Economists sometimes say there are four types of economies in the world.

經濟學家有時會說，世界上有四種類型的經濟體。

Developed, undeveloped, Argentina and Japan.

發達國家、不發達國家、阿根廷和日本。

Argentina's chaotic economy has obviously been in the headlines a fair bit recently, but Japan's economy has been stuck in neutral for basically the past 30 years, with growth, inflation and interest rates all stagnant but stable, thanks in part to some very unusual monetary policy from Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan.

阿根廷混亂的經濟顯然是最近的頭條新聞，但日本的經濟在過去 30 年裡基本上一直處於中性狀態，增長、通脹和利率都停滯不前，但很穩定，這在一定程度上要歸功於日本央行--日本銀行--採取的一些非常不尋常的貨幣政策。

However, after steadily declining for a couple of years, on Monday Japan's currency, the yen, slid to a 34-year low of 160 to the dollar, a level not seen since the 1990 financial crisis.

然而，在持續下跌了幾年之後，本週一，日本貨幣日元跌至 34 年來的最低點，1 美元兌 160 日元，這是自 1990 年金融危機以來從未有過的水準。

Because Japan is one of the most import-dependent countries in the world, importing over 90% of its energy and over 60% of its food, a weak yen means inflation has returned to Japan for the first time in decades.

由於日本是世界上最依賴進口的國家之一，90% 以上的能源和 60% 以上的食品需要進口，日元疲軟意味著日本幾十年來首次出現通貨膨脹。

But, thanks to years of unorthodox monetary policy, the usual remedy, i.e. raising interest rates, isn't so easy in Japan.

但是，由於多年來非正統的貨幣政策，通常的補救措施，即提高利率，在日本並不那麼容易。

So in this video, we're going to take a look at Japan's funky economy, why the yen is declining and what might happen next.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們將看看日本的有趣經濟、日元為何貶值以及接下來可能會發生什麼。

Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos.

在我們開始之前，如果您還沒有訂閱，請考慮訂閱並按鈴，以便在我們發佈新視頻時及時收到通知。

So, to understand Japan's current economic predicament, you sort of have to go back to the early 90s, when, after decades of rapid economic growth, Japan experienced a massive financial crisis that the Japanese economy has still never quite recovered from.

是以，要理解日本當前的經濟困境，就必須追溯到上世紀 90 年代初。當時，在經歷了數十年的快速經濟增長之後，日本經歷了一場巨大的金融危機，至今日本經濟仍未完全走出危機。

For context, in the post-war years, Japan experienced many decades of rapid economic growth, in a period dubbed the Japanese Miracle.

日本在戰後經歷了數十年的快速經濟增長，被稱為 "日本奇蹟"。

From 1955 to 1990, Japanese growth averaged 6.8% per year and GDP multiplied 8 times, with growth falling below 3% only once, during the 1974 oil shock.

從 1955 年到 1990 年，日本的年均增長率為 6.8%，國內生產總值翻了 8 倍，只有一次增長率低於 3%，即在 1974 年石油衝擊期間。

Interestingly, Japan's economic success created some tensions with America, in much the same way that China's has.

有趣的是，日本的經濟成就造成了與美國的一些緊張關係，這與中國的情況大致相同。

American businessmen, including Donald Trump, blamed Japan for stealing American manufacturing jobs.

包括唐納德-特朗普在內的美國商人指責日本搶走了美國製造業的就業機會。

And American economists started anxiously predicting that Japan's economy would overtake America's sometime in the early 2000s.

美國經濟學家開始焦慮地預測，日本經濟將在本世紀初的某個時候超過美國。

And American foreign policy hawks started calling on Congress to quote, contain Japan and preserve America's technological supremacy.

美國外交政策的鷹派人物開始呼籲國會引用 "遏制日本，維護美國的技術優勢 "這句話。

Anyway, this anxiety subsided in the 90s, when Japan experienced an enormous financial crisis.

總之，這種焦慮在上世紀 90 年代日本經歷了一場巨大的金融危機後有所緩解。

After a rapid appreciation in Japanese stock and real estate prices during the 80s, in 1990 the bubble burst, and continued to burst for a while.

上世紀 80 年代，日本股票和房地產價格迅速上漲，1990 年保麗龍破裂，並持續了一段時間。

In the decade after 1990, residential house prices fell by more than 50%, commercial property prices fell by something like 85%, and Japan's main stock index, the Nikkei 225, fell by about 75%.

1990 年後的十年間，住宅價格下降了 50%以上，商業地產價格下降了約 85%，日本的主要股票指數日經 225 指數下降了約 75%。

Japan's economy never really recovered, and growth and inflation both remained close to zero until very recently.

日本經濟從未真正復甦，直到最近，經濟增長和通脹率都接近零。

Now, no one knows for sure why Japan was unable to get out of its economic funk for so long, but a popular theory is that Japan experienced what's now known as a balance sheet recession.

