The Fed will act during presidential election seasons.

美聯儲將在總統大選期間採取行動。

The question now is, will the Fed act if the case is marginal?

現在的問題是，如果案件處於邊緣地位，美聯儲是否會採取行動？

If you spoke to any Federal Reserve chair, they would tell you that they make their decisions based on what's right for the economy, not on the election cycle.

如果你與任何一位美聯儲主席交談，他們都會告訴你，他們的決策是基於對經濟有利的因素，而不是選舉週期。

Read all the transcripts and see if anybody mentions in any way the pending election.

閱讀所有錄音記錄，看看是否有人以任何方式提到了懸而未決的選舉。

It just isn't part of our thinking.

這只是我們思維的一部分。

It's not what we're hired to do.

這不是我們的工作。

Inflation is the chief concern of U.S. adults, according to a May 2024 survey.

2024 年 5 月的一項調查顯示，通貨膨脹是美國成年人最關心的問題。

But stabilizing prices is traditionally the Fed's job, not the president's.

但穩定物價歷來是美聯儲的工作，而不是總統的工作。

My plan is to address inflation, start a simple proposition, start with the Fed.

我的計劃是解決通貨膨脹問題，從一個簡單的命題開始，從美聯儲開始。

A long line of experts say that presidents should avoid meddling in the central bank's affairs.

許多專家都認為，總統應避免插手中央銀行的事務。

They are one of the most powerful institutions probably in the world.

它們可能是世界上最強大的機構之一。

An executive's ability to control the power of the purse could one day lead us down to a president who would be more like a king.

行政長官控制錢包權力的能力有朝一日可能會導致我們的總統更像國王。

Former President Donald Trump is reportedly considering how to exert more influence over the Fed.

據報道，美國前總統唐納德-特朗普正在考慮如何對美聯儲施加更大的影響。

Irrespective of Donald Trump's plans about what to do with the Fed, there is a concern that any future president might be tempted to influence the Fed because of the U.S.'s fiscal position.

無論唐納德-特朗普對如何處理美聯儲有何計劃，人們擔心的是，由於美國的財政狀況，任何未來的總統都可能試圖影響美聯儲。

So how does the Fed factor into the 2024 election?

那麼，美聯儲是如何影響 2024 年大選的？

A committee at the Federal Reserve makes decisions that can influence how voters feel about the economy.

美聯儲的一個委員會做出的決定會影響選民對經濟的看法。

For that reason, they're supposed to be independent and far away from politics.

是以，他們應該是獨立的，遠離政治。

Most studies show that more independence from the Federal Reserve leads to better monetary policy.

大多數研究表明，更加獨立於美聯儲會帶來更好的貨幣政策。

Central bankers at the Fed are not elected.

美聯儲的央行行長不是選舉產生的。

They can't be easily fired by the executive branch, and they can't be easily influenced by the president.

行政部門不能輕易解僱他們，總統也不能輕易影響他們。

Members of the Board of Governors have 14-year terms, and this is to protect independent judgment.

理事會成員的任期為 14 年，這是為了保護獨立判斷。

That said...

話雖如此

Appointments at the Fed are certainly getting very politicized in recent years.

近年來，美聯儲的任命無疑變得非常政治化。

Seven governors on the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Committee are nominated by the president and confirmed by Congress.

美聯儲利率委員會的七位理事由總統提名，國會確認。

And then five reserve bank presidents.

然後是五位儲備銀行行長。

Those reserve bank presidents, it's going to be the New York Fed president and four other reserve bank presidents who kind of rotate through.

這些儲備銀行行長將由紐約聯儲主席和其他四位儲備銀行行長輪流擔任。

In 2024, four of the sitting members were nominated by President Biden.

2024 年，拜登總統提名了四位現任成員。

Two were nominated by President Trump.

其中兩人是由特朗普總統提名的。

And the chair, Jerome Powell, was approved by leaders from both parties.

而主席傑羅姆-鮑威爾則得到了兩黨領導人的準許。

The Fed chair is not really a political appointee.

美聯儲主席並非真正的政治任命。

Pretty typical that even if you have presidents from different parties, they'll still reappoint the same person as the Fed chair.

非常典型的是，即使總統來自不同黨派，他們仍然會重新任命同一個人擔任美聯儲主席。

If this became a tool of politicians, then of course what they're going to do is they will want to lower interest rates now because low interest rates are like dessert before dinner.

如果這成為政客們的工具，那麼他們當然會現在就降低利率，因為低利率就像晚餐前的甜點。

It always tastes pretty good, but then you have to deal with actually getting some nutrition.

它的味道總是很不錯，但你不得不面對實際攝取營養的問題。

From 2022 to 2023, the Federal Reserve took its interest rate from near zero to above five percent.

從 2022 年到 2023 年，美聯儲將利率從接近零提高到 5%以上。

The committee believes this level is working to reduce inflation.

委員會認為，這一水準有助於降低通貨膨脹。

You see it in the labor market.

你可以在勞動力市場上看到這一點。

You see it in inflation-sensitive spending, where demand has clearly come down a lot over the past few years.

