The result?

結果呢？

Australian wages declined to levels not seen since June 2011.

澳洲工資降至 2011 年 6 月以來的最低水平。

Even with devastating bushfires, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, wind pulled, there was one thing that affected Australians more than anything else.

即使發生了毀滅性的叢林大火、COVID-19 大流行病和封鎖、大風，但有一件事對澳大利亞人的影響最大。

The cost of living.

生活費用。

Over the last few decades, Australia has experienced one of the greatest housing booms the world has ever seen.

在過去的幾十年裡，澳洲經歷了世界上有史以來最大規模的住房繁榮。

Since 1973, Australian house prices have increased by 36 times across the capital cities and

自 1973 年以來，澳洲各大城市的房價上漲了 36 倍，其中包括

Sydney is now the second most unaffordable place to live in the world.

雪梨現在是世界上第二最負擔不起的居住地。

How and why did we end up here?

我們怎麼會在這裡？

This is the Dark Side of Australia.

這就是澳洲的黑暗面。

Australia is one of the most beautiful places in the entire world.

澳洲是全世界最美麗的地方之一。

Surrounded by oceans filled with world class beaches, cities and parks, the country looks like a paradise.

該國四面環海，擁有世界級的海灘、城市和公園，宛如世外桃源。

But if you want to live here, it's easier said than done.

但如果你想住在這裡，說起來容易做起來難。

To buy the median home in Melbourne, a family needs to earn at least $170,000 per year.

要在墨爾本購買中位數住房，一個家庭的年收入至少需要 17 萬美元。

In Sydney, that number balloons to $260,000 per year.

在雪梨，這一數字膨脹到每年 26 萬美元。

Compare this to the median household income in both cities of $100,000 and it becomes clear that home ownership is far out of reach for most Australians.

與這兩個城市 10 萬澳元的家庭收入中位數相比，大多數澳大利亞人顯然無法擁有自己的住房。

Now some might argue that this is only a Sydney or Melbourne issue, but that's just not the case.

也許有人會說，這只是雪梨或墨爾本的問題，但事實並非如此。

Since 2020, house prices in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have increased by over 50% while wages only grew 12%.

自 2020 年以來，布里斯班、阿德萊德和珀斯的房價上漲了 50%以上，而工資僅增長了 12%。

Home ownership is becoming less and less attainable for many Australians, especially young Australians.

對於許多澳大利亞人，尤其是年輕的澳大利亞人來說，擁有住房的機會越來越少。

Young people have not had the luxury to benefit from skyrocketing home values and are constantly playing catch up.

年輕人沒有享受到房價飛漲帶來的好處，只能不斷追趕。

The result?

結果呢？

Home ownership rates for people under 34 have declined nearly 25%.

34 歲以下人群的住房擁有率下降了近 25%。

The craziest example of Australia's housing crisis was this home in Sydney.

澳洲住房危機最瘋狂的例子莫過於雪梨的這棟住宅。

It was sold without a toilet, without power, and without a kitchen.

出售時沒有廁所，沒有電源，也沒有廚房。

But that didn't stop a bidding war and someone paying $3.5 million.

但這並不能阻止一場競標戰，有人出價 350 萬美元。

But what if you just want to rent?

但如果您只想租房呢？

Surely you can find a decent place to rent.

你肯定能找到一個像樣的地方租住。

Sadly, no.

遺憾的是，沒有。

Australian rents in Sydney exceed $3,000 per month, while Brisbane is not too far behind $2,500.

澳洲雪梨的月租金超過 3000 澳元，而布里斯班也不差 2500 澳元。

Historically, Australian rental rates increased at a reasonable amount per year.

從歷史上看，澳洲的租金每年都有合理的增長。

However, since 2020, annual rental rates have skyrocketed by over 8% per year.

然而，自 2020 年以來，年租金每年飆升 8%以上。

People are caught between a rock and a hard place trying to pay 2024 rental prices with 2011 wages.

用 2011 年的工資來支付 2024 年的租金價格，讓人們左右為難。

And this would all be fine and dandy if people could find a place to live, but the demand for rental units is insatiable.

如果人們能找到住處，這一切都會變得很好，但對出租房的需求卻無法滿足。

Every rental unit application is met with dozens if not hundreds of competing applications.

每一份租房申請都會遇到幾十份甚至上百份競爭申請。

Viewings have lines wrapped around blocks and at the end of the day, renters aren't fighting for anything beyond a place to live, a place to sleep, and a place to call home.

看房的隊伍排成了一條條的長龍，說到底，租房者所爭取的並不只是一個住的地方、一個睡覺的地方和一個可以稱之為家的地方。

The dream of working hard to afford a comfortable life is slowly fading.

