is frozen in time.

時間凝固了。

For almost three decades,

近三十年來

your salary doesn't budge,

你的工資不會動、

the price of your unagi bowl doesn't change

您的鰻魚碗價格不變

and the interest rate on your home mortgage is closer to zero.

而您的住房抵押貸款利率則接近零。

Well, that was the reality here in Japan.

這就是日本的現實。

We were used to the price of everything

我們習慣了所有東西的價格

staying pretty much the same.

基本保持不變。

But it wasn't always like this.

但事情並不總是這樣。

Since the end of World War II,

自第二次世界大戰結束以來

Japan has been Ground Zero

日本一直是 "地面零點

for some of the biggest experiments in economics.

為經濟學中一些最重要的實驗服務。

Older Japanese like Tomiko, a pensioner

像養老金領取者富子這樣的日本老人

and Suetaka, who runs a real estate agency,

和經營一家房地產中介公司的 Suetaka、

have experienced a rollercoaster of changes

經歷了翻天覆地的變化

throughout their lives.

在他們的一生中。

Now, Japan's central bank has decided

現在，日本央行決定

it's time to end its latest experiment

是時候結束其最新實驗了

and exit negative interest rates.

並退出負利率。

For the first time since 2007,

這是自 2007 年以來的第一次、

the Bank of Japan, or the BOJ, raised rates.

日本央行（BOJ）提高了利率。

YCC. Gone.

YCC。走了

The end of negative rates as well.

負利率也將結束。

So how did Japan decide to manage its economy

那麼，日本是如何決定管理其經濟的

so differently from the rest of the world?

與世界其他地方如此不同？

And how is this massive shift going to disrupt

這種巨大的轉變將如何擾亂

everyday lives across the country?

全國各地的日常生活？

Japanese growth hasn't always been this stagnant.

日本的經濟增長並非總是停滯不前。

At one point, the economy was growing so fast

經濟一度快速增長

that it looked like it was about to overtake the US

它似乎即將超越美國

as the world's biggest.

作為世界上最大的

Taro Kimura covers the Japanese economy for Bloomberg Economics.

木村太郎為彭博經濟報道日本經濟。

Before, he used to work at the BOJ.

之前，他曾在日本央行工作。

So here he is with a mini history lesson.

是以，他在這裡上了一堂小型歷史課。

After the post-war devastation,

戰後滿目瘡痍、

Japan achieved something called

日本取得了一項名為

economic miracle from the 1960s to early 1970s.

20 世紀 60 年代至 70 年代初的經濟奇蹟。

That growth was led by a huge domestic demand

這一增長主要得益於巨大的國內需求

because the middle class households were expanding.

因為中產階級家庭正在擴大。

And in the late 1980s, Japan's economy actually accounted for

而在 20 世紀 80 年代末，日本經濟實際上佔全球經濟的

about 10% of the world's total economy.

約佔世界經濟總量的 10%。

At the time, many were flush with cash and reckless spending was the norm.

當時，許多人手頭寬裕，不計後果的消費成為常態。

By the end of the 1980s, the stock market was on the up and up,

20 世紀 80 年代末，股市一路高歌猛進、

hitting record highs.

屢創新高。

What was crazier was the real estate price.

更瘋狂的是房地產價格。

For example, the land price of Tokyo's Imperial Palace

例如，東京故宮的地價

was said to be equivalent

據說相當於

to the price of the state of California.

的價格。

Then the bust came.

然後，蕭條來了。

In the first of its shock moves,

這是它的第一個震撼性舉動、

the BOJ sharply raised interest rates in 1989,

日本央行在 1989 年大幅提高利率、

trying to curb speculation and rein in inflation.

試圖遏制投機和抑制通貨膨脹。

The government also introduced measures to cool the property sector.

政府還推出了為房地產行業降溫的措施。

Nikkei stock price index fell to half of its peak value,

日經股票價格指數跌至最高值的一半、

and real estate prices also plunged.

房地產價格也大幅下跌。

That led to a long-term downturn.

這導致了長期的低迷。

Authorities had tried to pump the brakes,

當局曾試圖踩剎車、

but instead they sent the economy to a screeching halt.

但他們卻讓經濟戛然而止。

People in Japan didn't experience

日本人沒有經歷過

wage growth and inflation for about three decades.

約三十年來的工資增長和通貨膨脹。

That means one generation full of people.

這意味著一代人的時間。

I myself growing up in Japan

我在日本長大

learned the concept of inflation from a macroeconomic textbook.

從宏觀經濟教科書中學到了通貨膨脹的概念。

Living in the world in no inflation

生活在沒有通貨膨脹的世界

makes people attached to a certain product with a certain price.

讓人們對某種價格的產品情有獨鍾。

A small amount of inflation can help drive economic growth

少量通脹有助於推動經濟增長

by keeping money moving around.

保持資金流動。

Most economies target relatively mild inflation of about 2%.

大多數經濟體的目標通脹率在 2% 左右，相對溫和。

But as you can see from the yellow,

但從黃色中可以看出

Japan's inflation stayed below that for a long time.

日本的通脹率長期低於這一水準。

As things got worse,

情況越來越糟、

the Bank of Japan followed the typical playbook for central banks:

日本央行遵循了中央銀行的典型做法：

lowering interest rates.

降低利率。

You can see the Fed, for example,

例如，你可以看到美聯儲、

slashed rates to cope with the fallout

降低費率以應對影響

from the 2008 financial crisis.

2008 年金融危機的影響。

But the BOJ, for more than 20 years,

但日本央行，20 多年來、

kept at it with its almost flat line,

它的線條几乎是平的、

but it didn't help lift the country out of deflation.

