit Germany pretty hard.

這將對德國造成沉重打擊。

There's a reason also that these measures are targeted, right?

這些措施有針對性也是有原因的，對嗎？

Are there any products that China might avoid retaliation because they actually need those items?

是否有一些產品，中國可能會避免報復，因為他們確實需要這些產品？

Sure, I'm sure there's going to be an exclusion list and in particular let's bring up airplanes.

當然，我相信會有一個排除名單，尤其是飛機。

Airbus is one of two main suppliers globally obviously and also look, the Chinese right now are said to be in negotiations for about 100 new wide body aircraft from Airbus.

空中客車公司顯然是全球兩大供應商之一，而且，據說中國目前正在與空中客車公司就大約 100 架新型寬體飛機進行談判。

Those are not the single aisle planes that they assemble in Tianjin.

這些飛機不是在天津組裝的單通道飛機。

They would have to buy them from Europe.

他們必須從歐洲購買。

They're not about to put a tax or tariff on items that they're about to buy and import into China.

他們不會對即將購買並進口到中國的商品徵稅或加徵關稅。

Also, any penalty against Airbus would be a benefit to Boeing.

此外，對空中客車公司的任何處罰都會給波音公司帶來好處。

We all know that Boeing and China right now have their difficulties and the US and China are in that trade spat as well.

我們都知道，波音公司和中國現在都有自己的困難，美國和中國也陷入了貿易爭端。

So this is an area that would probably not see tariffs at this time.

是以，目前可能不會對這一領域徵收關稅。