See these peaks?

看到這些山峰了嗎？

They coincide with periods of economic weakness.

它們與經濟疲軟時期相吻合。

Recessions.

經濟衰退。

The economy has slowed down.

經濟放緩。

Low interest rates.

低利率。

We decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1 4th percent.

我們決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間保持在 0-1.4% 之間。

And falling stock markets.

股市下跌

The Dow just had its biggest point drop in history, falling 1,190 points.

道指剛剛創下歷史最大跌幅，下跌 1190 點。

But take a look at what's happening right now.

但看看現在的情況吧。

Gold just hit a historic high.

黃金剛剛創下歷史新高。

But by most measures in the U.S., the economy is doing pretty well.

但從大多數方面來看，美國的經濟狀況還算不錯。

People say gold's this crazy, what's this move?

人們說黃金太瘋狂了，這是什麼舉動？

People have called it curious, they've called it stealth, they've called it mysterious.

人們稱其為好奇，稱其為隱祕，稱其為神祕。

Here's what's driving this mysterious rally and why new investors are taking the dive into gold.

以下是這一神祕漲勢的驅動因素，以及新投資者紛紛涉足黃金的原因。

Two of the main ways to invest in gold are ETFs, essentially buying shares of gold, and physical gold itself.

投資黃金的兩種主要方式是 ETF（即購買黃金股票）和實物黃金本身。

In the past, investments have been split between the two.

在過去，投資是由這兩個機構分擔的。

ETFs are typically more accessible to the average person.

普通人通常更容易獲得 ETF。

You can just buy them and sell them just like a share of a stock.

你可以像買股票一樣買進賣出。

Unlike a gold bar, you don't have to store it.

與金條不同的是，您不必儲存它。

And then when you wanna sell it again, it's just a click of a button.

當你想再次出售時，只需點擊一下按鈕。

But now they're being sold off and physical gold is riding high as investors scoop up bars, coins, and jewelry.

但現在它們被拋售，實物黃金因投資者搶購金條、金幣和珠寶而一路走高。

This rising interest in physical gold started with central banks piling up on gold bars.

對實物黃金興趣的上升始於各國央行對金條的囤積。

They're taking dollars and selling dollars and buying physical gold and storing it because you can't get to my vault.

他們拿美元賣美元，買實物黃金儲存起來，因為你無法進入我的金庫。

Exactly.

沒錯。

Their buying nearly doubled after the start of the Ukraine-Russia war as a way to diversify their assets.

烏克蘭-俄羅斯戰爭爆發後，他們的購買量幾乎翻了一番，以此來分散資產。

The US and some of its allies froze Russian assets, and that's got some countries worried.

美國及其一些盟國凍結了俄羅斯的資產，這讓一些國家憂心忡忡。

Countries like China, Turkey, they don't wanna see their central bank assets get frozen.

像中國、土耳其這樣的國家，他們不想看到自己的央行資產被凍結。

Some of these countries, China, for example, hold large amounts of dollar-based assets like US treasuries that the Fed would be able to freeze.

其中一些國家，例如中國，持有大量美元資產，如美國國債，美聯儲可以凍結這些資產。

But gold isn't reliant on the US or any other country in the same way.

但黃金對美國或其他國家的依賴程度並不相同。

If you took all the gold that was ever mined, you could fit it into a building that's about seven stories high and about 5,000 square feet.

如果把開採出的所有黃金都裝進一棟約七層樓高、約 5000 平方英尺的建築裡。

That's it.

就是這樣。

There's no CEO of gold.

沒有黃金首席執行官。

Nobody can manipulate it.

沒有人可以操縱它。

It has its value just due to its own properties, due to its own rarity.

它的價值在於其自身的特性，在於其稀有性。

And as central banks ramped up their buying, so did individual investors, especially in countries like China.

隨著各國央行加大買入力度，個人投資者也開始買入，尤其是在中國等國家。

More retail investors bought gold there than in any other country over the last four years.

在過去四年裡，在那裡購買黃金的散戶投資者比任何其他國家都多。

Many are young, buying assets like gold beans, small gold balls that are cheaper than buying a full bar.

許多年輕人購買金豆等資產，這些小金球比購買一整塊金條要便宜。

Younger generation in China and the US and in other countries as well has become more skeptical of traditional financial assets, and so they're grasping for something else.