努力工作才能過上舒適生活的夢想正在慢慢破滅。

And hardworking, honest Australians are left feeling hopeless.

而勤勞、誠實的澳大利亞人則感到絕望。

All of this begs the question, why is real estate out of control?

綜上所述，我們不禁要問：為什麼房地產會失控？

The first culprit that many point to is immigration.

許多人指出的第一個罪魁禍首是移民。

From 2022 to 2023, Australia welcomed nearly 740,000 people.

從 2022 年到 2023 年，澳洲接待了近 74 萬人。

To put things into perspective, that's more immigrants than any year in modern Australian history and 200,000 more than pre-covid levels.

要知道，這比澳洲現代史上任何一年的移民人數都要多，比科維德時期前的水準還多出 20 萬人。

The impact of this huge spike in immigration is simple, more demand with the same housing supply equals higher prices.

移民人數激增帶來的影響很簡單，在住房供應不變的情況下，需求增加就意味著房價上漲。

Specifically, economists and analysts believe that immigration has primarily impacted rental housing.

具體而言，經濟學家和分析師認為，移民主要影響了出租房。

The bulk of immigrants to Australia are temporary visa holders and 70% of them are renters.

澳洲的大部分移民都是臨時簽證持有者，其中 70% 是租房者。

The impact hits hard in migrant heavy suburbs.

移民密集的郊區受到的影響最大。

For example, Melbourne's southeast or Sydney's inner southwest saw 18% jumps in rents in the last year.

例如，墨爾本東南部或雪梨內西南部的租金在去年躍升了 18%。

In addition, immigrants are often willing to split their unit with more people to stretch their dollar, out-competing locals.

此外，移民往往願意與更多的人合住，以節省開支，從而超過當地人。

This has led to an increased yield on rental rates on real estate that had not been seen in Australia for decades.

這導致房地產租金收益率提高，這是澳洲幾十年來從未有過的。

But what about housing?

但住房問題呢？

The argument that immigrants are a primary contributor to the increase in housing prices is quite weak.

關於移民是房價上漲的主要推手的論點是相當薄弱的。

Australia's migration rate has actually decreased over the last decade and is in line with historical averages.

在過去十年中，澳洲的移民率實際上有所下降，符合歷史平均水平。

However, over the preceding years and decades, there is one big difference.

然而，在過去的幾年和幾十年中，有一個很大的不同。

While immigration has continued to grow with the population, housing starts have declined.

雖然移民人數持續增長，但住房開工率卻有所下降。

The construction industry is facing a catch-22 with the cost of building a new home rising again.

隨著新房建造成本的再次上升，建築業正面臨著一個困境。

In 2023, 170,000 dwellings were completed, the lowest amount in a decade.

2023 年，17 萬套住宅竣工，是十年來的最低水平。

At the same time, Australia saw the biggest spikes in immigration in a generation.

與此同時，澳洲出現了一代人以來最大的移民高峰。

So what gives?

那麼是什麼原因呢？

Since 1966, the number of homes being built relative to the population of Australia has been declining.

自 1966 年以來，相對於澳洲人口而言，住宅建設數量一直在下降。

Specifically, in the year 2000, building rates fell off a cliff, creating a significant supply shortage whose impact can still be felt today.

具體來說，2000 年，建築率斷崖式下跌，造成了嚴重的供應短缺，其影響至今仍可感受到。

One of the main culprits for Australia's decline in housing starts is culture.

澳洲住房開工率下降的罪魁禍首之一是文化。

Australia is a very suburban environment where communities and citizens have opted for urban sprawl over densification.

澳洲是一個郊區化非常嚴重的國家，那裡的社區和市民都選擇了城市無序擴張，而不是密集化。

For example, Sydney and Melbourne have about 2,000 people per square kilometer.

例如，雪梨和墨爾本每平方公里約有 2000 人。

Compare this to 6,000 in London, 4,400 in Munich, and 3,600 in Amsterdam.

相比之下，倫敦為 6000 人，慕尼黑為 4400 人，阿姆斯特丹為 3600 人。

It is a shocking difference.

這種差異令人震驚。

When compared to other major western cities, Australian cities are some of the least densely populated in the world.

與其他西方大城市相比，澳洲城市是世界上人口密度最低的城市之一。

Many Australians believe that a suburban environment is ideal for raising families and safe communities.

許多澳大利亞人認為，郊區環境是養家餬口和安全社區的理想選擇。

Thankfully, Australia has a ton of land that is mostly unpopulated.

