The world's population is increasing and its birth rate is falling.

世界人口在增加，出生率卻在下降。

South Korea already had the world's lowest birth rate.

韓國已經是世界上出生率最低的國家。

But this week, new data showed it had fallen further.

但本週的新數據顯示，這一數字進一步下降。

Japan also recorded a new low.

日本也創下了新低。

The decline of births is in a state of crisis.

出生率的下降正處於危機狀態。

I believe we are at a time when we have to take urgent measures.

我認為，我們現在必須採取緊急措施。

The birth rate is the average number of children that each woman has and when birth rates are discussed, you'll see this number a lot: 2.1.

出生率是每位婦女平均生育孩子的數量，當討論出生率時，你會經常看到這個數字：2.1。

This is the birth rate needed to maintain population levels.

這是維持人口水平所需的出生率。

South Korea's not close.

韓國離這個數字還差很多。

Last, year, its rate was 0.72.

其出生率為 0.72。

Japan is at 1.26.

日本的出生率為 1.26。

To put this in context, the EU average is 1.53 and the UK is at 1.49 and that is a record low.

歐盟平均出生率為 1.53，英國為 1.49，創歷史新低。

In fact, many countries are now below 2.1.

事實上，許多國家現在都低於 2.1。

Even countries with relatively high birth rates are often at half the birth rate of what they were.

即使是出生率相對較高的國家，其出生率也往往只有原來的一半。

And the average person now lives in a country in the world that has a lower than replacement fertility rate.

而現在世界上普通人生活的國家，其人口比例低於更替率。

And birth rates matter because they contribute to long-term changes in our populations, and the consequences that follow.

生育率和出生率之所以重要，是因為它們有助於我們人口的長期變化。

Low birth rates can cause populations to fall.

而低出生率帶來的後果會導致人口下降。

Japan's is expected to decrease by 30% by 2070.

預計到 2070 年，日本將減少 30% 的人口。

South Korea is to halve by the end of the century.

到本世紀末，韓國的人口將減少一半。

In some countries including the UK, the situation is different.

在包括英國在內的一些國家，情況則有所不同。

Populations are projected to increase mainly because of immigration.

人口預計會增加，主要原因是移民。

But immigration can't counter all the impacts of a low birth rate.

但移民並不能抵消低出生率帶來的所有影響。

There is no quick fix, there is no one fix to population decline or population aging.

解決人口減少或人口老齡化問題沒有速效辦法，也沒有一勞永逸的辦法。

So birth rates affect population growth in the long run.

所以，從長遠來看，出生率會影響人口增長。

Whereas immigration can affect in the short run, but immigrants also age.

雖然移民會在短期內產生影響，但移民也會老化。

And as people live longer, combined with low birth rates, elderly people will make up a greater proportion of the population as we've seen in Japan.

隨著人們壽命的延長，加上出生率較低，老年人將在人口中所佔比例越來越大，就像我們在日本看到的那樣。

It's no surprise that Japan, which has had this very, very long, very low fertility rate and the oldest population in the world has got the worst government finances in the developed world.

毫不訝異，日本的生育率一直處於非常非常低的水平，而且人口老化程度是世界上最高的，但其政府財政是已開發國家中最差的。

Because the government is indeed spending more and more on healthcare and pensions and has fewer and fewer taxpayers.

因為政府確實在醫療保健和退休金方面的支出越來越多，但納稅人卻越來越少。

If that's Japan, in the UK, a shift in the makeup of the population is coming.

如果那是日本的情況，那麼在英國，人口組成的轉變即將到來。

By 2070, the number of workers is projected to rise by a million.

到 2070 年，人口構成將發生變化，預計勞動人口數量將增加一百萬。

The number of pensioners will rise by 5 million.

領取養老金的人數將增加 500 萬。

This will inevitably create pressures.

這將不可避免地造成壓力。

The economist argues that for countries with low birth rates, the implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and possibly government budget crises.

這位經濟學家認為，對於出生率低的國家來說，其影響包括稅收增加、退休時間延遲、儲戶實際回報降低以及可能出現政府預算危機。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

But there's no doubt some governments are increasingly preoccupied with low birth rates and what's causing them.

