Name: 沃倫-巴菲特談特斯拉自動駕駛技術給伯克希爾保險業務帶來的風險 (Warren Buffett on the risk from Tesla's self-driving tech to Berkshire's insurance businesses)
Uploaded: 2024-06-19T09:38:48.000Z
Duration: 4 min 23 s

分詞構句

As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects to GEICO, assuming Elon Musk delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal.

作為伯克希爾公司和特斯拉公司的股東，我想聽聽您的看法，如果埃隆-馬斯克實現了他的完全自動駕駛目標，GEICO 可能會受到哪些財務影響。

On Tesla's most recent earnings call, Elon said, if you've got at scale a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let's say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think that's difficult to ignore.

在特斯拉最近的財報電話會議上，埃隆說："如果你掌握了大量具有統計學意義的數據，確鑿地表明自動駕駛汽車的事故率是人類駕駛汽車的一半，我認為這很難被忽視。

Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% versus human drivers, wouldn't auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risk, thereby adversely impacting GEICO's revenues and float, and perhaps margins, too?

假設埃隆成功地將交通事故減少了 50%，那麼汽車保險費率不就會下降，以反映承保風險的降低，從而對 GEICO 的收入和浮動，甚至利潤率產生不利影響嗎？

Well, yeah, if, well, let's just take the extreme example.

是的，如果我們舉個極端的例子。

Let's say there are only gonna be three accidents, and the United States next year, for some crazy reason that anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs, but that's been harder to do than people have done before, but obviously, if it really happens, the figures will show it, and our data will show it, and prices will come down.

假設明年只發生三起事故，而美國出於某種瘋狂的原因，認為只要能減少事故，就能降低成本，但這比人們以前所做的要難，但很明顯，如果真的發生了，數字會顯示出來，我們的數據也會顯示出來，價格就會下降。

I wouldn't, there've been a lot of people talk about doing that in the past.

我不會的，過去有很多人都說要這麼做。

I mean, General Motors used to be very big in the insurance business, and when Uber first started, they used some firm, which now is, I think Agito confirmed, they're close to bankruptcy now, aren't they, because of taking things out at the wrong prices?

我的意思是，通用汽車公司過去在保險業務方面非常大，當 Uber 剛起步時，他們使用了一些公司，現在，我想 Agito 證實，他們現在接近破產，不是嗎？

Insurance always looks easier than it is, and it's so much fun, because you get the money at the start.

保險看起來總是比實際容易，而且非常有趣，因為你一開始就能拿到錢。

And then you find out whether you've done something stupid later on, but it's a very tempting business when somebody hands you money, and you hand them a little piece of paper, but really knowing whether you're, I mean, if accidents get reduced 50%, it's gonna be good for society, and it's gonna be bad for insurance companies' volume, but good for society is what we're looking for so far.

我的意思是，如果事故減少 50%，對社會是好事，對保險公司的業務量也是壞事，但對社會是好事，這才是我們目前所追求的。

You might find kind of interesting, I mean, the number of people killed per 100 million passenger miles driven, I think it actually, when I was young, it was like 15, but even post-World War II, it only fell to like seven or thereabouts, and Ralph Nader probably has done more for the American consumer than just about anybody in history, because that seven or six has now come down to under two, and I don't think it would have come down that way without him.

拉爾夫-納德為美國消費者所做的貢獻可能比歷史上任何人都要多，因為這7、6人的死亡人數現在已經降到了2人以下，我認為如果沒有他，這個數字不會降到這麼低。

There have been some kind of fluke figures of what people did during the pandemic, which are quite interesting, because they didn't drive, immediately they didn't drive as many miles, but they drove more dangerously, didn't they?

有一些關於大流行病期間人們所作所為的僥倖數字相當有趣，因為他們沒有開車，立即他們沒有開那麼多里程，但他們開車更危險，不是嗎？

Yeah, yeah, so the point I wanna make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology, the number of accidents do come down, and that is certainly provable, but I think what needs to be factored in as well is the repair cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed, so if you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I'm not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe.

是的，是的，就特斯拉而言，我想說的是，他們認為由於採用了他們的技術，事故數量確實減少了，這當然是可以證明的，但我認為還需要考慮的是，每起事故的維修成本都在飆升，所以如果你把事故數量乘以每起事故的成本，我不確定總數是否如特斯拉希望我們相信的那樣減少了。

Tesla has been toying with the idea of writing insurance directly or indirectly, and so far, it hasn't really sort of been much of a success.

特斯拉一直在試探直接或間接承保保險的想法，但到目前為止，還沒有取得什麼成功。

 Time will tell, but I think automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider.

時間會證明一切，但我認為自動化只是將大量費用從操作員轉移到了設備供應商身上。

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沃倫-巴菲特談特斯拉自動駕駛技術給伯克希爾保險業務帶來的風險 (Warren Buffett on the risk from Tesla's self-driving tech to Berkshire's insurance businesses)

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