值得慶幸的是，澳洲有大量的土地，大部分都沒有人煙。

Theoretically, they can continue to build outward and maintain sprawl.

理論上，他們可以繼續向外建設，保持無序擴張。

Sydney alone could add 280,000 homes in its greenfield growth areas.

僅雪梨的綠地增長區就可增加 28 萬套住房。

But sadly, this would work in theory, but Australia has a major NIMBY problem.

但遺憾的是，這在理論上是可行的，但澳洲存在嚴重的 "NIMBY "問題。

Even though Australia is going through an extreme housing crisis, March 2024 saw the lowest number of detached home approvals since 2012.

儘管澳洲正在經歷一場嚴重的住房危機，但 2024 年 3 月的獨立住宅審批數量仍創下了 2012 年以來的新低。

These aren't high rise condos, these are detached, single family, suburban homes.

這些不是高層公寓，而是獨立的郊區獨戶住宅。

Strong community advocacy and government red tape lead to extremely long approval times for housing developments.

社區的大力倡導和政府的繁文縟節導致住房開發的審批時間極長。

For example, to receive an approval for a single home development in New South Wales, it takes 111 days on average.

例如，在新南威爾士州，單個住宅開發項目獲得準許平均需要 111 天。

In Liverpool, that jumps to 288 days.

在利物浦，這一數字躍升至 288 天。

Compare this to Texas where it generally takes less than a week.

相比之下，德克薩斯州一般只需要不到一週的時間。

These long wait times have made it impossible for the government to achieve home building targets.

這些漫長的等待時間使得政府無法實現建房目標。

Specifically, Australia is on track to build 40% less homes than needed to meet the government's affordable housing targets.

具體而言，澳洲的住房建造量將比實現政府經濟適用房目標所需的數量少 40%。

The low rate of approvals for housing has created an artificial land scarcity, which in turn has driven up the price of land.

住房審批率低造成了人為的土地稀缺，進而推高了土地價格。

Since 2020, home values have risen at three times the rate of apartments.

自 2020 年以來，住宅價值的漲幅是公寓的三倍。

With land becoming such a scarce resource, it further challenges developments, as it becomes increasingly expensive to acquire and develop land economically.

隨著土地日益成為稀缺資源，獲取和經濟開發土地的成本也越來越高，這給開發帶來了更多挑戰。

But this is almost entirely by design, as scarce land benefits homeowners.

但這幾乎完全是設計好的，因為稀缺的土地有利於房主。

This has had a tremendous impact on young people in particular.

這尤其對年輕人產生了巨大影響。

Remember, home ownership rates for young people have dropped by 25%, compared to only 8% for the general population.

請記住，年輕人的住房擁有率下降了 25%，而普通人的住房擁有率僅為 8%。

Ok, we can all agree that immigration and low development rates are worsening Australia's housing crisis, but there is another critical factor at play.

好吧，我們都同意移民和低開發率加劇了澳洲的住房危機，但還有另一個關鍵因素在起作用。

Tax incentives.

稅收優惠。

During the 1930s, Australia had a major housing shortage, and wanted to encourage investment in rental properties.

20 世紀 30 年代，澳洲住房嚴重短缺，希望鼓勵投資出租房。

To encourage this, the country introduced negative gearing.

為了鼓勵這種做法，該國引入了負資產負債率。

Negative gearing allows an investor to offset the losses on a rental property against their personal income.

負資產負債表允許投資者用個人收入抵消出租物業的損失。

For example, if you make $100,000 per year and lost $10,000 on your rental property, you can deduct the $10,000 off your personal income tax.

例如，如果您的年收入為 100,000 美元，而您的出租房產損失了 10,000 美元，那麼您可以從個人所得稅中扣除這 10,000 美元。

This idea is pretty novel.

這個想法非常新穎。

In fact, out of the entire OECD, only New Zealand and Japan have these policies.

事實上，在整個經合組織中，只有紐西蘭和日本有這些政策。

During the 1980s, the government tried to change negative gearing rules, imposing restrictions on deductions that can be claimed, similar to the United Kingdom, but this was met with significant backlash and negative gearing was returned to its original form.

20 世紀 80 年代，政府曾試圖改變負資產負債率規則，對可申請的扣除額施加限制，這與英國的做法類似，但這遭到了極大的反彈，負資產負債率又恢復了原樣。

As the old adage goes, you can give, but you can never take.

俗話說得好，有舍才有得。

At the same time, in the 1980s, the government removed interest rate controls, which made it meaningfully cheaper for Australians to use debt to buy homes.

