One is that a bad guy is in control of the system.

令人難以置信的能力，即 AGI、AGI+、

And so we have good guys who have equally powerful systems that hopefully minimizes that problem.

我擔心三件事

There's the chance of the system taking control.

一是壞人控制了系統。

And for some reason, I'm, I'm less concerned about that.

如果我們有好人

I'm glad other people are the one that, that sort of befuddles me as human purpose.

誰擁有同樣強大的系統

I get a lot of excitement that, hey, I'm good at working on malaria and malaria eradication and getting smart people and a primary source to that.

希望能最大限度地減少這一問題。

When the machine says to me, Bill, go play pickleball.

有可能被系統控制。

I've got malaria education.

出於某些原因，我對此不太擔心。

If you're just a slow thinker, then, you know, it is a philosophically confusing thing and how you organize society.

我很高興其他人也是這樣。

Yes, we're going to improve education.

讓我感到困惑的是人類的目的。

But education to do what if, if you get to this extreme, which we still have a big uncertainty.

我很興奮，嘿、

But for the first time, the chance that might come in the next 20 years is, is not zero.

我擅長研究瘧疾、

There's a lot of psychologically difficult parts of working on the technology.

和根除瘧疾、

But this is the for me the most difficult because I also get from that.

並讓聰明人

And it's like in some real sense, this might be like the last hard thing I ever do.

併為此投入資源。

Well, our, our minds are so organized around scarcity, scarcity of teachers and doctors and good ideas that partly, I do wonder if a generation that grows up without that scarcity will find the philosophical notion of how to organize society and what to do.

當機器對我說

Maybe they'll come up with solution.

"比爾，去打皮球吧，我有消滅瘧疾的任務。

And I, I'm afraid my mind is so shaped around scarcity.

你只是思維遲鈍"。

I, I even have a hard time thinking of it.

那麼這在哲學上就是一個令人困惑的問題。

That's what I tell myself too.

如何組織社會？

And what I truly believe that that although we are giving something up here in some sense, you know, we are going to have things that are smarter than us.

是的，我們要改善教育、

If we can get into this world of post scarcity, we will find new things to do.

但是，如果你走到了這個極端，教育又該怎麼做呢？

They'll feel very different.

我們仍有很大的不確定性。

You know, maybe instead of solving malaria, you're deciding which galaxy you'd like and how, what you're going to do with it.

第一次，可能出現的機會

I'm confident we're never going to run out of problems and we're never going to run out of different ways to find fulfillment and do things for each other and sort of understand how we play our human games for other humans in this way that's going to remain really important.

在未來 20 年內，"全球變暖 "的可能性並非為零。

It's gonna be different for sure.

有很多心理上難以接受的部分

But I think the only way out is through, we just have to go do this thing.

的技術、

It's gonna happen.

但對我來說，這是最困難的、

This is like now an unstoppable technological course, the value is too great and I'm pretty confident, very confident we'll make it work, but it does feel like it's gonna all be so different the way to apply this to certain current problems.

因為我也從中獲得了很多滿足感。

Like, you know, getting kids to tutor and helping to motivate them or discover drugs for Alzheimer's.

你有真正的附加值。

No, I think it's, it's pretty clear how to do that.

在某種意義上

Whether A I can help us, you know, go to war less, be less polarized.

這可能是我做的最後一件難事了。

You think it should drive intelligence and, you know, not being polarized, kind of is common sense and not having more as common sense.

我們的思維都是圍繞著 "匱乏 "而展開的；

But I do think that's an, a lot of people would be skeptical.

缺教師、缺醫生、缺好主意

So I'd love to have people working on the hardest human problems.

在某種程度上，我不知道一代人是否

Uh like whether we get along with each other, you know, I think that would be extremely positive if we thought the A I could contribute to humans getting along with each other.

沒有這種匱乏就能成長

I believe that it will surprise us on the upside there.

會發現哲學概念

The technology will surprise us with how much it can do.

如何組織社會以及該做些什麼。

We've got to find out and see.

也許他們會想出解決辦法。

But I'm very optimistic and I agree with you what a contribution would that be in terms of equity?

恐怕我的思維就是這樣被稀缺所左右、

Technology is often expensive, like a PC or internet connection and it takes time to come down in cost, I guess the costs of running these A I systems, it looks pretty good that the cost per evaluation is going to come down a lot.

我甚至很難想起來。

It's come down an enormous amount already.

我也是這麼告訴自己的、

Uh GP T three, which is the model we've had out the longest and the most time to optimize in the three years.

這也是我真正相信的、

That's three and a little bit years.

雖然我們在這裡放棄了一些東西、

That's been out.

從某種意義上說，我們必須

We've been able to bring the cost down by I think a factor of 40.

比我們更聰明的東西

So for three years time, that's like that's a pretty good start for uh 3.5 we've brought it down.

如果我們能進入這個後匱乏的世界、

I would bet close to 10 at this 0.4 is newer.

我們會找到新的事情可做。

So we haven't had as much time to bring the cost down there, but we, we will continue to bring the cost down.

他們的感覺會截然不同。

I think we are on the steepest curve of cost reduction of ever of any technology.

也許可以替代解決瘧疾問題、

I know way better than Moore's law.

決定你喜歡哪個星系、

And it's not only that we figure out how to make the models more efficient, but also as we understand the research better, we can get more knowledge, we can get more ability into a smaller model.

以及你打算用它來做什麼。

And so I think we are going to drive the cost of intelligence down to so close to zero that it will be just this before and after transformation for society.

我相信我們永遠不會

Like right now, my my basic model of the world is cost of intelligence, cost of energy.

問題，我們永遠不會

Those are the two kind of biggest inputs to like quality of life, particularly for poor people.

無計可施

But overall, if you can drive both of those way down, at the same time, the amount of stuff you can have the amount of like improvement you can, you can deliver for people.

互相幫助，互相理解

It's quite enormous and we are on a curve, at least for intelligence, we will really, really deliver on that promise.

我們如何為其他人玩人類遊戲

But even at the current cost, which again, this is the highest it will ever be and much more than we want for 20 bucks a month, you get a lot of GP T four access and way more than 20 bucks worth of value.

這種方式仍將非常重要。

So I think we're already like, we've come down pretty far, subscribe to un confused me wherever you listen to podcasts.

肯定會有所不同、