you often encounter a cloud of sweet-smelling vapor or an abandoned e-cigarette on the floor.

But the industry is undergoing major change as governments look to restrict the sale of

disposable vapes amid concerns about  the rise in vaping among young people

and non-smokers getting addicted.

As of October 2023, 28 countries have banned the sale of any type of e-cigarettes.

In addition, the U.K., Germany, France, Ireland

and Belgium, are among the countries looking into how they can ban disposable, or one-use vapes,

as they continue to grow in popularity.

So, what does the rise in vaping mean for

the tobacco industry, and is the hysteria  over their impacts well-justified?

The vaping industry has exploded over  the last decade, as health bodies have

promoted it as an aid to quit smoking while  cigarettes continue to fall out of fashion.

In the U.K., we have encouraged vaping among people who are struggling to stop smoking,

and the use of e-cigarettes among those people has gone up over the years,

things like nicotine patches, gums, lozenges, and some drugs as well. You don't get that same

hit as you would with smoking a cigarette. Whereas with e-cigarettes, you do feel that

nicotine hit. So, it's a lot more similar to  the experience of smoking. And as well as that,

you get the more social experience of  going out and doing it with someone.

And with interest, comes innovation.

The first known design of a vape was actually

created almost 100 years ago in New York, but the technology wasn't made until much later, in 1963.

Two designs preceded the vapes we know today. The first looked like a cigarette,

with a glowing light at the end, and the  second was a much larger, metallic device.

Many of today's designs are much  sleeker and look more like a piece

of tech than an aid to stop smoking.

So this is actually one of our present-day

devices. The battery itself is a little  bit bigger. Yes, it's a metallic, nice,

finished design, you get a screen on the front here to be able to tell people how much battery

life is left. Because all these elements, if  you're not a vaper, you're sort of thinking,

that feels a little bit sophisticated. When  you've made the transition across from cigarettes,

battery life, you don't want to be out and  suddenly find that your e-cigarette may fail

on you. Because if you imagine when people have  started on a single-use product, it's a very

simple device, you don't need to fill a product.  You just take a sticker off, take a sticker off,

you go, and then hopefully dispose of it  responsibly, not into household waste.

Hoping to capitalize on  this fast-growing industry,

big tobacco companies waded into the market.

British American Tobacco was the first to move

into the space, when it acquired  start-up CN Creative in 2012.

Imperial then acquired  e-cigarette brand Blu in 2014.

Philip Morris bought UK e-cigarette  company Nicocigs the same year.

And Japan Tobacco Incorporation  bought E-lites in 2015.

The old cigarette model in terms of volume declines was becoming much more pressured.

There were increasing examples of countries  outlining tobacco endgame policies within the

next 10 to 20 years. There was increasing ESG  overhang from investors and how the investment

community viewed cigarettes and we started to see  these products appear on the market from non-big

tobacco and take share from cigarettes, so, they  were a competitive threat for the first time.

The number of adults using e-cigarettes rose to  9.1% of the U.K. population in 2022, which is the

highest ever, up from just 2.7% 10 years ago.

Meanwhile, the number of smokers has dropped

year on year, and fell to 12.9% of the population  in 2022, the lowest since records began in 2011.

And those figures are translating into big  profits. British American Tobacco saw revenue

from its vapor products increase by 40.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, so it's unsurprising that

big tobacco is pivoting towards vaping.

But the huge growth in the legal vape

market is just one side of this  story. In the last ten years,

illegal vapes have generated big sums of cash.

The market is worth between three and four billion.

You could estimate, and intelligence  would suggest, that the illicit market could be

as much as two thirds of that. So you've got a double issue,

you've got unregulated products to a vast degree  in the market, and actually, then youths accessing

the product because those retailers prepared to  stop those products are not doing the necessary

age verification. So, a really big issue.

And there are some key giveaways when it comes to spotting illegal products.

A bigger puff device is certainly wider,

and certainly taller, normally quite square.  So actually, if you see that as a consumer

in a shop, anything over 600. You won't find any  reputable manufacturer using cartoon characters,

or flavor names that are associated with drinks  or food because there's already legislation.

That should give you those warning signs.

Not only are illegal vapes taking a big

slice of the vaping industry, but they're  also putting users in serious danger.

We saw in the U.S. a string of deaths and  hospitalizations, which seemingly were

linked to vaping. And that caused 60 deaths and  hundreds of hospitalizations with this lung issue,

which they eventually called EVALI. What  we found out eventually was that this

illness was being caused by people who were  trying to vape THC. And to do that they were

adding something called vitamin E acetate. And  this vitamin E acetate is banned in the U.K.

In the U.K., we've seen banned heavy metals in  products that have been confiscated in schools.

We've also heard reports of spice being added  to vapes and children coming across these. So,

being exposed to drugs which they were not  expecting to be exposing themselves to.

So, it's a very, very risky landscape at the  moment for young people who are vaping.

And as with most quick-moving markets,  regulations will always struggle to

keep up with innovation. Big tobacco firms,  including British American Tobacco for example,

are selling heat sticks made from nicotine-infused  substances such as rooibos tea, which circumvent

the EU ban of flavored-heated tobacco.

The influx of all the flavors in these

cheap disposable brands from China over the  last few years, from a big tobacco perspective,

it's actually a positive because this will  encourage regulators now to take action against

these products. It is going to be a positive from  a big tobacco perspective, because it leads to

that consolidation, it also creates barriers  to entry going forward, so you won't see more

and more products coming in from China.

Meanwhile, smokers are still actively

being encouraged to take up vaping to  quit cigarettes. The British National

Health Service for example says it poses  a small fraction of the risk of smoking,

which causes around seven out of every ten cases  of lung cancer. But health professionals also

highlight that vaping is not completely risk-free,  and the longer-term risks are not yet known.

We're fairly certain that vaping will be less  harmful for you in the long run than smoking

will be because it's got fewer harmful chemicals  intoxicants in there. The issue is, if you're

taking in those harmful chemicals intoxicants, and  you wouldn't have been exposed to those otherwise,

you're then increasing your harm. So, we  have cigarettes at the top as the most

risky thing you can do. Then there's e-cigarettes  underneath that, but the least or least harmful

thing or the safest thing you can do is neither.

Yes, we are seeing increasing youth prevalence,

but I think you need to put that one in context  of other vices or over categories like cannabis

and alcohol. But at the same time, we're seeing  increased youth usage, youth cigarette smoking

is lower than it's ever been both in the U.S.  in the U.K., which would suggest that if these

youths were not using vape, which is much safer  than cigarettes, they would otherwise be smoking.

In the U.K., e-cigarette usage is highest  among people aged between 16 and 24 while

one in nine children had experimented with  vaping in March 2023, which is up from one in

thirteen in the same month in 2022.

So as a fast-growing industry, both legally and on the black market, it looks like vaping is here to stay.  

I think we've got to around the level at which  it will be at its most popular, but how long it

takes for it to decrease in popularity, again,  is yet to be seen. And it's difficult to really

think about how long a fad can last. Until they  become less trendy, it's going to be a really,

really uphill drive for us to try and reduce the  youth use without having a reduce in the trend.

If you look at the growth curve over the last two  years, that has been that demonstrable increase.

That is great, because, in many ways, people  weren't sure what it was about, what are these products?

Are they the solution or are they the issue?

Well, actually, hopefully, it's been proven now.