Name: 房價為最大主因！為什麼在澳洲生活根本是「不可能的任務」？！ (Why Living In Australia Is Impossible)
Uploaded: 2024-06-03T11:24:42.000Z
Duration: 14 min 53 s

情態副詞

2023, for only the third time in 40 years, Australia entered a per capita recession.

2023 年，澳洲 40 年來第三次出現人均經濟衰退。

Australian wages declined to levels not seen since June 2011.

澳洲工資降至 2011 年 6 月以來的最低水平。

Even with devastating bushfires, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, wind pulled, there was one thing that affected Australians more than anything else.

即使發生了毀滅性的叢林大火、COVID-19 大流行病和封鎖、大風，但有一件事對澳大利亞人的影響最大。

Over the last few decades, Australia has experienced one of the greatest housing booms the world has ever seen.

在過去的幾十年裡，澳洲經歷了世界上有史以來最大規模的住房繁榮。

Since 1973, Australian house prices have increased by 36 times across the capital cities and

自 1973 年以來，澳洲各大城市的房價上漲了 36 倍，其中包括

Sydney is now the second most unaffordable place to live in the world.

雪梨現在是世界上第二最負擔不起的居住地。

Australia is one of the most beautiful places in the entire world.

澳洲是全世界最美麗的地方之一。

Surrounded by oceans filled with world class beaches, cities and parks, the country looks like a paradise.

該國四面環海，擁有世界級的海灘、城市和公園，宛如世外桃源。

But if you want to live here, it's easier said than done.

但如果你想住在這裡，說起來容易做起來難。

To buy the median home in Melbourne, a family needs to earn at least $170,000 per year.

要在墨爾本購買中位數住房，一個家庭的年收入至少需要 17 萬美元。

In Sydney, that number balloons to $260,000 per year.

在雪梨，這一數字膨脹到每年 26 萬美元。

Compare this to the median household income in both cities of $100,000 and it becomes clear that home ownership is far out of reach for most Australians.

與這兩個城市 10 萬澳元的家庭收入中位數相比，大多數澳大利亞人顯然無法擁有自己的住房。

Now some might argue that this is only a Sydney or Melbourne issue, but that's just not the case.

也許有人會說，這只是雪梨或墨爾本的問題，但事實並非如此。

Since 2020, house prices in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have increased by over 50% while wages only grew 12%.

自 2020 年以來，布里斯班、阿德萊德和珀斯的房價上漲了 50%以上，而工資僅增長了 12%。

Home ownership is becoming less and less attainable for many Australians, especially young Australians.

對於許多澳大利亞人，尤其是年輕的澳大利亞人來說，擁有住房的機會越來越少。

Young people have not had the luxury to benefit from skyrocketing home values and are constantly playing catch up.

年輕人沒有享受到房價飛漲帶來的好處，只能不斷追趕。

Home ownership rates for people under 34 have declined nearly 25%.

34 歲以下人群的住房擁有率下降了近 25%。

The craziest example of Australia's housing crisis was this home in Sydney.

澳洲住房危機最瘋狂的例子莫過於雪梨的這棟住宅。

It was sold without a toilet, without power, and without a kitchen.

出售時沒有廁所，沒有電源，也沒有廚房。

But that didn't stop a bidding war and someone paying $3.5 million.

但這並不能阻止一場競標戰，有人出價 350 萬美元。

Surely you can find a decent place to rent.

你肯定能找到一個像樣的地方租住。

Australian rents in Sydney exceed $3,000 per month, while Brisbane is not too far behind $2,500.

澳洲雪梨的月租金超過 3000 澳元，而布里斯班也不差 2500 澳元。

Historically, Australian rental rates increased at a reasonable amount per year.

從歷史上看，澳洲的租金每年都有合理的增長。

However, since 2020, annual rental rates have skyrocketed by over 8% per year.

然而，自 2020 年以來，年租金每年飆升 8%以上。

People are caught between a rock and a hard place trying to pay 2024 rental prices with 2011 wages.

用 2011 年的工資來支付 2024 年的租金價格，讓人們左右為難。

And this would all be fine and dandy if people could find a place to live, but the demand for rental units is insatiable.

如果人們能找到住處，這一切都會變得很好，但對出租房的需求卻無法滿足。

Every rental unit application is met with dozens if not hundreds of competing applications.

每一份租房申請都會遇到幾十份甚至上百份競爭申請。

Viewings have lines wrapped around blocks and at the end of the day, renters aren't fighting for anything beyond a place to live, a place to sleep, and a place to call home.

看房的隊伍排成了一條條的長龍，說到底，租房者所爭取的並不只是一個住的地方、一個睡覺的地方和一個可以稱之為家的地方。

The dream of working hard to afford a comfortable life is slowly fading.

努力工作才能過上舒適生活的夢想正在慢慢破滅。

And hardworking, honest Australians are left feeling hopeless.