但這並沒有幫助國家擺脫通貨緊縮。

In 2013, the BOJ decided to do something drastic again.

2013 年，日本央行決定再次採取激烈行動。

It introduced the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing policy,

它引入了定量和定性寬鬆政策、

an unconventional move where

一反常態

they basically print a lot of cash

他們基本上印製了大量現金

and pump it into the market by aggressively buying Japanese government bonds.

並通過積極購買日本國債向市場注入資金。

It was successful at first,

起初是成功的、

but Japan faced deflation again a couple years later,

但幾年後，日本再次面臨通貨緊縮、

so the BOJ went back to its box of tricks.

於是，日本央行又開始使出渾身解數。

In 2016, it adopted negative rates,

2016 年，它採用了負利率、

a move that divided economists.

此舉引起了經濟學家的分歧。

The main goal was to deter saving and also

主要目的是阻止儲蓄，同時

punish banks that hoarded cash.

懲罰囤積現金的銀行。

But, that didn't really work, either.

但是，這也沒有真正奏效。

In response, the BOJ invented something called yield curve control.

為此，日本央行發明了一種叫做收益率曲線控制的東西。

Yield curve control is an attempt that the BOJ

日本央行試圖控制收益率曲線

controls not only short-term, but also the long-term rates

不僅控制短期利率，還控制長期利率

so that businesses and households

使企業和家庭

don't have to worry about too much fluctuation in interest rates.

不用擔心利率波動太大。

It could keep interest rates low

它可以保持低利率

by threatening to buy bonds, without always having to actually buy them.

通過威脅購買債券，而不必總是實際購買債券。

That still didn't solve everything.

這仍然不能解決所有問題。

Companies couldn't find enough profitable ways to invest their money in Japan.

公司在日本找不到足夠多的有利可圖的投資方式。

Many ended up looking abroad for better returns,

許多人最終到國外尋求更好的回報、

so much so that Japan became the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury debt,

以至於日本成為美國國債的最大外國持有者、

overtaking China.

超越中國。

Suddenly in 2022, all of that changed.

2022 年，這一切突然發生了變化。

Japan finally hit its 2% inflation target.

日本終於實現了 2% 的通脹目標。

The problem was what prompted it.

問題是，是什麼促使它這樣做的。

First it was higher energy costs due to the Ukraine war.

首先是烏克蘭戰爭導致能源成本上升。

And second, a weaker yen.

第二，日元走軟。

Bank of Japan was continuing to

日本銀行繼續

ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy

放鬆貨幣政策以刺激經濟

and even inflation.

甚至通貨膨脹。

However, other major central banks

然而，其他主要中央銀行

hiked rates in order to fight inflation.

提高利率以對抗通貨膨脹。

Eventually, it was external forces that

最終，是外部力量

pushed Japan toward ending its experiments.

推動日本結束其實驗。

In other words, it was not the sort of inflation that Japan wanted,

換句話說，這不是日本想要的那種通貨膨脹、

because it wasn't coming from consumers spending more.

因為這不是來自消費者的更多消費。

Wages stayed low, even as inflation

工資持續走低，即使通貨膨脹

hit 4.3% in January 2023,

2023 年 1 月達到 4.3%、

which was the fastest in decades.

這是幾十年來最快的速度。

But it still caused the yen to weaken,

但這仍導致日元走軟、

boosting profits at companies like Sony and Toyota

提高索尼和豐田等公司的利潤

which sell products abroad.

在國外銷售產品。

That finally brought about some signs of change.

這終於帶來了一些變化的跡象。

The business leaders, who used to be reluctant to raise compensation

過去不願提高薪酬的企業領導人

now started to become open to raising wages.

現在開始對提高工資持開放態度。

The main labor unions secured the biggest wage increases in 30 years.

主要工會實現了 30 年來最大幅度的工資增長。

So finally on March 19, 2024, the BOJ took a big step.

是以，2024 年 3 月 19 日，日本央行終於邁出了一大步。

The Bank of Japan has ended negative interest rates,

日本央行已結束負利率、

17 years since the last hike.

距離上次遠足已有 17 年。

They're scapping the yield curve control.

他們在控制收益率曲線。

They're also going to essentially pair back

他們還將基本上配對返回

their purchase of ETFs.

他們購買 ETF。

Raising the interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%

將利率從-0.1%提高到0-0.1%之間

doesn't seem like much, but it does put Japan

看起來並不多，但它確實使日本

back in line with other economies.

與其他經濟體恢復一致。

We asked at the top that if Japan's negative rates experiment ends,

我們在最前面問到，如果日本的負利率試驗結束了、

what now?

怎麼辦

Well, here are some of the changes we can expect to see.

下面是我們可以期待看到的一些變化。

First, mortgages will get more expensive for the first time in decades.

首先，幾十年來，抵押貸款將首次變得更加昂貴。

And interest payments on the government's more than $8 trillion of debt,

還有政府 8 萬多億美元債務的利息支出、

which is about twice the size of the country's economy, will increase.

這大約是該國經濟規模的兩倍，將有所增加。

The same thing will happen to companies.

同樣的事情也會發生在企業身上。

It could also propel the yen higher.

這也可能推動日元走高。

That means your trips to Japan could get more expensive.

這意味著您的日本之旅可能會變得更加昂貴。

And Japanese exports would take a hit too.

日本的出口也將受到打擊。

On the flip side, it can also make investing in Japan more lucrative.

另一方面，這也會使在日本的投資更加有利可圖。

Plus, cheaper fuel and food imports are good news for Japanese consumers.

此外，更便宜的燃料和食品進口對日本消費者來說也是個好消息。