在中國、美國和其他國家，年輕一代對傳統金融資產更加懷疑，是以他們開始尋找其他東西。

And while China is the biggest buyer, demand for gold has increased globally.

雖然中國是最大的買家，但全球對黃金的需求也在增加。

A Gallup poll in 2023 showed Americans now prefer gold over stocks as an ideal long-term investment.

蓋洛普 2023 年的一項民意調查顯示，美國人現在更傾向於將黃金作為理想的長期投資，而不是股票。

And one place to look at to see the growing interest?

有一個地方可以看出人們越來越感興趣？

Costco.

好市多

I filled out the merchandise pickup slip, brought it to checkout, and then just waited anxiously until an employee brought it to me.

我填寫了商品領取單，拿著它去結賬，然後就焦急地等待著，直到一位員工把它拿給我。

The company began selling gold bars online and in store in 2023.

該公司於 2023 年開始在網上和店內銷售金條。

Come look at this.

來看看這個。

Oh, I'm getting that for sure.

哦，我肯定會收到的。

And it went viral on social media.

這在社交媒體上引起了熱議。

You can do the dragon one, and you can do the moon one.

你可以做龍的動作，也可以做月亮的動作。

The bars consistently sell out, and customers are spending an estimated $200 million on them per month.

這些酒吧一直都很暢銷，顧客每月的消費額估計達 2 億美元。

People know Costco.

人們都知道好市多。

They trust them, and they were eager to buy gold, so they feel comfortable.

他們信任他們，他們急於購買黃金，所以他們感到很放心。

Costco is a small fraction of the gold buying and selling that's out there, but it's revealing of the interest that regular people have.

好市多隻是黃金買賣市場中的一小部分，但它揭示了普通人對黃金的興趣。

All of this has caused gold to spin on its head, bucking decades-long trends.

所有這些都導致黃金逆勢上揚，與幾十年來的趨勢背道而馳。

Remember that gold price chart from earlier showing how it tends to go up during economic downturns?

還記得之前的那張金價走勢圖嗎？它顯示了金價在經濟低迷時期的上漲趨勢。

People buy physical gold in those circumstances because they have something tangible that they can hold onto.

在這種情況下，人們會購買實物黃金，因為他們擁有可以持有的有形之物。

It's not something that's just an image on a screen or a number on an account statement.

它不僅僅是螢幕上的影像或賬戶報表上的數字。

But some analysts say that right now, people aren't necessarily worried about the current economy, but about its future.

但一些分析師說，現在人們擔心的不一定是當前的經濟，而是經濟的未來。

We had COVID and the pandemic.

我們有 COVID 和大流行病。

We had the Ukraine, Russia invading Ukraine.

我們有烏克蘭，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭。

We now have the Middle East war.

我們現在有了中東戰爭。

We have ballooning government debt, and on top of that, just political discord, international discord.

我們的政府債務不斷膨脹，除此之外，還有政治不和、國際不和。

It's just a very turbulent, uncertain time.

這只是一個非常動盪、不確定的時期。

And just because the economy is doing well in some places doesn't mean it's doing well everywhere.

有些地方的經濟狀況良好，並不意味著所有地方的經濟狀況都很好。

For Chinese investors, the interest in gold has been driven by a recent stock market crash and turmoil in the housing market.

對於中國投資者來說，近期股市暴跌和房地產市場動盪推動了他們對黃金的興趣。

Traditionally, Chinese, just like here, bought property to store their wealth.

傳統上，中國人和這裡的人一樣，購買房產來儲存財富。

Since the real estate market there collapsed, gold has become an alternative, a hard asset that people can own to store value.

自從那裡的房地產市場崩潰以來，黃金就成了一種替代品，一種人們可以擁有的儲值硬資產。

So what does all of this mean for investors?

那麼，這一切對投資者意味著什麼呢？

Well, gold can still go up or down at any time, especially because it's often driven by emotion.

那麼，黃金仍然隨時可能上漲或下跌，尤其是因為它經常受到情緒的驅動。

But some analysts are bullish on its value continuing to stay high.

但一些分析師看好其價值繼續保持高位。

The underlying things that are causing worry and driving people to gold, those don't seem to be going away anytime soon.

導致人們擔憂並推動人們購買黃金的根本原因似乎不會很快消失。

So by and large, the street is bullish.

是以，總的來說，市場是看漲的。