Name: 比特幣創新高：自 2021 年加密貨幣大漲以來發生了什麼變化？ (Bitcoin’s New Record Highs: What’s Changed Since 2021’s Crypto Rally | WSJ Then vs. Now)
Uploaded: 2024-06-11T04:37:12.000Z
Duration: 5 min 24 s

第二類條件句型

If you bought one Bitcoin in 2019 at $4,000, it'd be worth over $70,000 right now, a 1,700% return.

如果你在 2019 年以 4000 美元的價格買入一枚比特幣，那麼它現在的價值將超過 7 萬美元，回報率高達 1700%。

情態助動詞 B1

Sound familiar? In 2021, that same investment would have been worth $58,000.

聽起來熟悉嗎？在 2021 年，同樣的投資價值為 58,000 美元。

But just six months later… Crypto king to criminal suspects.

但僅僅六個月後......加密貨幣之王就變成了犯罪嫌疑人。

It's not just big companies, but real people losing a lot of money.

損失慘重的不僅僅是大公司，還有普通人。

The crypto market's capitalization fell from $2.9 trillion to $798 billion.  But there are two differences between then and now that could change how long this run lasts and who's affected.

加密貨幣市場的市值從 2.9 萬億美元降至 7980 億美元。  但是，當時和現在有兩個不同之處，可能會改變這次下跌的持續時間和受影響的人群。

First, let's look into where the money going into this surge is coming from.

首先，讓我們來看看用於增資的資金從何而來。

In 2024, inflation has largely settled compared to before.

2024 年，通貨膨脹與之前相比已基本穩定。

Consumers are still spending, and breakthroughs in AI are helping to drive a market rally.

消費者仍在消費，而人工智能的突破正在幫助推動市場反彈。

The Dow even passed $40,000 for the first time ever in May.

今年 5 月，道瓊斯指數甚至首次突破了 40,000 美元。

All of this means investors have more cash on hand to bet on riskier assets, creating the right environment for a run on crypto.

所有這一切都意味著投資者手頭有更多的現金來押注風險更高的資產，為加密貨幣的上漲創造了合適的環境。

These markets go up.  Unlike 2024, the 2021 crypto rally took place during a different type of market rally, beginning here.

這些市場都會上漲。  與 2024 年不同，2021 年的加密貨幣反彈發生在不同類型的市場反彈期間，從這裡開始。

COVID 一經推出，市場便一落千丈。

So the Federal Reserve stepped in, spending trillions of dollars to reverse this drop.

於是，美聯儲介入，花費數萬億美元來扭轉這一下降趨勢。

And the Treasury sent Americans stimulus checks to keep the economy churning.

財政部還向美國人寄發了刺激經濟的支票，以保持經濟繁榮。

We got the stimulus checks and a lot of retail investors put it into the crypto market.

我們拿到了刺激經濟的支票，很多散戶投資者把錢投入了加密貨幣市場。

It's sort of a reflection of a lot of money sloshing around in the markets.

這反映出市場上有大量資金在流動。

And they found their way into these speculative corners of the markets.

他們發現自己進入了市場的投機角落。

That's why crypto went up so much during the pandemic era.  Then that influx stopped.

這就是為什麼加密貨幣在大流行時期漲幅如此之大。  然後，湧入就停止了。

In 2022, inflation became a real problem.

2022 年，通貨膨脹成為一個真正的問題。

The Federal Reserve said it was going to raise interest rates to tame price pressures.

美聯儲表示將提高利率，以抑制價格壓力。

All of a sudden, all kinds of risky assets and crypto went down.

突然間，各種風險資產和加密貨幣都下跌了。

Then immediately things started breaking.  While crypto is still considered risky today, some say that current underlying market conditions could keep the rally going a bit longer.

緊接著，事情開始變得撲朔迷離。  雖然如今加密貨幣仍被認為是有風險的，但有人說，目前的潛在市場條件可能會讓漲勢持續更久一些。

A lot of crypto bulls believe that there is no limit in terms of where Bitcoin can go.

很多加密貨幣多頭認為，比特幣的發展空間是無限的。

Some have put out really aggressive price targets of more than a million.