與此同時，在 20 世紀 80 年代，政府取消了利率管制，這使得澳大利亞人舉債買房的成本大大降低。

This made negative gearing even more attractive, and allowed people to leverage debt to execute the strategy.

這使得負資產負債率更具吸引力，人們可以利用債務槓桿來實施這一戰略。

Now, this alone isn't enough to put Australia over the edge.

現在，僅憑這一點還不足以讓澳洲跨過這道坎。

Not only can you leverage negative gearing, but you can also hold real estate investments in your retirement account, known as a super.

您不僅可以利用負資產負債表，還可以在退休賬戶（即超級賬戶）中持有房地產投資。

For those who don't know, a super is similar to an IRA.

對於不瞭解的人來說，超級賬戶類似於個人退休賬戶。

Like an IRA, a super has meaningful tax benefits, and when buying real estate, rental income taxes are reduced to 15% instead of your marginal rate.

與個人退休賬戶一樣，超級賬戶也有顯著的稅收優惠，在購買房地產時，租金所得稅可減至 15%，而不是您的邊際稅率。

Unlike the US, where buying real estate through an IRA is a huge pain and costly, in Australia, it's extremely easy and often encouraged.

在美國，通過個人退休賬戶購買房地產是一件非常麻煩的事情，而且成本很高，而在澳洲，這非常容易，而且經常受到鼓勵。

But that isn't all, there's more.

但這還不是全部，還有更多。

In 1999, the Australian government reduced capital gains on real estate sales by 50%, and if you are holding your property in a super, you're effectively only paying a 10% tax.

1999 年，澳大利亞政府將房地產銷售的資本收益降低了 50%，如果您以超級賬戶持有房產，實際上只需繳納 10%的稅款。

There is almost no country on earth that has such a favorable tax regime for property investors.

世界上幾乎沒有一個國家為房地產投資者提供如此優惠的稅收制度。

Australia is truly exceptional.

澳洲確實與眾不同。

This tax regime has been criticized heavily.

這種稅收制度飽受責備。

The argument against it is that it materially benefits landowners and older Australians, and frankly, the argument is quite sound.

反對的理由是，這對土地所有者和年長的澳大利亞人有實質性的好處，坦率地說，這個理由很有道理。

These tax policies have encouraged speculation in real estate, and are costing taxpayers nearly 8 billion dollars per year.

這些稅收政策鼓勵了房地產投機，每年使納稅人損失近 80 億美元。

Some might argue that this is overblown, but when 50-80% of all investment properties are negatively geared, there is a problem.

有些人可能會說這是誇大其詞，但如果所有投資性房產中有 50-80% 都是負資產，那就有問題了。

A system that encourages speculation on income losing properties is highly flawed and very unique.

一個鼓勵對失去收入的房產進行投機的制度是非常有缺陷的，也是非常獨特的。

But this has created another challenge.

但這也帶來了另一個挑戰。

Australia has made it so good to invest in non-productive assets like real estate, that no one bothers to invest in anything else.

澳洲讓投資房地產等非生產性資產變得如此容易，以至於沒有人願意投資其他東西。

Australia's productivity growth has been slowing over the last few decades.

過去幾十年來，澳洲的生產率增長一直在放緩。

The average annual labour productivity growth between 2010 and 2020 was only 1.1%, significantly lower than previous decades.

2010 年至 2020 年期間，年均勞動生產率增長率僅為 1.1%，大大低於前幾十年的水準。

A lot of this is due to the lack of innovation and growth in non-service and non-mining sectors in Australia.

這在很大程度上是由於澳洲的非服務業和非採礦業缺乏創新和增長。

The best way to put in perspective how little Australia innovates is to look at its R&D spend as a percentage of GDP.

要了解澳洲的創新能力有多弱，最好的辦法就是看其研發支出佔國內生產總值的百分比。

In 2022, Australia spent 1.7% of GDP on R&D.

2022 年，澳洲的研發支出佔國內生產總值的 1.7%。

When compared to other major nations, that is terrible.

與其他主要國家相比，這實在是太糟糕了。

The OECD average is 2.4%, and major countries like the US, Germany, and the United Kingdom are all far better than Australia.

經合組織的平均水平為 2.4%，而美國、德國和英國等主要國家的情況都遠遠好於澳洲。

As a result, nominal GDP per capita and real GDP per capita have not increased over the last 10 years.

是以，在過去十年中，名義人均國內生產總值和實際人均國內生產總值都沒有增長。

Business and job prospects are eroding while cost of living continues to rise.

商業和就業前景受到侵蝕，而生活成本卻持續上升。

The loser?