而勤勞、誠實的澳大利亞人則感到絕望。

All of this begs the question, why is real estate out of control?

綜上所述，我們不禁要問：為什麼房地產會失控？

The first culprit that many point to is immigration.

許多人指出的第一個罪魁禍首是移民。

From 2022 to 2023, Australia welcomed nearly 740,000 people.

從 2022 年到 2023 年，澳洲接待了近 74 萬人。

To put things into perspective, that's more immigrants than any year in modern Australian history and 200,000 more than pre-covid levels.

要知道，這比澳洲現代史上任何一年的移民人數都要多，比科維德時期前的水準還多出 20 萬人。

The impact of this huge spike in immigration is simple, more demand with the same housing supply equals higher prices.

移民人數激增帶來的影響很簡單，在住房供應不變的情況下，需求增加就意味著房價上漲。

Specifically, economists and analysts believe that immigration has primarily impacted rental housing.

具體而言，經濟學家和分析師認為，移民主要影響了出租房。

The bulk of immigrants to Australia are temporary visa holders and 70% of them are renters.

澳洲的大部分移民都是臨時簽證持有者，其中 70% 是租房者。

The impact hits hard in migrant heavy suburbs.

移民密集的郊區受到的影響最大。

For example, Melbourne's southeast or Sydney's inner southwest saw 18% jumps in rents in the last year.

例如，墨爾本東南部或雪梨內西南部的租金在去年躍升了 18%。

In addition, immigrants are often willing to split their unit with more people to stretch their dollar, out-competing locals.

此外，移民往往願意與更多的人合住，以節省開支，從而超過當地人。

This has led to an increased yield on rental rates on real estate that had not been seen in Australia for decades.

這導致房地產租金收益率提高，這是澳洲幾十年來從未有過的。

The argument that immigrants are a primary contributor to the increase in housing prices is quite weak.

關於移民是房價上漲的主要推手的論點是相當薄弱的。

Australia's migration rate has actually decreased over the last decade and is in line with historical averages.

在過去十年中，澳洲的移民率實際上有所下降，符合歷史平均水平。

However, over the preceding years and decades, there is one big difference.

然而，在過去的幾年和幾十年中，有一個很大的不同。

While immigration has continued to grow with the population, housing starts have declined.

雖然移民人數持續增長，但住房開工率卻有所下降。

The construction industry is facing a catch-22 with the cost of building a new home rising again.

隨著新房建造成本的再次上升，建築業正面臨著一個困境。

In 2023, 170,000 dwellings were completed, the lowest amount in a decade.

2023 年，17 萬套住宅竣工，是十年來的最低水平。

At the same time, Australia saw the biggest spikes in immigration in a generation.

與此同時，澳洲出現了一代人以來最大的移民高峰。

Since 1966, the number of homes being built relative to the population of Australia has been declining.

自 1966 年以來，相對於澳洲人口而言，住宅建設數量一直在下降。

Specifically, in the year 2000, building rates fell off a cliff, creating a significant supply shortage whose impact can still be felt today.

具體來說，2000 年，建築率斷崖式下跌，造成了嚴重的供應短缺，其影響至今仍可感受到。

One of the main culprits for Australia's decline in housing starts is culture.

澳洲住房開工率下降的罪魁禍首之一是文化。

Australia is a very suburban environment where communities and citizens have opted for urban sprawl over densification.

澳洲是一個郊區化非常嚴重的國家，那裡的社區和市民都選擇了城市無序擴張，而不是密集化。

For example, Sydney and Melbourne have about 2,000 people per square kilometer.

例如，雪梨和墨爾本每平方公里約有 2000 人。

Compare this to 6,000 in London, 4,400 in Munich, and 3,600 in Amsterdam.

相比之下，倫敦為 6000 人，慕尼黑為 4400 人，阿姆斯特丹為 3600 人。

When compared to other major western cities, Australian cities are some of the least densely populated in the world.

與其他西方大城市相比，澳洲城市是世界上人口密度最低的城市之一。

Many Australians believe that a suburban environment is ideal for raising families and safe communities.

許多澳大利亞人認為，郊區環境是養家餬口和安全社區的理想選擇。

Thankfully, Australia has a ton of land that is mostly unpopulated.

值得慶幸的是，澳洲有大量的土地，大部分都沒有人煙。

Theoretically, they can continue to build outward and maintain sprawl.

理論上，他們可以繼續向外建設，保持無序擴張。

Sydney alone could add 280,000 homes in its greenfield growth areas.

僅雪梨的綠地增長區就可增加 28 萬套住房。

But sadly, this would work in theory, but Australia has a major NIMBY problem.

但遺憾的是，這在理論上是可行的，但澳洲存在嚴重的 "NIMBY "問題。

Even though Australia is going through an extreme housing crisis, March 2024 saw the lowest number of detached home approvals since 2012.

