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  • The Indian economy is booming. This year, the country's GDP is expected to grow between 6 and 7 percent.

    印度經濟正在蓬勃發展。今年,印度的國內生產總值預計將增長 6% 到 7%。

  • India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. We see India growing from about $3.5 trillion in 2023 to about $7 trillion by the end of the decade.

    印度是世界上增長最快的主要經濟體。我們認為印度將從 2023 年的約 3.5 萬億美元增長到本十年末的約 7 萬億美元。

  • Although the U.S. and China still dwarf the nation in terms of total gross domestic product, powered by a population of 1.4 billion, India could become the leader in global economic growth.

    儘管美國和中國在國內生產總值總量上仍使印度相形見絀,但憑藉 14 億人口的優勢,印度有可能成為全球經濟增長的領頭羊。

  • Many of the world's investment banks have keyed in on India as a real prime investment destination right now.


  • Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays.


  • With so much investment coming in, companies around the world may soon need to have an India strategy.


  • But what will it take for the country to get ahead?


  • For now, China still holds the crown as the main driver for global economic growth.


  • Its economic opening in the late 70s only accelerated after 2001, when it joined the World Trade Organization.

    70 年代末期的經濟開放只是在 2001 年加入世界貿易組織後才加速。

  • It was the country that attracted foreign investment. It was the driver of financial markets and global capital markets.


  • Every company around the world needed a strategy to deal with China.


  • India didn't start to liberalize its economy till the 90s, and it's been a slow climb since.

    印度直到上世紀 90 年代才開始實行經濟自由化,此後一直在緩慢攀升。

  • But with current levels at about 7 percent, growing just a bit faster is all it needs to surpass China.

    但目前的增長水準約為 7%,只要再快一點,就能超過中國。

  • India's per capita income has grown sevenfold from the early 90s to now.

    從上世紀 90 年代初到現在,印度的個人所得增長了七倍。

  • There has been significant progress also in the financial markets.


  • These boxes represent economic growth in 2023.

    這些方框代表 2023 年的經濟增長。

  • China, on the left, contributed close to a third, while India took second place.


  • But look at how this changes if India grew about one percent faster a year.


  • By 2028, the new picture is this.

    到 2028 年,新的情況將是這樣的。

  • Geopolitics and China's own internal struggles are tipping this trend in India's favor.


  • What you're seeing recently is investors around the world, as they sort of shift out of China, are actually putting a lot of new funds into India.


  • Nowhere is this more evident than at the Samsung Noida factory on the outskirts of New Delhi.


  • This area was farmland a decade ago.


  • Now it's the world's largest mobile phone factory, producing 120 million handsets a year.

    現在,它是世界上最大的手機工廠,每年生產 1.2 億部手機。

  • Samsung opened the plant in 2018, when business in China was becoming increasingly difficult.

    三星於 2018 年開設了這家工廠,當時在中國的業務正變得越來越困難。

  • It isn't alone.


  • As the Chinese economy stumbles, businesses from Apple to Boeing are looking elsewhere, and at India in particular.


  • India was growing fast enough to take the lead as recently as 2021, and the government says it can do it again.

    印度的發展速度之快足以在 2021 年取得領先地位,印度政府表示,印度可以再次取得領先地位。

  • But first, it must overcome some major hurdles in these key areas, manufacturing, urbanization, workforce and infrastructure.


  • Let's start with manufacturing.


  • For decades, China has been the world's dominant force in manufacturing.


  • China is the assembly line to the world.


  • Manufacturing makes up 26 percent of China's economy, while in India it's only 16 percent.

    製造業佔中國經濟的 26%,而印度僅為 16%。

  • The government aims that the share of manufacturing should grow up to 25 percent by 2025.

    政府的目標是,到 2025 年,製造業的比重應增長到 25%。

  • To boost manufacturing, some 150 million Indians still working as farmers would need to move and take jobs at factories.

    為促進製造業發展,約 1.5 億仍在務農的印度人需要搬遷到工廠工作。

  • This change would drive urbanization.


  • Decades ago, both China and India had huge rural economies and were largely dependent on farming.


  • In the 1990s, China very rapidly urbanized its economy, moving away from a traditional rural agricultural economy and to a much more modern urban industrial economy.

