Starting with something we know for sure to be true, so it must be greater than 1, must be less than 7 billion, and is less than the population of China.

從我們確定無疑的事實開始，所以它必須大於 1，必須小於 70 億，並且小於中國人口。

We then take these anchors and explore the unfamiliar territory.

然後，我們帶著這些錨，探索陌生的領域。

Unfortunately, we use anchors when we don't need to.

不幸的是，我們在不需要的時候使用了錨。

Take a moment to pause and look at these two questions.

靜下心來看看這兩個問題。

Is the height of the tallest redwood tree more or less than 1,200 feet?

最高的紅杉樹的高度是大於還是小於 1,200 英尺？

What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood?

您認為最高的紅杉樹有多高？

If we ask Group A these two questions and Group B these two questions, we would consistently get very different answers because of the anchoring effect.

如果我們向 A 組提出這兩個問題，向 B 組提出這兩個問題，由於錨定效應，我們會得到截然不同的答案。

The words and numbers we use anchors people's decisions.

我們使用的詞語和數字會影響人們的決定。

But the anchoring effect doesn't only apply to numbers that appear informative, such as in the tree example.

但是，錨定效應並不僅僅適用於信息量大的數字，例如樹形示例中的數字。

According to Kahneman, anchors that are obviously random can be just as effective as potentially informative anchors.

卡尼曼認為，明顯隨機的錨點與潛在資訊錨點一樣有效。

An experiment was conducted on German judges with an average of 15 years experience.

對平均有 15 年工作經驗的德國法官進行了一項實驗。

Each judge was read a description of a woman who had been shoplifting, then asked to roll a pair of dice, which were loaded to only add up to 3 or 9.

每個法官都被宣讀了一份關於一名在商店行竊的婦女的描述，然後被要求擲一對骰子，骰子上的數字加起來只能是 3 或 9。

As soon as the dice stopped, they were asked to answer how long they would sentence this woman.

骰子一停，他們就被要求回答要判這個女人多久。

The judges who rolled a 9 on average gave her an 8-month sentence.

擲骰子的法官平均擲出 9 分，判處她 8 個月的刑期。

The judges who rolled a 3 on average gave her a 5-month sentence.

平均得分 3 分的法官判處她 5 個月的刑期。

The researchers found that the anchoring effect was influencing their judgments.

研究人員發現，錨定效應影響了他們的判斷。

Numerous other studies using arbitrary numbers like the last digits of phone numbers or social security numbers also confirmed our anchoring bias.

其他許多使用任意數字（如電話號碼或社會保障號碼的最後幾位）的研究也證實了我們的錨定偏差。

In sales and negotiations, anchors are being used all the time.

在銷售和談判中，錨一直在被使用。

And there will be people who are willing and able to set up this mind trap and exploit the anchoring effect against you.

會有人願意並能夠設置這種心靈陷阱，利用錨定效應來對付你。

The car salesman setting a high price from the start so that the price that he actually wants to get from you seems like a good deal.

汽車銷售員從一開始就把價格定得很高，這樣他實際想從你那裡得到的價格看起來就很划算。

The $150 dress at the front of the store sets the anchor for the $50 dress at the back of the store.

店門口 150 美元的裙子為店後 50 美元的裙子打下了基礎。

Be sure to check out the full-length series where we go through 21 of the most common mind traps, thinking errors, biases, effects, and other phenomenon that have the biggest impact on your thinking and decision making.

請務必查看完整系列，我們將在其中介紹 21 種最常見的思維陷阱、思維錯誤、偏見、影響以及其他對你的思維和決策影響最大的現象。