儘管澳洲正在經歷一場嚴重的住房危機，但 2024 年 3 月的獨立住宅審批數量仍創下了 2012 年以來的新低。

These aren't high rise condos, these are detached, single family, suburban homes.

這些不是高層公寓，而是獨立的郊區獨戶住宅。

Strong community advocacy and government red tape lead to extremely long approval times for housing developments.

社區的大力倡導和政府的繁文縟節導致住房開發的審批時間極長。

For example, to receive an approval for a single home development in New South Wales, it takes 111 days on average.

例如，在新南威爾士州，單個住宅開發項目獲得準許平均需要 111 天。

在利物浦，這一數字躍升至 288 天。

Compare this to Texas where it generally takes less than a week.

相比之下，德克薩斯州一般只需要不到一週的時間。

These long wait times have made it impossible for the government to achieve home building targets.

這些漫長的等待時間使得政府無法實現建房目標。

Specifically, Australia is on track to build 40% less homes than needed to meet the government's affordable housing targets.

具體而言，澳洲的住房建造量將比實現政府經濟適用房目標所需的數量少 40%。

The low rate of approvals for housing has created an artificial land scarcity, which in turn has driven up the price of land.

住房審批率低造成了人為的土地稀缺，進而推高了土地價格。

Since 2020, home values have risen at three times the rate of apartments.

自 2020 年以來，住宅價值的漲幅是公寓的三倍。

With land becoming such a scarce resource, it further challenges developments, as it becomes increasingly expensive to acquire and develop land economically.

隨著土地日益成為稀缺資源，獲取和經濟開發土地的成本也越來越高，這給開發帶來了更多挑戰。

But this is almost entirely by design, as scarce land benefits homeowners.

但這幾乎完全是設計好的，因為稀缺的土地有利於房主。

This has had a tremendous impact on young people in particular.

這尤其對年輕人產生了巨大影響。

Remember, home ownership rates for young people have dropped by 25%, compared to only 8% for the general population.

請記住，年輕人的住房擁有率下降了 25%，而普通人的住房擁有率僅為 8%。

Ok, we can all agree that immigration and low development rates are worsening Australia's housing crisis, but there is another critical factor at play.

好吧，我們都同意移民和低開發率加劇了澳洲的住房危機，但還有另一個關鍵因素在起作用。

During the 1930s, Australia had a major housing shortage, and wanted to encourage investment in rental properties.

20 世紀 30 年代，澳洲住房嚴重短缺，希望鼓勵投資出租房。

To encourage this, the country introduced negative gearing.

為了鼓勵這種做法，該國引入了負資產負債率。

Negative gearing allows an investor to offset the losses on a rental property against their personal income.

負資產負債表允許投資者用個人收入抵消出租物業的損失。

For example, if you make $100,000 per year and lost $10,000 on your rental property, you can deduct the $10,000 off your personal income tax.

例如，如果您的年收入為 100,000 美元，而您的出租房產損失了 10,000 美元，那麼您可以從個人所得稅中扣除這 10,000 美元。

In fact, out of the entire OECD, only New Zealand and Japan have these policies.

事實上，在整個經合組織中，只有紐西蘭和日本有這些政策。

During the 1980s, the government tried to change negative gearing rules, imposing restrictions on deductions that can be claimed, similar to the United Kingdom, but this was met with significant backlash and negative gearing was returned to its original form.

20 世紀 80 年代，政府曾試圖改變負資產負債率規則，對可申請的扣除額施加限制，這與英國的做法類似，但這遭到了極大的反彈，負資產負債率又恢復了原樣。

As the old adage goes, you can give, but you can never take.

At the same time, in the 1980s, the government removed interest rate controls, which made it meaningfully cheaper for Australians to use debt to buy homes.

與此同時，在 20 世紀 80 年代，政府取消了利率管制，這使得澳大利亞人舉債買房的成本大大降低。

This made negative gearing even more attractive, and allowed people to leverage debt to execute the strategy.

這使得負資產負債率更具吸引力，人們可以利用債務槓桿來實施這一戰略。

Now, this alone isn't enough to put Australia over the edge.

現在，僅憑這一點還不足以讓澳洲跨過這道坎。

Not only can you leverage negative gearing, but you can also hold real estate investments in your retirement account, known as a super.

您不僅可以利用負資產負債表，還可以在退休賬戶（即超級賬戶）中持有房地產投資。

For those who don't know, a super is similar to an IRA.

對於不瞭解的人來說，超級賬戶類似於個人退休賬戶。

Like an IRA, a super has meaningful tax benefits, and when buying real estate, rental income taxes are reduced to 15% instead of your marginal rate.

與個人退休賬戶一樣，超級賬戶也有顯著的稅收優惠，在購買房地產時，租金所得稅可減至 15%，而不是您的邊際稅率。