    20 世紀 90 年代,中國經濟迅速城市化,從傳統的農村農業經濟轉向更加現代化的城市工業經濟。

  • 64 percent of China's population lives in urban areas.

    中國 64% 的人口居住在城市地區。

  • In India, it's 36 percent.

    在印度,這一比例為 36%。

  • India needs a lot more cities.


  • There is a lot of progress already happening in terms of interconnectivity for the cities.


  • More railway network, better infrastructure for airports and so forth.


  • But there are crucial problems like water, like traffic, like urban housing that needs to be solved.


  • An urban population supports a robust workforce.


  • And in 2023, India overtook China as the world's most populous nation.

    2023 年,印度將超過中國,成為世界上人口最多的國家。

  • And while China's population is aging, more than half of Indians are under 30, prime working age.

    在中國人口老齡化的同時,一半以上的印度人還不到 30 歲,處於黃金工作年齡。

  • It is going to be harboring the youngest workforce in the world.


  • Now, this is very important because history has shown that whenever demographic dividend is on the side of a country, that country grows really rapidly.


  • There's no point to having a large, young, growing population if you don't have enough jobs for them all.


  • Unemployment in the country remains stubbornly high at around 7 percent.

    該國的失業率仍然頑固地保持在 7% 左右。

  • And in part because of poor quality of education, about half of all college graduates remain unemployable.


  • On top of this, not enough women in India work.


  • China has a female workforce of about 45 percent.

    中國的女性勞動力比例約為 45%。

  • In India, it's 29 percent.

    在印度,這一比例為 29%。

  • Closing the gender work gap could expand India's GDP by nearly a third by 2050.

    縮小男女工作差距可使印度的國內生產總值到 2050 年增長近三分之一。

  • A lot of economists believe that if India can find enough jobs for all of these people, then really the sky's the limit in terms of what growth can be.


  • An increase in manufacturing will in turn create demand for more service jobs and incentivize people to join an urban workforce.


  • But to achieve this transformation, India needs infrastructure and lots of it.


  • For a long time, India has been plagued by inadequate roads, insufficient or poorly maintained railroads, not enough airports, not enough seaports.


  • So infrastructure is really one way in which China overtook India early.


  • In the 90s, India's railway network was 15 percent bigger than China's.

    上世紀 90 年代,印度的鐵路網比中國大 15%。

  • But as China's economy started growing, it quickly took the lead.


  • And its rail network is now 60 percent bigger.

    其鐵路網絡現在擴大了 60%。

  • India is making progress.


  • The country's national highway network has expanded more than 50 percent since 2014.

    自 2014 年以來,該國的國家高速公路網已擴大了 50%以上。

  • If India can address these challenges, then foreign direct investment will likely increase.


  • That inflow of money is an essential driver of growth.


  • But accomplishing all of this is no easy feat.


  • India also needs to increase its ease of doing business.


  • The bureaucracy is such that it is not very easy to start a business in India and operate.


  • Even though the Modi government is behind on some of its goals, many in India remain optimistic that it can overtake China as the world's biggest driver of growth.


  • So one thing really working in India's favor more and more recently is simply that it's not China.


  • The administration of Narendra Modi recognizes that the U.S. and other countries in the West are looking for a partner in the region that's not China to sort of partner at a time when China is growing more assertive in the region and more closed off to foreign companies and foreign investors.

    納倫德拉-莫迪(Narendra Modi)政府認識到,美國和其他西方國家正在該地區尋找一個不是中國的合作伙伴,以在中國在該地區日益強硬、對外國公司和外國投資者日益封閉的時候建立合作伙伴關係。

  • Who is Narendra Modi?


  • Well, it depends on who you ask.


  • India's prime minister makes the impossible possible.


  • He is very conscious of his image in history.


  • He has completely seduced the Hindi-Hindu belt.


  • Some view him as the most effective prime minister in the history of India.


  • He is passionately worshipped by millions and hailed as one of the world's most popular leaders with approval ratings surpassing 70 percent.

    他受到數百萬人的熱情崇拜,被譽為世界上最受歡迎的領導人之一,支持率超過 70%。

  • Democracy delivers and democracy empowers.


