Both presidents Putin and Zelensky vowed to end the fight with victory within a year.

普丁和澤連斯基總統都誓言要在一年內取得勝利，結束這場戰鬥。

Well, two years on, there's still no end in sight.

好吧，兩年過去了，仍然看不到盡頭。

Joining me in the studio is Professor Michael Clarke to talk a bit more about this in depth.

Michael Clarke 教授和我一起來到錄影現場，對這個問題進行了更深入的討論。

So at the start of this conflict, what are your thoughts then? That was two years ago that we were perhaps stood here talking about what lies ahead, two years on...

那麼在這場衝突開始時，你的想法是什麼？ 那是兩年前，我們也許站在這裡談論未來的事情，兩年後......

Yeah, I mean, I think we're seeing the return of industrial warfare to Europe.

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們正在看到工業戰爭重返歐洲。

I've been saying that for a little while.

我已經這麼說了有一段時間了。

We didn't think we would see it after 1945 but it's back with us again now, which means that it's the war is won by the side that can gear up its industry to fight long campaigns in what is going to become some sort of war of attrition.

我們在1945年後沒想到會再次見到這種情況，但現在它又回來了，這意味著戰爭的勝利取決於哪一方能夠調動其工業來進行長期戰役，這將成為一場某種程度上的消耗戰。

And it began two years ago, the Russians as it were created a pendulum swing towards themselves.

兩年前開始，俄羅斯彷彿在自己一方製造了一個擺動的鐘擺。

They moved against Kyiv, they moved westwards from the Donbas, west to try to take this land bridge towards Crimea, which they did.

他們向基輔進攻，從頓巴斯向西移動，試圖通過這座通往克里米亞的陸橋，他們做到了。

They took Kherson. They got stopped at Mykolaiv, they got stopped at Mariupol for quite a while and they were stopped in Kyiv and that was critical.

他們奪取了赫爾松。 他們在尼古拉耶夫被阻止了，他們在馬裡烏波爾被阻止了相當長的時間，他們在基輔也被阻止了，這是至關重要的。

And then the pendulum began to swing back to Ukraine.

然後，鐘擺開始擺回烏克蘭。

In the autumn of 2022, there was a quick surprise offensive in Kharkiv which was successful through the Russians out of Kharkiv altogether.

2022 年秋天，俄羅斯人在哈爾科夫發動了一次快速奇襲，並取得了成功。

There was another one; west of the Nipper River in Kherson in Kherson Oblast.

還有另外一個； 位於赫爾松州赫爾松尼珀河以西。

And then we thought the pendulum was moving decisively back towards Ukraine.

然後我們認為鐘擺果斷地回到了烏克蘭。

There was a big offensive, Ukrainian offensive that started on the fourth of June.

六月四日，烏克蘭發動了一場大規模攻勢。

It concentrated on outer Kyiv, south trying to cut this land bridge.

它集中在基輔外圍，向南試圖切斷這座陸橋。

It only got about 30 kilometers because of Russian defenses.

由於俄羅斯的防禦，距離只有約30公里。

And then the pendulum has begun to swung back to Russia again.

然後鐘擺又開始擺回俄羅斯。

They've tried all along the front to make inroads and last weekend, they succeeded at Avdiivka and that is strategically quite important because it might allow them to take the rest of the Donbas.

他們一直在嘗試在前線取得進展，上週末，他們在阿夫迪夫卡取得了成功，這在戰略上非常重要，因為這可能會讓他們佔領頓巴斯的其餘地區。

And when Avdiivka fell last weekend, that was a big plus for Russia, a big negative for Ukraine.

上週末阿夫迪夫卡淪陷時，這對俄羅斯來說是一大利好，對烏克蘭來說則是一大利空。

And so I think we'll see as the year goes on, the Russians will try to consolidate in the Donbas.

因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將看到俄羅斯人將試圖在頓巴斯鞏固地位。

The Ukrainians, I'm sure will try to put Crimea under more pressure, but I don't think either of them will make any really strategic breakthroughs this year.

我確信烏克蘭人會試圖給克里米亞施加更大的壓力，但我認為他們今年都不會有任何真正的戰略突破。

We're looking really at the beginning of next year, which is why it comes back to the industrial capacity that both sides can employ.

我們實際上是在看明年初的情況，這就是為什麼回到了雙方能夠動用的工業能力這一點。

And also in the long game of war that we're talking about here, funding is so, so important, and we've seen over the last few months that support perhaps is waning in that area, financial support.

