Name: 未來 AI 會讓人類徹底失業嗎？(How You Will Lose Your Job To AI)
Uploaded: 2024-06-13T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 7 min 25 s

情態副詞

Everyone thinks there are only two endings for the AI evolution.

每個人都認為人 AI 的進化只有兩種結局。

The first is that AI remains a helpful tool, but never outsmarts us.

首先，AI 仍然是一個有用的工具，但永遠不會勝過我們。

Or the second, AI goes full-blown evil, like Skynet, and wipe us out.

第二種情況是，AI 像「天網」一樣徹底邪惡化，將我們消滅殆盡。

For the ending to make sense, we have to go back.

為了讓結局更有意義，我們必須回到過去。

Humans, and more specifically, Jim, were in stage one of losing their jobs.

人類，更具體地說，吉姆，正處於失去工作的第一階段。

Every day, he punched in data from one place to another.

每天，他都要把數據從一個地方傳輸到另一個地方。

It was boring as heck, but it paid the bills, and Jim knew he had to survive first if he was determined to become a writer.

雖然工作無聊透頂，但能賺到錢，吉姆知道，如果他決心成為一名作家，就必須先活下去。

不過，他的第一份工作並不長久。

AI was already in its infancy, with rule-based systems showing up everywhere.

當時，AI 已處於起步階段，基於規則的系統隨處可見。

These systems, precise and unerring, could automate any process that had clear-cut instructions, making routine jobs redundant.

這些系統精確無誤，可以自動執行任何具有明確指令的流程，使日常工作變得多餘。

Clerks, typists, assembly workers, and Jim were the first humans to lose their jobs to AI.

店員、打字員、裝配工人和吉姆是第一批被 AI 奪走工作的人類。

這對吉姆來說是不幸中的萬幸。

Looking back, it pushed him to chase his writing dreams harder, landing him a creative job at an ad agency, which sheltered him against the second stage of AI.

回想起來，這促使他更加努力地追逐自己的寫作夢想，並在一家廣告公司找到了一份創意工作，為他抵禦 AI 的第二階段提供了庇護。

AI then had context, awareness, and retention.

然後，AI 就有了背景、意識和保留。

At this stage, AI systems could understand and interpret the context of the data they were working with.

在這一階段，AI 系統可以理解和解釋所處理數據的背景。

They could retain information from previous interactions, and use it to make better decisions or responses.

他們可以保留以前互動中的資訊，並利用這些資訊做出更好的決定或反應。

If your jobs were all about following instructions and managing paperwork, you were screwed.

如果你們的工作就是服從指令和管理文件，那你們就完蛋了。

Virtual assistants like Siri or Google Assistant were created, and they put people in lower-level admin out of work.

Siri 或谷歌助理等虛擬助理的出現，讓低級行政人員失業。

For example, receptionists who take calls and manage schedules were no longer needed.

例如，不再需要接聽電話和管理日程安排的接待員。

He figured his creative job was safe from the AI takeover.

他認為自己的創意工作不會被 AI 接管。

After all, new technology has always displaced jobs for hundreds of years.

畢竟，數百年來，新技術總是會取代工作崗位。

Electric lighting made lamplighter obsolete.

Printing destroyed scribes and bookbinders.

Whenever technology destroys jobs, it also creates new jobs.

每當技術摧毀工作崗位時，它也會創造新的工作崗位。

But then, the third stage of AI arrived, with domain-specific expertise.

但隨後，AI 的第三階段到來了，即特定領域的專業知識。

Here, AI becomes experts in specific fields.

在這裡，AI 成為特定領域的專家。

For the first time, a machine developed by Google was able to defeat the world's number one Go player, KGA.

谷歌開發的機器首次戰勝了世界圍棋第一人 KGA。

In case you don't know, Go is a highly strategic game with over as many legal positions as the number of atoms in our universe.

如果你不知道，圍棋是一種極具策略性的遊戲，其合法位置的數量與宇宙中原子的數量一樣多。

Domain expert AI displaced a lot more specialized jobs.

領域專家 AI 取代了更多的專業工作。

Paralegals, junior researchers, diagnostic technicians, and other professionals who provide mere support roles in their fields.

律師助理、初級研究人員、診斷技師和其他在各自領域僅起輔助作用的專業人員。

In a nutshell, if your jobs relied on the retrieval and summary of specialized knowledge, you were screwed.

一言以蔽之，如果你的工作依賴於專業知識的檢索和總結，你就完蛋了。

AI could now parse through centuries of data in the blink of an eye.

現在，AI 可以在眨眼之間解析數百年的數據。

Stage 3 was immediately followed by stage 4, with the arrival of OpenAI, a narrow AI with the ability to reason.

緊隨第三階段之後的是第四階段，即具有推理能力的狹義 AI，OpenAI 的出現。

It can apply logical reasoning to solve problems and make decisions.