你可以從對通脹敏感的支出中看到這一點，在過去幾年中，這方面的需求明顯下降了很多。

Sometimes, like in the post-pandemic era, central bankers use higher interest rates to restrict economic growth and prevent prices from climbing so quickly.

有時，比如在後大流行病時代，央行行長會利用提高利率來限制經濟增長，防止物價快速攀升。

We've been going through a period of history where the Fed has been pretty rapidly rising rates, and we hadn't seen anything like that in a number of decades.

我們一直在經歷美聯儲快速提高利率的歷史時期，幾十年來我們從未見過這樣的情況。

These higher interest rates that we've been experiencing for the past two years or so make the cost of money and credit more expensive.

過去兩年多來的高利率使貨幣和信貸成本更加昂貴。

But sometimes, politicians may pressure the central bank to cut its interest rates.

但有時，政治家可能會向中央銀行施壓，要求其降低利率。

Politicians, they know this might have an inflationary impact, but if they are a few months away from the election, then they think, OK, let's stimulate activity.

政治家們知道這可能會對通脹產生影響，但如果距離選舉還有幾個月的時間，他們就會想，好吧，讓我們來刺激經濟活動吧。

Some past presidents have pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, even if that would be a dangerous decision.

過去的一些總統曾向美聯儲施壓，要求其降低利率，即使這是一個危險的決定。

The most notable example came under President Nixon.

最顯著的例子是尼克松總統時期。

We must stop the rise in the cost of living.

我們必須阻止生活費用的上漲。

So the relationship between President Richard Nixon and Fed Chair Arthur Burns is probably the best-known historical example of presidential pressure on a Fed chair.

是以，理查德-尼克松總統與美聯儲主席阿瑟-伯恩斯之間的關係，可能是總統對美聯儲主席施壓的最著名歷史案例。

Nixon appointed Burns in 1969 because he expected that Burns was going to be a Republican Party loyalist.

尼克松之所以在 1969 年任命伯恩斯，是因為他認為伯恩斯將是共和黨的忠實擁護者。

Take, for example, this conversation from December 1971, 11 months before the next election.

以 1971 年 12 月的這段對話為例，當時距離下一次選舉還有 11 個月。

Chair Burns says to Nixon,

伯恩斯主席對尼克松說

Look, I wanted you to know we reduced the discount rate today.

聽著，我想告訴你，我們今天降低了折扣率。

To which President Nixon replies,

尼克松總統回答說

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, good.

哦，是的，是的，是的，很好。

You can lead them, you know.

你可以上司他們

You know, you always have now, so just kick them in the rump a little.

你知道，你現在一直都有，所以就踢他們屁股一下吧。

Nixon also put artificial controls on wages and prices to guide the consumer economy.

尼克松還人為控制工資和物價，引導消費經濟。

He went on to win 1972's election, commanding 60.7% of the popular vote.

在 1972 年的大選中，他贏得了 60.7% 的民眾選票。

Of course, after the price controls were lifted, all of that monetary easing led to this big burst of inflation.

當然，在取消價格管制後，所有的貨幣寬鬆政策都導致了通貨膨脹的大爆發。

It's sort of gone down in history as a nightmare for central bank independents.

對於獨立央行來說，這簡直就是一場噩夢。

Nixon famously resigned from the presidency amid the escalating Watergate crisis in 1974.

1974 年，尼克松在不斷升級的水門危機中辭去了總統職務，從而一舉成名。

At the same time, inflation was running rampant, rising 10% from the year before.

與此同時，通貨膨脹也在肆虐，比前一年上升了 10%。

Governments beyond Nixon may have pressured the Fed for political gain.

尼克松之後的各國政府可能為了政治利益向美聯儲施壓。

The variation in these meetings is enormous.

這些會議的差異是巨大的。

For example, former President Clinton met only six times with people from the Federal

例如，前總統克林頓僅與聯邦調查局的人員會面六次。

Reserve.

儲備金。

For Nixon, that count was 160.

對於尼克松來說，這個數字是 160。

The consequences were almost always negative.

後果幾乎總是負面的。

I find little evidence that the pressure affects real activity.

我發現幾乎沒有證據表明壓力會影響實際活動。

So while it increases prices, it actually does not stimulate the economy.

是以，雖然它提高了價格，但實際上並沒有刺激經濟。

But frequently, conditions within the economy may call for Fed action, even in an election year.

但是，即使是在大選年，經濟狀況也會經常要求美聯儲採取行動。

So we looked at 34 years of data going back to 1989.

是以，我們研究了追溯到 1989 年的 34 年數據。

The Fed will react to shocks that hit the system in both the great financial crisis and the pandemic.

美聯儲將對大金融危機和大流行病對系統造成的衝擊做出反應。

Both had a banking and financial element to them.

兩者都有銀行和金融方面的因素。

The case for cutting was very obvious and not very controversial.

削減的理由非常明顯，爭議也不大。

As recently as March, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would cut interest rates three times in 2024.

就在今年 3 月，美聯儲還表示將在 2024 年降息三次。

But as the summer approached, the central bank hedged on its forecast of lower interest rates because annual inflation hadn't yet slowed to their target rate of about 2%.

