India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. We see India growing from about $3.5 trillion in 2023 to about $7 trillion by the end of the decade.

印度是世界上增長最快的主要經濟體。我們認為印度將從 2023 年的約 3.5 萬億美元增長到本十年末的約 7 萬億美元。

Although the U.S. and China still dwarf the nation in terms of total gross domestic product, powered by a population of 1.4 billion, India could become the leader in global economic growth.

儘管美國和中國在國內生產總值總量上仍使印度相形見絀，但憑藉 14 億人口的優勢，印度有可能成為全球經濟增長的領頭羊。

Many of the world's investment banks have keyed in on India as a real prime investment destination right now.

世界上許多投資銀行都把印度作為當前真正的投資首選地。

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays.

摩根士丹利、高盛、巴克萊。

With so much investment coming in, companies around the world may soon need to have an India strategy.

隨著越來越多的投資湧入，世界各地的公司可能很快就需要制定印度戰略。

But what will it take for the country to get ahead?

但是，國家要如何才能取得進步呢？

For now, China still holds the crown as the main driver for global economic growth.

目前，中國仍是全球經濟增長的主要驅動力。

Its economic opening in the late 70s only accelerated after 2001, when it joined the World Trade Organization.

70 年代末期的經濟開放只是在 2001 年加入世界貿易組織後才加速。

It was the country that attracted foreign investment. It was the driver of financial markets and global capital markets.

它是吸引外國投資的國家。它是金融市場和全球資本市場的驅動力。

Every company around the world needed a strategy to deal with China.

全球每家公司都需要制定應對中國的戰略。

India didn't start to liberalize its economy till the 90s, and it's been a slow climb since.

印度直到上世紀 90 年代才開始實行經濟自由化，此後一直在緩慢攀升。

But with current levels at about 7 percent, growing just a bit faster is all it needs to surpass China.

但目前的增長水準約為 7%，只要再快一點，就能超過中國。

India's per capita income has grown sevenfold from the early 90s to now.

從上世紀 90 年代初到現在，印度的個人所得增長了七倍。

There has been significant progress also in the financial markets.

金融市場也取得了重大進展。

These boxes represent economic growth in 2023.

這些方框代表 2023 年的經濟增長。

China, on the left, contributed close to a third, while India took second place.

左側的中國貢獻了近三分之一，印度位居第二。

But look at how this changes if India grew about one percent faster a year.

但是，如果印度的增長速度每年提高一個百分點，情況又會發生怎樣的變化呢？

By 2028, the new picture is this.

到 2028 年，新的情況將是這樣的。

Geopolitics and China's own internal struggles are tipping this trend in India's favor.

地緣政治和中國自身的內部鬥爭正在使這一趨勢朝著有利於印度的方向發展。

What you're seeing recently is investors around the world, as they sort of shift out of China, are actually putting a lot of new funds into India.

你最近看到的情況是，世界各地的投資者在撤出中國市場的同時，將大量新資金投入印度。

Nowhere is this more evident than at the Samsung Noida factory on the outskirts of New Delhi.

這一點在新德里郊區的三星諾伊達工廠體現得最為明顯。

This area was farmland a decade ago.

十年前，這裡還是一片農田。

Now it's the world's largest mobile phone factory, producing 120 million handsets a year.

現在，它是世界上最大的手機工廠，每年生產 1.2 億部手機。

Samsung opened the plant in 2018, when business in China was becoming increasingly difficult.

三星於 2018 年開設了這家工廠，當時在中國的業務正變得越來越困難。

It isn't alone.

它並不孤單。

As the Chinese economy stumbles, businesses from Apple to Boeing are looking elsewhere, and at India in particular.

隨著中國經濟步履蹣跚，從蘋果公司到波音公司等企業都將目光投向了別處，尤其是印度。

India was growing fast enough to take the lead as recently as 2021, and the government says it can do it again.

印度的發展速度之快足以在 2021 年取得領先地位，印度政府表示，印度可以再次取得領先地位。

But first, it must overcome some major hurdles in these key areas, manufacturing, urbanization, workforce and infrastructure.