  • On the other hand, critics see him as an autocratic Hindu nationalist who marginalizes minorities and undermines democratic norms.


  • The idea that India is a democracy, this is a lie.


  • He is a champion to the poor and friend of billionaires.


  • He has lifted millions out of extreme poverty even as the country's inequality continues to widen.


  • So who is Narendra Modi?


  • Former colleagues, bureaucrats and historians give us an inside view of the man who runs one of the world's most dynamic economies to understand how exactly he got here and why he is so polarized.


  • Narendra Damodar Das Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

    納倫德拉-達莫達爾-達斯-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

  • Narendra Modi used to sell tea. I used to sell tea with Narendra Modi.


  • Friends, when I was a child, I used to sell tea in the train ticket box.


  • And today, I am standing in front of you.


  • Narendra Modi was born on September 17, 1950 in the town of Varnagar, situated in the western Indian state of Gujarat.

    納倫德拉-莫迪於 1950 年 9 月 17 日出生於印度西部古吉拉特邦的瓦爾納加爾鎮。

  • An astrologer came here. I used to study in school.


  • So I gave one rupee to the astrologer in Bihar.


  • So we were all four or five friends.


  • I gave him a handkerchief.


  • I told him to sleep.


  • He used to think he will become a great sage, a great leader.


  • Modi experienced a typical upbringing in a small rural town marked by relative poverty and an arranged marriage during his teenage years.


  • Soon after marriage, he left the house, left the marriage and went away.


  • So around one and a half year to two years, he was roaming around like a vagabond.


  • He got a unique understanding of poverty, not as an academic subject, but the actual thing.


  • He came to Ahmedabad and eventually joined RSS and his life changed.

    他來到艾哈邁達巴德,最終加入了 RSS,他的生活從此改變。

  • The RSS stands for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the largest and most powerful Hindu group in the country advocating pro-Hindu causes.

    RSS 是 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh 的縮寫,是該國最大、最有影響力的印度教團體,倡導親印度教的事業。

  • Modi quickly rose through the ranks.


  • But the RSS has a dark history.

    但 RSS 有一段黑暗的歷史。

  • The group was banned for a year after one of its members assassinated Mahatma Gandhi, a preacher of non-violence and one of the most famous figures of the 20th century.

    該組織的一名成員暗殺了聖雄甘地,他是非暴力的傳教士,也是 20 世紀最著名的人物之一。

  • Modi's knack for storytelling and captivating audiences emerged as the talent that propelled his political rise.


  • He is thinking the way masses think, the way Indian people would normally think.


  • Modi used his ability to connect with large audiences to preach the RSS philosophy of Hindutva, a hardline form of Hindu nationalism that effectively equates being Indian with being Hindu.

    莫迪利用他與廣大閱聽人溝通的能力宣揚 RSS 的印度教哲學,這是一種強硬的印度教民族主義,實際上將印度人等同於印度教徒。

  • While the RSS itself doesn't stand for elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party or the BJP serves as its political arm.

    雖然 RSS 本身不參加選舉,但印度人民黨(BJP)是其政治分支。

  • Among the first lot of people who were deputed by the RSS to work in the BJP, it included Narendra Modi in Gujarat.

    在第一批被 RSS 派往印度人民黨工作的人中,就包括古吉拉特邦的納倫德拉-莫迪。

  • That is how Mr. Modi came into the BJP.


  • When he joined the BJP, Modi held administrative responsibilities, managing events, marches and rallies.


  • He rose to prominence by helping to organize a movement to build a Hindu temple on a site where a mosque had stood for 500 years.

    他幫助組織了一場在清真寺矗立了 500 年的地方修建印度教寺廟的運動,從而嶄露頭角。

  • The RSS and the BJP claimed the site in the city of Ayodhya was the original birthplace of Hindu god Ram and that Muslim invaders had built the mosque where a temple once stood.

    RSS 和印度人民黨聲稱,阿約提亞城的遺址是印度教拉姆神最初的誕生地,穆斯林入侵者在曾經有寺廟的地方修建了清真寺。

  • The Hindus, within quotes, wanted that site back in order to build a suitable temple for Ram.


  • And finally in 1992, this resulted in the physical destruction of the mosque by what you can only call a mob, which was mobilized by the political parties.

