In psychology, what Russell described is more popularly known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

在心理學中，羅素所描述的情況更普遍被稱為達克效應。

This effect finds that people who are bad at something tend to believe that they're actually good at it and people who are good at something tend to believe that they are bad at it.

這種效應發現，不擅長某事的人傾向於相信自己其實很擅長，而擅長某事的人則傾向於相信自己很差。

Elderly people who believe they're better drivers than most are actually four times more likely to make unsafe driving error.

年長者認為自己比大多數人更擅長開車的人，實際上卻有四倍的可能性犯下危險駕駛錯誤。

Gun owners who think they're highly knowledgeable about gun safety score the lowest on tests about gun safety.

認為自己對槍支安全非常了解的槍擁有者，在有關槍支安全的測試中得分最低。

Medical lab workers who rate themselves as highly competent in their jobs are actually the worst at their jobs.

自認在醫學實驗室工作上非常有能力的人實際上可能是工作中表現最差的。

The lowest performing college students dramatically overestimate their performance on exams.

表現最差的大學生在考試中會明顯高估自己的表現。

The lowest performers in a debate competition wildly overestimate how well they do.

辯論比賽中表現最差的人會極大地高估自己的表現。

People with the unhealthiest lifestyle habits rate themselves as far healthier than they actually are.

擁有最不健康生活習慣的人往往高估自己的健康狀態。

People who score poorly on cognitive reasoning and analytical thinking tests severely overestimate their cognitive and analytical abilities.

在認知推理和分析思維測試中得分較低的人嚴重高估自己的認知和分析能力。

But why does this happen?

這種現象為什麼會發生呢？

To understand, let's break knowledge down into four quadrants.

為了理解，讓我們將知識分為四個象限。

So there are known-knowns, things that we know that we know, like I know I know how to ride a bike.

所以有已知已知，就是我們知道自己知道的事情，比如我知道我知道如何騎自行車。

There are known-unknowns, things that we know that we don't know.

有已知未知，就是我們知道自己不知道的事情。

For example, I have no fucking clue how quantum physics works.

例如，我完全不知道量子物理是如何運作的。

And then there are unknown-known, things that you forgot, you knew or you don't realize that, you know, like you still remember how to drive to the supermarket from your childhood home. You just forgot that you knew that.

然後有未知已知，就是你遺忘了自己知道的事情，或者你沒有意識到自己知道的事情，比如你仍然記得從你童年家開車去超市的路。你只是忘了你知道這個。

And then there are unknow-unknown, stuff that you don't know that you don't know.

然後有未知未知，就是你不知道自己不知道的事情。

When we are an amateur at something, we are very aware of the things that we know we know, and we're completely oblivious to the things that we don't know.

當我們是某事的新手時，我們非常清楚自己知道的事情，對於自己不知道的事情則完全無視。

Let's use basketball as an example.

讓我們以籃球為例。

If you know nothing about basketball, it seems simple enough.

如果你對籃球一無所知，它似乎相當簡單。

You throw a ball into the net, you know what you know, and don't know what you don't know.

你把球投進籃筐，你知道你知道的，而且不知道你不知道的。

But as you start to learn more about basketball, you discover that there are a lot of nuances;

但當你開始了解更多有關籃球的知識時，你會發現其中有很多細微之處；

how you shoot the ball, the mechanics of your elbow, wrist and forearm, how you position the ball in your hand,

比如你如何投籃，肘部、腕部和前臂的機械結構，你如何在手中握球，

understanding the different shots: a fadeaway, a jumper, a layup, a finger roll, an alley-oop.

了解不同的投籃方式：後仰投籃、跳投、上籃、挑籃、空中接力。

You're beginning to become aware of all the things you don't know, and there's a lot that you don't know.

你開始意識到所有你不知道的事情，而有很多東西你都不知道。

Let's say you spend another year working on basketball, you've mastered a bunch of different shots and learned to shoot with good form.

假設你又花了一年的時間學習籃球，你已經掌握了許多不同的投籃方式，並學會了以良好的方式投籃。

Now you're getting into the weeds of defensive schemes, hand checking, picks and rolls, setting various kinds of screens.

現在你要深入研究防守計畫、防守者用手觸碰、擋拆技巧、設置各種掩護。

At this point, you're no longer even thinking about your shooting form or how to hit a free throw.

此時，你甚至不再思考你的投籃姿勢或如何罰球。

You've forgotten you know this stuff, it's unconscious, it's automatic. It's the stuff you know, but you forgot you know, and there's a ton of it.