有些人提出了非常激進的目標價格，超過 100 萬美元。

And the way retail investors are placing their bets differently factors into those price targets.  This year, regulators approved a new, easier way to invest in crypto.

而散戶投資者下注的方式不同，也是影響這些價格目標的因素之一。  今年，監管機構準許了一種新的、更便捷的加密貨幣投資方式。

They allow investors to buy into a fund, the F part of ETF, that then buys Bitcoins.

它們允許投資者購買基金，即 ETF 的 F 部分，然後購買比特幣。

And since ETFs are available in most major brokerage accounts, investing in Bitcoins has become easier.

由於大多數主要經紀賬戶都有 ETF，投資比特幣變得更加容易。

So you can open your trading app and then just buy Bitcoin alongside your other assets.

是以，您可以打開交易應用程序，然後在購買其他資產的同時購買比特幣。

They're run by Wall Street giants like Fidelity and BlackRock, who take on the responsibility of safeguarding customers' Bitcoin holdings against hacking and other cybersecurity risks.  There were a lot of expectations for these Bitcoin ETFs to open the gateway for retail investors.

它們由富達（Fidelity）和貝萊德（BlackRock）等華爾街巨頭營運，負責保護客戶持有的比特幣免受黑客攻擊和其他網絡安全風險。  人們對這些比特幣 ETF 抱有很大期望，希望它們能為散戶投資者打開大門。

That sort of translated into higher price for Bitcoin.

這某種程度上轉化成了比特幣價格的上漲。

Because the more money you put into these funds, the asset managers would then go out and buy Bitcoin.

因為你投入這些基金的錢越多，資產管理公司就會去購買比特幣。

So it becomes sort of a circular trend where the more investors want to buy Bitcoin, the more the price of Bitcoin goes up.

是以，投資者越想購買比特幣，比特幣的價格就越上漲，這就成了一種循環趨勢。

In the last rally, most investors still had to trade on crypto exchanges.

在上一輪反彈中，大多數投資者仍不得不在加密貨幣交易所進行交易。

Many put their money into new, unregulated exchanges like FTX, which collapsed when investors tried to withdraw their money en masse.

許多人將資金投入 FTX 等不受監管的新交易所，但當投資者試圖大規模撤資時，FTX 倒閉了。

The collapse of FTX has sent shockwaves across the cryptocurrency industry.

FTX 的倒閉給整個加密貨幣行業帶來了震動。

FTX didn't have enough money to cover the transactions, partly because executives had used customer deposits for personal spending and other illegal activities.

FTX 沒有足夠的資金來支付這些交易，部分原因是高管將客戶存款用於個人消費和其他非法活動。

It really kind of tainted the reputation of the crypto industry, and Bitcoin started falling rapidly to as low as $16,000 towards the end of 2022.  But with these high-profile bad actors flushed out and Wall Street on the crypto bandwagon, the cryptocurrency market now has investors who were skeptical before pushing the market cap to $2.6 trillion.

這確實有點玷汙了加密貨幣行業的聲譽，比特幣在 2022 年底開始迅速下跌，最低跌至 16000 美元。  但是，隨著這些高調的壞演員被沖走，華爾街也加入了加密貨幣的行列，加密貨幣市場現在已經擁有了之前持懷疑態度的投資者，將市值推高到了 2.6 萬億美元。

It kind of brought this sense of comfort for investors who are familiar with these Wall Street brands and know that the asset they invested in is in a more regulated vehicle.  But crypto's main attraction is still its promise of high risks and high rewards.

這給熟悉華爾街這些品牌的投資者帶來了一種舒適感，因為他們知道自己投資的資產是在一個更受監管的工具中。  但是，加密貨幣的主要吸引力仍然在於它承諾的高風險和高回報。

 A lot of crypto skeptics believe that even though Bitcoin is going up now, it's bound to repeat its previous trajectory of going down or maybe even going to zero.

很多對加密貨幣持懷疑態度的人認為，儘管比特幣現在在上漲，但它一定會重蹈覆轍，下跌甚至歸零。