現在，沒有人確切知道日本為何長期無法擺脫經濟困境，但一種流行的說法是，日本經歷了現在所謂的資產負債表衰退。

Essentially, Japanese households and companies had taken out too much debt when asset prices were rising.

從根本上說，日本家庭和公司在資產價格上漲時舉債過多。

So, when asset prices fell, Japanese individuals focused on paying down their debts, i.e. repairing their balance sheets.

是以，當資產價格下跌時，日本人集中精力償還債務，即修復資產負債表。

While this might make sense on an individual level, for example, if the price of your house goes down steeply, it makes sense to focus on paying off your mortgage to reduce your risk of bankruptcy.

就個人而言，這可能是有道理的，例如，如果你的房子價格急劇下降，那麼集中精力償還房貸以降低破產風險是有道理的。

If everyone in the economy starts doing this at the same time, then the economy stagnates.

如果經濟中的每個人都同時這樣做，那麼經濟就會停滯不前。

This also explains why the normal monetary remedies, like cutting interest rates, didn't work.

這也解釋了為什麼降息等正常的貨幣補救措施沒有奏效。

Because if Japanese households and companies focus on debt minimization instead of profit maximization, then cheaper borrowing rates won't really change anything, because they don't want to borrow more money anyway.

因為如果日本的家庭和公司把重點放在債務最小化而不是利潤最大化上，那麼降低借貸利率並不會真正改變什麼，因為他們反正也不想借更多的錢。

So, as the crisis continued, Japan flirted with deflation, which is generally pretty terrible news for an economy because it creates a downward spiral of self-fulfilling recessionary expectations by discouraging borrowing.

是以，隨著危機的持續，日本出現了通貨緊縮，而通貨緊縮對於一個經濟體來說通常是非常糟糕的消息，因為它會通過抑制借貸，造成自我實現衰退預期的螺旋式下降。

To prevent deflation, once interest rates had gone as low as they could go, literally below zero, the Bank of Japan had to find new ways of pumping more money into the economy and keeping prices up.

為了防止通貨緊縮，一旦利率降到最低水平，甚至低於零，日本央行就必須尋找新的方法，向經濟注入更多的資金，保持物價上漲。

This included buying up loads of corporate debt, and even more government debt, a practice today known as Quantitative Easing, or QE.

這包括購買大量公司債務，甚至更多的政府債務，這種做法如今被稱為量化寬鬆，或 QE。

Now, while QE has become increasingly common practice in the West since the 2008 financial crisis, no one's done quite as much of it as Japan, which is why Japan's government has quite literally the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, at about 260%.

自 2008 年金融危機以來，量化寬鬆政策在西方國家越來越普遍，但沒有一個國家像日本這樣大張旗鼓地實施量化寬鬆政策，這也是為什麼日本政府的債務與 GDP 比率高達 260% 左右，是世界上最高的。

From 2016 until late last the Bank of Japan even began what's called Yield Curve Control, which essentially involved buying up enough debt to guarantee that government borrowing costs wouldn't go above a certain level.

從 2016 年到去年年底，日本央行甚至開始了所謂的收益率曲線控制，主要是購買足夠多的債務，以保證政府借貸成本不會超過一定水準。

Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy came under pressure in 2022, when inflation started rising across the world.

2022 年，全球通脹開始上升，日本的超寬鬆貨幣政策面臨壓力。

Usually, central banks raise interest rates, but the Bank of Japan decided not to, both because inflation was relatively low in Japan, but also because, thanks to its enormous debt burden, even a slight raise in interest rates would translate to a massive increase in debt servicing costs, especially for the Japanese government.

通常情況下，中央銀行都會提高利率，但日本央行決定不提高利率，一方面是因為日本的通脹率相對較低，另一方面也是由於日本債務負擔沉重，即使稍微提高利率也會導致償債成本大幅增加，尤其是對日本政府而言。

Unfortunately, things have become more difficult as other central banks have raised rates, making their currencies relatively more attractive and sparking a decline in the yen.

不幸的是，隨著其他中央銀行提高利率，使其貨幣相對更具吸引力，並引發日元下跌，情況變得更加困難。

In the last year, the yen has fallen from about 130 to the dollar to a 34-year low of 160 to the dollar on Monday.

在過去的一年裡，日元兌美元匯率從約 130 美元跌至本週一的 34 年低點 160 美元。

Now, the speed and severity of this decline presents a difficult dilemma for the Bank of Japan, because, thanks to Japan's reliance on imports, it sparked significant inflation in essential items like food and energy.

現在，這一下降的速度和嚴重程度讓日本央行進退兩難，因為由於日本依賴進口，這引發了食品和能源等必需品的大幅通脹。

But they still don't want to raise rates for the reasons we've just mentioned earlier.

