Name: "這可能是我做過的最後一件難事| 將我與比爾-蓋茨聯繫起來 (“This might be the last hard thing I ever do” | Unconfuse Me with Bill Gates)
Uploaded: 2024-01-22T04:30:23.000Z
Duration: 6 min 10 s

To me, if you do get to the incredible capability, you know, a giag, I plus, I guess I'd, you know, there's three things I worry about.

One is that a bad guy is in control of the system.

令人難以置信的能力，即 AGI、AGI+、

And so we have good guys who have equally powerful systems that hopefully minimizes that problem.

There's the chance of the system taking control.

And for some reason, I'm, I'm less concerned about that.

I'm glad other people are the one that, that sort of befuddles me as human purpose.

I get a lot of excitement that, hey, I'm good at working on malaria and malaria eradication and getting smart people and a primary source to that.

希望能最大限度地減少這一問題。

When the machine says to me, Bill, go play pickleball.

出於某些原因，我對此不太擔心。

If you're just a slow thinker, then, you know, it is a philosophically confusing thing and how you organize society.

讓我感到困惑的是人類的目的。

But education to do what if, if you get to this extreme, which we still have a big uncertainty.

But for the first time, the chance that might come in the next 20 years is, is not zero.

There's a lot of psychologically difficult parts of working on the technology.

But this is the for me the most difficult because I also get from that.

And it's like in some real sense, this might be like the last hard thing I ever do.

Well, our, our minds are so organized around scarcity, scarcity of teachers and doctors and good ideas that partly, I do wonder if a generation that grows up without that scarcity will find the philosophical notion of how to organize society and what to do.

"比爾，去打皮球吧，我有消滅瘧疾的任務。

And I, I'm afraid my mind is so shaped around scarcity.

I, I even have a hard time thinking of it.

那麼這在哲學上就是一個令人困惑的問題。

And what I truly believe that that although we are giving something up here in some sense, you know, we are going to have things that are smarter than us.

If we can get into this world of post scarcity, we will find new things to do.

但是，如果你走到了這個極端，教育又該怎麼做呢？

You know, maybe instead of solving malaria, you're deciding which galaxy you'd like and how, what you're going to do with it.

I'm confident we're never going to run out of problems and we're never going to run out of different ways to find fulfillment and do things for each other and sort of understand how we play our human games for other humans in this way that's going to remain really important.

在未來 20 年內，"全球變暖 "的可能性並非為零。

But I think the only way out is through, we just have to go do this thing.

This is like now an unstoppable technological course, the value is too great and I'm pretty confident, very confident we'll make it work, but it does feel like it's gonna all be so different the way to apply this to certain current problems.

因為我也從中獲得了很多滿足感。

Like, you know, getting kids to tutor and helping to motivate them or discover drugs for Alzheimer's.

No, I think it's, it's pretty clear how to do that.

Whether A I can help us, you know, go to war less, be less polarized.

這可能是我做的最後一件難事了。

You think it should drive intelligence and, you know, not being polarized, kind of is common sense and not having more as common sense.

我們的思維都是圍繞著 "匱乏 "而展開的；

But I do think that's an, a lot of people would be skeptical.

So I'd love to have people working on the hardest human problems.

在某種程度上，我不知道一代人是否

Uh like whether we get along with each other, you know, I think that would be extremely positive if we thought the A I could contribute to humans getting along with each other.

I believe that it will surprise us on the upside there.

The technology will surprise us with how much it can do.

如何組織社會以及該做些什麼。

But I'm very optimistic and I agree with you what a contribution would that be in terms of equity?

恐怕我的思維就是這樣被稀缺所左右、

Technology is often expensive, like a PC or internet connection and it takes time to come down in cost, I guess the costs of running these A I systems, it looks pretty good that the cost per evaluation is going to come down a lot.

It's come down an enormous amount already.

Uh GP T three, which is the model we've had out the longest and the most time to optimize in the three years.

雖然我們在這裡放棄了一些東西、

We've been able to bring the cost down by I think a factor of 40.

So for three years time, that's like that's a pretty good start for uh 3.5 we've brought it down.

如果我們能進入這個後匱乏的世界、

I would bet close to 10 at this 0.4 is newer.

So we haven't had as much time to bring the cost down there, but we, we will continue to bring the cost down.

I think we are on the steepest curve of cost reduction of ever of any technology.

And it's not only that we figure out how to make the models more efficient, but also as we understand the research better, we can get more knowledge, we can get more ability into a smaller model.

And so I think we are going to drive the cost of intelligence down to so close to zero that it will be just this before and after transformation for society.

Like right now, my my basic model of the world is cost of intelligence, cost of energy.

Those are the two kind of biggest inputs to like quality of life, particularly for poor people.

But overall, if you can drive both of those way down, at the same time, the amount of stuff you can have the amount of like improvement you can, you can deliver for people.

It's quite enormous and we are on a curve, at least for intelligence, we will really, really deliver on that promise.

But even at the current cost, which again, this is the highest it will ever be and much more than we want for 20 bucks a month, you get a lot of GP T four access and way more than 20 bucks worth of value.

 So I think we're already like, we've come down pretty far, subscribe to un confused me wherever you listen to podcasts. 