但毫無疑問，一些國家的政府越來越關注低出生率及其原因。

In South Korea, there are many reasons including the cost of education and expectations of women in the workplace.

在韓國，原因有很多，包括教育成本和對職場女性的期望。

Childcare is a consideration too just as it is in the UK.

在英國，兒童養育也是一個考慮因素。

According to a recent international study, the UK has some of the highest childcare costs in the world.

根據最近的一項國際研究，英國是世界上兒童養育費用最高的國家之一。

There's also a shortage of places.

並且缺少托兒所。

And around the world, the availability of childcare impacts women's decisions.

在世界各地，兒童保育服務的可用性影響著女性的決定。

Research really shows that if you have affordable high quality early childhood education, good daycare for everybody, that is associated with higher birth rates.

研究確實表明，如果你能負擔得起高品質的幼兒教育，為每個人提供良好的日托服務，這與更高的出生率有關。

This helps explain what's happening.

這有助於解釋發生了什麼。

But by the admission of those who study birth rates, fully explaining what's happening is hard, and it makes responding to low birth rates hard too.

但研究出生率的人也承認，要完全解釋發生了什麼是很難的，這也使得應對低出生率也很難。

It's difficult for policymakers to address the complexity of the cultural reasons why we are not having as many children.

政策制定者很難解決我們生育數量較少的文化原因的複雜性。

What really they have in their arsenal is only economic tools and it goes well beyond that.

他們的武器庫中真正擁有的只是經濟工具，而且遠遠不止於此。

It's difficult for policymakers but some are acting.

這對政策制定者來說很困難，但有些人正在採取行動。

In South Korea, they tried cash incentives and subsidized health care as we've seen that didn't work.

在韓過，他們嘗試過現金獎勵和醫療補貼，但我們看到這行不通。

In France in January, President Macron talked of demographic rearmament and announced a plan that includes changes to parental leave.

在法國，今年 1 月，馬克宏總統談到了重整人口結構，並宣佈了一項計劃，其中包括修改育兒假。

Or in Italy, which has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, Prime Minister Maloney has announced a range of initiatives.

或者在歐洲出生率最低的國家之一的義大利，總理馬洛尼宣布了一系列舉措。

But evidence suggests it's very difficult to reverse a falling birth rate, and while some countries try, the global population continues to go up.

但有證據表明，扭轉出生率下降的趨勢非常困難，儘管一些國家正在努力，但全球人口仍在持續上升。

And the UN highlights two factors to explain this: the gradual increase in human lifespan and high and persistent levels of fertility in some countries.

聯合國強調了兩個因素來解釋這一現象：人類壽命的逐漸延長以及一些國家的高且持續的生育水平。

There are those to whom this global population growth is the real issue in particular for our climate and who believe low birth rates are welcome.

對某些人來說，全球人口成長是真正的問題，特別是對我們的氣候而言，他們認為低出生率是受歡迎的。

But as we've seen already, many countries have low birth rates and some want to increase theirs.

但正如我們已經看到的，許多國家的出生率較低，有些國家希望提高出生率。

Population growth and low birth rates are both demanding attention.

人口成長和低出生率都需要關注。

A lot of people are surprised to see that the global population numbers are still growing. The total number of people on the planet, at the same time that we keep talking about birth rates declining.

許多人對全球人口數量仍在增長感到驚訝。 與我們不斷談論出生率下降的同時，地球上的總人口數量仍在增加。

And I like to think of it as what's on the surface versus what's beneath the surface.

我喜歡將其看作是表面現象與深層現象之間的差異。

And beneath the surface, those declining birth rates will cause major shifts in the nature of our populations.

而在表面之下，出生率的下降將導致我們人口的性質發生重大變化。

Shifts that may lead the global population to start falling in the next century; shifts that for better or worse will have consequences for how our societies function.

可能導致全球人口在下個世紀開始下降的變化； 無論好壞，這些變化都會對我們社會的運作方式產生影響。