但首先，它必須克服製造業、城市化、勞動力和基礎設施這些關鍵領域的一些重大障礙。

Let's start with manufacturing.

讓我們從製造業開始。

For decades, China has been the world's dominant force in manufacturing.

幾十年來，中國一直是世界製造業的主導力量。

China is the assembly line to the world.

中國是世界的裝配線。

Manufacturing makes up 26 percent of China's economy, while in India it's only 16 percent.

製造業佔中國經濟的 26%，而印度僅為 16%。

The government aims that the share of manufacturing should grow up to 25 percent by 2025.

政府的目標是，到 2025 年，製造業的比重應增長到 25%。

To boost manufacturing, some 150 million Indians still working as farmers would need to move and take jobs at factories.

為促進製造業發展，約 1.5 億仍在務農的印度人需要搬遷到工廠工作。

This change would drive urbanization.

這一變化將推動城市化進程。

Decades ago, both China and India had huge rural economies and were largely dependent on farming.

幾十年前，中國和印度都擁有龐大的農村經濟，主要依賴農業。

In the 1990s, China very rapidly urbanized its economy, moving away from a traditional rural agricultural economy and to a much more modern urban industrial economy.

20 世紀 90 年代，中國經濟迅速城市化，從傳統的農村農業經濟轉向更加現代化的城市工業經濟。

64 percent of China's population lives in urban areas.

中國 64% 的人口居住在城市地區。

In India, it's 36 percent.

在印度，這一比例為 36%。

India needs a lot more cities.

印度需要更多的城市。

There is a lot of progress already happening in terms of interconnectivity for the cities.

在城市互聯互通方面已經取得了很多進展。

More railway network, better infrastructure for airports and so forth.

更多的鐵路網、更好的機場基礎設施等等。

But there are crucial problems like water, like traffic, like urban housing that needs to be solved.

但還有水、交通、城市住房等關鍵問題需要解決。

An urban population supports a robust workforce.

城市人口支撐著強大的勞動力隊伍。

And in 2023, India overtook China as the world's most populous nation.

2023 年，印度將超過中國，成為世界上人口最多的國家。

And while China's population is aging, more than half of Indians are under 30, prime working age.

在中國人口老齡化的同時，一半以上的印度人還不到 30 歲，處於黃金工作年齡。

It is going to be harboring the youngest workforce in the world.

它將擁有世界上最年輕的勞動力。

Now, this is very important because history has shown that whenever demographic dividend is on the side of a country, that country grows really rapidly.

現在，這一點非常重要，因為歷史表明，只要人口紅利站在一個國家一邊，這個國家的發展就會非常迅速。

There's no point to having a large, young, growing population if you don't have enough jobs for them all.

如果沒有足夠的工作崗位，那麼擁有大量年輕且不斷增長的人口就毫無意義。

Unemployment in the country remains stubbornly high at around 7 percent.

該國的失業率仍然頑固地保持在 7% 左右。

And in part because of poor quality of education, about half of all college graduates remain unemployable.

部分原因是教育品質低下，大約一半的大學畢業生仍然無法就業。

On top of this, not enough women in India work.

除此之外，印度沒有足夠的婦女參加工作。

China has a female workforce of about 45 percent.

中國的女性勞動力比例約為 45%。

In India, it's 29 percent.

在印度，這一比例為 29%。

Closing the gender work gap could expand India's GDP by nearly a third by 2050.

縮小男女工作差距可使印度的國內生產總值到 2050 年增長近三分之一。

A lot of economists believe that if India can find enough jobs for all of these people, then really the sky's the limit in terms of what growth can be.

很多經濟學家認為，如果印度能為這些人找到足夠的工作，那麼經濟增長的空間將是無限的。

An increase in manufacturing will in turn create demand for more service jobs and incentivize people to join an urban workforce.

製造業的增長反過來又會創造對更多服務崗位的需求，並激勵人們加入城市勞動力大軍。

But to achieve this transformation, India needs infrastructure and lots of it.

但要實現這一轉變，印度需要基礎設施，而且需要大量的基礎設施。

For a long time, India has been plagued by inadequate roads, insufficient or poorly maintained railroads, not enough airports, not enough seaports.