    最後,在 1992 年,這導致了清真寺被各政黨動員起來的暴徒摧毀。

  • The destruction of the mosque in 1992 would redefine Indian politics and set up Modi to eventually become the Chief Minister of Gujarat, one of India's wealthiest states, a decade later.

    1992 年清真寺被毀事件重新定義了印度政治,並使莫迪在十年後最終成為印度最富有的邦之一古吉拉特邦的首席部長。

  • But just months after taking office on February 27, 2002, a deadly incident in Gujarat would scar Modi's image for decades to come.

    但就在 2002 年 2 月 27 日上任幾個月後,古吉拉特邦發生的一起致命事件給莫迪的形象留下了幾十年的傷痕。

  • Nearly 60 men, women and children, all Hindus, were killed in a train fire.

    近 60 名男子、婦女和兒童在火車火災中喪生,他們都是印度教徒。

  • Riots broke out across the state.


  • Hundreds of people, mostly Muslims, were killed.


  • Modi was accused of not doing enough to stop the violence and the US would deny him a visa.


  • Years later, India's Supreme Court cleared Modi of any wrongdoing in the riots.


  • The Gujarat High Court would convict 31 Muslims for burning the train.

    古吉拉特邦高等法院將判定 31 名穆斯林犯有焚燒火車罪。

  • Certainly what happened in Gujarat in 2002, the riots or pogrom as many people call it, did give Prime Minister Modi that image as somebody who represented that particular strident form of what we now call Hindutva.

    當然,2002 年在古吉拉特邦發生的騷亂或許多人稱之為大屠殺的事件,確實給莫迪總理留下了這樣的印象,即他代表了我們現在稱之為印度教的那種特殊的強烈形式。

  • In the wake of the riots, Modi was under pressure from the opposition and even his own party.


  • But he called a fresh election and went on to run a defined re-election campaign as Chief Minister of Gujarat.


  • Hindus would rally behind Modi, leading to a landslide win.


  • So that is how Mr. Modi suddenly became from the leader of a government and a party which was not very sure whether they will win the elections, to somebody who became the Hindu Hridaya Samrat, the emperor of Hindu hearts.

    就這樣,莫迪先生突然從一個不確定能否贏得大選的政府和政黨的領導人,變成了印度教的Hridaya Samrat,印度教心中的皇帝。

  • Modi was poised to ascend onto the national stage.


  • But first, he had plenty of work to do in rehabilitating the image of Gujarat and himself.


  • For the first time in the history of independent India, a sitting Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has been questioned on the role of his government in mass murders in connection with the post-Gujarat riots in Gujarat.

    在印度獨立後的歷史上,現任首席部長納倫德拉-莫迪(Narendra Modi)首次被質疑其政府在古吉拉特邦騷亂後的大規模謀殺案中扮演的角色。

  • The riots in Gujarat had created a very serious situation for Gujarat.


  • People were shying away from fresh investment because things did not look normal.


  • As Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi quickly started implementing policies aimed at increasing economic productivity, hoping to turn around the fortunes of the state and his own brand.


  • He decided the only way the image of Gujarat can be improved at that point, if we go back to 2002, is by projecting the image of a very peaceful state.

    他認為,如果我們回到 2002 年,當時改善古吉拉特邦形象的唯一辦法就是塑造一個非常和平的邦的形象。

  • Simultaneously, Mr. Modi also realized that it is important to bring in investment.


  • So there was a considerable pressure on us to do something which will re-establish Gujarat as the best destination for investment.


  • And Vibrant Gujarat was basically an investor's meeting.

    而 "活力古吉拉特 "基本上就是一個投資者會議。

  • Mr. Modi personally talked to most of them and assured them that his government will extend all the necessary support for them to do the business quickly.


  • India's top businessmen including Mukesh Ambani, Ratan Tata and Gautam Adani started flocking to the annual business summit.

    包括穆克什-安巴尼(Mukesh Ambani)、拉坦-塔塔(Ratan Tata)和高塔姆-阿達尼(Gautam Adani)在內的印度頂級商人開始湧入這一年度商業峰會。

  • I would like to commend Mr. Modi and the entire government for making Gujarat as vibrant, as attractive and as conducive to investment as it is.