你忘了你知道這些東西，它是無意識的，它是自動的。 這是你知道但你忘記了的東西，而且有很多。

As you can see, the difference between an amateur and a professional is that an amateur's knowledge is known to them, therefore, they get to feel smart about it.

正如你所看到的，業餘愛好者和專業人士之間的區別在於，業餘愛好者的知識是他們所知道的，因此，他們會覺得自己很聰明。

But an expert, so much of their knowledge is either unconscious and automatic or its knowledge of what they still need to learn.

但對專家來說，他們的許多知識要不是無意識的、自動的，就是他們仍然需要學習的知識。

Another way to visualize this shift is to think of knowledge as a circle.

形象化這種轉變的另一種方法是將知識視為一個圓圈。

The area within the circle is what you know about a topic, and the border is the horizon of your knowledge or everything that you're aware of that you don't know yet.

圓圈內的區域是你對某個主題的了解，而邊界是你的知識範圍或你知道但尚不知道的所有內容。

This border is what determines our uncertainty or doubt.

這個邊界決定了我們的不確定性或懷疑。

Interestingly, as the size of your circle grows larger, the horizon of your knowledge also grows larger; the more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

有趣的是，隨著你的圈子越來越大，你的知識面也越來越大； 你知道的越多，你知道你不知道的就越多。

But something else happens as well as you gain knowledge. As you implement information and it becomes automatic, you forget that you know it.

但在你獲得知識的同時，還會發生其他事情。 當你實施資訊並且它變得自動時，你會忘記你知道它。

So there's a second border inside the first, this smaller circle is everything that you've forgotten you know.

因此，第一個邊框內還有第二個邊框，這個較小的圓圈就是您忘記的所有內容。

So not only is the experts horizon of doubt much longer, most of their knowledge is also unconscious.

因此，不僅專家的懷疑視野更長，而且他們的大部分知識也是無意識的。

They forgot that they know it because it strikes them as so obvious and immediate why even think about it.

他們忘記了自己知道這一點，因為這對他們來說是如此明顯和直接，為什麼還要思考。

The idiot thinks he knows everything because he literally doesn't have enough knowledge to know better.

白痴認為他知道一切，因為他確實沒有足夠的知識來更好地了解。

Meanwhile, the expert thinks he knows nothing because he is so aware of all the ways in which he may be wrong.

同時，專家認為他一無所知，因為他非常清楚自己可能犯錯的所有面向。

Now I know what you're probably doing right now.

現在我知道你現在可能在做什麼。

It's probably the same thing I did and most people do when they learn about the Dunning-Kruger effect, you think to yourself, "What a bunch of fucking idiots."

這可能與我和大多數人所做的一樣，當他們了解達克效應時，你會想，「真是一群該死的白痴。」

Good thing (is) I know about this Dunning-Kruger effect thing because you know, I'm super aware of all my flaws that makes me like an expert at fucking everything.

好消息是，我知道達克效應，因為你知道，我非常清楚自己所有的缺點，這讓我像個搞砸一切的專家。

So this is the tricky thing about learning about cognitive biases.

所以這就是了解認知偏誤的棘手之處。

We would like to think that because we're aware of all the ways our mind fucks up that we are somehow immune to those fuck ups.

我們願意這樣認為，因為我們意識到我們的思想混亂的所有方式，所以我們在某種程度上對這些混亂免疫。

But once again, we are so wrong because again and again, research has shown that educating people about their cognitive biases doesn't really make them any less susceptible to cognitive biases.

但我們再一次錯了，因為研究一次又一次地表明，教育人們了解他們的認知偏誤並不能真正讓他們不再容易受到認知偏誤的影響。

And that is the most frustrating thing about the Dunning-Kruger effect.

這就是達克效應最令人沮喪的地方。

It is so hard to overcome both in others, but also in ourselves because here's the thing, they're called blind spots for a reason.

克服別人和我們自己都很難，因為事情就是這樣，它們被稱為盲點是有原因的。

You can't fucking see them.

你他媽的跟本看不到他們。

How do you fix something that you can't see in yourself?

你如何修復自己看不到的東西？

This is the paradox of trying to overcome our own ignorance.

這就是試圖克服我們自己的無知的弔詭。

The very thing that would help us see our mistakes is exactly what would prevent us from making them in the first place.