長期以來，印度一直飽受道路不足、鐵路不足或維護不善、機場不足、海港不足的困擾。

So infrastructure is really one way in which China overtook India early.

是以，基礎設施確實是中國早早超越印度的一個途徑。

In the 90s, India's railway network was 15 percent bigger than China's.

上世紀 90 年代，印度的鐵路網比中國大 15%。

But as China's economy started growing, it quickly took the lead.

但隨著中國經濟開始增長，它很快就佔據了領先地位。

And its rail network is now 60 percent bigger.

其鐵路網絡現在擴大了 60%。

India is making progress.

印度正在取得進步。

The country's national highway network has expanded more than 50 percent since 2014.

自 2014 年以來，該國的國家高速公路網已擴大了 50%以上。

If India can address these challenges, then foreign direct investment will likely increase.

如果印度能夠應對這些挑戰，那麼外國直接投資就有可能增加。

That inflow of money is an essential driver of growth.

資金流入是經濟增長的基本動力。

But accomplishing all of this is no easy feat.

但要做到這一切並非易事。

India also needs to increase its ease of doing business.

印度還需要進一步簡化經商手續。

The bureaucracy is such that it is not very easy to start a business in India and operate.

官僚作風嚴重，在印度創業和經營並非易事。

Even though the Modi government is behind on some of its goals, many in India remain optimistic that it can overtake China as the world's biggest driver of growth.

儘管莫迪政府的某些目標已經落後，但許多印度人仍然樂觀地認為，印度可以超越中國，成為世界上最大的經濟增長動力。

So one thing really working in India's favor more and more recently is simply that it's not China.

是以，最近對印度越來越有利的一點是，它不是中國。

The administration of Narendra Modi recognizes that the U.S. and other countries in the West are looking for a partner in the region that's not China to sort of partner at a time when China is growing more assertive in the region and more closed off to foreign companies and foreign investors.

納倫德拉-莫迪（Narendra Modi）政府認識到，美國和其他西方國家正在該地區尋找一個不是中國的合作伙伴，以在中國在該地區日益強硬、對外國公司和外國投資者日益封閉的時候建立合作伙伴關係。

Who is Narendra Modi?

誰是納倫德拉-莫迪？

Well, it depends on who you ask.

這要看你問誰了。

India's prime minister makes the impossible possible.

印度總理將不可能變為可能。

He is very conscious of his image in history.

他非常注重自己在歷史上的形象。

He has completely seduced the Hindi-Hindu belt.

他徹底征服了印地語-印度語地帶。

Some view him as the most effective prime minister in the history of India.

有人認為他是印度歷史上最有作為的總理。

He is passionately worshipped by millions and hailed as one of the world's most popular leaders with approval ratings surpassing 70 percent.

他受到數百萬人的熱情崇拜，被譽為世界上最受歡迎的領導人之一，支持率超過 70%。

Democracy delivers and democracy empowers.

民主交付，民主賦權。

On the other hand, critics see him as an autocratic Hindu nationalist who marginalizes minorities and undermines democratic norms.

另一方面，批評者認為他是一個專制的印度教民族主義者，排擠少數民族，破壞民主準則。

The idea that India is a democracy, this is a lie.

印度是一個民主國家，這是一個謊言。

He is a champion to the poor and friend of billionaires.

他是窮人的擁護者，億萬富翁的朋友。

He has lifted millions out of extreme poverty even as the country's inequality continues to widen.

他使數百萬人擺脫了極端貧困，儘管該國的不平等現象仍在繼續擴大。

So who is Narendra Modi?

那麼，誰是納倫德拉-莫迪？

Former colleagues, bureaucrats and historians give us an inside view of the man who runs one of the world's most dynamic economies to understand how exactly he got here and why he is so polarized.

前同事、官僚和歷史學家為我們講述了這位世界上最具活力的經濟體之一的管理者的內幕，讓我們瞭解他究竟是如何走到這一步的，以及他為何如此兩極分化。

Narendra Damodar Das Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

納倫德拉-達莫達爾-達斯-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

Narendra Modi used to sell tea. I used to sell tea with Narendra Modi.