但由於我們剛才提到的原因，他們仍然不想提高利率。

This is why, on Monday evening, instead of raising rates, the Bank of Japan used billions of dollars worth of Japan's foreign exchange reserves to buy up the yen on the international market, artificially inflating its value.

這就是為什麼週一晚間，日本央行沒有提高利率，而是動用了價值數十億美元的日本外匯存底在國際市場上買入日元，人為地抬高了日元的價值。

While this seems to have worked in the short term, as of Tuesday morning, the yen is now trading at nearer 155 to the dollar.

雖然這在短期內似乎起了作用，但截至週二上午，日元對美元的匯率已接近 155。

It's both expensive and fundamentally unsustainable, even if the Bank of Japan has some of the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world.

儘管日本央行擁有世界上最大的外匯存底，但這既昂貴又從根本上不可持續。

All in all, assuming the Bank of Japan won't engage in significant rate hikes, this means that the yen is very much dependent on what goes on in the rest of the world.

總而言之，假設日本央行不會大幅加息，這意味著日元在很大程度上取決於世界其他地區的走勢。

If inflation comes down and other central banks start cutting rates, then this will reduce some of the pressure on the yen.

如果通脹率下降，其他央行開始降息，那麼這將減輕日元的部分壓力。

But if inflation turns out to be stickier than we'd like, which seems to be the case, then the divergence between the Bank of Japan and other central banks will persist, which means more downwards pressure on the yen.

但是，如果通脹比我們所希望的要嚴重，那麼日本央行和其他央行之間的分歧將會持續，這意味著日元將面臨更大的下行壓力。

If this happens, then the Bank of Japan won't be able to stave off the yen's decline with exchange reserves forever, and eventually they'll have to choose a horn of their uncomfortable dilemma.

如果出現這種情況，那麼日本央行將無法永遠通過外匯存底來阻止日元的下跌，最終他們將不得不在令人不安的兩難境地中選擇一個方向。

Either to just accept the yen's decline and all the inflation-related political turmoil that comes with it, or raise rates and just hope that the most debt-burdened economy can somehow deal with it.

要麼接受日元下跌以及隨之而來的所有與通脹相關的政治動盪，要麼提高利率，只希望債務負擔最重的經濟體能以某種方式應對。

Understanding these kinds of economic theories are difficult, and honestly, even politicians don't always seem to understand them.

理解這類經濟理論很困難，老實說，即使是政治家似乎也並不總能理解它們。

So maybe they could do with checking out the lesson How Governments Fight Inflation on Imprint.

是以，他們或許可以去看看 "版本說明 "上的 "政府如何對抗通貨膨脹 "一課。

Just like TLDR, Imprint is all about turning complex books and topics into something you can learn quickly, conveniently, and visually.

就像 TLDR 一樣，Imprint 致力於將複雜的書籍和主題轉化為你可以快速、方便、直觀地學習的內容。

It's super quick, with most lessons taking less than two minutes to complete, summarizing knowledge from all kinds of topics using Harvard professors and best-selling authors to teach you key concepts.

它超快，大多數課程不到兩分鐘就能完成，利用哈佛大學教授和暢銷書作家向你傳授關鍵概念，總結各種主題的知識。

It's convenient because it's all housed in their easy-to-use mobile app, letting you replace doom-scrolling while waiting for your train or coffee with actual learning.

之所以方便，是因為所有內容都包含在他們簡單易用的移動應用程序中，讓你在等火車或喝咖啡時用實際的學習取代漫無目的的閒逛。

And it's visual because, well, just look at their app.

而且它是可視化的，因為，看看他們的應用程序就知道了。

If you've not used it before, you've likely never seen anything quite like it.

如果你以前沒用過它，你可能從未見過這樣的東西。

Unlike traditional books, their animated explanations help you stay focused, understand concepts quickly, and actually retain what you learn.

與傳統書籍不同的是，它們的動畫講解可以幫助你集中注意力，快速理解概念，並真正保留所學知識。

So join the millions of users learning with Imprint, including me.

是以，請加入包括我在內的數百萬使用 Imprint 學習的用戶的行列。

I'm taking their course called Why We Sleep right now, and you can do that too using the link in the description.

我正在學習他們的課程《我們為什麼睡覺》，你也可以通過描述中的鏈接學習。

Plus, if you use that link, you'll get a free seven-day trial and 20% off an annual plan when you sign up, and they'll know that you came from us.

此外，如果您使用該鏈接，您將獲得七天免費試用，註冊年度計劃時還可享受八折優惠，而且他們會知道您是從我們這裡來的。

So check it out, support the channel, and thanks for watching TLDR.

是以，請查看它，支持這個頻道，並感謝您收看《TLDR》。