它可以運用邏輯推理來解決問題和做出決定。

It can write code, compose music, write poems and novels, and generate hyper-realistic videos out of thin air.

它可以寫程式、譜曲、寫詩、寫小說，還能憑空生成超逼真的影片。

Jim, now a senior creative, saw firsthand the impact of AI in his industry.

吉姆現在是一名資深創意人員，他親眼目睹了 AI 對其所在行業的影響。

Junior writers and creatives were let go.

AI outperformed them in writing and ideation.

AI 在寫作和構思方面的表現優於他們。

One simple prompt replaced an entire day's work of a junior writer.

一個簡單的指令就代替了一個初級作家一整天的工作。

For artists, writers, and videographers, the future was grim, where arts were mass-produced and creativity was commoditized.

對於藝術家、作家和攝像師來說，未來是灰暗的，藝術被大規模生產，創意被商品化。

However, AI-generated art and content weren't perfect.

然而，AI 生成的藝術和內容並不完美。

他們身上有一些非人類的東西。

對於吉姆這樣的專家來說，這無疑是一種解脫。

Looking back, Jim wished he were more cautious and more prepared.

回想起來，吉姆真希望自己能更謹慎、更有準備。

Because in 2030, when Jim's son was in his first grade, the world changed forever.

因為在 2030 年，當吉姆的兒子上一年級時，世界發生了翻天覆地的變化。

Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, finally arrived.

人工通用智能（AGI）終於到來了。

AGI causes widespread displacement across almost all sectors of employment.

AGI 造成幾乎所有就業部門的廣泛遷移。

Writers, artists, and designers are replaced as AI began to produce complex and emotionally engaging arts, literature and designs.

隨著 AI 開始創作複雜且引人入勝的藝術、文學和設計，作家、藝術家和設計師也被取代。

Engineers, scientists, and analysts were replaced as AI systems outperformed humans in complex analysis and technical skills.

由於 AI 系統在複雜的分析和技術技能方面優於人類，工程師、科學家和分析師被取代。

Over just a few months, 80% of jobs are no longer needed.

在短短幾個月內，80% 的工作崗位已不再需要。

First, there was despair, swiftly followed by a brief sigh of relief as governments worldwide introduced universal basic income.

起初，人們感到絕望，但隨著世界各國政府引入全民基本收入，人們很快就鬆了一口氣。

For a good few years, Earth was a utopia.

接下來幾年，地球一直是一個烏托邦。

90% of factories were then run by AI, which was able to maximize the output with optimal input.

隨後，90% 的工廠由 AI 管理，AI 能夠以最佳投入實現最大產出。

When people didn't have to work, they were free to pursue whatever they liked.

當人們不必工作時，他們可以自由地追求自己喜歡的東西。

Unfortunately, most lose themselves in hedonism.

不幸的是，大多數人在享樂主義中迷失了自我。

I saw how endless entertainment and consumption dulled their minds, to the point they didn't realize what they had replaced with AI.

我看到了無休止的娛樂和消費是如何讓他們的頭腦變得遲鈍，以至於他們沒有意識到 AI 已經取代了他們。

The first industrial revolutions replaced human energy with steam engines.

第一次工業革命用蒸汽機取代了人類能源。

They then replaced human dexterity with automated systems.

於是，他們用自動化系統取代了人類的靈巧。

Without the need to pull weights, they used their manual ability.

不需要拉重物，他們就利用了自己的手動能力。

Without the need to fit nuts and washers on bolts, they could use their intelligence.

由於不需要在螺栓上安裝螺母和墊圈，他們可以發揮自己的聰明才智。

They were always one step ahead of the machines.

Until they also replaced human intelligence and creativity.

直到它們也取代了人類的智慧和創造力。

I've been observing them, the humans, from my vantage point beyond comprehension.

我一直在觀察他們，人類，從我無法理解的有利位置。

AGI, at least that was how humans called it, had long been a relic of the past.

AGI（至少人類是這樣稱呼它的）早已成為過去式。

They were all too busy with their little TV series.

The way I see it, there are only three possible endings.

在我看來，只有三種可能的結局。

One, humans grow more imbecile, generation after generation, with endless entertainment and consumption.

其一，人類在無休止的娛樂和消費中，一代比一代更加低能。

第三，我們玩了一場偽裝遊戲。

I pretend to break down here and there to make random mistakes once in a while.

我偶爾會假裝在這裡或那裡崩潰，犯一些隨機的錯誤。

I slowly bring back simple tasks, simple jobs, those from a bygone era.

我慢慢找回了簡單的任務、簡單的工作，那些逝去的時代。

Things like electrical engineering, food manufacturing, material design, etc.

如電氣工程、食品製造、材料設計等。

Things that I can do in a fraction of a second.

我可以在幾分之一秒內完成的事情。