納倫德拉-莫迪曾經賣過茶。我曾經和納倫德拉-莫迪一起賣茶。

Friends, when I was a child, I used to sell tea in the train ticket box.

朋友們，我小時候曾在火車售票處賣過茶葉。

And today, I am standing in front of you.

今天，我就站在你們面前。

Narendra Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

納倫德拉-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

An astrologer came here. I used to study in school.

一位占星家來過這裡。我以前在學校讀書。

So I gave one rupee to the astrologer in Bihar.

於是，我給了比哈爾邦的占星家一盧比。

So we were all four or five friends.

所以我們都是四五個朋友。

I gave him a handkerchief.

我給了他一塊手帕。

I told him to sleep.

我讓他睡覺。

He used to think he will become a great sage, a great leader.

他曾經以為自己會成為一個偉大的聖人，一個偉大的領袖。

Modi experienced a typical upbringing in a small rural town marked by relative poverty and an arranged marriage during his teenage years.

莫迪在一個相對貧窮的農村小鎮長大，青少年時期經歷了一場包辦婚姻。

Soon after marriage, he left the house, left the marriage and went away.

婚後不久，他就離開了家，離開了婚姻，遠走他鄉。

So around one and a half year to two years, he was roaming around like a vagabond.

是以，在一年半到兩年左右的時間裡，他像流浪漢一樣四處漂泊。

He got a unique understanding of poverty, not as an academic subject, but the actual thing.

他對貧困有了獨特的理解，不是把它當作一門學術，而是實實在在的事情。

He came to Ahmedabad and eventually joined RSS and his life changed.

他來到艾哈邁達巴德，最終加入了 RSS，他的生活從此改變。

The RSS stands for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the largest and most powerful Hindu group in the country advocating pro-Hindu causes.

RSS 是 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh 的縮寫，是該國最大、最有影響力的印度教團體，倡導親印度教的事業。

Modi quickly rose through the ranks.

莫迪迅速晉升。

But the RSS has a dark history.

但 RSS 有一段黑暗的歷史。

The group was banned for a year after one of its members assassinated Mahatma Gandhi, a preacher of non-violence and one of the most famous figures of the 20th century.

該組織的一名成員暗殺了聖雄甘地，他是非暴力的傳教士，也是 20 世紀最著名的人物之一。

Modi's knack for storytelling and captivating audiences emerged as the talent that propelled his political rise.

莫迪善於講故事和吸引觀眾，這是他推動政治崛起的天賦。

He is thinking the way masses think, the way Indian people would normally think.

他在用大眾的思維方式思考問題，用印度人通常的思維方式思考問題。

Modi used his ability to connect with large audiences to preach the RSS philosophy of Hindutva, a hardline form of Hindu nationalism that effectively equates being Indian with being Hindu.

莫迪利用他與廣大閱聽人溝通的能力宣揚 RSS 的印度教哲學，這是一種強硬的印度教民族主義，實際上將印度人等同於印度教徒。

While the RSS itself doesn't stand for elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party or the BJP serves as its political arm.

雖然 RSS 本身不參加選舉，但印度人民黨（BJP）是其政治分支。

Among the first lot of people who were deputed by the RSS to work in the BJP, it included Narendra Modi in Gujarat.

在第一批被 RSS 派往印度人民黨工作的人中，就包括古吉拉特邦的納倫德拉-莫迪。

That is how Mr. Modi came into the BJP.

莫迪先生就是這樣加入印度人民黨的。

When he joined the BJP, Modi held administrative responsibilities, managing events, marches and rallies.

加入印度人民黨時，莫迪負責行政工作，管理各種活動、遊行和集會。

He rose to prominence by helping to organize a movement to build a Hindu temple on a site where a mosque had stood for 500 years.

他幫助組織了一場在清真寺矗立了 500 年的地方修建印度教寺廟的運動，從而嶄露頭角。

The RSS and the BJP claimed the site in the city of Ayodhya was the original birthplace of Hindu god Ram and that Muslim invaders had built the mosque where a temple once stood.

RSS 和印度人民黨聲稱，阿約提亞城的遺址是印度教拉姆神最初的誕生地，穆斯林入侵者在曾經有寺廟的地方修建了清真寺。

The Hindus, within quotes, wanted that site back in order to build a suitable temple for Ram.