在我們所討論的這場長期戰爭中，資金也是非常重要的因素，而在過去的幾個月裡，我們可能已經看到在這方面的支持減弱，財政支持。

Yeah, this is a rough chart of the degree of support that's gone to Ukraine so far.

是的，這是迄今為止烏克蘭的金援簡略圖表。

So this is in billions of dollars and the eu has put in about $90 billion.

這是數十億美元，歐盟已投入約 900 億美元。

The United States has put in about $70 billion and is looking to put another $60 billion in.

美國已投入約 700 億美元，並計劃再投入 600 億美元。

That's the aid that is stalled in Congress.

這就是國會擱置的援助。

But of course, the red and the blue is important.

當然，紅色和藍色也很重要。

The blue represents financial support.

藍色代表財政支持。

So the EU has kept the government running in Ukraine.

因此，歐盟維持了烏克蘭政府的運作。

The Americans have kept the military running in Ukraine. That's the red.

美國讓軍隊在烏克蘭保持運作。 就是那個紅色。

That's really important because without the extra $60 billion, the Americans won't deliver, can't deliver legally any more ammunition.

這非常重要，因為如果沒有額外的 600 億美元，美國人就無法合法地提供更多的彈藥。

So they haven't had any more supplies since December.

所以自 12 月以來他們就沒有更多的供應了。

And of course, Donald Trump, his influence on the Republicans is holding back that aid package so far very effectively.

當然，唐納德·川普，他對共和黨的影響力迄今為止非常有效地阻礙了援助計劃。

It probably won't go through, not in the form that President Biden wanted it to.

它可能不會以拜登總統希望的形式獲得通過。

Ok. So what can we expect then moving forward, do you think?

好的。 那麼，您認為接下來我們可以預期什麼呢？

Well, this has become a conflict which is about more than Ukraine itself.

這已經成為一場不僅僅關乎烏克蘭本身的衝突。

Of course, it's about the existence of Ukraine.

當然，這與烏克蘭的存在有關。

It's about the independence of Ukraine.

這是關於烏克蘭的獨立。

The Russians say that Ukraine doesn't deserve to exist.

俄羅斯人說，烏克蘭不配存在。

It should be part of Russia.

它應該是俄羅斯的一部分。

And every now and again, they make genocidal statements about the Ukrainians and sometimes we think they might be satisfied with the Donbas this time, but there will be another time and so on.

他們不時對烏克蘭人發表種族滅絕言論，有時我們認為他們這次可能對頓巴斯感到滿意，但還會有下一次，依此類推。

So it's about Ukraine, but it's about more than that as well.

這場戰爭與烏克蘭有關，但也不止於此。

The Western world has committed itself again and again to supporting Ukraine.

西方世界一再承諾支持烏克蘭。

And it seems to come down to a sort of a competition between these two men, a 71-year-old traditional dictator warmonger, as opposed to a 46-year-old former comedian, who is now the savior president of an independent Ukraine.

這似乎歸結為這兩個人之間的某種競爭，一個是71歲的傳統獨裁者戰爭販子，另一個是46歲的前喜劇演員，而後者現在是獨立烏克蘭的救世主總統。

But it's about much more than that.

但它的意義遠不止於此。

The Western world has said that Ukraine is the crucible for the ability of the Western democracies to push back against this tide of autocracy, which seems to be taking over the world.

西方世界稱，烏克蘭是西方民主國家能否抵抗這場似乎席捲世界的獨裁浪潮的考驗。

And the rest of the world, the global South as we call it, is standing back to see what happens.

而世界其他地區，也就是我們所說的南方國家，正在袖手旁觀，看看會發生什麼事。

And if the Western world is seen to be a paper tiger, is seen not to be able to deliver on its commitments,

如果西方世界被視為紙老虎，被視為無法兌現其承諾，

then the rest of the world will take due notice of that and will begin to lean towards Putin and Xi Jinping in China and other dictators on the assumption that the world is really now moving in their direction.

那麼世界其他國家就會適當注意到這一點，並開始傾向於中國的普丁和習近平以及其他獨裁者，因為他們認為世界現在確實正在朝著他們的方向發展。

Ok, so, so interesting, Michael. Thank you as always.

好的，非常麼有趣。Michael， 一如既往地感謝你。