但隨著夏季的臨近，央行對降低利率的預測進行了對沖，因為年通脹率尚未放緩至 2% 左右的目標水準。

I think keeping the policy rate where it is, it's restrictive, that'll continue to sort of slowly grind down the economy, but not throw it off a cliff.

我認為，保持目前的政策利率是有限制性的，這將繼續緩慢地拖累經濟，但不會將其推下懸崖。

The current state of the economy could play a big role in the election.

當前的經濟狀況可能會在選舉中發揮重要作用。

Wages keep going up.

工資不斷上漲。

Inflation keeps coming down.

通貨膨脹持續下降。

Inflation has dropped from 9% to 3%, the lowest in the world, and tending lower.

通貨膨脹率已從 9% 降至 3%，為世界最低，並有下降趨勢。

Inflation has been falling.

通貨膨脹率一直在下降。

It's just always really hard to tell because interest rates kind of work with a lag.

因為利率是滯後的，所以很難說。

We don't know exactly how long it takes for their effects to spread.

我們還不清楚它們的影響擴散需要多長時間。

Biden's economic administration, led by former Fed officials, has been criticized for heavy domestic spending, which may be inflationary.

拜登的經濟政府由前美聯儲官員上司，因國內支出巨大而飽受責備，這可能會引發通貨膨脹。

Bidenomics, if I was a professor, I'd give them an F. The Fed needs to stop helping them out because it's causing inflation.

拜登經濟學，如果我是教授，我會給他們一個 F。美聯儲必須停止幫助他們，因為這會導致通貨膨脹。

The inflation was primarily caused by the pandemic and the policy response.

通貨膨脹主要是由大流行病和應對政策造成的。

But the policy response under both parties, most of the fiscal stimulus occurred when

但從兩黨的政策反應來看，大部分財政刺激措施都發生在

President Trump was president.

特朗普總統是總統。

And yes, President Biden continued that.

是的，拜登總統繼續這樣說。

Inflation works with a lag.

通貨膨脹的作用是滯後的。

And so this was something, this was built up all the way through the pandemic.

是以，這是在大流行病期間一直在積累的東西。

Reality is that short-term interest rates are abnormally high right now to try to combat inflation.

現實情況是，目前短期利率異常高企，以試圖對抗通脹。

Inflation's been coming down.

通貨膨脹一直在下降。

It'll come down some more.

還會再降的。

So it makes sense to normalize.

是以，正常化是有意義的。

President Biden has promised to avoid interfering in the tasks of civil servants, which include the staff at the Fed's Board of Governors.

拜登總統承諾避免干涉公務員的工作，其中包括美聯儲理事會的工作人員。

His opponent, former President Donald Trump, reportedly has plans to make interest rate decisions himself.

據報道，他的對手、前總統唐納德-特朗普計劃親自做出利率決定。

The Wall Street Journal now reporting that Donald Trump's allies are quietly drafting proposals that would attempt to erode the Federal Reserve's independence.

華爾街日報》現在報道說，唐納德-特朗普的盟友們正在悄悄起草提案，試圖削弱美聯儲的獨立性。

You would have an arrangement with the Fed that is not the norm that we've had in the last 40 years.

你將與美聯儲達成一種安排，而這種安排並不是我們在過去 40 年中的常規安排。

Former President Trump, when he was in office, openly criticized the Fed for keeping policy too tight.

前總統特朗普在任時曾公開批評美聯儲將政策收得太緊。

That according to one study, did have an effect both on markets' perceptions of what the Fed would do and actually on the Fed.

根據一項研究，這確實對市場對美聯儲的看法和美聯儲的實際行動產生了影響。

So the study suggests that the Fed actually lowered rates lower than they otherwise would have been because of the pressure from the president.

是以，研究表明，美聯儲實際上是迫於總統的壓力，才將利率降得比原來更低。

It was something the Federal Reserve buckled at.

這是美聯儲所不願意看到的。

They were they were concerned about that.

他們對此表示擔憂。

The campaigns for both President Biden and former President Donald Trump did not respond to CNBC's request for a comment.

拜登總統和前總統唐納德-特朗普的競選團隊都沒有迴應 CNBC 的置評請求。

But in May 2024, the White House did put out a statement on the importance of central bank independence.

但在 2024 年 5 月，白宮確實就中央銀行獨立性的重要性發表了聲明。

The use of low interest rates, along with strong spending, has devastated other societies throughout history.

歷史上，使用低利率和強勁的支出曾給其他社會帶來毀滅性的打擊。

The framers and ratifiers were very intentional to set up a system in which Congress would be the only one, not the president, to exercise the power of the purse because, of course, they had this long and familiar history of European monarchs abusing the public fisc.

制憲者和準許者非常有意地建立了一個制度，在這個制度中，只有國會而不是總統才能行使財政權，因為他們當然知道歐洲君主濫用公共財政權的悠久歷史。

In the best case scenario, in the best state of the world, the Fed doesn't do anything differently just because it's an election year, especially in regard to its monetary policy function.

在最好的情況下，在世界最好的狀態下，美聯儲不會因為今年是選舉年而採取任何不同的行動，尤其是在貨幣政策職能方面。