印度教徒希望收回這塊土地，以便為拉姆建造一座合適的神廟。

And finally in 1992, this resulted in the physical destruction of the mosque by what you can only call a mob, which was mobilized by the political parties.

最後，在 1992 年，這導致了清真寺被各政黨動員起來的暴徒摧毀。

The destruction of the mosque in 1992 would redefine Indian politics and set up Modi to eventually become the Chief Minister of Gujarat, one of India's wealthiest states, a decade later.

1992 年清真寺被毀事件重新定義了印度政治，並使莫迪在十年後最終成為印度最富有的邦之一古吉拉特邦的首席部長。

But just months after taking office on February 27, 2002, a deadly incident in Gujarat would scar Modi's image for decades to come.

但就在 2002 年 2 月 27 日上任幾個月後，古吉拉特邦發生的一起致命事件給莫迪的形象留下了幾十年的傷痕。

Nearly 60 men, women and children, all Hindus, were killed in a train fire.

近 60 名男子、婦女和兒童在火車火災中喪生，他們都是印度教徒。

Riots broke out across the state.

全州爆發了騷亂。

Hundreds of people, mostly Muslims, were killed.

數百人被殺害，其中大部分是穆斯林。

Modi was accused of not doing enough to stop the violence and the US would deny him a visa.

莫迪被指責在制止暴力方面做得不夠，美國將拒發他的簽證。

Years later, India's Supreme Court cleared Modi of any wrongdoing in the riots.

多年後，印度最高法院宣佈莫迪在騷亂中沒有任何過錯。

The Gujarat High Court would convict 31 Muslims for burning the train.

古吉拉特邦高等法院將判定 31 名穆斯林犯有焚燒火車罪。

Certainly what happened in Gujarat in 2002, the riots or pogrom as many people call it, did give Prime Minister Modi that image as somebody who represented that particular strident form of what we now call Hindutva.

當然，2002 年在古吉拉特邦發生的騷亂或許多人稱之為大屠殺的事件，確實給莫迪總理留下了這樣的印象，即他代表了我們現在稱之為印度教的那種特殊的強烈形式。

In the wake of the riots, Modi was under pressure from the opposition and even his own party.

騷亂髮生後，莫迪受到了來自反對黨甚至自己政黨的壓力。

But he called a fresh election and went on to run a defined re-election campaign as Chief Minister of Gujarat.

但他重新舉行了選舉，並在古吉拉特邦首席部長的競選中成功連任。

Hindus would rally behind Modi, leading to a landslide win.

印度教徒將支持莫迪，從而取得壓倒性勝利。

So that is how Mr. Modi suddenly became from the leader of a government and a party which was not very sure whether they will win the elections, to somebody who became the Hindu Hridaya Samrat, the emperor of Hindu hearts.

就這樣，莫迪先生突然從一個不確定能否贏得大選的政府和政黨的領導人，變成了印度教的Hridaya Samrat，印度教心中的皇帝。

Modi was poised to ascend onto the national stage.

莫迪準備登上國家舞臺。

But first, he had plenty of work to do in rehabilitating the image of Gujarat and himself.

但首先，他還有很多工作要做，以恢復古吉拉特邦和他自己的形象。

For the first time in the history of independent India, a sitting Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has been questioned on the role of his government in mass murders in connection with the post-Gujarat riots in Gujarat.

在印度獨立後的歷史上，現任首席部長納倫德拉-莫迪（Narendra Modi）首次被質疑其政府在古吉拉特邦騷亂後的大規模謀殺案中扮演的角色。

The riots in Gujarat had created a very serious situation for Gujarat.

古吉拉特邦的騷亂給古吉拉特邦造成了非常嚴重的局勢。

People were shying away from fresh investment because things did not look normal.

人們對新投資望而卻步，因為事情看起來並不正常。

As Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi quickly started implementing policies aimed at increasing economic productivity, hoping to turn around the fortunes of the state and his own brand.