失敗者？

Hardworking Australians.

勤勞的澳大利亞人

Even when you compare business and income tax, it's clear that Australia is deciding that land ownership is the most important investment activity.

即使將營業稅和所得稅相比較，澳洲顯然也認定土地所有權是最重要的投資活動。

Average income taxes charged in Australia are higher than all but three OECD countries, and corporate taxes are no different.

除三個經合組織國家外，澳洲的平均所得稅都高於其他所有國家，公司稅也不例外。

Australia's corporate tax rate is 6.3% higher than the OECD average, and when comparing

澳洲的企業稅率比經合組織的平均水平高出 6.3%。

Australia's small business tax to even Canada's, Australia's is 2.5 times higher.

澳洲的小企業稅甚至是加拿大的2.5倍。

Currently, Australia collects a disproportionate amount of government revenue from income taxes and corporate taxes, and a disproportionately low amount from real estate.

目前，澳洲從所得稅和公司稅中獲得的政府收入比例過高，而從房地產中獲得的收入比例過低。

As Charlie Munger famously said, show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome.

查理-芒格（Charlie Munger）有一句名言：給我看激勵機制，我就給你看結果。

There you have it.

就是這樣。

A government that has incentivized speculation on housing while disincentivizing working hard and building productive businesses.

政府鼓勵住房投機，卻不鼓勵努力工作和建立生產性企業。

The incentive?

激勵？

To hoard land.

囤積土地。

The outcome?

結果呢？

A terribly unfair economic system.

一個極不公平的經濟體系。

I can already imagine the comments on this video, blaming political parties for the issues at hand.

我已經能想象到關於這段視頻的評論，將當前的問題歸咎於政黨。

And that might be easy to blame any single government for the housing crisis in Australia, but in reality, this problem has persisted for decades.

將澳洲的住房危機歸咎於任何一屆政府都不為過，但實際上，這個問題已經持續了幾十年。

The Labour party of Paul Keating saw a modest rise in housing prices, while concurrently seeing a rapid modernization and growth of the overall Australian economy.

在保羅-基廷上司的工黨執政時期，房價略有上漲，與此同時，澳洲整體經濟也實現了快速現代化和增長。

Overall, his tenure was mostly balanced.

總體而言，他的任期基本平衡。

But then John Howard came in and saw the greatest rise in housing prices in modern Australian history.

但約翰-霍華德上臺後，房價出現了澳洲現代史上最大幅度的上漲。

Under his tenure, housing more than doubled.

在他的任期內，住房面積增加了一倍多。

Then, the Labour party got three chances, but housing continued to grow, only slowing down because of the financial crisis.

隨後，工黨獲得了三次機會，但住房仍在繼續增長，只是由於金融危機才有所放緩。

Following this was the coalition government, Tony Abbott, strike, Malcolm Turnbull, strike,

隨後是聯合政府、託尼-阿博特（Tony Abbott）、罷工、馬爾科姆-特恩布爾（Malcolm Turnbull）、罷工、

Scott Morrison, strike, and housing still out of control.

斯科特-莫里森，罷工，住房仍然失控。

Now with Anthony Albanese at the helm, we finish the decade with a massive increase in housing prices.

現在，在安東尼-阿爾巴內斯的掌舵下，我們以房價的大幅上漲結束了這十年。

If you bought a home in 1992 for half a million dollars, today it would be worth 2.4 million dollars.

如果您在 1992 年花 50 萬美元買了一棟房子，那麼今天這棟房子就值 240 萬美元。

If you were born after 1992, you probably don't own a home and might never.

如果您是 1992 年以後出生的，您可能還沒有自己的住房，而且可能永遠也不會有。

The conclusion is simple.

結論很簡單。

This is beyond political parties.

這已經超越了政黨的範疇。

Australia's housing crisis runs deep.

澳洲的住房危機根深蒂固。

It is something that cannot be solved by jumping from one bandwagon to the next.

這不是從一個浪潮跳到另一個浪潮就能解決的問題。

What will it require?

需要什麼？

Incentivizing business investment.

激勵企業投資。

Lowering income taxes for hardworking Australians.

降低辛勤工作的澳大利亞人的所得稅。

Abolishing negative gearing.

廢除負資產負債表。

Lowering capital gains incentives.

降低資本收益獎勵。

Using red tape to encourage developments.

利用繁文縟節鼓勵發展。

And educated Australians who can keep politicians honest.

還有受過教育的澳大利亞人，他們能讓政客們保持誠實。

You are the solution, and your tool is policy.

你就是解決方案，你的工具就是政策。

Good luck.

祝你好運

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