能夠幫助我們看到錯誤的東西正是能夠阻止我們犯錯的東西。

Part of the problem is that there is a comfort in the feeling of knowing. People don't like uncertainty, settling on a belief, whether it's true or not is a way to resolve anxiety within ourselves.

部分問題在於，了解的感覺會帶來一種安慰。 人們不喜歡不確定性，確定一個信念，無論它是真是假，都是解決我們內心焦慮的方法。

So our minds often default to believing things even if we don't have a whole lot of evidence for them.

因此，即使我們沒有大量證據，我們的大腦也常常默認相信某些事情。

And unfortunately, ripping on people for being fucking stupid doesn't really help the situation either.

不幸的是，指責人們愚蠢也無濟於事。

Anybody who's gotten in a dumbass argument and comment threads can tell you this from experience.

任何陷入愚蠢爭論和評論的人都可以從經驗中告訴你這一點。

Again and again, psychology has shown that when people's beliefs are challenged, they don't change their minds, they actually get more rigid and defensive.

心理學一次又一次地表明，當人們的信念受到挑戰時，他們不會改變主意，實際上會變得更加僵化和防禦。

So what are we supposed to do?

那我們該做什麼呢？

Well, starting with ourselves, I think it's an important practice to perhaps hold fewer opinions or at least hold them less strongly.

好吧，從我們自己開始，我認為減少抱持的觀點或至少不那麼強烈地持有觀點是一種重要的做法。

This means being less emotionally attached to our beliefs.

這意味著減少對我們信念的情感依賴。

In other words, I think there's a lot to say for humility.

換句話說，我認為謙虛很重要。

When you see something online that is upsetting or angering or frustrating, instead of jumping to conclusions about that person or that cause, maybe sit back and say, "I don't know."

當你在網上看到一些令人不安、憤怒或沮喪的事情時，不要對那個人或那個原因草率下結論，也許可以坐下來說：「我不知道。」

What the fuck am I saying? You guys aren't gonna do that.

我他媽在說什麼？ 你們才不會這麼做的。

Let's be honest.

老實一點吧。

You know, last year I created an online course that helped people challenge their own beliefs.

你知道，去年我創建了一個線上課程，幫助人們挑戰自己的信念。

It helped people figure out how to hold opinions a little bit more softly but funny, funny thing.

它幫助人們弄清楚如何以更溫和但有趣的方式表達自己的觀點。

Nobody fucking took the course.

沒人上那堂課。

You know, for some reason, there wasn't a ton of demand for that and not to mention it's fucking hard to market.

你知道，出於某種原因，對此的需求並不大，更不用說它很難推銷到市場上去。

Like how do you market a thing to people that's gonna make them feel wrong about everything they believe in their life.

就像你如何向人們推銷一種東西，會讓他們對自己生活中所相信的一切感到錯誤。

That's not exactly like the most enticing sales pitch.

這並不完全像是最誘人的銷售說辭。

But if for some reason you want to take that course, you can find the link in the description.

但如果出於某種原因你想參加該課程，你可以在說明欄中找到連結。

Good fucking luck.

祝你好運。

So when it comes to other people, I think one of the hard truths that I've had to swallow over the years is that you can't really change the mind of somebody who's not willing to have their mind change.

因此，當談到其他人時，我認為多年來我不得不接受的殘酷事實之一是，你無法真正改變那些不願意改變想法的人的想法。

You can throw as much data and statistics and logical arguments at them.

你可以向他們扔盡可能多的數據、統計數據和邏輯論證。

But they're just gonna like Nin jitsu that shit, you know, pull a Neo in the Matrix and all the bullets are gonna get by him.

但他們只是喜歡忍術，你知道，在駭客任務裡的尼奧，所有的子彈都會從他身邊射過。

I think this is because most people's beliefs are not based on logic or reason.

我認為這是因為大多數人的信念不是基於邏輯或理性。

Most people's beliefs are based on identity and group affiliation.

大多數人的信念都是基於身分認同和群體歸屬。

And so when you show them contradicting data, their thought process isn't, "Oh, I need to update my prior assumptions about the world."

因此，當你向他們展示相互矛盾的數據時，他們的思考過程不會是：「哦，我需要更新我之前對世界的假設。」

Their thought process is like, "I'm being attacked. My tribe is being attacked."

他們的思維過程就像是：「我正在受到攻擊。我的部落正在受到攻擊。」

You know, many years ago, I used to coach people and one of the reasons I fucking stopped coaching people is because it was often very frustrating.