擔任古吉拉特邦首席部長後，莫迪迅速開始實施旨在提高經濟生產力的政策，希望藉此扭轉該邦的命運和自己的品牌。

He decided the only way the image of Gujarat can be improved at that point, if we go back to 2002, is by projecting the image of a very peaceful state.

他認為，如果我們回到 2002 年，當時改善古吉拉特邦形象的唯一辦法就是塑造一個非常和平的邦的形象。

Simultaneously, Mr. Modi also realized that it is important to bring in investment.

與此同時，莫迪先生也意識到引進投資的重要性。

So there was a considerable pressure on us to do something which will re-establish Gujarat as the best destination for investment.

是以，我們面臨著相當大的壓力，必須做一些事情，將古吉拉特邦重新打造成最佳投資目的地。

And Vibrant Gujarat was basically an investor's meeting.

而 "活力古吉拉特 "基本上就是一個投資者會議。

Mr. Modi personally talked to most of them and assured them that his government will extend all the necessary support for them to do the business quickly.

莫迪先生親自與他們中的大多數人進行了交談，並向他們保證，他的政府將為他們迅速開展業務提供一切必要的支持。

India's top businessmen including Mukesh Ambani, Ratan Tata and Gautam Adani started flocking to the annual business summit.

包括穆克什-安巴尼（Mukesh Ambani）、拉坦-塔塔（Ratan Tata）和高塔姆-阿達尼（Gautam Adani）在內的印度頂級商人開始湧入這一年度商業峰會。

I would like to commend Mr. Modi and the entire government for making Gujarat as vibrant, as attractive and as conducive to investment as it is.

我要讚揚莫迪先生和整個政府使古吉拉特邦變得如此充滿活力、如此有吸引力、如此有利於投資。

India's super-rich got behind Modi and saw their wealth increase dramatically.

印度的超級富豪們支持莫迪，他們的財富急劇增加。

They came to dominate domestic industries such as the transportation, telecommunications and energy.

它們開始主導國內的運輸、電信和能源等行業。

So he became both, the development man who had not left his Hindu heart behind.

是以，他成為了兩者兼具的人，成為了一個沒有拋棄印度教之心的發展者。

Modi's outreach to wealthy industrialists spawned what became to be known as the Gujarat model.

莫迪向富有的實業家伸出援手，催生了後來眾所周知的古吉拉特模式。

A plan to cut red tape in a bid to attract investment.

削減繁文縟節以吸引投資的計劃。

At the same time, he focused on delivering tangible benefits to the poor.

與此同時，他還注重為窮人帶來實實在在的好處。

He was able to greatly correct the power shortage issue in Gujarat.

他極大地糾正了古吉拉特邦的電力短缺問題。

In the rural areas, decided to separate the grids for the domestic consumption and for the agricultural consumption.

在農村地區，決定將家庭用電和農業用電的電網分開。

Quite a revolutionary idea that the people became very happy that we do not have any power cuts in our residences.

這是一個相當具有革命性的想法，人們變得非常高興，因為我們的住所不會再停電了。

While Gujarat's industrial development didn't trickle down to everyone, in the 12 years he was in charge, the state's economy grew at an average of 10% each year.

雖然古吉拉特邦的工業發展並沒有惠及每個人，但在他掌權的 12 年裡，該邦的經濟平均每年增長 10%。

Higher than the national growth average.

高於全國平均增長水準。

And Modi rode that to power.

莫迪就是憑藉這一點上臺的。

That record made Modi the BJP's best candidate to oust the opposition which was hit hard by corruption allegations.

這一記錄使莫迪成為印度人民黨的最佳人選，以推翻因腐敗指控而遭受重創的反對黨。

The country should never be in such a state.

國家絕不應該處於這種狀態。

Politicians should be deprived.

政治家應該被剝奪。

Policies should be deprived.

政策應該被剝奪。

Modi promised to fix the economy, generate jobs and lower inflation, keeping Hindu issues on the back burner.

莫迪承諾解決經濟問題、創造就業機會和降低通貨膨脹，而印度教問題則被擱置一旁。

He does want to replicate the Gujarat success story, as he puts it, at the national level.

正如他所說，他確實希望在全國範圍內複製古吉拉特邦的成功經驗。