你知道，很多年前，我曾經給人們指導，而我他媽的不再給人們指導的原因之一是因為它常常非常令人沮喪。

Somebody would hire me for a week or we do like a monthly call or something.

有人會僱用我一周，或者我們確實喜歡每月一次電話會議之類的。

And it just felt like I was like beating my head against the wall.

我感覺就像用頭撞牆一樣。

Like I was telling them the same thing over and over and over again.

我一遍又一遍地告訴他們同樣的事情。

Usually like deep, profound truths don't sink in for people the first time.

通常，深刻的真理不會讓人第一次就明白。

It's almost like you plant the seed in their head and then they need to go live for another year or two for that idea of the sprout.

就像你在他們的腦海中種下了種子，然後他們需要再活一兩年才能發芽。

It's almost like we have to be in the right environment or context or be going through the right phase of our journey for those seeds to sprout.

就像我們必須處於正確的環境或背景中，或經歷我們旅程的正確階段才能使這些種子發芽。

So one thing that has helped me a lot in my own relationships and just fucking tolerating all the nonsense that goes on in the world is understanding that I'm not here to change minds necessarily, I'm here to plant seeds.

所以，在我自己的人際關係中，對我幫助很大的一件事就是讓我容忍世界上發生的所有胡言亂語，那就是明白我來這裡不一定是為了改變想法，我來這裡是為了種下種子。

I'm here to drop an idea or an argument.

我來這裡是為了提出一個想法或論點。

So that one day if that person becomes fertile ground, that seed can sprout.

因此，有一天，如果那個人成為沃土，那顆種子就能發芽。

The most impactful things usually don't sink in right away. They usually need like a few weeks or months or even a couple of years to like incubate in a person's head.

最有影響力的事情通常不會立即被人們所接受。 它們通常需要幾週、幾個月甚至幾年的時間才能在人類的大腦中孵化。

And when I look at my own life, this also feels true like there were things that people told me in my teens that I didn't fully appreciate until my twenties or thirties or hell, even almost 40.

當我審視自己的生活時，我也感覺這是真的，就像人們在我十幾歲的時候告訴我的一些事情，直到我二三十歲甚至快四十歲時我才完全理解。

Ultimately, I think humility is one of the most underrated values in our world right now.

最終，我認為謙虛是當今世界上最被低估的價值觀之一。

On the internet, people are rewarded for false confidence, people are rewarded for being bold.

在網路上，人們因虛假的自信而受到獎勵，人們因大膽而受到獎勵。

People are rewarded for being zealots and fanatics about things.

人們因對事物的狂熱和狂熱而獲得獎勵。

But while the algorithms may reward bluster and bullshit, the real world doesn't.

但是，雖然演算法可能會獎勵咆哮和廢話，但現實世界卻不會。

Life is really fucking difficult and complicated and most of us don't really know what we're doing most of the time.

生活真的非常困難和複雜，我們大多數人大部分時間都不知道自己在做什麼。

So any sense of false certainty is really just gonna cause more pain than necessary.

因此，任何錯誤的確定感實際上只會造成不必要的痛苦。

I think what the Dunning-Kruger effect really teaches us is that humility is actually very practical.

我認為達克效應真正告訴我們的是，謙虛其實是非常實用的。

By intentionally underestimating our own understanding of things, not only do we open ourselves up to learn and grow more, but we also prevent ourselves from just being a fucking narcissistic ass face on the internet.

透過故意低估我們自己對事物的理解，我們不僅可以開放自己去學習和成長更多，而且還可以防止自己在網路上成為一個自戀的混蛋。

That is of course, until we decide that I'm the most humble person you ever met. Man, I'm so fucking humble, you wouldn't believe it.

當然，直到我們認定我是你見過的最謙虛的人。 我太他媽的謙虛了，你不會相信的。

Everybody thinks they're humble, but I'm really humble like I've got this humility shit down.

每個人都認為自己很謙虛，但我真的很謙虛，就像我已經把這種謙虛記下來了。

They should bottle it up and put that shit on eBay because I'm gonna make a fucking killing.

他們應該把它封起來，然後把這些東西放到 eBay 上，因為我他媽的要大賺一筆了。

Humility (is) like off the charts. You can't even see, you can't even see how high it is up there, man.

我的謙虛高到不可思議的。 你甚至看不到，你甚至看不到有多高。

Camera doesn't go that high.

相機沒辦法拍到那麼高。

It's that humble, that fucking humble.

就是這麼謙虛。

And as you can see, now we're back to square one.

如你所見，現在我們又回到了原點。